For those who may have bought the warrants – around 70 cents when I first suggested them or 36 cents when I next suggested them (‘AL-BA You Dinner If This Works’) – they closed last night at 84 cents and continue to give you the right to buy the underlying stock, ALBA, a dredging company, at $5 a share any time between now and February, 2009.
With the stock closing at $5.67 yesterday, that meant people were paying a 17-cent premium over the warrant’s intrinsic value (the right to pay $5 for something worth $5.67 is intrinsically worth 67 cents). In return, they get 29 months to decide whether to exercise their warrants. If the stock craters, they lose 84 cents. If it doubles (and I’m certainly not expecting it to – most stocks don’t double in 29 months), their warrants would be worth about $6.34 each.
Reading this extensive Aldabra presentation didn’t help me guess where the stock might go.
And, a day or two later, reading this in the New York Times about the need to move the Mississippi River – ‘there would be tremendous engineering challenges, particularly in finding a new way for freighters to make their way into the Mississippi’s shipping channel’ – left me skeptical (they’re going to move the Mississippi river?) . . . but hopeful that it could involve a lot of dredging.
THE BILL PRESS SHOW
Hey, progressives (and ditto heads who want to get their blood pressure up) – the fledgling Bill Press morning drive-time radio show got a tenfold potential audience boost this week, as it began airing in Chicago (WCPT, 850 AM), San Francisco (KQKE, 960 AM), Minneapolis (KTNF, 950 AM), New Orleans (WSMB, 1350 AM), and elsewhere (Charlottesville, Ithaca, Brattleboro . . .).
You know Bill Press from Crossfire, and I know him to be a thoroughly decent guy, standing up for truth, justice, and the American way. (Look! Up in the sky!!!)
Probably too decent, in fact, for his show to become a megahit – one seems to need a freakishly large ego and a shameless attraction to the outrageous to score big on radio – but, full disclosure, I will make a buck or two if he does. (So please spend your days sipping Honest Tea, listening to Bill Press – and (switching now from dredging to Borealis) using lots of steel to keep the world price high for when we start mining vast quantities of iron ore, please God, touch wood, feh, feh.)
Quote of the Day
Very few American investors buy any stock for the sake of something which is going to happen more than six months hence, even though its probability is exceedingly high; and it is out of taking advantage of this psychological peculiarity of theirs that most money is made.~John Maynard Keynes
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