This One November 13, 2008March 12, 2017 CARTOONS I particularly like this one and this one and this one. PARADISE The reviews just keep coming. If you want to visit Costa Rica, grab some friends, choose a house – this one or this one or this one – and know that for each week you stay, I will extend your access to this web site by three weeks. EDUCATION It’s just one email, but it says a lot about the hole we’re in: From: SF State President Robert A. Corrigan Date: Tue, Oct 28, 2008 at 7:45 PM Subject: The budget and the spring class schedule Dear Allison: Yesterday you received a message from the Registrar informing you that registration for the spring 2009 semester is going to start several weeks later than originally scheduled. I am writing to explain why we have taken this action and what recent changes in the state budget mean to all of us at SF State. As you have no doubt read, the long-delayed state budget – which started with a deficit – has worsened in recent weeks, with revenues falling well below projections. In response, the Department of Finance has required state agencies to make a $390 million General Fund budget cut – $31.3 million from the CSU alone. SF State’s share of that cut will be slightly under $1.9 million. We are going to be able to cover that reduction from funds we held in reserve earlier this year, in case something of this sort might happen. That is the good news. Now, however, it is looking very likely that the CSU and other state agencies will be told to cut their budgets again in mid-year. We do not know the size or exact timing of such a cut. We do know, however, that it would have major impacts on SF State. Among them would be reduction of the class schedule. With this in mind, we felt that continuing spring registration as originally planned would be unfair to students. You might register for classes only to find out later that they had been cancelled. Much better, we think, to wait a few weeks, plan carefully for potential cuts of various sizes and see what new information we can gather, then offer you a class schedule that we believe is realistic, one you can count on. . . . ARBITRAGE Chris Brown: ‘I thought you might enjoy this strange item which illustrates the [occasional] inefficiency of the stock market. When one company spins off part its business, they often issue ‘A’ shares in the IPO, and then decide to spin the rest of the company off as ‘B’ shares. In several cases, the B shares are equal with respect to dividend and ownership stake, but have superior voting rights. You’d expect that the B shares would ultimately trade for the same or just a little more than the A shares, but for at least four companies I’m aware of, the shares are trading backwards from the expected relationship (e.g. BBI/BBI.B, CMG/CMG.B, MWA/MWA.B, SPWRA/SPWRB). Ordinarily, hedge funds would help close the spread by buying the cheaper B shares and shorting the overpriced A shares. (Full disclosure: My fund has positions in some of these, long B and short or synthetically short A. I’m betting these spreads will narrow.)’ ☞ I should perhaps have posted this sooner. Since Chris sent me this, some of those spreads have narrowed. Then again, this is not a game for casual investors, not least because some of the A shares are unshortable, and the transaction costs of setting up a ‘synthetic short‘ can eat up much of the potential profit.
$ 1975 $ November 12, 2008March 25, 2012 I’ve argued that we face a long Iraq hangover much as we suffered a long Vietnam hangover. In both cases, we attempted guns and butter . . . the butter during Vietnam being our attempts to aid the poor; the butter this time being our attempts to aid the rich. For those interested in divining parallels, here is a piece I wrote in the early stages of the post-Vietnam hangover, 33 years ago (I was six). One difference: we’re in a weaker position now. The debt on our balance sheet, in proportion to our economy, is more than twice what it was then. But another difference: for all President Ford’s decency, he was no Barack Obama. Leadership matters.
Love and Money November 11, 2008March 12, 2017 To get into the mood, here‘s Frank Sinatra. And now: LOVE . . . Keith Olbermann has some thoughts. . . . AND MARRIAGE Betsy Uprichard: ‘Forty-five years ago I picketed and went to jail for civil rights. Last week I was very proud to see that my efforts were not in vain. But now I find that my fellow citizens have voted against my right to marry a person of my own choosing. Discrimination and bigotry in another guise, in another time. Can you ask our incoming President to please try to find a way to give me the rights that all our other citizens enjoy by allowing me to marry my partner of 27 years for the third, and hopefully final, time?’ (Being from San Francisco, Betsy was first able to marry in February, 2004, when Mayor Newsome ordered the city and county to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Six months later the California Supreme Court voided those marriages, saying the mayor had no authority to do so. In 2005 and then again in 2007, the legislature voted to allow marriage, only to be vetoed by the governor. This May, the Court overturned the ban. For a second time, Betsy could marry her partner. Last week, by a narrow majority, California voters annulled that right – eliciting the aforelinked Keith Olbermann comment.) Here are things I think people on both sides of this issue might agree on: 1. The government should never, ever be allowed to tell churches whom they must or may not marry. 2. We all deserve equal rights under the law.* 3. Unless and until the Supreme Court makes a national ruling, the good people of Massachusetts (and their judges) may come down differently on this issue from the good people of Mississippi (and theirs). 4. In the meantime, if two people are legally married in a state (or country) that does recognize their right to do so, Uncle Sam should treat that married couple the same way it treats any other couple (even if Mississippi doesn’t). As for the President elect, I assume his primary focus will be the economy, energy, health care, education, and national security – not gay marriage. But there are three things I think he will do: First, he will keep the Supreme Court, where all this is likely to be decided eventually, from tilting even further right if and when progressive Justices Stevens (88) and/or Ginsberg (75) retire.He may even get the opportunity to tilt it back a click if one of the (younger) conservatives should go. Second, he will use the bully pulpit to bring folks along on this issue – especially in the black churches.Indeed, he has already done some of this.** Finally, I think he would sign a bill, if Congress passed one, requiring the federal government to recognize marriages performed in states where they are legal. * The government can set speed limits – but it can’t set a lower limit based on your gender or your skin color, your nationality or your political affiliation, your religious affiliation or your sexual orientation. That same reasoning should apply liquor licenses, hunting licenses, drivers’ licenses, peddlers’ licenses, concealed weapons permits, unemployment benefits, Medicare benefits, Social Security survivor’s benefits, college loans, pilots’ licenses, plumbers’ licenses . . . so maybe also marriage licenses? ** During the campaign, he went to Ebenezer Baptist Church and said that we need to get over homophobia in the African-American community — that “if we’re honest with ourselves, we’ll embrace our gay brothers and sisters instead of scorning them.” Or so recalled Michelle Obama this summer, saying, “Barack’s got the courage to talk to skeptical audiences. That’s why he told a crowd at a rally in Texas that gays and lesbians deserve equality. Now, the crowd got pretty quiet. But Barack said ‘now, I’m a Christian, and I praise Jesus every Sunday.’ And the crowd started cheering. Then he said, ‘I hear people saying things that I don’t think are very Christian with respect to people who are gay and lesbian.’ And you know what? The crowd KEPT cheering.” $$$ iPHONE TIPS AND TRICKS Click here. (Sorry; fumbled the link yesterday.) Tomorrow: Back to Money
Building a Different White House November 10, 2008March 12, 2017 iPHONE TIPS AND TRICKS I largely love my iPhone, but would have loved it more these last 18 months if I had known how to use it. Click here for the ‘tips and tricks’ several of which I had missed. W. Spooky to see this movie even as he is still President. I came away feeling it had to have been something of a cartoon (though what movie doesn’t oversimplify for the sake of drama or, of necessity, in trying to show a lifetime in two hours?). Could this really have been the man we elected? Twice? And yet, well, yes, this seems to have been more or less what happened. And there were at least two damning scenes it could have recreated but didn’t: the famous January 7, 2001 CIA briefing at Blair House, where the incoming President was told that Osama Bin Laden represented a ‘tremendous’ and ‘immediate’ threat but chose to ignore it . . . and his very first National Security Council meeting ten days into his Presidency, where the agenda already included a ‘Political-Military Plan for Post-Saddam Iraq Crisis.’ DOONESBURY Meanwhile, Garry Trudeau has a new paperback out, The War in Quotes. And you’re thinking, yes, we know all that. But it’s really worse than we remember. Use Amazon’s ‘look inside’ feature to read some of the quotes. RAHM A great choice for Chief of Staff. Brilliant, tough, savvy, principled – with the workings of both the White House and Congress in his blood and a close relationship with the President-elect. My guess is that he’ll be at least as tough in reining in the left wing of the Democratic Party as he is in pushing Republicans to compromise. He is a centrist, ‘DLC’ Democrat, as evidenced by his recent book, The Plan: Big Ideas for America, co-authored with DLC President Bruce Reed. And he is funny. Or at least easily made fun of. To get to know him better, you might enjoy this roast.
I Still Can’t Get Over It And It's Already Been Two Days -- I Should Let It Go? November 7, 2008March 12, 2017 NO DRAMA The hallmark of the Obama campaign was ‘Obama – no drama.’ That style bodes well for the next four years: serious people of good will working in common purpose to make things better. DRAMA Apparently, there was a little drama on the other side. And the woman selected as #2 thought that Africa is a country, with South Africa one of its regions, like the south of France. Click here. LET IT GO! I know . . . it’s probably not constructive and perhaps not even good sportsmanship to keep piling on. Yes, they took ads saying Obama wanted to give kindergartners comprehensive sex education, but we won, so what harm? And yet I find myself still signing on to ‘Team Obama’ at web boggle to help defeat Team McCain/Palin – even though they’ve disappeared. I know. Not healthy. And yet I feel the need to share the story of Skipp Orr, whom I met Tuesday night in Grant Park watching President-elect Obama take the stage. A long-time Obama supporter, Skip had flown in from Japan for this. (A pretty amazing guy, by the way: from ages 2 through 9 he suffered from a disease of his legs that required therapy at Warm Springs in the same pool FDR bathed in, yet fought the disease so effectively he not only regained full use of his legs, he nearly made the U.S. Olympic track team. But that’s not the story I want to share.) As President of Boeing Japan, he found himself at a Democrats Abroad meeting pitching John Kerry – and then found himself outed as a Democrat in the New York Times. The next day Karl Rove called Boeing headquarters noting his displeasure – and referring to the great deal of business Boeing does with the government. Basically, he wanted Orr fired. Wow. Like outing a CIA spy to punish her husband. Or firing a slew of Republican-appointed U.S. attorneys for not being partisan enough in their administration of Justice. Or – well – accusing your opponent of wanting to teach comprehensive sex education to kindergartners. I think it was even worse than most people realize. Monday: Something More Positive
Hope Won November 6, 2008March 12, 2017 DON’T SELL AMERICA SHORT* David Gergen summed it up perfectly yesterday: ‘Hope won.’ *But don’t sell all your RSW just yet, either, if you’re using it to hedge the market. Blake B.: ‘It is so wonderful to be proud to be an American again. I have received numerous messages from European friends cheering us on.’ ☞ In certain circles, just having European friends makes you suspect. Especially if they are French. But the Europeans do know a little about civilization . . . and civilization is not entirely a bad thing. OOPS Lots more to say on so many topics, but too sleepy to say it without making dumb mistakes – like this one I made Monday: Kay Lawson: ‘Sorry Andrew. Trig Van Palin is a male member of the human race, so he cannot be Sarah’s granddaughter.’ ☞ Oops. I thought Trig was always a girl’s name. But a more serious reason the conspiracy theory is probably wrong: Scott Nicol: ‘Incidence of down syndrome starts climbing at 30 years old and skyrockets at 40. Sarah was 44 when Trig was born. At that maternal age about 1 in 40 babies have down syndrome. For her teenage daughter the odds are about 1 in 1500.’ DON’T SELL YOUR GLDD Our dredging stock may be down, but revenues and earnings are up nicely. How many other businesses do you know that saw revenues jump 32% last quarter? So I continue to like Great Lakes Dredge & Dock for the long haul. Renewing our national infrastructure may be a theme of the next decade; and Dubai still has a lot of sand to move around.
Thank You November 5, 2008March 25, 2012 This is such a great day for America, I don’t want to spoil it by saying anything else.
Election Day November 4, 2008March 12, 2017 Please vote for Barack Obama. Don’t trust my judgment, trust Warren Buffet’s. Or Paul Volcker’s. Or Bob Rubin’s. Or Susan Eisenhower’s. Or Colin Powell’s. Or the Arizona Star. Or the Anchorage Daily News. Or the Chicago Tribune – endorsing a Democrat for the first time in 161 years. The world yearns for an American president in whose intelligence, judgment and goodwill it can trust; for whose experience and life story it can feel admiration; around whose leadership it can rally. The world yearns for an America it can root for again. And having much of the world rooting for us again would be good for our national security – and good for business. # Some Obamaramians have been working toward this day for 20 months. I think they can be excused this video. # And now, to lighten the tension over tonight’s results, a bit of comic relief: BOREALIS Delta is merging with Northwest, and supposedly remains psyched to deploy WheelTug® motors in its fleet of 737s. “We are counting the days,” says Borealis, “as final pieces slide into place so that we can start to test this first motor that is the right shape for the 737NG wheel.” I am counting the days as well: three thousand two hundred seventy-six of them since I first told you about this stock (“A Stock That’s Surely Going to Zero.”) It was around $3.50 a share then; it last traded at $2 (someone taking a tax loss?). We will grow old together with this stock. But I can think of worse things than rocking on the porch in such good company. Here (for the engineers on the porch) is their latest technical paper – the gist of which, as I understand it, is that fuel-efficient hybrids could be even more fuel-efficient with a Chorus Motor. And here is its companion paper, explaining the geopolitics of cobalt, which led to the geopolitics of neodymium, a Chinese-controlled rare earth metal fundamental to the current technology of hybrid cars – unless (you saw this coming) you use a Chorus Motor, in which case it’s not needed at all. The idea that supply security can arrive together with improved quality and reduced costs is an unexpected win-win proposal – but it is in fact why neodymium magnets supplanted cobalt in the 1980s. And it’s why Chorus is now ready to supplant neodymium. I know, I know. But I remind you of television. Invented in 1926, nobody made a dime from it until 1950 or so. Yet it did become quite popular. (Of course, I am also reminded that Philo Farnsworth, who invented it – and, more to the point, of his financial backers – whose ship never did come in.) Up at subsidiary Roche Bay, joint-partner AXI stock has fallen 95% from its high, yet AXI says the iron ore deposits are real, and that it now hopes to refine them into 98% pure nuggets on-site, in part because the heat from that process can be used to keep warm. It’s freezing up there. (I am taking some liberties with their press release; you can read it for yourself.) At $2 or $3 a share, Borealis is once again valued at $10-$15 million. Is it a wild, some would say delusional, speculation? Well, it’s a speculation – that’s for sure. But to me it seems like a lottery ticket where you have only one chance in five of winning (say) – so you will probably lose every penny – but that pays fifty times your money (say) if you win. That’s a bet few can afford to take, but a good bet nonetheless. Now get out there and vote for a brighter tomorrow.
Say, “Ah-merica” November 3, 2008March 12, 2017 VOTE FOR CHARLES! So now when you go to CharlesNolan.com you can actually buy stuff. This is very cool, because it saves your having to fly to new York, which saves your having to go barefoot through security and waiting in line for a cab from LaGuardia to his shop and booking a room at the hotel next door. In 10 minutes on line, you save two days of travel and at least $1,000 – so that gorgeous $798 blue wool double-face all-handmade winter coat actually nets you $202. And if $798 coats, or $580 boots, are not in your budget right now, use the ‘Wish List’ feature to send holiday shopping suggestions to your doting pa-pah. Or just go take a look and enjoy the videos of the Fall and Spring collections. ‘Windows shopping,’ so to speak (works, too, on a Mac). MEDICAL RECORDS John McCain won’t release crucial information about the number and location of metastasized cancer cells detected in connection with his 2000 surgery. Normally, of course, this would be none of anyone’s business – and, in any event, we all wish him a long and healthy life – but he hopes to be elected President of the United States tomorrow. Is he failing to release this information because it is so reassuring? Sarah Palin hasn’t release hers either, even though she promised on national TV to do so. Charles thinks this fits neatly with the conspiracy theory – that her newborn is actually her granddaughter. There was an awful lot of circumstantial evidence to give that theory wings. I have to assume it’s bogus . . . but then what is the reason not to release the records once you’ve promised to do so? Is the idea that Senator and Governor will allow their docs to tell all the day after the election? If so, that’s the day their supporters should vote for them. AMERICA I got into a DC cab to the airport Saturday driven by a high-spirited little old African man who reminded me a little of Bishop Desmond Tutu but whose name turned out to be Christopher. In a distinctive sort of sing-song he told me he was from Nigeria, had been driving a DC cab for 45 years. Yes, he said, he is registered to vote – he is voting for Obama. He is a Democrat. He voted for Jimmy Carter. I took him for perhaps 75 (he turns out to be 62), so when he started talking about ‘Daddy’ and ‘Mommy’ back in Nigeria, I asked tentatively whether they were still alive. They were: ‘Daddy is 89, Mommy is 86.’ He goes back every two or three years to visit. He has three children of his own, the eldest in her third year at Johns Hopkins Medical School. ‘Wow!’ I said. ‘God bless America,’ he said. His middle child runs the 200-meter dash at UCLA. ‘Wow,’ I said. ‘God bless America,’ he smiled. The youngest, 16, is doing well in high school. They all avoided getting mixed up in bad crowds. (Back in the 70’s, Washington was ‘the murder capital of America,’ Christopher reminded me; it’s much, much better now – ‘God bless America.’) His father went to Oxford. (And Christopher drives a cab?) He returned to become a professor of English at the University of Lagos. Christopher’s three older brothers were all sent to England to study and wound up staying. At 16, Christopher announced that he didn’t want to go to England, he wanted to go to America. His mother looked at him askance. ‘They speak English there, too,’ Christopher announced. ‘They do,’ his mother confirmed. They sent him to Howard University; he worked his way through driving a cab. Nigerians in DC all drive cabs, he said. It developed, as we neared the Delta Shuttle, that he is a computer engineer but drives on weekends – it’s in his blood. ‘God bless America,’ he said, as we parted. Indeed. Tomorrow: I reveal my Presidential preference.* *In the meantime, vote for Charles.