Buy The Dips, High Inflation Will End Soon, argues a Seeking Alpha contributor.

I think there’s a good chance he’s right, though it’s anyone’s guess, because in addition to the measurable factors he assesses, like supply and demand, there’s the psychological.  Forty years ago I learned in interviewing Fed Chairman Paul Volcker that “running the Fed and charting appropriate monetary policy, have as much to do with psychology as with finance.”

But even if this inflation is just a bump caused largely by dislocations from the pandemic, I wouldn’t be too quick to “buy the dips” unless you’re truly in it for the long haul.

The market isn’t cheap here.  And have you read Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham has a scarier prediction than his market crash call?

That said, our special situations are, I hope, well, special.

For example: PRKR.  As best I can tell, their lawsuits are substantive (see, for example, this from last week).  Patents are supposed to be enforceable.  Big Tech is not supposed to steal from American inventors any more than (say) China is supposed to.  So even if we do have a brutal bad bear market, I don’t see juries taking pity on Qualcomm or Intel, nor either of them being unable to pay up, should the trials go our way.  Only with money you can truly afford to lose; but I continue to like our odds.



Have a great week!

 

 

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