The Magic Kingdom Of Inequality May 12, 2021May 11, 2021 I hate Zooms. This one is so worth watching. We have to restore America’s middle class! They — not the rich — are the real job creators . . . as Nick Hanauer long ago explained (6 minutes, if you still haven’t seen it). I cede the rest of my time to Abigail Disney’s stories of Walt and Roy . . . and to Dan Price’s fantastic story . . . and to Sarah Anderson’s stark research (51 of the country’s 100 largest low-wage employers gave their CEOs 29% raises to help them through the pandemic while their frontline employees made 2 percent less — $15.3 million, on average versus $28,187.) Watch! Thoughtful — and foundationally important.
Can We Compete With China May 11, 2021May 10, 2021 The Economist: China Is Betting the West Is In Irreversible Decline. Paul London wonders . . . will the opposition party allow us to compete? He argues it will be impossible if China keeps growing 3 or 4 times as fast as we do . . . and that the President’s infrastructure programs are the way to surge U.S. growth so that we can. Worth reading! RECAF: In the “nothing is easy” department, here’s the bearish case (or one of them, anyway). Asked abut it, my guru replied: “This is commonplace in the oilfield. In south Louisiana, oyster fishermen would get damage to their oyster properties when oil companies operated on a shallow water state lease. Sometimes they sue. Sometimes they win. The farmer will get something. Life will go on.” Even so, having had such a quick triple, consider selling some so from here on you’re playing with house money.
Cap’n Joe And Crypto May 10, 2021May 10, 2021 Captain Joe has 1.47 million subscribers. His latest video reviews WheelTug. John Hamilton: “As a longtime reader from north of the border, I’d like your comments/opinion on the different cryptocurrencies being traded on the public markets.” → Let me first offer the wisdom of two guys, aged 90 and 97, who are a lot smarter than I am. Charlie’s last line — a throwaway — made me laugh out loud. Like gold, crypto is a bet against the dollar. Like gold, crypto is expensive to mine. Its value is its scarcity, so mining more of it does no one (other than the miners) any good. I’d prefer to see that energy go to building schools or hospitals or a smart grid. Unlike physical gold: > Crypto is easy to buy, sell, and “store.” > Crypto may be useful to criminals. > Crypto has no alternative uses, like jewelry or dentistry. I hate to think the world’s government-issued currencies — especially the U.S. dollar — will lose value relative to gold or crypto, though with inflation or chaos, they well may. So I do see how the price of crypto and/or gold could be higher tomorrow or a year or ten years from now. But buying one bitcoin for $57,000 today to bet against the dollar carries considerable risk even with the looming possibility of inflation. After the bitcoin price had fallen from a then-high of $14,000 to $3,200 a couple of years ago, I tried to buy 10 of them . . . mainly on a lark, but also with a sense of the rhythm of such things. At the time, you had to set up a new account somewhere, and Robinhood seemed easiest, so I started to do that — but bailed when Robinhood asked for my bank password. That false start has thus far cost me $567,000. Oh, well. It was like the time I passed up the chance to buy 10 shares of Berkshire Hathaway at $300, back when the above-referenced nonagenarians were already attracting notice. Had I pulled that trigger — and held on for 40 years — my $3,000 would today be $4.3 million. Oh, well. Two big differences: (1) My botched bitcoin bonanza would have taken just 2 years to balloon. Score one for crypto! And it could octuple again in short order — or crash — neither of which Berkshire is likely to do. (2) Buying bitcoin at $3,200 would have been speculating. It had (and has) no intrinsic value. Buying Berkshire Hathaway at $300, by contrast, would have been investing. There was intrinsic value in its several businesses, and in the brains engaged in trying to make those businesses grow. Two important notes: (1) In the face of potential inflation, shares in companies that can raise prices may, over the long run, do just as well as gold or bitcoin — or better. Over time, the stock market has always outpaced inflation. (2) Selling — or spending — bitcoin in which you have a profit subjects that profit to tax. All that said: I don’t have a clue where crypto is headed. I missed that boat and will just plod along swinging for the fences a different way: investing in various potentially-profitable enterprises that could make the world a little better, and me a little rich, if they succeed. (Have I got an Aquablation Therapy for you!) Speaking of which: enjoy Cap’n Joe. Have a great week!
Money You Can REALLY Afford to Lose – A Tale Of Two Barry’s May 7, 2021 But first . . . The Conservative Case For Big Spending. That’s how I’d re-title this short column by David Brooks (“Our Pathetic Herd Immunity Failure”). It’s about distrust and doom . . . but also the way out. If you have a friend who’s “socially liberal but fiscally conservative” — “and that’s why he’s a Republican” — pass it on? And perhaps also remind him it was Democrats Clinton and Obama who tamed the Reagan/Bush deficits; Mitch McConnell’s Republicans — pre-Covid! — who needlessly sent it soaring again? And now . . . Barry #1 chipped in $1,000. “I’ve been feeling like it’s time to think about control of Congress. Thanks for the reminder.” → Chipping in to help save the world must be done with money you can truly afford to lose (’cause you just did). But it’s such a nice world, isn’t it? Barry #2 is the Yale B-School professor who co-founded Honest Tea, eventually acquired by Coke. I had the good fortune to be an early investor. Getting in on or near the ground floor is highly risky; and even when it works, generally requires tremendous patience. In this case, 12 years. Even so, my investment mix has skewed ever more toward start-ups because (a) I like to swing for the fences; (b) stocks, bonds, and real estate have seemed pricey; (c) many of these startups aim to make life better — prevent dementia . . . incentivize more energy-efficient homes . . . improve air travel. (And “if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you,” as they used to say — except that I really do.) Also (d), under current law, profits made in such investments held for five years may be free of tax — an incentive to encourage new enterprise. I haven’t written much about this because — unlike PRKR or CNF, say — you can’t easily take a flier on them. But now you can! I’ve found a new way for you to lose money! Barry #2 has co-founded an encore to Honest Tea called Real Made Oats. I put a bunch of cash into it the traditional way 18 months ago; but now, as you’ll see here, you can invest as little as $100. If you do, you really have to kiss the money goodbye. But who knows? Twelve years from now, we might make 10 times our money. And it’s fun. But only with money you can truly afford to lose. (Buy a box first to see if you even like it? The mulberry and chia is my favorite. I add a teaspoon of erythritol to make it a little sweeter, but that’s me.) Have a great weekend! Don’t forget to save the world!
“Think About That For A Second” May 6, 2021 Thomas Friedman: . . . “Denying the legitimacy of our last election is becoming a prerequisite for being elected as a Republican in 2022,” observed Gautam Mukunda, host of Nasdaq’s “World Reimagined” podcast . . . . . . Think about that for a second. To be a leader in today’s G.O.P. . . . you have to accept everything Trump has said about the election — without a shred of evidence — and ignore everything his own attorney general, F.B.I. director and election security director said . . . What kind of deformed party will such a dynamic produce? A party so willing to be marinated in such a bald-faced lie will lie about anything, including who wins the next election and every one after that . . . Perhaps the most important column you’ll read all year. (Thanks, Lev.) On a related topic, check out The Fall Of Civilizations, starting with Episode 1. Beautifully shot and fascinating. It, too, makes you think. (Thanks, Andy.) And (if all that weren’t fun enough) . . . PRKR: Last we heard, ParkerVision’s jury trial against Qualcomm had been postponed from July 6 to “November or December, if then,” because of the judge’s workload. I was heartened to learn yesterday that the judge recently denied Qualcomm’s request for a Hearing to discuss the schedule of required deadlines that would have led up to that July 6 trial. Those deadlines, he ruled, still stand. I’m neither a lawyer nor a tea-leaf reader, but this gives me the sense Judge Byron is serious about the trial, even though he had to push it back.
Slouching Toward Authoritarianism May 4, 2021May 3, 2021 Robert Hubbell writes a daily letter you can subscribe to here. It’s generally better than mine — which rankles. But Robert Hubbell never told you about RECAF (that has tripled in the past two months) . . . . . . or PRKR and CTHR (that have tripled in the past six) . . . . . . or SPRT (that tripled one exceptionally weird day last month) . . . . . . or GLDD (that took half a lifetime — “silt accumulates” — but has now tripled, too). So there! (Conveniently, none of the disasters I’ve suggested over the years comes immediately to mind.) (Well, “Google Puts and Soap Slivers.”) But I digress. The point is: read Robert Hubbell’s excellent Slouching Toward Authoritarianism: . . . last week, the Florida legislature passed [a bill] which makes it a crime to “deplatform” a candidate for statewide office in Florida. . . . The bill imposes a fine of $250,000 per day for banning a candidate and subjects the social media company to criminal proceedings . . . The bill is blatantly unconstitutional . . . but social media platforms will be wary of testing the bill’s provisions under pain of criminal prosecution. . . . Suppose a candidate sends a tweet calling for his supporters to attack the Capitol and hang the Vice-President of the United States who is presiding over the count of the Electoral College ballots. If Twitter “deplatforms” that candidate, under Florida’s new law, Twitter must evaluate its risk of criminal proceedings and a $250,000 per day fine before deplatforming that candidate. . . . . . . In Texas, the legislature is considering a bill that would subject parents to criminal liability for assisting their child or teen with gender transition. Let me repeat that statement: Texas is considering charging parents with a crime for making medical decisions they believe to be in the best interests of their children’s long-term mental health. See KSAT, “Texas bill looks to criminalize parents who support transgender medical procedures for minors.” (“Mother says she’s willing to become a criminal to save her son’s life.”) . . . Oklahoma and Florida have passed laws that grant . . . immunity to anyone who hits a protester with his car while “fleeing a riot.” . . . Republicans “clutch their pearls” in feigned outrage when anyone suggests that they intend to apply these laws to anyone other than bona fide criminals. Oh, yeah? The Arkansas legislature just held a hearing on its anti-transgender bill. A father of a transgender son spoke for 30 seconds over his allotted two minutes. See The Independent, “Father concerned at anti-trans law arrested at hearing for going 30 seconds over his speaking limit.” For that offense, he was arrested, led away in handcuffs, jailed for several hours, and charged with disorderly conduct. Meanwhile, [those speaking in favor of the bill were allowed to speak for up 40 minutes.] Got that? In Arkansas, if you exceed your allotted time by 30 seconds speaking in favor of a parent’s right to make medical decisions for their children, you are arrested. But if you speak in favor of criminalizing gender transition therapy, you can take all the time you want. And they expect us to believe they will fairly apply laws that seem to give permission to drivers to run over protesters? → There’s more. Read it all? And if it moves you to help save democracy, please click here. BONUS: When German Engineers Get Bored (thanks, Joey!): https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/WHEN-GERMAN-ENGINEERS-GET-BORED.mp4
The Man In The Center Of It All May 2, 2021May 1, 2021 John: “Over the years I have not been a huge fan of Chuck Schumer, nor understood why he was/is Senate Democratic leader. This interview may have moved me.” → For those following this pivotal year in our history . . . in the center of which Senator Schumer falls . . . so worth the listen. BONUS: Have a great week.
Okay — What’s The Catch? May 2, 2021May 24, 2021 PRKR has filed a new lawsuit, this one against LG Electronics. It will be interesting to see whether last week’s Buffalo settlement was a one-off, or the first of several dominos to fall. New York City real estate agent to his young clients (from A Wealth of Pigeons by Steve Martin and Harry Bliss): “It’s a hundred and ninety-five million. Now, I know what you’re thinking. ‘Okay, what’s the catch?'” BONUS How to fix gerrymandering: Ranked choice voting in larger “multi-winner” districts.