Ugh. September 30, 2020 Should I even post anything after that? It’s so deeply sad to see how low we’ve sunk. And was it because Joe Biden is a thug and a bully? Because Chris Wallace lacks basic decency? No? Well then, who else was on stage? Do you think Angela Merkel or Justin Trudeau watched last night with delight? I can’t picture that. But Putin? If we all vote, we can end this nightmare. Biden will hire terrific, honorable, capable people to keep us safe and point us toward a brighter future. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
Tom Replies September 29, 2020September 29, 2020 Blind-copying me and the rest of his list yesterday: Hello Everyone, Be sure to read the Andrew Tobias column today, https://andrewtobias.com/have-fun-storming-wisconsin/, as I received honorable mention. Of all the topics to criticize our beloved DJT about is his dislike of the military. The military will vote in very high percentages for President Trump, who has rebuilt our defenses following the anti-military, anti-Constitution Barack Hussein Obama allowed its depletion. Unnamed sources as usual were the source of the NYT article, just as unnamed sources are quoted about the Donald’s taxes. BTW, I heard from reliable sources that Andrew Tobias has said he thinks Joe Biden has very serious mental issues. I will be glad to divulge my sources when the NYT exposes the 187 unnamed sources that have contributed to unfavorable articles about President Trump. Of course, Tom has heard no such thing. I guess his point is to ridicule anything learned from “reliable sources.” I.e., just as you shouldn’t believe what he is pretending to have heard, neither (he seems to be saying) should you believe what professional journalists — with the approval, upon review, of their editors — report they have heard from “reliable sources.” Information fed to Facebook and Twitter from Putin operatives working hard to divide us may be credible; but from Pulitzer-prize-winning journalists, no Trump criticism can be believed if the sources, fearing retribution, won’t go on the record. That seems to be Tom’s point. Yet neither can Tom accept anything Trump-negative from sources who are willing to be named. Tom won’t read Michael Cohen’s book — Cohen was an eye-witness to and co-conspirator in many of Trump’s misdeeds. He’s got tapes and documents. Tom won’t read Bob Woodward’s meticulously sourced book. He won’t read Robert Cardillo’s first-hand account. He won’t read that statement signed by more than a thousand Republican and Democratic former federal prosecutors. (“Each of us believes that the conduct of President Trump described in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report [represent] multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice.”) He won’t read this round-up of named Republicans who have declared their opposition to Trump. Or this hugely damning letter signed by 70 former Republican national security officials endorsing Biden. To Tom, none of it matters. It would just be too humiliating to admit Trump is not the right man to lead the country and the world. That’s the box Trump has gotten himself and his followers into. He never expected to be president. But one thing led to another. (As to Tom’s assertion that “the military will vote in very high percentages for President Trump,” I sent him this Military Times poll showing Biden LEADING Trump – and noted that it was taken BEFORE it became known Trump had called soldiers “losers” and “suckers” for choosing to serve.) Though in most ways I’m sure bright, nice, ethical people, Tom and Carl will not change their minds. Let Trump walk down Fifth Avenue shooting people and they’ll still be with him. So this is what we’re up against. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
Have Fun Storming Wisconsin! September 28, 2020September 28, 2020 But first . . . Robert Cardillo: “I served under six presidents — four Republicans, two Democrats — only one has failed to serve U.S. national security interests.” . . . President Donald Trump’s decision to rely upon the word of dictators like Vladimir Putin is an unprecedented betrayal of his oath to the Constitution. Our current president bases his decisions on his instincts, and his instincts are based upon a personal value proposition — what’s in it for me? As a Commander in Chief, President Trump comes up tragically short. . . . Tom and Carl simply don’t care. “Benghazi!” they reply. (Nine Republican-led investigations found no wrongdoing.) Her emails! (No harm done; and, in any event: she’s not the one running.) Hunter! (He’s not the one running, either, and — unlike Trump’s son-in-law, who leveraged U.S. relations with Qatar for hundreds of millions of dollars — he won’t be put in charge of everything.) The dossier! (Every Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee agrees: “the Russia thing” was not a hoax, not a witch hunt. The FBI and Mueller investigations were justified.) Carl and Tom are too dug in to consider Cardillo’s assessment. Too dug in to more than chuckle at a supposed billionaire paying $750 a year in taxes. Yet there must be millions of others who have at least the nagging feeling Trump is not the man they’d hoped he’d be. Share Cardillo’s op-ed with them. Because as Frank Bruni so compellingly warns: “America is in terrible danger.” And now . . . There are two kinds of people in the world: those who hear, “Have fun storming the . . . ” and immediately smile for reasons I don’t have to explain; and those whose lives, while they may be otherwise joy-filled, are not fully complete. If you fall into either category, you can have great fun chipping in to help win Wisconsin and watch a replay of The Princess Bride reunion that was staged a few days ago with all the living actors (R.I.P., Peter Falk and Andre the Giant), and director Rob Reiner. It’s great. Have fun storming Wisconsin. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
Renaming The Virus . . . And Two Stocks Not To Sell September 25, 2020 That Trump would have pulled back the CDC forward-stationed pandemic teams in 2018 . . . allowed 40,000 Americans back into the U.S. without a two-week quarantine . . . ignored a dozen urgent early warnings . . . downplayed a virus he knew to be five times as deadly as the flu . . . promoted bogus treatments, mocked mask wearing and social distancing . . . . . . all that, I think, adds up to negligent homicide. But he’s the boss, and he’s told us he’s done a great job keeping us safe and healthy so let’s give him the credit he deserves. Let’s call it the Trump virus. When people think of the virus, he deserves to have them think of him. Meanwhile, as the death toll climbs, it’s important to understand that the Trump virus almost entirely spares young people. And nearly as entirely spares healthy young-ish people. How can one possibly make least-bad public policy choices without taking that into account? Of 200,000+ U.S. Trump virus deaths so far, 100 have been among Americans under 20 — a tenth as many as drown, a twentieth as many as die in homicides . . . let alone from drugs, suicide, or car crashes. Another link worth clicking, for those wrestling with when and how best to reopen schools: Feared Coronavirus Outbreaks in Schools Yet to Arrive, Early Data Shows. Don’t sell your BOREF if you bought it with money you can truly afford to lose. . . . here’s one more indication that they’re making progress, and that I’m not the only one who thinks so. ATI’s work with WheelTug is currently the lead feature on their front page. . . . Through our partnership with WheelTug, we’re enabling faster loading, faster pushbacks and increased safety every time a plane gets ready to take to the sky. . . . You will recall that BOREF owns 58% of WheelTug, private shares of which have been bought at a $1.25 billion valuation in the hope that one day thousands of 737s and A320s will be WheelTug-enabled, saving passengers time, saving airlines $1+ million per year per plane, and adding meaningful gate capacity to the world’s airports without their having to spend a dime on new runways or terminals. Airplanes do no one any good sitting at the gate, so cutting 5 or 10 or 20 minutes of ground time from each of millions of flights every year would be a big deal. Could a company with the potential to save airlines $10 billion a year be worth $1.25 billion? If so, BOREF’s 58% share would be worth $725 million. BOREF closed the week at $8, a $40 million valuation. Any time the stock goes up, it’s quickly beaten back down — not, I think, in any nefarious scheme, as some imagine, but, simply because many of those who bought in at $3 or $4 and have grown old waiting for the big payoff seize any opportunity to escape. For the rest of us, my hope — obviously — is that our patience will be rewarded. Don’t sell your PRKR, either. Here’s the latest press release. And here’s a company-sponsored research report. I obviously don’t know what will happen with any of their lawsuits, but as has been discussed in previous posts, it seems to me that, with the stock so cheap, the potential 5X or 10X or 20X reward outweighs the risk of total loss. John Lowther: “Please remind everyone that you do not have to rely on the mail to send in your ballot. In my town you can deposit your ballot in a drop box at the town hall..” → Republicans are fighting hard to limit the availability of drop boxes — in Ohio, for example. It is a core Republican goal to make it hard to vote. But there are tons of folks trying to make it as easy as possible. If you don’t yet have a plan to vote, run don’t walk to: Stephen Colbert’s BetterKnowABallot. Or NBC News’ Plan Your Vote. Or, simply, Iwillvote.com. Have a great weekend. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
We Really Do Need A Landslide . . . September 24, 2020October 4, 2020 . . . because the coup has already begun. The dictator-ascendant has already announced that the only election outcome he’ll accept as legitimate is his own victory. So he ain’t leaving. And it just gets scarier from there. Have you read this Atlantic piece that everyone is talking about? Tom and Carl are fine with a dictatorship, just as they are with Trump’s masterful handling of the virus (only 203,000 dead so far!), the debt (largest deficits in history!), the economy (massive unemployment!), climate change (a hoax!), the Russia thing (another hoax! the greatest witch hunt in the history of the country, even though every Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee agrees otherwise), the twenty thousand lies, the Access Hollywood tape, the bone spurs, paying someone else to take his SATs, the bankruptcies, the mob connections, the “losers” and “suckers,” the opinion of Trump’s older sister, the trade wars that have proved so “easy to win” (apologies to the American farmers who’ve committed suicide) . . . they are fine with torch-carrying marchers (many of them “very fine people”), fine with his embrace of journalist-murdering, opposition-leader-poisoning Putin . . . and Putin’s putting bounties on American soldier’s heads . . . fine with journalist-dismembering Mohammed bin Salman . . . I mean, Trump’s just a funny, honest, thoughtful guy, working his tail off not for his own benefit, but, rather, to help America’s average working Joe and Jane who like as not have a pre-existing condition. Putin is THIS CLOSE to winning the Second Cold War. We really do need a landslide. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
From Dan, Mike, and Michael September 22, 2020 From a tech exec pal: “Hi, my name’s Dan and I’m a volunteer for the Democratic Party. Is Annette there?” The call started like the hundreds of other calls I’ve made for the campaign, and half the time I barely get that sentence out before I hear the *click* of a hangup or a brusque “No, don’t call again.” But Annette was polite from the start. “Yes, dear, this is Annette, what can I do for you?” I explained that I was calling to ask if she was planning to vote for Joe, Kamala, and other Democrats down the ballot. “Well…” she paused, and I got nervous. Then she sighed. “Well, my husband just passed.” My stomach fell, and I stammered out something about how terribly sorry I was. “I’m sorry, too, especially because now only I get to vote for Joe. My husband would have been right there with me filling out his ballot to get that monster out of the White House.” I laughed softly and said that I wish he was around to vote this year as well for exactly that reason. “And what’s worse, my income just got cut in half. I want to support Joe but I can’t really donate. I’m sorry, dear, I’m sure that’s why you’re calling.” I explained that no, I wasn’t calling for money, just to see if she needed information about early voting. “Oh yes, I’ve already requested my ballot—don’t worry about me, I need to make sure I don’t have to move to Canada in November. I’ve got friends in Canada! They’d love to have me. But I don’t want to have to move.” I told her I hoped she wouldn’t have to move, either, and that I was glad she was on top of getting her ballot in on time. I started to say something again about how sorry I was about her husband. “Don’t worry about me, dear. You need to call the rest of the people on your list, not spend all night talking to an old lady like me.” I told her how much I appreciated that, but that I hoped she was OK. “Dear, it’s awful—I was married to my husband for 57 years. But I honestly don’t know what I’ll do if we don’t win. Please keep making the calls—it’s wonderful what you’re doing and every little bit helps.” # So I second your frequent exhortation: Volunteer. Contribute. Recruit poll workers. Vote! Do it for Annette. From Mike Martin: Your posting Friedman’s argument about humiliation Monday ties in with this article on White pride. [“. . . By denying and failing to validate the existence of “white pride” — not in the white supremacist sense, but in a more basic sense of alienation and disenfranchisement — the Democrats have handed Trump and the Republican Party a powerful tool of emotional persuasion similar to Hitler’s power over alienated Germans in the wake of World War I, a power that pulls at the core identity of voters and takes logic and factual persuasion totally off the table. . . .“] I think it is deeper. The reality is that everywhere in the United States we structure our high schools in such a way that going to college is success and everything else is failure. More importantly, this means that throughout the U.S. the most talented young adults leave their communities to go off to college. After college these people become professionals and go to large cities where they pursue lucrative careers. Meanwhile, the communities have had their top talent stripped away. Those who remain seek out careers without college education. They thus actually live in an environment where there is little esteem. They know, because they’ve been indoctrinated in it, that not being able to graduate from college makes them lesser. Society has created a psychology of failure for those without college degrees. Literally, when you go through high school there is one acceptable goal: go to college. If you don’t go to college you are left behind as refuse. These people know this. They live this. When I worked in education I argued against this psychology and proffered that if you look at salary data, the college graduates always have higher average or median salaries than non-graduates, but as a statistician I looked at the percentiles and although the 50th percentile was almost always higher for college graduates, there usually was a large overlap with non-graduates. People who excelled at careers that did not require a college degree frequently had higher salaries than the bottom third of those who had degrees. To me, it was important to publicize that good careers could be achieved without going to college if people focused on careers that they enjoyed doing and thus would excel in doing. But it was anathema to the education community to incorporate this. I became ostracized because people did not even want to hear this. It was college or nothing. I argued that two-thirds of high school graduates would not really succeed in college and should pursue other careers. Some might acquire community college courses with an AA or less and still do well in society. A large percentage, maybe even more than half were going to leave high school with only that diploma, or maybe lacking even a high school diploma, because that was their level of expertise and intelligence, but they still could pursue a successful career. They were still going to have families and live in the community. I gave examples of people who went to college but could not graduate and instead ended up with debt and no degree. I argued that only about a quarter of high school graduates should go to a four-year college. Another third should go to community college because they would be exposed to a wide spectrum of alternative careers. A four-year university student in pre-med could very well fail and drop out, whereas the same student in a community college would find career choices as medical technicians, and other fields that they could shift into without failure. AND, as I mentioned, if they were better suited to those careers they would likely earn higher salaries than a career requiring a college degree that they really were not suited to. I think the people in rural communities resent being considered lesser just because they didn’t go off to cities with college degrees. I think they also know and associate with people who did go to college and failed while acquiring debt burdens. We portray college attendance as if everyone graduates and passes the bar or gets some other professional certificate. But that isn’t true. There are people who graduate from law school and don’t pass the bar. Conversely, the world is full of examples of people who didn’t go to college but succeeded spectacularly: they wrote a novel, they invented a mechanism, they performed music, they did valuable things based on creativity and innovation that do not involve intelligence and scholastic aptitude. They can do that in local communities, in rural communities. I think there is a reality that is more than simply feelings of humiliation, but actually consists of actively denigrating people based on structural misconceptions. I have a college degree, but I only got my degree because my landlord didn’t pay the gas company and my heat was turned off in January. I went to college on the G.I. bill because it provided a way to get income and improve my situation. I see the advantages of having a degree but know I only have one because my landlord screwed up. In my opinion, the situation has become so distorted that people in rural communities intentionally act stupid as a way of building community. This is why Republicans always act stupid: in order to appeal to that community. In the Marines we used to say “if they give you the name, then play the game” rather than try to fight denigration. Republicans only do something if it is stupid because being stupid is their brand. That is how they signal to each other that they belong together. Logic, science, truth, and evidence are Democrat brand signals. The Republicans don’t want to be confused with them because it is based on a humiliation that begins in high school. From Michael Maslansky, passed on to me by one of you: September 17, 2020 Dear friends, I am sending you this note because you are among a group of friends of my parents who I have known for most or all of my life. You’ve supported me at different stages and maybe even followed my career. I respect you as a person, a parent, and a professional, and I’d like to think you respect me as well. I don’t know how you plan to vote in November, but I do know that some of my parent’s friends plan to vote for President Trump and plan to do so in Florida. Because every vote in Florida has the potential to decide the election, I am writing to you to share my perspective on the election. I realize you may have made up your mind already. I’m asking for a few moments of your time. I have spent parts of my life in politics and have worked for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. But I am not writing this as a partisan. I am writing as an American, a Jew, and a parent – three traits I know I share with you. If you plan to vote for President Trump in 2020, you probably voted for him in 2016. In 2016, there were many reasons to support candidate Trump. He positioned himself as a straight-talking, business-friendly, Israel-friendly, New Yorker who could fix a dysfunctional Washington. It was quite reasonable to dismiss his most outrageous statements as Trump being Trump. Few on the left could understand this decision, but to me, the calculus was quite reasonable. Is the same true in 2020? A vote for President Trump in 2020 still may be the right decision for you and your family from a short-term economic perspective. And a vote for Trump may also be the best way to show support for Israel. But 2020 is not 2016. In 2020, a vote for President Trump is also a vote to support President Trump’s America and a vote in support of his values. Because I know these are not your values, I ask you to consider what support for Trump in 2020 represents. By supporting Trump, you are supporting a President who seeks to undermine our democracy to become an autocrat. This is not an exaggeration. A free press is critical to a functioning democracy. He attacks any journalist who says anything he does not like. He actively spreads disinformation to create doubt about all news. Free and fair elections are the foundation of our democracy. This President solicits foreign interference, openly works to suppress the vote, publicly says he may reject the results of the election, and has already used the military on American soil to fight dissent. He does this in full daylight. This is not about Fox News vs. MSNBC – this is a deliberate and consistent effort to weaken our system of government. Please think about the impact of these actions. Our democracy is strong, but it has never been attacked from the White House like this. By supporting Trump, you are supporting white nationalism. President has repeatedly taken actions to support white nationalist groups and their messages. And he has repeatedly refused to disavow his support. Trump may support Israel, but it is not because he supports Jews. His consistent support for white nationalist groups has already led to a record level of anti-Semitic crime in America. Before every major outbreak of anti-Jewish violence in history including the Holocaust, Jews underestimated the potential that it could happen there or then. Please don’t underestimate that potential here. By supporting Trump, you are saying that corruption and cronyism are acceptable. In less than four years, eight Trump appointees, advisors, or employees have been arrested or convicted for crimes that include conspiracy against the US, witness tampering, money laundering, and paying hush money. Our President serves as a role model to my children and your grandchildren. He celebrates this behavior. Reelecting him sends a message that you think this behavior is acceptable. By supporting Trump, you are rejecting science. Since his inauguration, President Trump has deleted scientific data from government websites, stopped collection of data he disagrees with, and repeatedly undermined the evidence-based opinions of respected scientists and medical professionals. It is one thing to debate the merits of a scientific study or opinion. It is another to attack the idea that science is important. Imagine a world, where science and data can no longer be used to help us understand our world and how to make positive change. That is the world a vote for Trump is supporting. By supporting Trump, you are hurting your grandchildren and threatening your health. I am not trying to be dramatic. Trump made a public health crisis political. It did not have to be this way. If your grandchildren are not in school, it is because of Trump’s actions. If you don’t get to see your family as much as you would like, it is because of Trump’s actions. This is America, and our response should be the best in the world. But our response to the virus is worse than many developing countries, and by voting for him you are supporting a continuation of this approach. By supporting Trump, what legacy are you leaving your grandchildren? Only you can decide what you want that legacy to be. You may decide that what matters most is passing along the biggest possible inheritance. At the same time, I’d ask you to consider the legacy that another four years of Trump will leave. Your grandchildren are witnessing gun violence, racial violence, and the impacts of climate change that are only likely to increase. They may be forced to reckon with a true constitutional crisis. Your vote is not just a vote for lower taxes or a continued bull market. Your vote is a referendum on Trump’s America. President Trump has made it very clear what he stands for. Because I don’t think these are the things you stand for, I ask you to vote against him. And if you cannot vote against him, please consider not voting for him. With respect, Michael Volunteer. Contribute. Recruit poll workers. Vote!
Shooting From 187th Out Of 200 To #9 September 20, 2020September 21, 2020 “Fight for the things that you care about. But do it in a way that will lead others to join you.” ― Ruth Bader Ginsburg (And learn to treasure people you disagree with, so long as they are honest. Witness Justice Ginsburg’s famous friendship with Justice Scalia.) Both things easier said than done — but definitely possible. I hope Joe Biden, should he be elected, will find ways to get most Americans to accept the same kinds of broadly beneficial things that past progressive leaders have, most of them against fierce resistance: Medicare, Social Security, federally insured bank accounts, the right of women to vote, an end to slavery, environmental protections, marriage equality, rural electrification, weekends. Stuff like that. Going forward: a program to revitalize our crumbling infrastructure, putting people to work at a living wage . . . programs to create clean energy jobs, a “smart grid,” rural high-speed broadband . . . expansion of the Affordable Care act to include a public option and negotiated prescription drug prices. There’s so much that needs doing to rebuild the middle class . . . (one small one I love: this voluntary corporate tax surcharge) . . . and to restore a sense of shared purpose, even as Putin has thousands of psy-ops agents masquerading as Americans working so effectively to tear us apart. Can anyone think now, with hindsight, it was a mistake to allow women to vote? To allow women on the Supreme Court? To celebrate the friendship Justices Ginsburg and Scalia enjoyed? R.I.P., R.B.G. If it were Romney or McCain, Dole or H.W. Bush, or Ford that Biden were running against it would be easy, in the main, to remain friends with his detractors. But Trump is not like the worthy opponents whom Obama, Clinton, and Carter faced. Trump sees those who serve in the military as “losers” and “suckers.” Sees his supporters as “disgusting.” “To Trump” — we learn in Michael Cohen’s Disloyal — “his voters are his audience, his chumps, his patsies, his base.” Not wanting to believe that they’ve been played, Trump’s base dismisses all this as fake. They won’t read Disloyal. But that’s a shame, because while most of the events are familiar — the escalator descent, Stormy Daniels, and all that — here we learn how it all looked from behind the curtain, as told by the man who engineered so much of it. One chapter that was all new to me describes Trump’s delight in rigging an “election” of sorts — a 2014 CNBC on-line poll to identify America’s 25 most influential business people. Viewers were given 200 choices, and when the poll came to Trump’s attention, he was ranked 187th. So he called Cohen into his office and told him to fix it. Cohen found a guy from Liberty University who was able to do it at a cost of $15,000 (to buy 200,000 IP addresses) and Trump approved the expense. He wanted to be #1. No, Cohen counseled, that could bring too much scrutiny. Just be in the top ten. He should be #9, they decided. So, sure enough, when the voting ended, Trump was #9. He was thrilled, telling everyone he spoke to that he had been voted the 9th most influential living business person in America. He seemed truly proud of it. But the story didn’t end there, because in the fine print, CNBC had reserved the right to remove anyone they wished without explanation. They removed Trump (and T. Boone Pickens), presumably as not setting the kind of positive example they wanted CNBC’s 25th Anniversary to be associated with. (They had not found out about the doctored poll.) Trump was outraged! How could CNBC question the status he had won fair and square?! He threatened to sue if CNBC failed to restore him to his rightful place on the list. CNBC did not back down. And because the fraud had ultimately failed, Trump stiffed Cohen’s Liberty University friend for the $15,000. Still, writes Cohen, “the important thing, for Trump, was the printout he had of the poll showing him at number nine. He had hundreds of copies made and added to the pile of newspaper clippings and magazine profiles on his desk he would give to visitors.” “In some ways,” Cohen writes early on in his memoir, “I knew [Trump] better than even his family did, because I bore witness to the real man: a cheat, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, a con man.” Whom Carl and Tom — and Lindsey Graham — support for reelection. So how do we offer them an off-ramp? (Well, not Lindsey Graham, who is beyond hope, but tens of millions of others who may secretly harbor doubts or disappointment.) One approach is to share the simple, honest feelings of real Americans: Thirty seconds from a Wisconsin voter in Green Bay. Thirty more from a Wisconsin voter in Wauwatosa. But in a really important column, Tom Friedman argues that the candidate himself needs to help Trump supporters know that he hears them, and respects them, and wants to be their president, too: . . . the success of Joe Biden’s campaign against Donald Trump may ride on his ability to speak to the sense of humiliation and quest for dignity of many Trump supporters, which Hillary Clinton failed to do. . . . The media feed Trump’s supporters a daily diet of how outrageous this or that Trump action is — but none of it diminishes their support. Because many Trump supporters are not attracted to his policies. They’re attracted to his attitude — his willingness and evident delight in skewering the people they hate and who they feel look down on them. Humiliation, in my view, is the most underestimated force in politics and international relations. The poverty of dignity explains so much more behavior than the poverty of money. People will absorb hardship, hunger and pain. They will be grateful for jobs, cars and benefits. But if you make people feel humiliated, they will respond with a ferocity unlike any other emotion, or just refuse to lift a finger for you. As Nelson Mandela once observed, “There is nobody more dangerous than one who has been humiliated.” By contrast, if you show people respect, if you affirm their dignity, it is amazing what they will let you say to them or ask of them. Sometimes it just takes listening to them, but deep listening — not just waiting for them to stop talking. Because listening is the ultimate sign of respect. What you say when you listen speaks more than any words. I’ve seen firsthand the power of humiliation in foreign policy: Vladimir Putin’s macho act after Russia’s humiliation at losing the Cold War; Iraqi Sunnis who felt humiliated by a U.S. invasion force that pushed them out of Iraq’s army and government, stripping them of rank and status; Israeli Sephardic Jews who felt humiliated by Ashkenazi Jewish elites, something Bibi Netanyahu has long manipulated; Palestinians feeling humiliated at Israeli checkpoints; Muslim youth in Europe feeling humiliated by the Christian majority; and China questing to become the world’s dominant power, after what Chinese themselves call their “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers. When George Floyd was being held down by three policemen, one with a knee on his neck, as he pleaded for his mother and onlookers filmed on their phones, he was not just being restrained — he was being humiliated. Resistance to the daily humiliations of racism has fueled the Black civil rights movement from its inception to Black Lives Matter. In a much talked-about new book, “The Tyranny of Merit: What’s Become of the Common Good?” Harvard political philosopher Michael Sandel (disclosure: he is a close friend) says “the politics of humiliation” is also at the heart of Trump’s appeal. “Trump was elected by tapping a wellspring of anxieties, frustrations and legitimate grievances to which the mainstream parties had no compelling answer,” Sandel notes. These grievances “are not only economic but also moral and cultural; they are not only about wages and jobs but also about social esteem.” Unless Biden finds a way to speak to the sense of humiliation felt by many working-class voters, Sandel warns, even Trump’s failure to deal with the pandemic may not be enough to turn these voters against him. The reason? “Resentment borne of humiliation is the most potent political sentiment of all,” Sandel explains. Sandel argues that the polarized politics of our time, and the resentments that fuel it, arise, paradoxically, from a seemingly attractive ideal — the meritocratic promise that if you work hard and go to college, you will rise. But this ideal sends a double message. “It congratulates the winners but denigrates the losers,” he writes . . . “Elites have so valorized a college degree — both as an avenue for advancement and as the basis for social esteem — that they have difficulty understanding the hubris a meritocracy can generate, and the harsh judgment it imposes on those who have not gone to college,” Sandel says. . . . “Biden is right that Trump botched the pandemic, violated constitutional norms and inflamed racial tensions — all good grounds for throwing him out of office,” argues Sandel. “But Biden could win this argument and still lose the election.” He must find a way to show that he understands those who feel disrespected and are drawn to Trump for that reason — even though most of his policies don’t help them. How? Sandel and I put our heads together and thought, well, maybe Biden should go on a tour of Trump country, focusing on rural counties and towns in the Midwest, and just listen to Trump’s base, both to learn and as a sign of respect. Then, at the first presidential debate, Biden should ignore Trump and his buffoonery and speak about what he had learned by talking to likely Trump voters. Biden could talk about where he agrees with them and where he disagrees with them and why — the ultimate sign of respect. That is how Biden can get at least some Trump devotees to see that “working-class Joe from Scranton” — not “Billionaire Don, born with a silver spoon in his mouth”— is the one who really hails from their side of the tracks and can be trusted (a very important word) to look out for them. When it comes to politics, a lot of people don’t listen through their ears. They listen through their gut, and Biden, more than any other Democratic leader today, has the ability to connect there. Trump’s goal in this campaign is to separate Biden from Biden voters by making it as difficult as possible for Biden voters to vote. Biden’s goal should be to separate Trump from Trump voters by showing that he respects them and their fears — even if he does not respect Trump. BONUS: What an inspiring pitch from Jaime Harrison, the guy running to defeat Lindsey Graham. Compare those two links. In a sense, they are much like the choice between Biden and Trump. Which one would you rather your son or daughter take as a role model?
So? What’s BOREF Worth? September 18, 2020September 17, 2020 But first: From Politico: Trump hails ‘manufacturing miracle’ as factories bleed jobs. “The president’s anti-trade agenda and a pandemic-induced recession have combined to shutter factories and accelerate trends toward automation.” A don’t-miss minute — complete with disclaimers — advocating his reelection. (Thanks, Joey!) And now: David M.: “What’s your take on the WheelTug demonstration? And how about the proposed “merger” (purchase) of CNXM? I have to read a 220-page consent document. Also, including possible legal action.” → The only thing I know about CNXM is that you don’t need to read the 220-page consent document. I’m pretty sure the merger goes through whether you vote for it or not. Nor do you need to join the legal action. If they bring it and win, as I hope they do, we’ll be entitled to our share of the proceeds even if we do not sign on as “named plaintiffs.” I first suggested CNXM here at $13.25 and do feel we were misled by management. I suggested it again at half price during the COVID collapse — and on those shares we do now have a nice profit. If you bought both times, you might want to sell the first shares for the tax loss (and still participate in any legal settlement) while holding the second set. But I am clearly no expert on CNXM. I do feel I know a fair amount about WheelTug and BOREF. The demonstration went well. Air Insight: “This event had a feeling of seeing something special taking place.” WheelTug’s partners are excited. E.g.: Total Air Group Supports WheelTug Test Drive at Memphis International Airport CEO of Total Air Group, Tracy Silvius, stated: “We are thrilled to be a partner to WheelTug and assist in developing technology that we believe will have the same dramatic impact within the aviation industry in terms of time savings as the transition from piston airliners to jets.” The local press provided detailed coverage: Memphis airport showcases tug-less taxiing invention. The odds seem better than ever that WheelTug will eventually win FAA approval and begin installing systems and booking revenue. I think it’s entirely plausible that 10 years from now almost all commercial jets will have WheelTug-like capability. Why would they not? The analogy I’ve used is the TV remote control. The invention of TV — like the invention of the airplane — was revolutionary. The add-on convenience of a simple little remote control was trivial . . . and yet until they were invented, no one in the world was able to change channels or adjust volume without rising from the couch to do so. No one! And then, once that capability was offered, within a few years no one in the world would buy a TV without that capability. Who would want a plane that can’t back out from the gate on its own? That can’t park parallel for boarding and deplaning from both front AND rear doors? It’s possible air travel itself will become a relic, thanks to never-ending pandemics, terrorism, or the emergence of safe human teleportation. Bye-bye BOREF. More likely bad endings would include such mundane possibilities as the motor’s proving unreliable in some way (though pilots will always be able to back out from the gate the old-fashioned way, just as, in an emergency, we can always rise from our couch to turn on the TV) . . . or some competitor swooping in out of the blue with an even better solution (though no viable competitor is visibly on the horizon and WheelTug has a slew of patents). I think the most realistic concerns are that this will all take a long time; that airlines won’t easily part with the kind of huge sums WheelTug envisions; and that even as revenues come in lower and slower than hoped, expenses will exceed projections. (It’s called: “real life.”) So with all the remaining risks and potential delays, what is BOREF worth? If the stock is worth $100 in five years — a $500 million market cap — and if you’re satisfied compounding your money at 20% a year, then it’s worth $40 today. (Forty bucks compounded at 20% grows to $100 in five years.) If you require 30% a year, you’d pay $27. If you’d settle for 15%: $50. My own guess — purely a guess — is that BOREF is as likely to be worth more than $100 a share five years from now as it is to be worth less. It has no sales or profits; but many valuable companies have been highly valued before they turned a profit. (Here are five.) It took FedEx 13 years from conception to its first profit. Nine years for Amazon. Obviously, BOREF will never be worth $65 billion, like FedEx, or $1.5 trillion like Amazon. But is $500 million implausible for a company whose innovation has the potential to save more than $1 million a year in each of 17,000 or so 737s and A320s — so, more than $17 billion in annual savings? And that could in effect add 10% or 15% to the capacity of the world’s commercial airports without their building a single new runway or terminal, by reducing the amount of time jets need to sit at the gate? And that would save passengers hundreds of millions of hours each year? BOREF’s most obvious asset is its 58% of WheelTug. WheelTug shares have been privately selling at a $1.25 billion valuation. Not five years from now — now. That doesn’t mean they’re worth that much — but even if they’re not (and the purchasers obviously think they are), might they be worth that much in five years? At which point BOREF’s WheelTug stake alone would be worth $150 per BOREF share. And if BOREF proves its technology works in airplanes, might it find uses elsewhere? And might one or more of BOREF’s other supposed technological breakthroughs prove real? All of which is to say that at last night’s $9.50 close, I’m nowhere near selling any of my shares. (All bought — I can’t stress heavily enough — with money I can truly afford to lose, and still may.) Did you watch that don’t-miss minute advocating Trump’s reelection. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
Test Drive Succeeded Yesterday September 16, 2020September 15, 2020 But first: Rachel Maddow on Michael Caputo. Beyond words. Must watch. We desperately have to find an off-ramp for Carl and Tom. As noted last week, 81 Nobel-Prize-winning scientists have endorsed Biden. Now comes Scientific American, endorsing a a presidential candidate for the first time in its 175-year history. Maybe those of us who “believe in” science — which is to say things like electricity and facts, aerodynamics and logic, antibiotics and truth — should think twice before putting mankind’s future in Trump’s somewhat small hands. And now: Aviation Week says WheelTug has the field pretty much to itself. Yesterday, it was demonstrated in Memphis. Watch. The video starts three minutes in (waiting for Zoom attendees to sign in). The company says it may remain up for only a day or two, so now’s the time to click if you’re interested. If you don’t own BOREF shares (with money you can truly afford to lose), it’s like watching paint dry. Or being stuck on a plane waiting for passengers to board, stow their stuff, and take their seats (if only they could board from both front AND rear doors, in half the time!) . . . and then, once they have, waiting for a tug to come push the plane back from the gate (if only the plane could just back out on its own!). Inch by inch . . . Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!
The Inside Story September 15, 2020September 14, 2020 [Third quarterly estimated tax payment due today.] Whatever you think of Michael Cohen, his memoir, Disloyal, seems in the main more than plausible. Why would he lie? To get a reduced sentence? That ship has sailed. To win a pardon? Not with this book. Page 17: “I bore witness to the real man, in strip clubs, shady business meetings, and in the unguarded moments when he revealed who he really was: a cheat, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, a con man.” For 10 years, Cohen was Trump’s first call most mornings, last call most evenings . . . as “inner circle” as anyone could possibly have been. Loyal beyond words. If only there were a way to get people like Carl and Tom to read Disloyal . . . and then find them an off-ramp quietly to acknowledge they were conned. That they, too, have been enabling a really bad guy. Understandably, that’s an exceptionally difficult thing for any proud, bright, fundamentally good person to accept. Three powerful videos, just a minute or two each: Reject the hate. Trump on 9/11. Trump is not like you. Following up on yesterday’s comments on socialism . . . Socialism is a scare word they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years. Socialism is what they called public power. Socialism is what they called social security. Socialism is what they called farm price supports. Socialism is what they called bank deposit insurance. Socialism is what they called the growth of free and independent labor organizations. Socialism is their name for almost anything that helps all the people. When the Republican candidate inscribes the slogan “Down With Socialism” on the banner of his “great crusade,” that is really not what he means at all. What he really means is “Down with Progress–down with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal,” and “down with Harry Truman’s fair Deal.” That’s all he means. — Harry S. Truman, 1952 BONUS: A bit of opera with your pasta. Or your pizza. Volunteer! Contribute! Recruit poll workers! Vote!