1958 Clairvoyance January 11, 2019January 10, 2019 Must-see, on the off chance you haven’t: A 1958 TV show, fact-checked by Snopes — it’s real! — about a con man named Trump trying to sell a wall by stoking fear. The clip is only a couple of minutes long. Or watch the entire episode. Amazing. Steve Morgan: “This article simply amplifies the fury we feel in Texas. Hurricane Harvey recovery still hasn’t been completed. Many folks that suffered total losses were denied FEMA funds. Now that ‘money has been found’ that was designated for infrastructure repairs in Puerto Rico, Texas, and California, Trump wants to divert it to the Wall?” Paul Abrams: “Anyone who believes Trumpf will follow the law when he and/or his kids are indicted do not grasp how different narcissist sociopaths are from normality: What the President Could Do If He Declares a State of Emergency.” Some of you sent suggestions for fixing yesterday’s sonnet. Thank you. It now rhymes! Carl sent a cartoon showing the Statue of Liberty with a donkey head (i.e.: a Democrat) saying: “Give me your undetected, undocumented, and unchecked masses yearning for free stuff.” He seemed to like that. Yet it seems such an insult to his fellow human beings. They walk thousands of miles seeking asylum from horrible circumstances, hoping to scrub Carl’s motel toilet, pick his lettuce, or trim his hedges . . . hoping to give their kids a decent life. So turning them away, if that’s what Carl and the cartoonist decide must be done, should at least be a subject of heartbreak — not mockery — don’t you think? Though seeking asylum is currently 100% legal under U.S. law, Republicans have decided to follow Trump, not Jesus or the law, in their response to the downtrodden. And Carl and the cartoonist have decided to mock them. Funny stuff.
Two Sonnets And An Investment Strategy January 10, 2019January 10, 2019 Goldman Sachs begins its current 104-page Outlook, “American Preeminence in a Rattled World,” with a sonnet whose final lines you surely know: The New Colossus Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame, With conquering limbs astride from land to land; Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame. “Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” — Emma Lazarus (1849–1887) Updated for 2019 (by me, not Goldman): Asylum seekers, beacon bound — turn back; You must turn around. Thousands of miles to plead your case — turn back; We’re now a different place. This golden land you now are nearing — turn back; You’ll get no hearing. Kids in tow, we won’t engage them — turn back; We’ll grab and cage them. (And if somehow you sneak them thru — your precious cargo — Look for a job at Mar-a-Lago.) Goldman Sachs thinks (to summarize the 104 pages): American economic preeminence is likely to persist; stay largely invested in U.S. equities this year. My for-profit strategy is to diversify and keep expenses low (click here for a 296-page elaboration). My non-profit strategy revolves around electing Democrats . . . to empower an Obama/Biden-like vision for the world (to shorthand it) rather than a Bush/Cheney vision or a Trump/Pence/McConnell vision. I put no resources into fighting Democrats (i.e., primaries). I put only a little into state and local races — mainly: governors, secretaries of state and A.G.’s. (New York City has a dozen fine progressives running for Public advocate. I wish them all well but decline their requests. They don’t make national policy or lifetime judicial appointments.) I give relatively little to individual candidates, much as I want them to win: a) The candidates over-spend on advertising, in my view (their consultants often get a slice; and, being human, they want to make their case on TV and respond to attacks) . . . b. Yet, elections these days, I think, are mainly about turn-out, not persuasion. Great TV ads are not going to persuade many people to switch tribes. Candidates can’t abandon advertising, of course; but I see little risk they will underspend on TV. The smart money, it seems to me, goes into the ground game – organizing for massive registration and turn-out of folks who will surely vote our way IF THEY VOTE. 4. I give mainly to the DNC because this is the DNC’s focus: enabling a massive turnout. I feel particularly good supporting the DNC now that Tom Perez runs it. (President Obama considered him one of his very most effective Cabinet secretaries.) And now that Raffi Krikorian is Tom’s CTO. (Ex-head of global infrastructure for Twitter, wooed away by Uber to lead the team that delivered their self-driving car, he is a tech super star – the kind we never had before.) 5. A massive turn-out is so much more efficient than targeting specific races. If we get our folks to the polls, they typically vote for ALL our candidates – even when they know nothing about them, just that they’re Democrats. 6. I give early – a year’s worth last week – because (a) relatively few others do, so that’s when it’s most needed; (b) the longer organizers have to recruit, train, and inspire volunteers, the larger the snowball grows. I don’t want to let the Republicans keep building to beat us in 2020 while we take a break and start all over again next year. In case you want to join “the January Club” (not a real thing: just the way I think of those of us who give at the start of each year), click here. I’ll see whatever you do the minute you do it, to say thanks. “History has its eyes on us.” Melodramatic but true.
Progress! January 9, 2019January 7, 2019 Last Friday: the social progress the country’s made losing its fear of high school football captains. Today: physical and technological progress. (Why does it come so much easier, despite all the higher math required, than social progress?) Physical: New York-a-philes may enjoy these then and now photos. Technological: The best of what was new in 2018 from Popular Science. We’re hurtling toward the sun at nearly half a million miles an hour . . . we have a solar-powered plane that stayed aloft for 25 days (and nights) . . . super Post-Its that stick to rough surfaces . . . an electronic mug — but is $80 too much to keep your coffee at the desired temperature all morning long?* . . . a mosquito repeller I need to try . . . pills that tell you and your doc when they’ve been swallowed, lest you go off your meds . . . a tiny heart monitor . . . a better AIDS drug . . . faster 911 response time . . . 3D-printed homes . . . vegan eggs. All very nice. But did you see Sunday’s incredible 60 Minutes segment? Xyleco will slow climate change, replacing lots of fossil fuel; reduce ocean garbage, via biodegradable plastic; impede weight gain and tooth decay, via better sugar. All this from a guy with no science education! Invisibility. Jim Burt: “Just tell POTUS his new wall has been completed and is in place: an impenetrable barrier built from the same materials used to make the Emperor’s New Clothes and fully paid for by Mexico. Congratulate him on his success. Then move on. He’ll never know the difference. He’s not detail-oriented.” Okay, maybe not that. But as the invaluable Nick Kristof explains: 2018 was by important measures the best year in human history. . . . Each day on average, about another 295,000 people around the world gained access to electricity for the first time, according to Max Roser of Oxford University and his Our World in Data website. Every day, another 305,000 were able to access clean drinking water for the first time. And each day an additional 620,000 people were able to get online for the first time. Never before has such a large portion of humanity been literate, enjoyed a middle-class cushion, lived such long lives, had access to family planning or been confident that their children would survive. Let’s hit pause on our fears and frustrations and share a nanosecond of celebration at this backdrop of progress. . . . . . . It is of course true that there are huge challenges ahead. The gains against global poverty and disease seem to be slowing, and climate change is an enormous threat to poor nations in particular. And the United States is an outlier, where life expectancy is falling, not rising as in most of the world. So there’s plenty to fret about. But a failure to acknowledge global progress can leave people feeling hopeless and ready to give up. In fact, the gains should show us what is possible and spur greater efforts to improve opportunity worldwide. . . . *Yes, it is.
“Be Kind And Be Useful” January 8, 2019January 6, 2019 This is what President Obama would tell his daughters as they grew up in the White House — “be kind and be useful.” I know, because friends just sent me Obama: An Intimate Portrait, a big coffee table book. Wonderful photos that remind one of the dignity and intelligence, decency and seriousness that ordinarily infuse the Presidency — never more so than January 20, 2009-January 19, 2017. Other than mostly-spare captions, there’s almost no text; but a brief introduction by the photographer, Pete Souza, who arguably spent more time with Obama during those years than anyone else, and who heard the President’s exhortation. It’s a picture book, but those five words — “be kind and be useful” — speak volumes.
What Are We Waiting For? January 6, 2019January 6, 2019 I promised “a different kind of progress” Friday (so stay tuned for dazzling tech stuff), but then Mel sent me this (thanks, Mel!) . . . . . . and many of you sent me David Leonhardt’s piece: Demonstrably Unfit — What Are We Waiting For? I think the Democratic leadership is right to be cautious about impeachment. Especially with the Mueller report likely just weeks away, they should wait to see what it shows. But everyone should consider what Leonhardt has to say. He begins: The presidential oath of office contains 35 words and one core promise: to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” Since virtually the moment Donald J. Trump took that oath two years ago, he has been violating it. He has repeatedly put his own interests above those of the country. He has used the presidency to promote his businesses. He has accepted financial gifts from foreign countries. He has lied to the American people about his relationship with a hostile foreign government. He has tolerated cabinet officials who use their position to enrich themselves. To shield himself from accountability for all of this — and for his unscrupulous presidential campaign — he has set out to undermine the American system of checks and balances. He has called for the prosecution of his political enemies and the protection of his allies. He has attempted to obstruct justice. He has tried to shake the public’s confidence in one democratic institution after another, including the press, federal law enforcement and the federal judiciary. The unrelenting chaos that Trump creates can sometimes obscure the big picture. But the big picture is simple: The United States has never had a president as demonstrably unfit for the office as Trump. And it’s becoming clear that 2019 is likely to be dominated by a single question: What are we going to do about it? . . . Read his answer. Not least because (as argued here), Trump is More Dangerous Than Ever. Indeed, if you want to spend your whole day on this (and I realize most of you don’t), read, too, Professor Sonnenfeld’s Citizen Trump And The Boulevard Of Bedlam in Chief Executive magazine. Scary what Trump’s two favorite movies are. A powerful minority are so emotionally invested in Trump that he literally could walk down Fifth Avenue shooting people and not lose their support. Forcible removal would drive them crazy. Better would be a deal for resignation, a la the deals made with Agnew and Nixon. The precedent is surely there. Failing that, we may soon have to decide whether it’s true that in America, no one is above the law. Or whether, instead, we go the route of nations over which elected, journalist-murdering autocrats preside. Like Putin, Erdogan, Duterte, and Kim Jong-Un (elected with 100% of the vote). And have presided, like Saddam (elected with 99.99%), Mussolini . . . et al. The latter is impossible. This is America. Right?
High School Football Captains In The News January 4, 2019January 4, 2019 Twenty years ago, Corey Johnson came out to his Topsfield, Massachusetts football team. It made national news. Today, he is Speaker of the New York City Council . . . perhaps even New York’s next mayor. But that was Massachusetts. And New York. Now comes Missouri: the football captain and the water polo player. Missouri. . . . “Not only were there hundreds of people who showed up to support us, including many students from other high schools in St. Louis, but our entire school banded together, and became stronger because of it,” [the football captain] wrote in the Huffington Post. “Dozens of my school’s alumni sent in videos expressing support, along with many current students—from the LGBTQ community as well as allies—who wrote beautiful speeches and poems to show their pride. It was truly breathtaking to see so much love from not only my community, but from complete strangers.” . . . Love is love. Progress is progress. Monday: A different kind of progress. Have a great weekend!
Dubious Achievements January 3, 2019January 5, 2019 Tax cuts and deregulation. Republican triumphs. But arguably, neither has been a triumph at all. Paul Krugman: The Trump Tax Cut: Even Worse Than You’ve Heard Skeptical reporting has still been too favorable The 2017 tax cut has received pretty bad press, and rightly so. Its proponents made big promises about soaring investment and wages, and also assured everyone that it would pay for itself; none of that has happened. Yet coverage actually hasn’t been negative enough. The story you mostly read runs something like this: The tax cut has caused corporations to bring some money home, but they’ve used it for stock buybacks rather than to raise wages, and the boost to growth has been modest. That doesn’t sound great, but it’s still better than the reality: No money has, in fact, been brought home, and the tax cut has probably reduced national income. . . . Eric Lipton, et al: The Real-Life Effects of Trump’s Environmental Rollbacks For nearly two years, President Trump has pursued an aggressive, far-reaching effort, lobbied for and cheered on by industry, to free American business from what he and many of his supporters view as excessive environmental regulation. . . . at stake is the quality of the air we breathe and the food we eat, the cleanliness of the rivers that flow past us, and the pace at which the climate is changing. After decades of legislation and regulation, the environment in the United States continues to get cleaner. What has changed under Mr. Trump in most cases is [that] the pace of improvement has been slowed in a number of key areas compared to what it would have been if the Obama rules had been preserved. A third dubious achievement? Defending America from desperate asylum seekers, as we once defended her from Jews fleeing Hitler. Today, with Democrats in control of the House — and Mitt Romney in the Senate, for that matter — we just might start to do better.
Belated New Year’s Resolutions January 2, 2019January 1, 2019 I mentioned yesterday the need to eat less meat. So here are inexpensive alternative sources of protein. Save the planet: you’ll save money and live longer. And quit smoking: you’ll save money and live longer. I’ve often plugged Allen Carr’s Easy Way To Stop Smoking. For a remarkably high proportion of its readers, it works. And know anyone who needs to lose a little weight? Rich Guess: “I’m a retired ER doc and a low carb guy. Check out Why We Get Fat and What to do About It by Gary Taubes.” A lot of Amazon reviewers say it changed their lives.
All I Know January 1, 2019December 31, 2018 Happy New Year! I met some amazing people this last weekend — two of whom had spent a load of time on the International Space Station. Marvel at Scott Kelly’s wonderful Endurance and at — among much else — what Russians and Americans can achieve we cooperate. A great read (or listen at 1.25X). Others I met think Bitcoin will be rebound. Another totally loves Hamilton, as everyone does, but documented numerous ways the show distorts, invents, and erases history for dramatic effect. Another testified behind closed doors to the Senate Intelligence Committee and told me — based on years’ involvement in all this — that the Intelligence Community has the goods on both Trump and Pence, and will somehow make a deal where Trump resigns . . . Pence is briefly president naming some moderate as his VP (Romney?) . . . then Pence goes and (Romney?) names a Democrat as his VP (Biden?) . . . and the world sees stable, experienced, honorable grown-ups back in charge. Utterly fantastical (or is it? listen to Bag Man: both Agnew and Nixon made deals to resign) — but she is closer to this than most of us are (she told the authorities that Manafort was dirty long before it came out in the news, for example), so who knows? All I know is that the days are getting longer and that seniors should be skeptical of annuities sold with steak dinners. And that people who care about humanity’s future should skip steak with or without the annuities. And that shares in YTRA, the Indian travel-agency I bought at $10 when it went public a couple of years ago, may be a lot better value here at $4, where I bought considerably more Monday (with money I can truly afford to lose). Here’s wishing you the healthiest and happiest of New Years.