Pete Buttigieg And John Delaney March 15, 2019March 14, 2019 If some of my posts make you ill, here is a tool to help you find the best hospital. And here are two Democratic dark horses who — like any of the better known candidates — strike me as a thousand times preferable to Trump: John Delaney and Pete Buttigieg. Watching either or both their town halls may give you hope that there are smart, sane, civil people eager to get our country back on track. Who, if they won, would surround themselves with brilliant, competent, equally well-motivated women and men to help. Exactly the opposite of the picture painted in Michael Lewis’s The Fifth Risk. Edward Dougherty: “The Fifth Risk provides a terrific analysis of what can and has gone wrong. I’ve been touting it to all my friends, even sent a few copies out.” Mark Jansen: “Re The Fifth Risk . . . I recommend Lewis’ December 13th interview with Preet Bharara. It’s about as delightful as you can make this depressing Administration, where Lewis talks about the people who are actually working hard in government, for no praise and a fraction of the financial reward they would see in the private sector.” Dan Feder: “Very happy you recommended The Fifth Risk. I loved it. It should be assigned to every high school student.” –> Yes! That’s a great idea. College students, too. An awesome civics course all in itself. It would inspire young people to consider public service — and to vote. Have a great weekend.
The Fifth Risk March 14, 2019March 13, 2019 But first: Should we take partisanship out of the Supreme Court? And give everyone a roughly equal say in its composition, rather than, as now, as much say to the 600,000 good people of Wyoming as to the 40 million good people of California? One proposal would give each party 5 Justices and have those 10 choose 5 more. This would not require a Constitutional Amendment. Read about it here. And now: Have you read or listened to Michael Lewis’s The Fifth Risk? It builds on Chris Christie’s account of Trump’s reluctance to do any transition planning in case he won (despite its being required by law) — nor even to look at the transition plan (the product of 130 serious people) after he won. It turns out, there are disastrous consequences to being completely — willfully — unprepared. And “you don’t know the half of it” — or at least, I didn’t. Like all Lewis’s books, The Fifth Risk is a page-turner. It’s also his most important yet. Yes, Trump’s gotten you “great health care at a tiny fraction of the cost” and a massive tax cut and a $4,000 raise. And, yes, he serves as a model to your children and a beacon to the world. He’s stood up to Canada and denuclearized North Korea. But much as you love him for all that, he’s ignored enormous risks. For example, would your life be different without electricity? (And then there’s this, from the Union of Concerned Scientists: “Our latest report shows that the Trump administration has interfered with or sidelined science in 80 separate incidents over the past two years, demonstrating a pattern of hostility to facts—and posing a serious threat to public health and the environment.”) Science, schmience. Who’re you gonna trust — this guy? Or “scientists?”
Reader Feedback: How About A Stock Update? March 13, 2019March 13, 2019 Pam W. from Texas: “Thanks for the Stacey Abrams link. Her book — Minority Leader: How To Build Your Future and Make Real Change — is a great read, especially for teens. Consider gifting to a school library.” –> Great idea. Mark Jansen: “My favorite iPhone tip, which gives me joy: When you’re editing text and need to move the cursor around, normally you stab where you want the cursor to go, thus covering up the very target of your stabbing, only to find the cursor has actually landed a few characters off from where you wanted. Instead…hold down the Space Bar for a moment. The ‘keys’ go blank and the keyboard becomes a ‘trackpad’ as you slide your thumb from the Space Bar up and around, moving the cursor precisely where you want. It’s apparently been in iOS for years, but like your reboot tip is not well-documented.” –> Who knew! And here’s something else I finally discovered: the faster you talk, the less bad Siri’s transcription will be. She’s a computer. She doesn’t like it when you talk to her as if she were three. Dennis H.: “How about a stock update? BKUTK is up 36%. GLDD and FANH are kicking butt! We sold a few things in the fall so I have some cash. What are you thinking these days.” –> BKUTK remains undervalued but a very sleepy long-term play, with management more eager to be a community pillar than a shareholder delight. (Along with its other merits, this approach doubtless inspires valuable customer loyalty.) I’ve held all mine — not least because our shares sell for about 20% less than the voting stock (BKUT) yet give us the same dividend and, should the bank eventually be acquired, the same ultimate value. Last I looked, BKUT was $580; our BKUTK, $495. So we get ours on sale. I wouldn’t rush to buy more here; but would have tried to buy more when I saw it dip down to $420 recently, were it not that I have a lot already. GLDD seems finally to have come into its own. Perhaps a good time to sell half? And lament doing so if it ever hits $15? I’ve likewise sold half my FANH. There’s a case to be made for a much higher price at some point — but also what appears to be a persistent short-seller claiming it’s all a fraud. This may not be a bad time to be holding some cash for when the inevitable bear market hits — whether a few days or a few years from now. Meanwhile, YTRA, suggested here January 1 at $4, got a buy-out offer Monday at $7. It’s not final, and the market seems not to believe it will happen; but if it goes through, we will have made 70% or so in a few months . . . and might want to hold Ebix stock instead of cash if that winds up being the offer. (I’ll write more about that if the deal materializes.) Clemente Franco: “With all due respect, I think you fail to see the light. There is a whole segment of the population that is pissed off at both the Democrats and Republicans, for good reason, and for whom Trump was a middle finger to both parties. Albeit, many of these folks are racist, as is Trump, but the Democratic party lost them. While Schumer was hanging out with hedge fund managers giving them a tax break (and what a break it was), he was losing a lot of people. While Clinton was out-Republican-ing Republicans on Welfare reform, he lost a lot of people. When Gore chose Lieberman (really?), he lost a lot of people. When Hillary called black kids super predators, she lost a lot of people. . . . Instead of thinking that people are stupid for not voting for the Democratic party or for not coming out to vote, own up to it and admit the Democratic party has failed to convince them to come back. You are using the Naders, Perots and Schultzes of this world as an excuse for that failure. You are out of touch. And for you to claim that Mr. Schultz’s desire to run is a disastrous idea is the height of arrogance. To think that somehow you know more than he because you have been the party’s bookkeeper and raised money for them? Please share more finance posts. I usually agree with you there. Thank you.” –> There’s a lot here I disagree with, but I appreciate the feedback.
Eat Drink And Be Merry? . . . March 12, 2019March 10, 2019 . . . or, instead, read The Uninhabitable Earth, as reviewed here (“apocalypse now”), and save humanity. Do you switch off lights as you leave the room? Have you cut down on meat? Do you keep the thermostat at higher in the summer and than the winter? Or do you not worry about any of that because (a) you’re a selfish pig or (b) you’ve allowed people to persuade you it’s all a liberal hoax. If the former, all I can say is: I agree. If the latter, you owe it to yourself — and your kids and their kids — to read this book. Of course, in your case and mine, to the extent we don’t do all we should, it’s likely neither (a) nor (b). It’s that — (c) — while we know humanity faces an existential crisis, it’s hard to get focused the way we do when a hurricane or wildfires approach. We just can’t imagine that enough other people will make these sacrifices, so why should we be the patsies? Hamburgers taste good! All The Uninhabitable Earth asks is that we consider what lies ahead . . . and then, perhaps, reassess our response. Spread the word. Save mankind. Seriously. This is not a drill.
Three Podcasts And Those Calls From Belarus March 10, 2019March 10, 2019 If you’ve been getting endless hang-up calls from Belarus, the British Virgin Islands, Slovenia — wherever — here’s why. (They hope you’ll call back and rack up phone charges.) If you can deal with a heavy French accent, listen to Tina Brown’s conversation with Bernard-Henri Lévy about his new book, The Empire and the Five Kings: America’s Abdication and the Fate of the World. It will redouble your commitment to saving democracy. How — to take just one tiny piece of it — can we have abandoned the Kurds? The exact sort of religiously tolerant, women-respecting democracy we hope all Muslim states might one day be. And here’s another of Tina’s podcasts, her conversation last month with Hillary Clinton. Whether or not you agree she would have made a great president, defending American exceptionalism and pushing back against the journalist-murdering autocrats Trump loves — and whether or not you can forgive her for not fully appreciating the enormity of Putin’s sneak attack that kept her from winning the popular vote by a wide enough margin to avoid the tragedy we now find ourselves in — her intellect and unique life experience may interest you. But she’s not running for president again, not least because a majority of Americans don’t want someone in his or her seventies, they are looking for new leadership. Stacey Abrams is probably not running for president either — Senate is more likely — but if you listen to this podcast with Chris Hayes, you may join her fan club, as I long ago did, and see one more example of youthful, sane, civil Democratic leadership. I know three podcasts could take almost your whole day. But desperate times call for disparate measures.* *I know: doesn’t quite work. But I couldn’t resist.
How Arthur Finkelstein Ruined The World March 8, 2019March 7, 2019 Read The Unbelievable Story Of The Plot Against George Soros (thanks Pete) — which could just as well have been titled, “How Evil Prevails.” This is not some fringe conspiracy theory, just jarring facts. Arthur Finkelstein, Roy Cohn, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Senator Joe McCarthy, Donald Trump . . . of these, only Finkelstein is the focus here. But it’s hard not to see the connections. To take you to a happier place: View these amazing photographs. (Thanks, Glenn.) Binge on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and/or A Very English Scandal. Have a great weekend.
You Do Know He Never WANTED To Be President, Right? March 7, 2019March 7, 2019 . . . as Frank Bruni explained a while back. George Will adds: “What a misery it must be to be Donald Trump.” But now, the important stuff: Have a new Apple iPhone without the home button? Then in addition to “if lost, please email me@wherever.com for a reward,” you should tape THIS reminder to the back of your phone: “If the screen suddenly goes black even though you have lots of battery left . . . or if you need to reboot for any other reason . . . just press the UP volume button, then the DOWN volume button, then hold the ON/OFF button for a few seconds until it starts up again.” If I had known that, I would have saved 12 hours’ worry and an hour of actual travel time. At first, I was overcome with gratitude when the Apple genius took 15 seconds to “fix” my phone. But my gratitude — my awe! — were soon mixed with annoyance that crucial little secrets like this do not come engraved on the back of the phone. Question: Is it still weight-watching if you eat four 70-calorie English Toffee Crunch ice cream bars one after another? And how is it possible that they be 70 calories per bar, as advertised on the carton, when one serving — two bars — is listed as 150 calories? Is this “weight-watching for the innumerate?” Have I been reduced to copy-editing ice cream containers? It’s been a while since I veered off into the culinary — long-time readers know I am slowly simmering Volume One of Cooking Like A Guy™ — so let me just note two things I’ve recently learned. First, not only is broccoli good for you — broccoli stalks are just as nutritious as the florets. So snack on the florets, raw; but boil the stalks to eat hot or cold with salt and pepper. You will live longer and healthier, for which I expect credit. Second, to save energy and water, while you’re boiling those broccoli stalks, gently drop in a dozen eggs. After 13 minutes, remove the broccoli and dump out most of the water. Refill the pot with ice water . . . peel the eggs (this is the only time it will be quick and easy to do) . . . and place them in a water-filled container. You now have a dozen snacks in the refrigerator that will stay good quite a long time. I had heard of TB12 but not PB2. You know one of my hobbies is eating expired food. People ask how long I’ve owned my condo and I say I’m not sure — I date it by the Kraft Fat-Free Italian Caesar Dressing in the refrigerator, “best purchased by October 6, 2001” but still good. So I must have had the apartment since 2000. Americans waste way too much food. Which is why it killed me to discover that some 12-year-old peanut butter I had been storing in a cupboard for a rainy day had turned to something that looked fine and spread fine but had taken on the properties of metallic paste. I threw it out. Yes! Me! A friend, upon hearing this, told me about PB2. “TB12?” I asked him? He’s a huge Tom Brady fan. “No, PB2 — powdered peanut butter. It’s great.” IT’s at least not bad — I’ve tried some. My sense is that it could easily last 20 years. Let me know your thoughts.
Radical Inequality March 6, 2019March 2, 2019 David Leonhardt: I keep hearing that the Democratic presidential candidates are suggesting “radical” economic ideas. It’s not true. The candidates are not seeking radical change with their main proposals — like Elizabeth Warren’s tax on wealth or Kamala Harris’s big anti-poverty tax plan. They are instead trying to undo some of the radical increases in economic inequality over the past 40 years. My column today makes the full version of this case and explains why keeping the version of the United States that we have long known — optimistic, future-oriented and more powerful than any other nation — depends on undoing extreme inequality. If you missed this last month, take a look: “What’s Really Radical? Not Taxing the Rich: It’s time to reverse the extreme upward redistribution of the last 40 years.”
Losing Brazil; Winning Here March 5, 2019March 5, 2019 [I am in a foreign land this week with abundant rum but uncertain Internet access. If anything dramatic has happened — Pence resigned? life on Mars? — this post will seem weirdly oblivious. It was pre-posted before I left to honor the terms of your subscription.] I found these two pieces on Brazil’s rapid descent dismaying: How Police Violence Paves The Way To Authoritarianism: “Brazil’s new president, Jair Bolsonaro, believes the only good criminal is a dead one. Many Brazilians agree.” Brazil Is About To Show The World How A Modern Democracy Collapses: “Far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is a threat to Brazilian democracy — and a model for authoritarianism that leaders around the world will follow.” But my main concern is helping to prevent the collapse of our own increasingly shaky, increasingly disrespected democracy. Part of our job, as I see it, is to channel the dismay and alarm many people feel into logical, constructive action. So when a centi-millionaire recently sent me an article declaring, in effect, a state of emergency — he sends me really good stuff like this once or twice a week — I replied: Appalling – no? Thanks for sending. Ready to help? I’ve attached a big project we just launched to recruit 1000 college juniors now, in 7 swing states, to learn to be organizers, register new voters on and around campus, and then throw themselves into the 2020 campaign when they graduate next year and we have a nominee. Join me in funding this? I’ve been asking his help for years. I thought this project — Organizing Corps 2020 — might finally push him over the edge. He replied: Absolutely not. I hate big, undifferentiated projects where my cash would go into the vast and bottomless mosh pit of the Democratic Party. I am much more motivated to try to get rid of both Devin Nuñes and Kevin McCarthy – both Californians from the Central Valley. I LOATHE both of them. They are so antithetical to what this state stands for. Devin Nuñes is a partisan apologist and enabler for Trump – so appalling his “midnight run to the White House.” And that pathetic sycophant, Kevin McCarthy – I cannot bear to see him standing behind the Buffoon-in-Chief emotionlessly endorsing this traitor President. However, if cogent political analysis shows that either or both are unbeatable in 2020, I’m happy to look at other key congressional races to see where we can make a difference. I want to see the differentiated results of any “investments” I make in the political process. So you can see he’s (a) real smart; (b) passionate; and (c) did I mention he’s a centi-millionaire? I replied: I share your view of Nunes and McCarthy – and so many others. I don’t share your view that defeating them is a top priority. Now that they’re in the minority, they’re largely irrelevant. It would FEEL good to get rid of them – I am totally with you there — but isn’t it a million times more important to get back the White house and the Senate gavels? But even if the main goal IS to defeat Nunes, et al (or maybe put them in jail?), I also don’t share your view that the most effective way to beat them is by targeting their races. Money to a specific congressional race is largely spent on advertising. It makes the candidates feel good. It makes their supporters feel good. But advertising doesn’t inspire many people to register to vote . . . or to turn out to vote . . . or to switch tribes. The leveraged thing to do, I think, is to invest in organizers, early, who will have time to recruit and train volunteers (free labor!), who will have time to register millions of new voters and organize what ultimately becomes a massive blue turn-out. Because once one of our folks does get to the polls, he or she will likely vote for ALL our candidates. Whether or not they saw any of their ads on TV. Getting voters to the polls gives us their vote for president, senator, governor, congressperson, state assemblyman, state senator . . . all of it. So the attached $10 million plan to recruit and train 1,000 college juniors to become organizers . . . ramping up registration and turn-out among young people and minorities in 7 key states . . . strikes me as really well thought out and vastly more leveraged and powerful than dumping $10 million more into a sea of TV ads in a couple of congressional races. Not, of course, that it’s the only thing that needs doing. In the context of a multi-billion-dollar election cycle, $10M is a drop in the bucket. But I think THIS drop will be far more potent than most . . . and in close races in those 7 swing states could make the difference. We lost the Electoral College last time, as you well know, by just 77,000 votes in three of those 7 states. What am I missing? No reply, as of yet.
Student Loan Refinancing March 4, 2019March 2, 2019 I had heard of SoFi and, more recently, Common Bond . . . but it turns out there are at least 10 alternatives worth considering. (And an eleventh, at least for federal student loan debt: just elect Democrats. They have long called for allowing borrowers to refinance at today’s lower rates, as a homeowner might refinance a high-interest mortgage — see, for example, page 28 of the 2016 Democratic Party platform, “Providing Relief From Crushing Student Debt.” The Republicans, in their wisdom, have refused to allow refinancing.) [Tech Nostalgia ON] Jeff S.: “Sorry if this is unintelligible. I’m nearly blind from the glare of my 32 inch monitor. That’s a little surprising because it should be broken by now. I’ve been throwing things at it. Because of Quicken 2019. It’s the latest in a long, sad series of Quicken releases over the past few decades. This newest version is bigger!, slower!, and features more dancing baloney than ever before. On my 4-core computer running at multi-gigahertz speeds, it takes 13 seconds and 7 mouse clicks to make a minor edit to a transaction. I really miss MYM. Even after all these years, I still think fondly of it. I ran my business on MYM (with a Mac IIcx), and I can’t remember it ever crashing or giving the wrong answer. Which is not something that can be said about Quicken.” → What fun all that was. (And, yes, I still use MYM.) (And, no, there’s no way to revive it.) Hats off to Jerry Rubin and all the other geniuses who took my wish list and made it our software. And to Chris Lee and his team who did Mac-MYM. [Tech Nostalgia OFF]