Plant A Tree — How Scientists Got It So Wrong November 15, 2019December 8, 2019 But first: Mark Jansen: “I’m in Turin for a conference, and tonight the hotel bar TVs were tuned not to soccer or sports highlights but to the US congressional impeachment hearings. I pray the US will once again exemplify the ‘better angels of our nature,’ as our first Republican president described. The world is watching.” → Yes. Which wolf will we feed? And second: Have you met Mondaire Jones? I find his life story more appealing than Trump’s or Wilbur Ross’s or Paul Manafort’s or Roy Cohn’s. Or Lindsey Graham’s or Jim Jordan’s or Daryl Issa’s or Trey Gowdy’s or Devon Nunez’s or Kellyanne Conway’s. They seem to be feeding the wrong wolf. And now: Plant a tree. “By looking at inspired local lessons learned around the world, we [see] how forests can fight climate change.” One of many happy-gene “reasons to be cheerful.” Two of my friends agree with Trump that this whole climate hysteria is nonsense. They might both be drawn to a validating headline like this one: How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong. I hope so. Because if they click, they’ll see that scientists have grossly UNDER-estimated the crisis. One of my Trumpist friends writes: As you know, I am a skeptic of the global warming hysteria, and believe that any and all human activity has at most an infinitesimal impact on the climate, which is primarily and ultimately dependent upon how much solar energy reaches the Earth. For five decades I have been a semi-student of solar cycles, after my old boss at the economics department at Citibank and I studied the weak solar cycle of the early 1970s that caused widespread crop failures in the Northern Hemisphere and was largely responsible (with the Arab oil embargoes) for the great inflation of the 1970s. I have long thought the general warming trend of the last several decades was a transitory cyclical condition, and that we are more likely to be facing one or more 11-year very weak and erratic solar cycles, which will produce global cooling, perhaps severely. This may now be starting, and so I suspect we are much more likely to see cooler, maybe much cooler, temperatures for perhaps several decades to come. I replied: We are dumping 40 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year, plus methane. That accumulates, regardless of 11-year solar cycles. You have concluded that we could put TRILLIONS of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere with no effect. You believe these 11,000 scientists haven’t thought about it as clearly as you; and are SO certain of your position, SO certain there’s no appreciable chance the scientists are right, you would put the lives of all future generations at risk. Really? He replied (in effect): “Yep.” Have a great weekend.
But Does It Rise . . . Part 2 November 14, 2019November 13, 2019 Nick Kristoff: “My column explores the impeachment testimony but also considers: What would happen if President Trump were a high school principal who suspended the police chief’s son and then offered to take the boy back if the police department would investigate his ex-wife before an upcoming child custody hearing?” Jonathan: “My Fidelity statement this month shows a $30 fee against my 1500 shares of CNF. The rep explained that the bank holding the ADRs charges two cents a share each year. I don’t think I’d want to pay these fees for twenty years waiting for this horse to come in. (Right now I’m down 9 percent.) Also, I’d be 93 by that time.” → True. I forgot to warn you about those. But five years from now you will have added a dime to your cost — which would be trivial if this worked out. Earnings are growing at 20% a year, yet the stock sells at just 3.5 times those earnings. Normally, a company growing that fast might sell at 20 times. So imagine that five years from now the earnings had doubled and the market had come to accord the stock a still-modest 10X multiple. Our $5 stock would then be more like $30. So this dime in fees would not really matter. This speculation could blow up in some way, for sure; so ONLY buy CNF with money you can truly afford to lose. But don’t worry about the dime. Now, back to the hearings. In case you missed it when I offered this last week (forgive me, but I think it’s important): Congress’s job is to make Americans’ lives better. So far in 2019, the Democratic House has passed bills that would lower prescription drug prices, raise wages, fight government corruption, require universal background checks, provide for paper ballot backups, reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, prevent citizens from being fired for being gay, assure equal pay for equal work, fight climate change, restore net neutrality — and more. That’s their job and they’ve done it. Those bills are among the 250 that the Republican Senate refuses to consider. But Congress has another responsibility. Each member swore an oath to protect and defend the Constitution. If we had a president who – to take a ridiculous hypothetical example just to make the point – gave Russia all of Europe in return for a $10 billion personal bribe, not even Lindsey Graham would defend that as acceptable. The House would vote to impeach; the Senate would vote to convict. Clearly that is not what happened. The purpose of the House proceedings is to find out what DID; and then to decide whether it warrants impeachment. Ukraine is just one country in Europe, not all of Europe, after all. And Putin has taken over only the Russian-speaking part of it, not all of it — that’s all he wants. (There is precedent for this. As Malcolm Gladwell recounts in Talking To Strangers, Neville Chamberlain assured England Hitler only wanted the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia, the Sudetenland, not all of it. But then, as keen students of history will recall, one thing led to another.) However benign or justified Putin’s intentions may appear to Trump, Ukraine is under active military invasion by Russia. Ukrainians are quite literally dying for their freedom from Russian domination. The $391 million in promised military aid was desperately needed this past summer, when Trump — as has now been endlessly confirmed — held it up for personal gain. And that’s what the hearings are about. (Separately, 1,027 Republican and Democratic former federal prosecutors have declared Trump has committed multiple indictable offenses, which one might think would be enough to warrant impeachment — as would his shocking debasement of the office. But these hearings are about a months-long scheme to extort a struggling young democracy under lethal attack from Russia in order to improve Trump’s reelection prospects.)
But Does It Rise To The Level? November 13, 2019November 13, 2019 As the public impeachment hearings begin today, watch Lindsey Graham make the case for impeachment with clarity, concision, and conviction here and here. After all: House Republicans took an oath — just as service members do. Watch their 30-second ads here and here. If you know a Republican who believes in the rule of law, Republicans for the Rule of Law would seem a must visit. It features quotes from Mike Pence and others with whom I don’t usually agree. The group makes ads like these. Click those two Lindsey Graham clips — and enjoy the hearings.
Wolves November 12, 2019November 11, 2019 But first . . . Wrote David Frum some months ago: “This tweet deserves to be quoted forever.” So it’s not too late: @spacebnb Some people think he’s playing chess when actually his aides are trying to keep him from eating the pieces. (Or you could read the longer version, by Anonymous, shipping next Tuesday.) And second: Among the many worthy Veteran’s Day posts and stories yesterday was a link to Jason Kander’s Veterans Community Project and their wonderful “tiny houses.” OK. And now: Yesterday, the talking dog. Today, more profoundly: wolves. From Sara Softness (thanks!): An elderly Cherokee Native American was teaching his grandchildren about life. He said to them, “A fight is going on inside me, it is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One wolf is evil — he is fear, anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, competition, superiority, and ego. “The other is good — he is joy, peace, love, hope, sharing, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, friendship, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. “This same fight is going on inside you, and inside every other person, too.” They thought about it for a minute and then one child asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?” The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.” → “Deep,” as the stoners used to say. No?
Chickens Are Smarter Than They Look November 10, 2019November 10, 2019 I’ve stopped eating octopus — with considerable regret — and now may have to stop eating other animals as well. It just doesn’t seem right to eat animals that can pick locks and play video games. Dogs, meanwhile, may be able to start speaking to us in sentences. No kidding. Take a look. (Clearly, I’m taking one more day off. Enjoy. Thanks, Glenn.) Oh, and wait — did you see this?! Turns out, you can saw through Trump’s famous, beautiful, vitally important, game-changing, Mexican-funded, multi-billion-dollar wall with a $100 saw from Home Depot. “Oops.” Finally: Nick Kristoff urges us not to become numb. Thither, tyranny. Not what our veterans fought, and so often died, for.
Music For The Rest Of Us November 8, 2019November 7, 2019 But first: Can we put the upcoming impeachment hearings into context? Congress’s job is to make Americans’ lives better. So far in 2019, the House has passed bills that would lower prescription drug prices, raise wages, fight government corruption, require universal background checks, provide for paper ballot backups, reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, prevent citizens from being fired for being gay, assure equal pay for equal work, fight climate change, restore net neutrality — and more. That’s their job and they’ve done it. Those bills are among the 250 the Republican-controlled Senate proudly refuses to consider. But Congress has another responsibility. Each member swore an oath to protect and defend the Constitution. If we had a president who – to take a ridiculous hypothetical example just to make the point – gave Russia all of Europe in return for a $10 billion personal bribe, not even Lindsey Graham would defend that as acceptable. The House would vote to impeach; the Senate would vote to convict. Clearly that is not what happened. The purpose of the House proceedings is to find out what DID happen, and then to decide whether it warrants impeachment. Ukraine is just one country in Europe, not all of Europe, after all. And Putin has taken over only the Russian-speaking part of it, not all of it — that’s all he wants. (There is precedent for this. As Malcolm Gladwell recounts in Talking To Strangers, Neville Chamberlain assured England that all Hitler wanted was the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia, not all of it — the Sudetenland. But then, as keen students of history will recall, one thing led to another.) However benign or justified Putin’s intentions may appear to Trump, Ukraine is under active military invasion by Russia. Ukrainians are dying in combat for their freedom from Russian domination. The $391 million in promised military aid was desperately needed this past summer, when Trump — as has now been endlessly confirmed — held it up for personal gain. To me that rises to the level of a misdemeanor. (As has so much else he’s done, not least the multiple instances of obstruction of justice that 1,027 former federal prosecutors — Republicans and Democrats — have declared were clearly indictable offenses.) And that’s what the hearings are about. Yesterday, it was music for elephants. Today — how many of these 20 do you know and love? Me? Most of them. Have a great weekend.
Music For Elephants November 7, 2019November 6, 2019 But first . . . Should we be alarmed when a county library board unanimously declares the New York Times fake news? Or when our President and Republican leadership mock the urgent concerns of 11,000 scientists worldwide? Should not the prospect of “untold suffering” be a Republican concern? My Ivy-educated friend Peter inexplicably agrees with Trump: science, schmience . . . it’s all a hoax from the fake news. And now . . . Watch this. (Thanks, Alan.) For more, watch these. I’m on vacation.* *And so am reminded of the line — uttered shortly before he was fired for uttering it, not realizing he was still on air — “that should keep the little bastards happy” (with you guys, in this case, all due respect, being the little bastards). Yet it now turns out Uncle Don may not have uttered that line after all. Ah, the things we thought we knew. Enjoy the music.
Like A Swiss Watch November 6, 2019November 5, 2019 Only, not a watch: a mechanical boy writing with a quill pen. (Thanks, Mel!) I apparently have writer’s block, or am on vacation or something; but not this kid. Still writing after 279 years. Oh, and wait. How great is this Kirkus Review of a Republican operative’s forthcoming book? . . . Political campaign consultant Wilson (Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever, 2018) intensifies his strident excoriation of Trump with a hard-hitting assessment of Democrats’ chances of winning the next presidential election—a victory that is crucial for saving the country. The author decries Trump as “a flawed, awful shitbird of the worst order” and a “political and moral monster” who will go down in history “for endemic corruption, outrageous stupidity, egregious cruelty, and inhumanity” and who has spread “moral and political contagion” and caused the collapse “of a once-great party.” Trump needs to go, but Wilson fears that Democrats will hand him reelection unless . . . Read the rest for more — and click here to help fund the early organizing in key states that give us the best chance of saving the country. I’ll see whatever you do and jump through the screen to say thanks.
The Man With The Golden AAirPass November 5, 2019November 1, 2019 But first: Do you watch Morning Joe? One of its charming regulars, Donny Deutsch, said something unflattering about Denmark. This response from an actual Dane is not to be missed. And now: Imagine being able to fly anywhere in the world, any time, first-class for the rest of your life — with whatever pal you wanted beside you. Here’s the story of a man I knew who had exactly that deal, as recounted by his daughter. (Read it, or click on that page to hear her read it.) It has absolutely no relevance to real life but I found it fascinating. And unjust! American should have handled this better! Why not tell her dad: “Never do it again but we’ll allow you-and-whomever one round trip a month for the rest of your life.” Save all those legal fees and reach a more just resolution? Oh, well.
Of Snakes And Antiques November 3, 2019November 1, 2019 But first: A little inspiration for those who want to be ripped and healthy at 72, like Grateful Dead co-founder Bob Weir. (Or you could just walk more. But it’s a great read.) And second: You can see Parts 1 and 2 all in one day, or over two nights — or just see Part 1 — but take a minute to see what they’re saying about The Inheritance. And third: Melinda Fishman: “Speaking of vegan — have you seen Forks Over Knives, on Netflix? Powerful. I’m vegan for 4 days so far 🙂 Feel different, lighter, happier, lost weight.” Karen Geronymo (Dietitian): “Please let Sally know that (only) 1 tablespoon of her vegan butter (contains coconut oil) provides 40% of the recommended allowance of saturated (cholesterol raising!) fat for the day. Better to eat (a little) real butter. Or a nut butter (peanut, almond, cashew, etc.). Most important, read the nutrition information and ingredient list so you know.” And now: My friend Peter Kinzler was a warrior in our (failed) battle for auto insurance reform. (One more thing we have to thank Ralph Nader for, as readers of my September 23, 1996, post may recall.) But he is also a charming writer. So — despite my heart-stopping fear of snakes — I opened the blast email he sent his list this summer (subject line: Of Snakes and Antiques) and asked if I could share it here someday when I was too lazy to offer anything of my own. (I’m on vacation this week!) And thus . . . Of Snakes and Antiques My wife Ginny and I have lived in Hollin Hills for 37 years. One of the reasons we love the neighborhood so much is our ability to experience nature through the window walls. Over the years, we have enjoyed watching the wider variety of wildlife, including deer and foxes. Our one condition has always been that we each remain in our own space. We did once have a bird fly down the heat exhaust pipe and join us, briefly, inside. After that, we put a cover on the exhaust and established a strict “no birds in the house” policy. That policy has been respected by all birds for over a quarter of a century. Unfortunately, we did not establish a formal policy for other animals. As a result, over the years, we have been visited inside by the occasional lizard or mouse. As they have chosen to do so outside of official visiting hours (which are never), they have been welcomed with a few screams. brooms and dust pans. I can truthfully report that they have all left the house unharmed. These occasional wildlife visits have been a small price to pay for the pleasure of living in the woods. That was until May 28th. That day, Ginny was pouring herself a cup of coffee when she noticed a long black object moving from the kitchen to the living room. I could say she responded calmly by finishing her breakfast and then calling animal control to remove the black snake – but that would be a lie. Instead, she screamed for me to come quickly. As I was two rooms and several walls removed, and well past my best hearing years, I could not hear what she was saying. I yelled to her that she knew I couldn’t hear so please come closer. Ginny yelled louder. When I arrived in the living room, I saw a 2’ long black snake stretched out along the wall. Ginny said, “Get it out of here.” My inner pioneer said, “Of course, my beloved.” My 76 year old suburban self said, “Are you crazy?” Nevertheless, I set out with a broom and dustpan to do my manly duty and convince the snake that it would be far happier outside. It responded by coiling up and I abandoned my hopeless quest to remove it from the house. Ginny, shaken but still thinking, called Fairfax County animal control and they said to watch the snake to make sure it didn’t go hiding elsewhere in the house while they dispatched someone to remove it. An hour later, a policeman came with a 6’ long grabber and removed the snake. We thanked him profusely and started to breathe again. The next day, our blood pressures moving back into the 3-digits, we set off to DC for a relaxing (comparatively speaking) outing at the dentist’s. As we were already in town, we went to Samuelson’s Buyers to sell some antique silver and gold pieces we hadn’t used in years. While we got less than anticipated because of millennials’ changing tastes, we were glad to get enough to offset some of the never-ending maintenance bills that come with owning a Hollin Hills house. After a quiet day on Thursday, albeit with the predictable snake dreams, we watched as workmen finished repairing the 70 year old patio – until we heard a loud crash. Ginny raced into the kitchen to find broken pottery from off our kitchen shelves – and another black snake. This time, we abandoned half measures and called Home Paramount. An hour later, two men showed up and explained to us that the snakes were probably coming down our heater exhaust pipe in search of mice. We explained to them, in voices two octaves above normal, that we didn’t have any mice in the house. They responded, “Now you know why.” By this time, we were prepared to pay Home Paramount any sum of money to remove the snake and make sure none ever returned. And we agreed to do so. Alas, Home Paramount either has ESP or access to our bank account, as the sum they charged was nearly identical to what we had received from Samuelson’s. We had learned the value of the family jewels. We just hope the snakes have also learned their lesson.