Hurtling Toward The Future October 17, 2017October 17, 2017 By 2026 — my passport will still be valid, it’s so five-minutes-from-now — there may be quantum computers that can do in a second what today’s most powerful take 45 minutes to complete. Read How Google’s Quantum Computer Could Change the World. And it’s not just Google hot on this trail, as the Wall Street Journal explains. It will change everything, with all manner of scary (and a few glorious) implications. . . . “It isn’t just a faster computer of the kind that we’re used to. It’s a fundamentally new way of harnessing nature to do computations,” says Scott Aaronson, the head of the Quantum Information Center at the University of Texas at Austin. “People ask, ‘Well, is it a thousand times faster? Is it a million times faster?’ It all depends on the application. It could do things in a minute that we don’t know how to do classically in the age of the universe. For other types of tests, a quantum computer probably helps you only modestly or, in some cases, not at all.” For nearly three decades, these machines were considered the stuff of science fiction. Just a few years ago, the consensus on a timeline to large-scale, reliable quantum computers was 20 years to never. “Nobody is saying never anymore,” says Scott Totzke, the chief executive of Isara Corp., a Canadian firm developing encryption resistant to quantum computers, which threaten to crack current methods. “We are in the very, very early days, but we are well past the science-fiction point.” Companies and universities around the world are racing to build these machines, and Google, a unit of Alphabet Inc., appears to be in the lead. Early next year, Google’s quantum computer will face its acid test in the form of an obscure computational problem that would take a classical computer billions of years to complete. Success would mark “quantum supremacy,” the tipping point where a quantum computer accomplishes something previously impossible. It’s a milestone computer scientists say will mark a new era of computing, and the end of what you might call the classical age. . . . “Classical” is a funny word to use in connection with something so new — I’m older than the first UNIVAC computer — but apparently “bits” may soon be replaced by “qubits.” “What’s a cubit?” a certain now-disgraced comedian famously asked God when, as Noah, he was commanded to build an ark “300 cubits by 80 cubits by 40 cubits.” But trust me: qubits are waaaaay more difficult to understand. The Journal says Bill Gates acknowledges he can’t follow the PowerPoints he’s presented on this — and quotes the magnificent Nobel Prize-winning theoretical physicist Richard Feynman: “I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics.” Yet — like electricity that most of us don’t understand either — it seems to work. . . . Adding one bit negligibly increases a classical chip’s computing power, but adding one qubit doubles the power of a quantum chip. A 300-bit classical chip could power (roughly) a basic calculator, but a 300-qubit chip has the computing power of two novemvigintillion bits—a two followed by 90 zeros—a number that exceeds the atoms in the universe. Trump sees a future in coal. Oh, how we need, instead, a leader like this one. Click to see who I mean and what he’s up to. If you’re like me, it will bring a tear to your eye — and fresh hope for the future.
He’s Baaaaaack . . . October 16, 2017October 15, 2017 So much to catch up on and share, but let’s start with “the dumbest goddamn student I ever had” — I presume you’ve seen this by now? We really have to impeach this man, fast — our country and world are in peril. But you know that. Did you know that a volcano 12 miles west of Vesuvius erupted 40,000 years ago with 300 times the explosive force? (And even Vesuvius released 100,000 times the combined thermal energy of the two bombs dropped to end the last world war.) Did you know that when Yellowstone blows (and there are signs it may be waking up), it could produce 2,000 times the force of Mt. St. Helens — possibly rendering humans extinct? So Trump is not our only worry; just more immediate — and remediable (you can’t impeach a volcano).
Mikey’s Last Breakfast October 13, 2017 Not using his last name, for reasons that may become evident, but the breakfast where we’re staying is free, included in the price of the room, and today is our last day here — I have learned to say “you only live once” in Italian — at a resort so fancy it sports a Michelin-starred restaurant we have not tried — I can’t afford even the peanuts above the minibar — “DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT THOSE PEANUTS,” I have gently urged Mikey (who is trying to figure out how to get the light in our private pool to work) — converting from grams and euros, the 2.88-ounce jar of peanuts cost $8.28 — so here is what Mikey ate just now for breakfast (after a large dinner at Tito’s the night before): two glasses of fresh-squeezed orange juice, one mimosa, a pot of coffee; salmon, tomatoes, and bruschetta from the buffet; an order of French toast; an order of poached eggs with large strips of bacon; which he liked so much he got a second order of poached eggs with large strips of bacon. Overlooking the Mediterranean. Si vive solo una volta. And it was free. La dolce vita. (See? Italian’s not so hard.) Meanwhile, back in America, Rome burns. Trump is hard at work wrecking the health care system — which could make sense if he had even a notion of what he’d like to see in its place. (Could his secret plan be “great, great health care for everybody at a tiny fraction of the cost” — which is not too much of an exaggerated description of what they already have in Canada and throughout Europe, Great Britain, Singapore and Japan? No, I don’t think so. He has no idea what he’s doing.) Trump is treating the Puerto Rican crisis as if, well, let’s face it, Puerto Ricans were not real Americans — a view many of his faithful probably share. And then there’s his work to undermine the State Department, t0 undermine our moral leadership in the world, to undermine the agreement that brought Iran back from the brink of nuclear proliferation; to undermine trust in the free press, undermine environmental protections, undermine respect for the judiciary. How did we get here? Read this long, really interesting piece in the Atlantic: Facebook changed the world. Vladimir Putin seemed to grasp aspects of this before, even, Mark Zuckerberg. Tomorrow we see the Last Supper. Not the one we already saw in Rome — the real one. No disrespect, but in terms of the menu, at least, and quantity (!), I’m not sure it can compare to Mikey’s breakfast.
Pizza! October 12, 2017October 12, 2017 Not presidential? Here’s what Obama did to get people upset (he wore a tan suit). Contrast that with what Trump has done? And now he wants ten times as many nuclear weapons? Everywhere we go we apologize for him — to cabbies and waiters and busboys, to the train station information lady, to the concierge — and whether in sign language or perfect English, they instantly get it and share our dismay. Italy is magnificent. You knew that, but wow. And if you’re lucky enough to be able to go in October instead of the hot and even more crowded summer months? Here are some random things I’ve learned (but have not verified, in case I misheard): Rome’s population was about a million back in the day (we saw the spot Caesar was assassinated, three or four hundred meters from the site of the house where Michelangelo lived while painting the Sistine Chapel — which is NOT the dome of St. Peter’s (magnificent and adjacent though that is) — but over time and invasions and plagues it shrank to ten or twenty thousand . . . before recovering over the centuries to, now, more like 3 million (5 million in the greater region) . . . but the population of native Italians is again dropping — by 200,000 just last year — which makes me sad, because who can watch “Moonstruck” (as we did on the flight over) and not want there to be as many Italians as possible? (“Old man, you give those dogs another piece of my food, I’m gonna kick ya till you’re dead.”) So that’s the first thing I learned. And did you know the Italians had no tomatoes — no tomatoes! — or potatoes, for that matter, until they arrived from the New World (discovered by Christopher Columbus 525 years ago today)? Not sure whether Columbus brought them back himself or the Italians had to wait longer, but there could be no tomato pizza without America. And did you know Italians did not invent pizza until 1898? (I am particularly unsure of that factoid; but it could be accurate. [UPDATE: That was the year Pizza Margherita was invented for Queen Margherita: red, white, and green, tomato, cheese and basil.]) Or that most of the perhaps 20,000 residents of Pompeii escaped (and that no lava ever touched the city) — because the eruption was at 1pm or so (just ask Pliny the Younger, who witnessed it from across the Bay of Naples) and it was not until about 5am the next morning that the huge mushroom cloud of pumice and ash and poison gas suddenly collapsed onto the city, suffocating those who had chosen — or been ordered — to stay behind and protect their houses from looting. And those who died were NOT turned into stone figures on the spot (as Apollo turned Daphne into a tree, which you can see in Bernini’s astonishing statue at the Borghese Gallery — see her toes beginning to sprout roots? her flesh turning to bark? her fingers sprouting leaves?), but rather their bodies decomposed even as the surrounding ash solidified, leaving a sort of “negative.” Drill a hole into the top of that cavity; pour in plaster; wait a few days for it to set; and then chip away the exterior: that is who you see when you visit this remarkable city. (Others escaped the volcano but died in the fairly minor tsunami.) And then there was touring the Colosseum at night, down below what would have been the sand-covered arena floor, where the gladiators and beasts were corralled into 24 cages, any combination of which could be elevated to the arena floor on cue. We saw all that. We stood where the gladiators (and rhinoceri) stood. And more! But there’s a 5-euro margherita pizza with my name on it waiting at Tito’s in Vico Equense, and I must not be late. Hurray for Italy. My sense is that Italians, like much of the rest of the world, are praying for us to regain our senses. I don’t know whose IQ is higher, Trump’s or Tillerson’s, but I know we are in deep trouble. Which bodes ill for the world at large. Have a great day!
Why Corporate Tax Cuts Won’t Create Jobs October 11, 2017October 10, 2017 In case the six-minute Nick Hanauer TED talk I keep linking to hasn’t persuaded your uncle, now comes Marcus Ryu to seal the deal. Please read and forward. . . . I am what certain politicians call a “job creator.” Two recessions ago, in 2001, five partners and I founded a software company in Silicon Valley. After great difficulty and great good fortune, that company grew to serve customers in over 30 countries, generating over $500 million in annual revenue and employing more than 2,000 professionals in high-skilled, high-paying jobs — a large majority of them in the United States. Today I am the chief executive of that company, Guidewire Software, valued on the New York Stock Exchange at over $5 billion. As an entrepreneur myself and a friend to many others, I know that lower tax rates will not motivate more people to start companies. . . . He makes such a persuasive case — it’s a quick and easy read. President Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, even as the economy was weak, and we gained 23 million jobs during his eight years. President Bush then slashed them — and we gained fewer than 1 million during his eight years, even as we massively increased inequality, exploded the National Debt, and allowed our infrastructure to crumble. President Obama raised them again and we enjoyed 75 consecutive months of job growth — more than 2 million jobs each of the last six years of his presidency. So if your overarching goal is to ease the burdens of the wealthy, stand with Trump and the Republicans — National Debt and crumbling infrastructure be damned. But if you’d like to see millions of Americans put to work at good jobs revitalizing our infrastructure, and/or health care co-pays and deductibles reduced — and inequality reduced — the better plan is to raise taxes a little (not a lot!) on those who can best afford to pay.
A Letter From Secretary Albright October 10, 2017October 8, 2017 As our vulgar, incompetent, egomaniacal president — our “national embarrassment,” as Colin Powell put it long before he, Trump, came within 3 million votes of his opponent (with the help of a massive post-KGB disinformation campaign) — as he seems poised to wreck the deal by which we halted Iran’s rush to nuclear weapons, Madeleine Albright writes: It’s hard to overstate how disastrous abandoning the Iran nuclear deal would be. But that’s exactly what this administration is threatening to do. Now, I served as Secretary of State, but you don’t have to be a foreign policy expert to know that we’re all safer if Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons. U.S.-Iranian relations are complicated, I know from experience. I tried to begin a dialogue with Iran decades ago, but unfortunately, they weren’t ready. So when the Obama administration — with the support of China, Russia, and our closest allies – negotiated a nuclear accord with Iran, I understood the historic nature of this diplomatic achievement. Let’s be clear: The deal is working. Both the UN’s independent nuclear watchdog and our own State Department have certified that Iran is adhering to the terms of the agreement. Which means, if we unilaterally withdraw from the deal, we’re simply breaking our promises — and that carries great danger on many fronts. Security for the entire world is at stake — we can’t allow this deal to be undercut by a reckless administration. Going back on this deal would embolden the hardliners in Iran. It would allow them to resume nuclear activities that were blocked by the deal. It would weaken our hand in the region and hamper our ability to influence the very behavior about which this administration is rightly concerned. And it would send a message to our allies and our adversaries alike that America can’t be trusted to keep its word, crippling our capacity for diplomacy. If America reneges on this agreement even though Iran is upholding its commitments, why would North Korea even consider curbing their own nuclear program? This administration has already backed out of the 195-nation Paris climate accord, diminishing our international standing. Now they’re considering withdrawing from a crucial nuclear agreement with Iran and five other world powers. The United States can’t keep giving away our seat at the table and relinquishing our global leadership. We can’t replace serious diplomacy with reckless threats and bluster. Please join me in urging the administration to do the right thing, the responsible thing, and maintain our commitment to the Iran Deal: https://my.ofa.us/This-Deal-Is-Working Thanks, Madeleine Albright
Buongiorno October 9, 2017October 8, 2017 If everything has gone according to plan, a friend and I have hurtled through the air across an ocean, dining, sleeping, and waking to eggs Florentine — all this and first-run movies on a 500-ton double-decker — and are now, as we speak, checking out the Colosseum, where two seconds ago in the scheme of things 65,000 Romans would have been cheering on their favorite gladiator or bestiarius and wondering how a f——g moron like Nero ever got to be emperor. Overhead, a Roman eagle soars. What if I could soar like that, some season ticketholders surely day-dreamed. And now we can. (We can also speak into our iPhones in English and have it come out seconds later in Italian. Free. È incredibile come? (How incredible is that?) Ronzoni, sono buoni, as my father once wrote (heretofore, my only Italian). He also wrote, “Man, oh Manischewitz, what a wine,” later the exclamation of choice on the surface of the moon, but I digress. (Though I imagine the ancient Romans also fantasized about being able to walk on the moon.) Who knows what’s happened over the weekend? So if this week’s posts seem even less relevant than usual, it’s because I couldn’t figure out the power adapter in my room or am just having too much fun. But here are a couple of items from last week: SUCCESS!!! Stanford’s Center for Research on Educational Outcomes released a study last week that shows (page 46) New York’s Success Academy students gaining 137 extra days in reading achievement and 239 extra days in math compared to their district peers. That’s a lot of days in a 180-day school year. It suggests that the 15,500 scholars in the 46 Success Academy schools got roughly double the learning per day of attendance compared to their peers. As always: The success of Success is a thrilling story that points the way toward breaking the cycle of poverty, crime and despair. Great for those 15,500 kids — and their kids and kids’ kids, but also for society as a whole. Imagine the social, civic, and fiscal/economic impact. Some charter schools suck. Many are mediocre. But when you find a public-school formula that works so spectacularly well? And has been proven in not just one or two schools for just one or two years, but now 46, some of them for a decade? Spread the word. IRONY Man Whose Life Was Saved By Married Lesbian Cop To Speak At National Convention Of Anti-LGBT Groups. JOY Last week I got to shake hands with Norman Lear on the occasion of his 95th birthday. Even THIS I got to experience. Talk about American heroes!
Sabotage October 6, 2017October 5, 2017 Jim Burt: “Of all the daily Republican outrages, the one that’s getting the least attention in proportion to the danger it holds – in my opinion – is the ongoing destruction of the Affordable Care Act by deliberate sabotage: the diversion of public funds appropriated for the purpose of promoting enrollment to propaganda against the law; the 50% reduction in the enrollment period; the torrent of lies about the efficacy of the program. To combat this, a range of responses is needed, including efforts by states and by private charity to take up the slack in promotion and education concerning enrollment during the truncated period, but there should also be a sustained effort by Democrats. Just as Cato the Censor, in ancient Rome, moved a nation to undertake the final conquest of its rival, Carthage, by tacking on ‘Carthago delenda est‘ — ‘Carthage must be destroyed’ — to every public statement and private encounter, Democrats should include a reference to the sabotage of Obamacare: ‘Senator, what do you think the Fed is going to do about interest rates?’ ‘Great question, but first I have to call your attention to the ongoing efforts of the Trump administration to sabotage the Affordable Care Act, which will ultimately hurt almost all of us. As to interest rates, . . .'” Really: the sabotage is deliberate. They even admit it. Trump and the Republicans have no clue how to provide “everybody great health care” — let alone at a “tiny fraction of the price” — but told us they did. What a con job. The main driver of their effort is repeal of the tax on the rich imposed to help make health care affordable. Republican officeholders’ first priority is always cutting taxes for the rich. Presidential George W. Bush said that “by far the vast majority” of his proposed tax cut would go to “people at the bottom of the economic ladder” — a bald-faced, trillion-dollar lie. Trump tells us he wants a massive tax cut for the middle class that would not benefit him or the rich — but what they’ve proposed would massively benefit him and the rich, so: another trillion dollar bald-faced lie. It is to cry. But as soon as the tears dry, go see Kingsman: The Golden Circle. If you saw the first one, it’s likely already on your list. But there’s no need to have seen the first to love the sequel. The basic test: do you like James Bond movies? These are in that genre, but fresher — and crazy fun. (Warning: violence!) Have a great weekend. UPDATE to yesterday’s post on our voting against United Nations condemnation of the death penalty for gay sex: Snopes here provides the other side of the story — basically, that the U.S. felt the resolution was too broad, urging nations that have not yet abolished the death penalty altogether to consider doing so. To judge for yourself, here is the resolution. While we’re at it, if you think people aren’t wrongfully sentenced to death, here’s Jon Oliver on the glaring flaws in forensic science. (The clip itself is at the end of the article.) Now have a great weekend.
The Kids Pay The Price October 5, 2017October 5, 2017 So what do you think of the death penalty? Even if you’re for it in some circumstances, what do you think of imposing it as the punishment for consensual gay sex? Too harsh? So what would you think of a UN resolution calling for an end to that? And — the real question — what would you think of a country that votes against that resolution? Welcome to America, folks: your country just did. [UPDATE: This, at Snopes, provides the other side of the story — basically, the U.S. felt it was too broad, urging nations that have not yet abolished the death penalty altogether to consider doing so. To judge for yourself, here is the resolution. While we’re at it, if you think people aren’t wrongfully sentenced to death, here’s Jon Oliver on the glaring flaws in forensic science (the clip itself is at the end of the article).] Meanwhile: Michigan lets taxpayer-funded child-placement agencies reject gay couples regardless of their ability to provide good homes for abandoned kids. Here‘s a 30-second spot — “The Kids Pay The Price” — meant to debut on Fox but rejected by the network. And here‘s the ACLU’s take on that. My onw view: some prospective gay parents, like some prospective Irish or Hindu or elderly or disabled parents, may be unfit to provide good homes. But the determination should be based not on race or religion or gender identity — you don’t think Ellen DeGeneres could be a good mom? Anderson Cooper, a good dad? — but on the character, motivation, and resources of the applicants. No?
Warren Buffett’s Heavily In Cash; Stephen Colbert For President October 3, 2017October 3, 2017 Here’s the Warren Buffett story. The kinds of stocks I own are mostly “special situations” — but make no mistake: in a bear market, everything goes down. So it’s arguably a mistake to hold stocks in advance of a bear market (except: what if you’re years early in selling, plus the taxes you might incur?). But it’s more certainly a mistake, and a more common one at that, to give up — or panic — at — or near — the eventual bottom, before the thus-far-inevitable recovery. Here’s what Stephen Colbert had to say about Las Vegas. I have the feeling that he — or Jimmy Kimmel or Jon Stewart or Jane Pauley or Oprah — or you, esteemed reader — would make a far better president than the one the Russians selected for us.