Betting On The Election January 11, 2016January 8, 2016 Friday I gave you a free sports-predicting app that pays you if you’re right. Today, the rather fascinating history of political betting. (Hint: more accurate than Gallup.) Which may lead you to bet real money at PredictIt — see the current odds on Trump, Cruz, Bernie, and Hillary — and/or at the Iowa Electronic Markets. I give you today, also, this unusual bit of anthropology. As the photo caption explains, “I spent 30 minutes talking to them to learn more about their culture until . . . ” Well, click to find out. (Thanks, Brian!)
A Fan’s Dream Come True January 8, 2016January 7, 2016 I am so not into sports. Once the Dodgers left Brooklyn, I lost interest — which, truth to tell, I only feigned in the first place. Even as the starting left halfback on my high school’s varsity soccer team* I was right-footed. But if I were into sports, I’d rush to download the DailyBracket app. Not only is it free; it pays you if you win. (No, really.) Every day, you swipe left or right, depending on who you think will win each of five highlighted games. If you get three or more right, you advance towards cash prizes ranging from $1 (that even I could easily win) on up past $50 and $100 and $10,000 all the way to $1 million (that no one, I’m pretty sure, will ever win). Touch a game ball before you swipe and you get a little color to help you decide. “A fan’s dream come true — finally, an app that gives you a nightly rooting interest with absolutely no risk involved.” (But, I’m guessing, this being America, you’ll be offered ways to send money their way, as well . . . though only if you want to.) Full disclosure: the genius behind this is a friend of mine. And if you use 3MDR as your referral code, I’ll get 100 BracketBucks, good for swag in the Daily Bracket store. I could really use another baseball cap. Have a great weekend. *It was a very small high school.
Tom Friedman 2020? January 7, 2016January 6, 2016 Hey — no guns at the Republican National Convention? Really? What better place to demonstrate the wisdom of open carry? (Details here.) Congress’s Benghazi hearings have now lasted longer, at 610 days, than its investigations into the Kennedy Assassination, Watergate, Iran-Contra, or 9/11. (Latest finding here.) This 3-minute Tea Party clip lauds a former Navy Seal for views you will find misinformed, hateful, and scary. (I’m on their email list and get something like this every day.) Warren K.: “I could not disagree more with Warren S. Your piece was sarcastic, yes, but more than justifiably so. The language was strong, but the underlying facts even stronger. I feel pretty confident that more than a few of your Republican readers had to reconsider their position as they read it through.” Tom Friedman posits an extremist who would run in 2020 from the right and left simultaneously, clearing the deck for dramatic changes that cry out to be made. Unfortunately, he notes, for this to be anywhere near plausible, we’d have to find ourselves in dire straits. As we were, for example, when Bush handed the nation to Obama. But I digress.
In (Weak) Defense Of Sarcasm (Mine) January 6, 2016January 5, 2016 Warren S: “Wow, harsh column yesterday! Not sure what happened, but it sure was extreme. I’ve been meaning to write to you for a while, so this seemed like a good time. I give you the lion’s share of the credit for my dropping my Republican registration, my vote for Obama in 2008, and my now generally more center-leaning views. But my observation is that your column has become a lot more shrill. Yesterday’s is an example. It’s your column and you get to do what you want with it, but my experience is that you get more with honey than you do with vinegar. When you instead use name-calling, sarcasm, etc. I find it a turnoff.” ☞ Fair enough. I appreciate the feedback and especially agree with the part I bolded. So you won’t see columns like yesterday’s here often. Yet it was factually true (no?) and presumably — though they wouldn’t frame it the way I did — a lot of Republicans are proud of, or at least pleased with, the party’s position on climate change, voting rights, and the rest. Or else why would they still identify as Republicans? (Long though yesterday’s laundry list was, there was lots I left off: shutting down the government; opposing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; thwarting universal background checks; preventing the refinancing of federal student loans . . . ) And that was ultimately the point: having some of my readers who identify as Republicans read through the list and realize that, well, they’re not proud to be associated with these things at all. Proud Eisenhower Republicans, yes; Lincoln or Teddy Roosevelt Republicans, sure; Nixon or Ford or Rockefeller or Bloomberg or Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, Mitt Romney, or George Romney Republicans, fine. But today’s Republicans? I don’t think so. “Temporary Independents” perhaps. Until they get their party back. Here’s a good piece that makes the same point without the sarcasm: “10 past Republicans who’d never make it in today’s crazy GOP.” It’s three years old, but even then it highlighted Ted Cruz by way of contrast. If anything, the GOP may have become even a bit crazier since 2013.
I’m Proud To Be A Republican January 5, 2016January 5, 2016 I’m proud to be a Republican because we’re standing up for religious liberty . . . against “political correctness” . . . and to make abortion rare (versus the Democratic mantra, “safe, legal, and rare”). I’m proud to be a Republican because we’re making it harder for people to vote. Watch Barack Obama and Al Sharpton lament the new laws we’ve passed, here. (Like requiring Alabamans to go to the DMV to get new photo ID and then shutting down the DMV offices in black neighborhoods. Good stuff!) I’m proud to be a Republican because we are standing against higher wages for the working poor (and fighting to cut back food stamps for their children). I’m proud to be a Republican because we’ve kept from extending Medicaid to the working poor. Why do they deserve healthcare? What are we — Europe? Canada? England? Japan? Australia? Russia? Korea? Cuba? We know people don’t “deserve” health care. Health care is not a “right.” (When will Europe and the rest catch up to our level of concern for one another? Our level of civilization?) And speaking of civilization, we know that taxes are not the price we pay for civilization — taxes are the price we pay to maintain law and order, so that — along with the firearms we can now finally carry on Texas hips — no one can mess with us. Or our stuff. I’m proud to be a Republican because 58% of us in Congress deny the existence of climate change or, at least, oppose action to cut greenhouse gas emissions. I’m proud that our science chairs, Smith and Inhofe, deny the science. And that even many of our “moderates,” like Chris Christie, are unconcerned (adamantly, here, at 38:51). I’m proud to be a Republican because the Justices we appointed produced the Citizens United and McCutcheon rulings that gave so much more power to the rich; and gutted the Voting Rights Act at the expense of the powerless. I’m proud to be a Republican because we blocked the American Jobs Act that would have put people back to work revitalizing our national infrastructure. And blocked the bipartisan Comprehensive Immigration Reform that passed in the Senate 68-32. And blocked ENDA, that would have barred employment discrimination against gays. Bad enough that they can marry. I’m proud to be a Republican because the RNC has loads of cash while the DNC is millions in the red. (Their “little money” is going to Bernie and Hillary, while the big money, happily, skews Republican.) We’ve got the House, we’ve got the Senate . . . we largely have the Court. Later this year we can wrap up the rest and have it all.
New Year January 4, 2016January 3, 2016 The first check I wrote this year was for $25.34 to cover a four-page IRS “notice of intent to seize your property” for the tax year 2005 — ten years ago — with interest calculated quarterly, at rates ranging from 8% down to 3%, yet somehow totaling only 7 cents. “For a detailed calculation of your interest, call 800-829-0115.” Which I plan to do, because I think Uncle Sam short-changed himself. Then again, as this notice related not to my taxes but to $25.27 apparently due on the long-since-dissolved trust that my dad, who died in 1983, set up for my mom, who died in 2011 — and as it was addressed to their attorney not me (he faxed it over) — I’m not sure what property the IRS contemplated seizing. Still, I am one of those who does not hate the IRS; who thinks taxes are the price we pay for civilization; and who can only imagine how hard Congress has made the IRS’s job — and how gleefully it has underfunded that job. So off went the check. The second “check” I wrote this year was in fact a gigantic charge put through here to help support the core infrastructure that everyone assumes someone else will pay for – yet without which the Tea Party wins. (Jeb would have been bad enough. Nice man, horrible governing priorities. But Cruz? Horrible man, horrible governing priorities.) The whole world is at stake — the Court for the next 30 years; war and peace;* potentially catastrophic climate change;** stuff like that. And the two parties could not be further apart. What a year 2016 is likely to be. Here’s hoping reason and good will prevail. Happy New Year! *Dick Cheney told us New Year’s morning that, yes, had he to do all over again, he would still have invaded Iraq. **Chris Christie is adamant [here, at 38:51] that it’s not a crisis, should not be of much concern.