Anticipation Is Half The Fun April 17, 2021April 17, 2021 I suggested RECAF at $2.50 a month ago; Thursday, they announced encouraging news. The Namibians are thrilled; and I have to say that to the extent the world will still need oil and gas for another decade, I’d just as soon some of the wealth flow to the good people of Africa. Also, the stock closed at $6.10 Friday, giving us a 140% return in a month. You will be forgiven if you sold some. I sold an eighth of mine at $5.72 (in an IRA, with no taxes to muddy the decision) — and hope happily to regret having done so. RECAF has a license to drill on acreage nearly the size of Switzerland. It could all amount to naught — or not. Maybe one of the majors will pay $5 billion for it one day, giving us a further six-fold gain. The reader who turned me onto RECAF writes: The news couldn’t have been much better at this stage of exploration. That said, I’m a bit disappointed with the stock price action. I’m looking for more realistic valuations in the coming days and weeks. I see no reason we’re not worth $10-15 right now. But what do I know, I make beer for a living? Famous last words, to be sure. But though he makes beer for a living, he apparently knows a top-flight geologist. And if you did buy a few shares at $2.50 with money you can truly afford to lose . . . isn’t this fun? Which brings me to BOREF and PRKR. What do they have in common? Both are gambles that require a ton of patience. Lucky for you, I only started writing about PRKR a couple of years ago — nothing compared to the nearly 22 years I’ve been writing about BOREF. (Back then, I could run a four-minute mile and leap tall buildings with a single bound; today, I need help finding the Roomba.) As recently noted, PRKR just might wind up being more than just a collection of potentially valuable lawsuits. They have bigger plans. So those of us who’ve paid anywhere from a dime to well over a buck a share to place our bets — with money we can truly afford to lose — could see a big gain one day. “Anticipation is half the fun!” Even though, I grant, you can’t eat anticipation. But as Revlon founder Charles Revson used to explain, he wasn’t selling cosmetics; he was selling hope. My hope with PRKR is to sell maybe 10% of my shares close to $2 as the oft-delayed Qualcomm trial eventually draws near . . . and then a good chunk at $5 or $6 after a hoped-for favorable verdict . . . and maybe the final 20% years from now at an even higher price, when the company has hit big not just with its lawsuits, but with the other technology it’s developed. None of this may ever come to pass! But it’s fun to think about. In the case of Borealis, the hope is that WheelTug will win FAA approval and begin to fly, eventually making a ton of money. A lot of airlines are lined up to give it a “Twirl” (as WheelTug calls one of its time-saving gate-area maneuvers). Here’s this past week’s news from Hyderabad: WheelTug To Improve Airline Efficiency. (What? you don’t read Telangana Today?) And as if Twirls™ and Twists™ weren’t enough, the company envisions the possibility of even broader horizons someday. Given that Chinese-controlled rare-earth metals are designed into many electric motors — but not required by the Borealis technology — one WheelTug executive asserts: “Just as fracking broke the criticality of OPEC, WheelTug‘s little motors can break one of the key Chinese strangleholds on the development of modern electric systems.” A statement that bold will confirm the certainty some of my friends have that these people are delusional; and strengthen the resolve others of us have to hang on to see whether maybe — just maybe — they can pull it off. With the entire company valued by the market at $35 million (5 million shares trading at $7 each) — half what a Beeple sold for at Christie’s the other day — I like our odds. But only for money I can truly afford to lose. Have a great weekend!
Lowering The Temperature On Tax Day April 15, 2021April 16, 2021 The main reason to watch “American Insurrection” is that you don’t want to see our government — flawed as it is — overthrown. Better to reform it in a peaceful way. [The unrelated reason I bring it to your attention is the little 1X you’ll see next to the CC closed-captioning icon below the film. Click, and you can watch in 1.25X or 1.5X or even faster speeds, cutting 84 minutes down to under an hour, as I did. I’ve long touted this feature for Audible.com listeners — I regularly listen to books at 1.2X or 1.4X. Time is money after all. But until recently I’d not realized YouTube (and most podcasts) offer the same option. On YouTube, click the little “gearbox” (or the tri-bar menu icon) to change playback speed.] One of the things in deep need of reform is the tax code. Which is why I commend to you — just-released and wonderfully readable — Tax The Rich: How Lies, Loopholes and Lobbyists Make The Rich Even Richer. Don’t worry, Ken Griffin; when we’re done taxing you, you’ll still be able to afford your $238 million New York City apartment, your $122 million mansion near Buckingham Palace, and your $100 million Hamptons estate. Tax The Rich and “American Insurrection” mesh, because along with grotesque inequality, anger has been rising in the land — on both the left and the right. I’ve got a message — a warning really — for my fellow rich people, both in the United States and around the world. You cannot continue to sit by and enjoy your riches while the rest of the world falls further into poverty and chaos. We have seen the results of gross inequality over and over again. Dysfunctional societies don’t end well for rich people either. Yes, of course we should move the corporate tax-rate at least partway back up to put millions of Americans to work at good jobs revitalizing our infrastructure — as argued yesterday. Yes of course we should embrace the Tax Excessive CEO Pay Act — as also argued. And why is the estate tax on billionheirs so much lower now than it used to be? And the loopholes! You may not agree with everything in the book — a couple of the suggested reforms strike me as well-intentioned but unworkable. But I think you’ll agree with most of it; learn some things you hadn’t known; and enjoy the cartoons. Let’s reform the tax code, revitalize our economy, expand the middle class, and avoid the insurrection, let alone the revolution. Watch the film. Read the book. Work to lower the anger — and despair — on both sides of the political divide. And don’t worry! Ken Griffin will still be able to afford his $238 million New York City apartment, his $122 million mansion near Buckingham Palace, and his $100 million place at the beach. Happy April 15th. (Postponed to May 17th, but even so.)
$300 Billion Here And $300 Billion There, And . . . April 14, 2021April 14, 2021 South Dakota’s John Thune — the number two Senate Republican — was on Fox News Sunday morning talking about Biden’s proposed $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill: I think the tax increases that are included in here are something that would be very crushing to the economy. You’re talking about increasing the rate from 21% to 28% or a 33% tax increase on businesses in this country who are looking to create jobs. . . . There’s so much wrong with that statement. Putting the top corporate rate halfway back up to the 35% it was under Bill Clinton would not “crush” the economy — in Clinton’s eight years, 18.6 million private sector jobs were created! The economy did great! And so did wealthy people, even though he hiked their personal tax rate as well. The economy didn’t do terribly in the Fifties, Sixties, Seventies, and Eighties, either. Remember? Back then, the corporate rate was around 50%. (Here’s a history of the corporate tax rate, with a table by year at the end; and here’s job creation over those years.) Because corporate taxes are levied only on profits — and half a loaf is better than none — business owners try to make profits no matter where the rate is set. New investments will be made, and new workers hired, if they promise profits. Low rates won’t cause hiring if the employer doesn’t need more employees. I do get that most big companies arrange things to avoid taxes — sometimes by going overseas. But Trump’s cuts didn’t bring them back; and Janet Yellen has a better idea: instead of joining the race to the bottom, let’s fashion a global minimum corporate tax rate. Ours is not the only government that needs tax revenue. Redirecting $300 billion a year to infrastructure for eight years, as the President proposes, far from crushing the economy, will boost it. It would be crazy not to make this investment! Think of it like World War II, when no serious person argued against raising taxes and going into debt to win the war. This time, we’ll be raising taxes and going into debt not to blow things up, but hiring millions of blue collar workers to build things that will last for decades and enhance our productivity, our health, and our prosperity. Three hundred billion here and three hundred billion there . . . and pretty soon you have a robust, revitalized, 21st Century infrastructure. It’s past time to get the country back into shape. Here’s a novel approach to funding infrastructure, brainchild of Regeneron CEO Leonard Schleifer, that I’ve posted before. If we find we need to go bigger than $2.25 trillion, we should add it to the mix. A face-saving way to get Manchin and others on board might be to settle for 26.75% instead of 28% — but make up the difference by throwing the Tax Excessive CEO Pay Act into the mix. It would send all the right Democratic signals. The extra corporate tax would be VOLUNTARY. To avoid it, a company would need only to pay its workers more and/or its CEO less. Almost everyone agrees inequality in the U.S. has reached obscene, dangerous levels. This would help to push things back toward sanity; and to the extent it didn’t, it would raise much needed additional revenue. A win either way. Speaking of inequality (and, yesterday, injustice), listen to Planet Money’s story of How Jacob Loud’s Land Was Lost. Gripping, maddening — but ultimately hopeful, because years of hard work have righted this wrong in 17 states, including 8 in the South.
Justice, Music — And Wow! April 13, 2021April 12, 2021 THE COURT: E.J. Dione responds to Justice Breyer. Well worth the read. (Thanks, Glenn!) I would add that our goal is not to expand — let alone “pack” — the Court, but, as I’ve argued before, to depoliticize it . . . a goal that I think a great many on both sides, including the Justices themselves, would at least privately agree is worthy. Mozart at the Hollywood Bowl 100 years later. (Thanks, Ed!) I really don’t get outdoors enough. (Thanks, Alan.)
An App You’ll Want To Check Out April 12, 2021April 11, 2021 Marc Fest (my elevator pitch pal): “Expedia just refunded all the money for my Virgin Atlantic business class ticket to Germany (I’ve decided to go over Xmas instead) without my having to spend a single minute haggling. (Expedia is notorious for trying to stick you with ‘airline credits.’) It’s all thanks to donotpay.com, an AI-powered ‘robo lawyer’ system created by then Stanford student Josh Browder. First I thought its promises were too good to be true. But I checked them out, signed up — $36/year — and it worked! They also got Expedia to refund a British Airways ticket I canceled last year because of Covid. All in one week! I emailed a customer support person to clarify something and she could not have been more proactive. It all was a breeze. Surreal almost. A great example of leveling the playing field between consumers and corporations. And a glimpse into the future of litigation and democratizing legal resources.” → Depending on how you value your time, that $36 could be worth gambling next time you have a hassle donotpay.com might be able to help with. ♦ This includes fighting parking tickets and traffic tickets . . . canceling subscriptions and trial subscriptions . . . creating legal documents . . . combating robocalls . . . suing to collect debts . . . and lots more. ♦ Check out the website and/or download donotpay from your phone’s app store. ♦ If you’re nervous about sharing your Expedia password (or whichever other), just change it once the issue has been resolved. Here’s an interview with the young entrepreneur, son of the amazing Bill Browder. It just builds and builds. When the interview ends, they play a recording of someone trying to disconnect his cable service. We’ve all been there. It’s maddening. Josh Browder to the rescue. Ken Doran: “You write: <<I live better than any emperor ever did prior to the invention of air conditioning and the Internet.>> It’s also worth mentioning that anything resembling modern indoor plumbing was rare before the 20th Century. And by the way, there are some quite satisfactory wines even below your $10-$14 price range.” → Yes! Two-buck chuck! BONUS: Coke v. Pepsi As people choose which to drink based on whether want fraud-free voting made easier or more difficult, this classic Pepsi commercial reminds us how different the two beverages are. (The main difference: Coke is headquartered in Atlanta, and so felt the need to weigh in on the Georgia law.) I like ’em both, but hate the law.
Demented Agents; Brain HQ April 9, 2021April 8, 2021 A friend helped fund Agents of Chaos. Watch the trailer and you may well choose to stream the whole thing. Q-Anon followers will not read this — or change their minds if they do (see Wednesday) — but it might give YOU a laugh: An Open Letter to Trump Supporters, From Reality, by Bleeding Heart Liberal Marine. Have you done your BrainHQ today? You know the 10-year 2,800 patient study I keep linking you to that showed a 48% reduction in the number of patients suffering from dementia? With just 14 hours of BrainHQ? (Imagine the reduction had it been 15 minutes a week all 10 years — 130 hours.) Now comes $44 million from the NIH for a 7,600-patient follow-on. Which this taxpayer (and BrainHQ shareholder) applauds because preventing dementia would save untold billions and misery. From the press release: More than 100 published studies of the exercises in BrainHQ have shown benefits, including gains in standard measures of cognition (attention, speed, memory, executive function), in standard measures of quality of life (mood, confidence and control, managing stress, health-related quality of life) and in real world activities (gait, balance, driving, everyday cognition, maintaining independence, healthcare costs). BrainHQ is now offered, without charge, as a benefit by leading national and 5-star Medicare Advantage plans and by hundreds of clinics, libraries, and communities. Consumers can also try BrainHQ for free. Tommy: “Two brief things – since you don’t read fast. First (from Thursday’s post), why drink cheap wine? If you like it, sure. But you (like myself) must have done the math — divided your net worth by the likely number of years you have left to live — and realize you’ll never be able to spend it all anyway. Why not splurge a little? Second, what can I do with the extra $200K that has built up in my checkbook? I’m one of those very fortunate Americans who has saved so much money in this pandemic thing that it’s approaching the FDIC insured limit. I don’t need more money in stocks, though I might do that if the market wasn’t reaching an all time high every day. Wait until a dip?” → Good point on the wine, although (a) there’s lots of fine-tasting wine in the $10-$14 range; (b) I haven’t ruled out living forever. I do shplurge more than I used to. I live better than any king, tsar or emperor ever did prior to the invention of air conditioning and the Internet. But every dollar needlessly spent on myself is a dollar (well, cumulatively, $10,000 or $100,000) that could mean so much more to at least half of humanity. Except for an accident of birth, I could have BEEN in that half. For $35,000, I could upgrade my kitchen – or build a small school in Nicaragua. So I feel a little guilty when I splurge. Then again, aren’t guilty pleasures the best kind? So it all works. On your $200K: put 10% here . . . keep $100K in reserve . . . and split the remaining $80K – IF YOU CAN TRULY AFFORD TO LOSE IT – between PRKR and CNF. Bearing in mind, always, that free advice is worth what you pay for it. Have a great weekend!
Barney’s Excellent Advice April 8, 2021April 8, 2021 I’m sitting at dinner with six amazing young friends and one amazing older friend, Barney Frank, then chair of the House Financial Services Committee. All of us of like progressive mind; all of us in T-shirts on Fire Island. Super informal. Having consumed a glass or two of value-priced wine (you know me), I am making some political point we all agree on — waving my arms around with perhaps a tad of flourish and hyperbole (think columnist Dave Barry but not as funny) — happily holding court (it is my value-priced dinner table, after all), when Barney cuts me off — “No!” If you’ve never been on the wrong end of Barney’s disapproval, let me explain what happens: You suddenly want to die. You know he’s smarter. And that even if he’s wrong (this has happened!), it’s not likely to end well. But he was not wrong. “Don’t oversell!” By exaggerating the otherwise airtight case, he explained, I had weakened it, handing the opposition a factual error easy to seize upon. That there was no opposition at the table — that I was just having fun and would not have presented the case the same way in public — was something I foolishly, if lamely, voiced, opening the door for Barney to lambaste me two or three times more in different ways, as I slunk deeper and deeper into my value-priced folding chair. I tell you this because it’s surely a mistake I still make from time to time — and that we progressives make too often. (Our friends on the other side are significantly worse — e.g., when they argue Trump won by a landslide or that Democrats drink the blood of children or that we want “open borders” or to take away everybody’s guns.) I thought of this when I heard our wonderful, effective, decent president call Georgia’s new voter-suppression law “worse than Jim Crow” — “Jim Eagle.” As noted Monday, here’s What Georgia’s Voting Law Really Does. It does not require prospective voters to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar (Jim Crow), let alone “worse.” Indeed, the opposition can fairly say that the law allows more days of early voting than states like New York. So while it would have made for a less crisp sound bite, would it have been better to home in on a couple of the truly awful provisions of the law and/or say, “C’mon, man. Does anybody think Georgia Republicans passed this law to make it easier to vote? More likely for the will of all Georgians to be heard? Give me a break!” Or take the “19 million jobs” that the President’s proposed infrastructure bill would create. As reported by the Washington Post — which fact-checks Democrats as well as Republicans — the real number of incremental jobs may be more like 2.7 million. Which is still a lot of jobs. And, whether the number impresses you or not, wouldn’t it be great to have good roads and rural broadband and a smart grid and more competitive R&D and modernized schools and ports and airports — and sewers that didn’t back up and bridges that didn’t collapse? There is no need to oversell. I don’t blame the President for any of this. He is a busy guy. He relies on staff to read the Georgia voter-suppression bill and Moody’s job-creation analysis. And I can sympathize with the staffers who, pressed for time and filled with passion, put these exaggerations into the Party talking points. As I say, I’ve overstated a case or two myself. I’ve jumped to a conclusion or two before first checking the underlying facts. But this is not some casual dinner at the beach. In my view, we are on the right side of almost every policy issue. The facts — unadorned — are our friend. I’m hoping all who share progressive views will heed Barney’s excellent advice.
The Latest From Mystic Mag April 7, 2021April 6, 2021 One of you was kind enough to send me this from the site MysticMag (which features “Best Psychics” on its menu): What is QAnon? Everything You Need to Know About the Conspiracy in 2021. To say I was not expecting much would . . . well, pick your own metaphor. But do you know what? It would do even the Washington Post proud.
Boehner And More April 6, 2021April 5, 2021 PRKR‘s website has become a bit more expansive, explaining where it’s been and — of greater interest to those of us taking this gamble — where it hopes to go. It may wind up being more than just a valuable collection of lawsuits. CURED, a documentary I helped produce, is streaming through Sunday night. Watch the trailer to see if it’s of interest? BOEHNER. The former Republican House Speaker’s book is excerpted here. E.g.: “There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless asshole who thinks he is smarter than everyone else. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Senator Ted Cruz.” SMART. Treasury Secretary Yellen proposes a global corporate tax floor to help all governments raise needed revenue and curb the global race to the bottom. GEORGIA. Yes, they will have more early voting than some blue states, but here’s What Georgia’s Voting Law Really Does.
The Details Can Be A Little Challenging To Work Out, But . . . April 5, 2021April 4, 2021 . . . it’s not rocket science: Do all the good you can, By all the means you can, In all the ways you can, In all the places you can, At all the times you can, To all the people you can, As long as ever you can. John Wesley, 1703-1791, the original Methodist Or as Barack Obama put it even more simply: Be kind and be useful. No? Speaking of someone both kind and useful, I just finished listening (at 1.5X) to Steve Wozniak’s autobiography. The guy who co-founded Apple with Steve Jobs? Loved it. Have a great week!