KEITH OLBERMANN DEBUTS TONIGHT
OUR LGBT DINNER WITH THE PRESIDENT THURSDAY . . .
. . . made the front page of yesterday’s New York Times. (Not mentioned: our host for the evening, Neil Patrick Harris, who hosted the Tony Awards.) It’s not too late to sign up. Folks coming from 22 states. Straight allies welcome! [Full disclosure: we all have a stake in seeing the President re-elected.]
Guru (who, as I told you, exited at $19 a share, up from $7.10 when suggested three months ago): “Given the cautious outlook for the market and the company’s recent comments that they may not complete a partnership til 2012, I can’t make a case for holding on now [with the stock down at $13.69]. I think there may be better buying opportunities.”
Guru (who watched the stock drop 50 cents back to $1.15 Friday, down from $1.25 when first suggested last August): “Oh well. All we know is that the PTH study didn’t work as Novartis wanted it to. We dont know why. Lots of reasons a thing might not work. Today’s announcement has no impact on the validity of the previous 8 oral calcitonin studies, which were positive, or on the 3 previous studies on oral glp-1, which were positive. It does, however, remind us that consistency in biology goes only so far and that in oral delivery of protein, we have had a lot of failures. EMIS at $1/share is really like an option: if the data are positive in calcitonin in the 3Q 2011, the stock should rally significantly from here. If not, it drops to zero. Today’s announcement probably means it will rally less than if PTH had succeeded: I was hoping that the calcitonin data would be a validation of this technology in lots of proteins, but today’s announcement says we really must proceed on a case-by-case basis. It’s hard to believe that if Novartis announces in 3Q 2011 that oral calcitonin has reduced fractures in women with osteoporosis that EMIS won’t rally towards 3 or more, perhaps more like 5. It gives them a drug that can be sold in the marketplace for significant revenue. Also, the NVO multi dose trial of glp-1 is going on and we should hear that data later this year. The NVO multi-dose trial is based on some kind of success NVO saw in a single dose trial last year. BUT always lots of uncertainty in this business.”
Quote of the Day
Market economics as currently practiced often ... includes only what's countable, not what counts.~Rocky Mountain Institute
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