Stocks And Asylum March 17, 2021March 16, 2021 An oft-failed promoter recently predicted stock market disaster if Biden won . . . yet somehow the market keeps hitting new highs. The Dow is up about 14% since the election. (You can see here how the market’s done under each recent president: up 228% under Clinton, down 26% under George W. Bush, up 148% under Obama, up 54% under Trump. Better under blue presidents than red; though to be fair, of the four above, all but Trump had eight years to strut their stuff. In their first terms, only Clinton and Obama did better than Trump.) Disaster will of course one day strike. Panics — otherwise known as “massive buying opportunities” — come along every so often, as do bear markets. Whether this next happens Thursday or a year from now — or five or ten — I have no idea. The cause certainly won’t be that competence and integrity have been restored to our government. Nor will it be the bump in the number of young immigrants flowing north. The number may seem huge — and there is certainly a legitimate debate to be had about when asylum should be granted and when not — but consider that we’ve lost an extra 600,000 people to Covid in the past year, the preponderance of whom were past their productive years. So, purely in economic terms, if we had a bump of 300,000 young people eager to work hard at jobs most Americans are unwilling to do . . . paying Social Security taxes into the system rather than withdrawing checks . . . it would be barely noticeable in a country of 330 million. And if anything, in a small way, an economic plus. (See: Immigrants Contribute Greatly to U.S. Economy.) The leader of the Republican party relentlessly downplayed the Covid crisis, which misled a lot of good people, with tragic consequences. So, too, has he relentlessly misled a lot of good people about immigrants. Those seeking asylum are not rapists and murderers; they are mostly God-fearing Christians seeking to work hard for a better life. Economically, they are, if anything, as I say, a plus. See also: Biden Chose Prosperity Over Vengeance. BONUS: REOPEN THE SCHOOLS NOW Yep. BONUS: CNF Yep. The company seems to have regained its footing. In case it can keep growing at this pace — China is a big country — the stock, at four or five times annualized earnings, could become the winner I have long hoped. Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Light Reading March 14, 2021March 14, 2021 Trump’s Strategy for Returning To Power Is Already Clear — by Masha Gessen. (Can New York District Attorney Cy Vance Nail Him? — by Jane Mayer.) Britain may be in even worse shape — by Umair Haque. The Brits haven’t had the massive shift in governing philosophy (from Trump/McConnell to Biden/Schumer) that we’ve just had — a change that gives us, at least, a fighting chance. Have a great week.
Swinging For Fences March 11, 2021March 27, 2021 PRKR. Do you read the Waco Tribune? What I like about this headline — Waco jury: Intel must pay $2 billion for patent infringement — is that the case was decided before the same judge overseeing ParkerVision’s case against Intel. And the award was pretty close to what the plaintiff was suing for. Could that happen for us as well? If you’ve not yet bought a few shares with money you can truly afford to lose, I refer you back to last month’s pitch laying out the reasons I think it’s a good gamble. (In the interim, the trial date has slipped from May 3 to July 6.) [Now slipped further still. See 3/29/21 post.] ANIX. Their breast cancer vaccine, under development with the Cleveland Clinic, will either prove effective or not. If not — a definite possibility — our $4 or $5 may be lost. But if it does prove effective — not to mention other irons in their fire, like this one — we could see a 20-fold jump in the stock price. RECAF is drilling for oil in Africa. We desperately need to wean the world off fossil fuels. In the meantime, we need oil, and this company — with drilling rights on an area the size of Switzerland — seems to hold great promise. I’ve bought shares at prices ranging from $1.50 to $2.44. I don’t worry that my owning shares will cause climate change. I do dream of allocating a big score to trying to combat it. (For starters: electing people who “believe in” the climate crisis.) You know who swings for fences? Elon Musk. His latest? A little artificial intelligence of our own. I’m gonna be so smart!
Open The Schools; Fix The Filibuster March 10, 2021March 10, 2021 Open the schools: CDC misinterpreted our research on opening schools. It should loosen the rules now. Keeping schools closed or even partially closed, based on what we know now, is harming children. . . . Also: The Problem With The CDC’s Six-Foot Rule For Schools. Fix the filibuster: Norm Ornstein suggests Three reforms Manchin and Sinema might consider. And possible face-savers I’ve suggested to help Senators Manchin and Sinema take the leap: It’s an emergency! When so many people are hurting, it’s in the national interest to act. Make it temporary. A rule change that will “sunset” at the end of 2022. Apply the change only to bills that enjoy wide-majority public support. Allow a “talking filibuster” (where senators actually have to filibuster) for up to two weeks, so senators have more time to hear from the public and/or reach compromise. Or how about this? Exempt from the filibuster any bill that would enhance the ability of American citizens 18 or older to exercise their right to vote, as that right is fundamental to democracy. This is relevant, because once Chief Justice Roberts gutted the Voting Rights Act, hundreds of attempts have been made — some successfully — to suppress the vote. The latest, as reported by Marc Elias: Yesterday, Iowa’s Governor signed a voter suppression bill into law. Today, we sued. For the past two months, I’ve been sounding the alarm on the slew of voter suppression bills Republicans are introducing in legislatures across the country. On Monday, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R) was the first to sign one of these terrible bills into law. The law adds new restrictions at every stage of the voting process, including: Reducing the number of days when voters can register before elections Significantly reducing the number of days when voters can request absentee ballots Shortening the absentee voting period by more than one week Reducing the number of days for most voters to return their absentee ballots Criminalizing the act of assisting voters with returning their absentee ballots Shortening the length of time when polls are open on election day On behalf of League of United Latin American Citizens of Iowa, we have challenged provisions of this bill as unconstitutional. While Iowa politicians may claim these provisions ensure “election integrity,” they do nothing of the sort. They are a result of the record turnout in Iowa and the nation in 2020. This bill will impose unconstitutional burdens on minority, elderly and disabled voters and cannot be permitted to stand. We remain committed to fighting for voting rights across the country to ensure every eligible voter can have their ballot counted in 2022. Just yesterday the conservative group Heritage Action announced a $10 million initial investment in lobbying state legislatures for more voter suppression laws. That is why we are preparing to bring voting rights cases across the country, all aimed at protecting voters and voting rights in 2022. For a the most complete list of cases to watch, visit https://www.democracydocket.com/our-cases/. Let me ask those of you who are Republicans: which of those added restrictions do you favor, and why? Anybody?
Greed Is Good — To A Point March 9, 2021March 8, 2021 But first . . . so important, I’m linking to it again: Democrats’ Only Chance to Stop the GOP Assault on Voting Rights If the party doesn’t pass new protections, it could lose the House, Senate, and White House within the next four years. . . . More and more Democrats are coming to recognize that “this isn’t just about trying to do something now that we can do later. This is about doing something now that we may not get the chance to do again for another 50 years.” Democrats face an unforgiving equation: a fleeting window in which to act, and potentially lasting consequences if they don’t. “If you look at all the stakes that are involved,” Sarbanes continued, “the notion that you would miss this opportunity becomes incomprehensible.” → We need to exempt HR1 from the filibuster so people’s right to vote can be protected. And now . . . Billionaire Ray Dalio says we need to reform capitalism to make it work for everyone. (An interview.) We must reform capitalism, not abandon it. (An op-ed.) . . . Can’t we all — capitalists, socialists, Republicans and Democrats — agree on that? Can’t we all agree that whatever system we have, it must do a great job of both increasing the size of the pie and dividing it well? If we can agree that these things are essential because the alternatives are terrible, then people of different ideologies will be more civil with each other and more willing to work through their disagreements thoughtfully so that we can achieve agreement for the good of the whole. We must figure out how to do that in a collaborative and skilled way. If we can’t do that, we will have a civil war of some form that will tragically tear us apart and shrink the pie for everyone. Billionaire Nick Hanauer agrees– The dirty secret of capitalism — and a new way forward. In short: greed is good — to a point.
History Then And Now March 8, 2021March 7, 2021 FIFTY YEARS AGO: The amazing story of a citizen break-in to the FBI — under cover of the Ali-Frazier fight — that changed history. (Thanks, Glenn!) JANUARY 5TH: The disgraced former president’s “war council” meeting, just before the deadly attack on Congress. With more reporting here: January 5 War Council at Trump International May Have Had More Attendees Than Previously Known. And does it bother anyone that the disgraced former president’s National Security Advisor — an admitted, pardoned perjurer whom the acting attorney general had urgently warned against hiring and whom then FBI director James Comey was urged not to pursue — and who led “lock her up chants” on national television in the run-up to the 2016 election . . . does it bother anyone that he called for the military to overturn the results of the 2020 election? Does it bother anyone that the pardoned perjurer’s younger brother, Lieutenant-General Charles Flynn, seems to have played a key role in preventing the National Guard from coming to Congress’s rescue, hour after hour after hour, on January 6? I don’t buy the conspiracy theories that Democrats are pedophile cannibal Satanists or that Jewish space lasers set California’s wildfires. They seem far-fetched. But the theory that two brothers in league with the disgraced former president abetted an attack on the United States Congress? That seems to have happened. I’m wondering whether the younger Flynn should be tried for dereliction of duty. Or treason. Or dishonorably discharged. Sorry Friday’s post went up late: Which Way Do You Lean? Have a great week!
Which Way Do You Lean? March 6, 2021March 6, 2021 It’s so important to the Republican Party to: Repeal Obamacare (they’ve tried more than 52 times!). Freeze the minimum wage at $7.25 (forcing taxpayers to subsidize corporations whose employees require food stamps). Repeal the estate tax on billionheirs. Thwart gun safety measures even NRA members support. And of course, make it more difficult for certain people to vote. It’s so important to the Democratic Party to: Repeal the filibuster so we can . . . Enact HR1 to restore voting rights (here’s what that bill would do). Reverse ever-increasing inequality (that leads to economic and social collapse — see Nick Hanauer). Put millions to work revitalizing our infrastructure. Enact comprehensive immigration reform (of the type the Senate passed 68-32 in 2013). And, of course, empower the citizens of Washington, DC (“no taxation without representation!”). McConnell ‘s commitment to gridlock-when-a-Democrat-holds-the-White-House has needlessly dragged the country down, like ankle weights on a marathoner. (Separately, his appalling disregard for fairness has allowed the minority to stack the Supreme Court in its favor.) There’s almost enough support to break his stranglehold the rule — More Democrats join the effort to kill the filibuster as a way of saving Biden’s agenda — but not quite. Here are a few possible face-savers to help Senators Manchin and Sinema take the leap: It’s an emergency! When so many people are hurting, it’s in the national interest to act. Make it temporary. A rule change that will “sunset” at the end of 2022. Apply the change only to bills that enjoy wide-majority public support. Allow a “talking filibuster” (where senators actually have to filibuster) for up to two weeks, so senators have more time to hear from the public and/or reach compromise. Have a great weekend!
Lose Weight AND The Filibuster March 4, 2021 All my best books have been written by other people. For example: The Blue Zones, that I could have sworn I’ve told you about but, if not, no matter: I’m telling you about it now. I listened to it on Audible and then bought a dozen copies for others, one of whom just texted me out of the blue (so to speak): “Thank you for giving me this book — it has changed my life.” “Really?? Tell!!” “I’ve lost weight, have more energy, and feel so much more positive about the future.” This got me kind of excited. I asked if he’d share with us exactly what changes he’d made to produce these results, thinking he would tell me he’s started eating more beans (as I have). Instead: The Blue Zones was simply life-changing. It started with a first read and being struck by the power of positive change. Step 1: having the courage to go back to the “personal blue zone” section and TAKE THAT FIRST STEP. It took me three months to do that but I came out of the election season and on Nov. 8th woke up and realized that I was stressed and fearful. I (and so many millions) had worked so hard but I didn’t feel like it had helped — we had a very difficult Election Day in North Carolina. Step 2: I started to walk. I walk everywhere. It clears my head, it provides a welcome and open way to interact with a friend, and has helped me to lose 12 pounds and counting. Step 3: I keep going back to the section on the power of loving as detailed in the Sardinian Blue Zone. Thanks for this remarkable read…..I am enormously appreciative. Walking, for sure. I love to think this book helped. Or maybe he just feels so much better because the tweets have stopped. Competence and integrity have been restored to our government. To keep feeling positive about the future we need to abolish, or at least modify, the filibuster: Democrats’ Only Chance to Stop the GOP Assault on Voting Rights. (Must read; thanks, Steve!) Certainly for things that enjoy 70% popular approval, why should a minority of senators — representing an even smaller minority of people (Idaho has as many senators as California) — be able to thwart the popular will? Without so much as taking to the floor to actually filibuster? Is a compromise forged in 1789 to accommodate differing views on slavery still the right balance today, when most people agree slavery is an abomination? It’s not realistic to change the Constitution’s allocation of two senators per state. But could Washington, DC, which has more residents than Wyoming, have two, too? And could we make America a little less of a minority-rule country by curtailing the filibuster? And end-running the Electoral College? Expect to hear a lot more about the filibuster in the months to come.
Democracy Dies In Darkness . . . The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign to Save It March 3, 2021March 2, 2021 Here is the inside story of the Washington Post: Marty Baron, Jeff Bezos, Donald Trump and the eight years that reshaped The Washington Post — and journalism. Baron, who retired Sunday, expected to manage a newspaper during hard times. Instead, he found unimagined opportunities and challenge. And here is The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election: . . . based on access to the group’s inner workings, never-before-seen documents and interviews with dozens of those involved from across the political spectrum, it is the story of an unprecedented, creative and determined campaign whose success also reveals how close the nation came to disaster. “Every attempt to interfere with the proper outcome of the election was defeated,” says Ian Bassin, co-founder of Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan rule-of-law advocacy group. “But it’s massively important for the country to understand that it didn’t happen accidentally. The system didn’t work magically. Democracy is not self-executing.” . . . We are in the midst of a Cold Civil War. On one side, the forces of democracy. On the other, forces whose fascistic rebel leader has been denounced by the top Republican but embraced by the Republican Party at large. SpiceJet and WheelTug conclude agreement for 400 slots of the state-of-the-art electric taxi system. Inch by inch.