WACO / WEAK? NO / WACK-O / WOKE March 21, 2023March 21, 2023 WACO Trump supporters are organizing to ‘stock up on weaponry’ after his arrest (should there be one). He has scheduled a rally for this coming Saturday in Waco. Younger readers may not know the town’s significance, but tomorrow, March 22, Netflix releases Waco: American Apocalypse. ‘Waco: American Apocalypse’ Isn’t the Waco Story You Think You Know The new doc series includes FBI videos that’ve never been released to the public before. By Amanda Richards & Ingrid Ostby It’s a tangled, gruesome story you’ve probably heard before, but you’ve never heard — or seen — it this way. Waco: American Apocalypse explores the infamous 51-day standoff outside of Waco, Texas, between the US government and the Branch Davidian religious sect led by David Koresh. The bloody siege resulted in the loss of 86 lives, and the new three-part documentary retells this infamous event with never-before-seen material as well as realistic CGI visualizations. . . . Koresh had convinced all of them that he was their messiah, the only one who could save them [he alone could fix it] when the apocalypse inevitably unfolded on their doorstep [he would be their retribution]. Koresh armed his followers with guns and grenades and converted automatic assault rifles, most of which broke federal gun laws. The US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) obtained a warrant for Koresh’s arrest, and what happened next was one of the most shocking tragedies in recent American history. The bloody, multi-week gunfight and televised hostage negotiations resulted in the deaths of dozens of people, including 28 children. Thirty years after the tragic event, Waco: American Apocalypse airs intimate interviews with people from all sides of the conflict, including one of Koresh’s spiritual wives, the last child released from the compound alive and members of the ATF tactical team who watched their colleagues die in the shoot-out. The limited series includes raw news footage never before released to the public, as well as recently unearthed videotapes inside the FBI Crisis Negotiation Unit. What a remarkable venue to choose for a rally. The perfect spot if you want to portray the American government as the enemy. As Putin and Xi and the Ayatollah do. As the 9/11 hijackers and the Oklahoma City bomber did. Will my pal Steve Schwarzman and these lesser-known multi-million-dollar donors to Trump’s 2020 campaign be there? Will Tucker Carlson and Rupert Murdoch be there? Roseanne Barr? How about the majority of House and Senate Republicans who twice voted not to impeach or convict? Or to certify the election? Or to investigate January 6th? Will the Chair of the Republican National Committee be in Waco commemorating the 30th anniversary of the stand the Branch Davidian cult members took against the United States of America? I’m guessing not, but thousands of Trump’s cult members will be. WEAK? NO Those who are lamenting that “prosecutors are bringing the weakest case first” mean to say it is the least serious case. A $130,000 illegal campaign contribution isn’t the same as attempting to overturn a free and fair election. But it’s anything but a weak case, as Michael Cohen, who served three years in prison for it (in a case brought by the Trump Justice Department), would affirm. As for its timing, as Chuck Rosenberg has explained: “you bring cases when they’re ready.” A good prosecutor won’t rush a case for political reasons — nor delay one. If Trump is outraged anyone would suffer consequences for something so trivial, why didn’t he pardon Michael Cohen or commute his sentence? WACK-O $5 million per person for reparations? Not a single Democratic candidate for the House or Senate supports it, but Republicans will use it to win more power to cut back Democratic efforts to lessen inequality. It’s a huge gift to Trump and Q-Anon, Ted Cruz and Fox News. Defund the police? Insane! Most voters see the need to reform and improve policing — but the slogan itself was a gift to Mirch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy even though none of our House Senate candidates wanted literally to defund the police. The recent behavior of Stanford Law students — and at least one faculty member? Outrageous! Another gift to Republicans. Most voters believe political correctness has gone too far. Cancel culture has got to go. Al Franken should still be in the Senate. We badly need some Sister Soulja moments. WOKE It’s broke. Bill Maher rails against wokeness all the time. I’ve linked to his uber-sensible rants repeatedly. Here he sums it up in under a minute. Yes, we should take down statues of people who fought to preserve slavery. But Lincoln’s statue? If woke means being alert to the struggles and feelings of — well, of everyone, especially those who have it toughest — I’m all for it. But if it means everyone has to walk on egg shells lest he use a word like “shoot” that might trigger a sensitive child — “shoot for the stars, kids!” “shoot! I forgot my phone charger!” — or that we all have to indicate our preferred pronouns when signing our names . . . well, leaving aside the merits, that’s political suicide for the party that may not be perfect, but that really does care about the struggles and feelings of those who have it toughest. Many of whom, by the way, are straight white men. Anand Giridharadas argues: “The bottom line: Wokeness is good, actually. But we need a plan for the still-waking.” Don’t forget to watch Waco: American Apocalypse.
ChatGPT (And 5% Tax-And-Risk Free) March 19, 2023March 19, 2023 Three quick takes first: 1. INDICTMENT: If Trump believes the Stormy Daniels crime was not a crime — or trivial — why didn’t he pardon the man he instructed to commit it? (We all know the answer; but I’d love to hear his.) 2. INFLATION: Mike Pence said yesterday “the American people are facing record inflation.” Really? Leaving aside 1920 (23.7% ), how about 14.8% in March, 1980 — more than double today’s steadily falling rate? 3. GREAT MOOS: How single-celled yeasts are doing the work of 1,500-pound cows. Labs have created exact molecular replicas of cow dairy. Some are already on shelves and being hailed as a way to reduce harm to cows and cut down dairy’s huge contribution to climate change . . .Precision dairy doesn’t have cholesterol, lactose, growth hormones or antibiotics. That’s the top line of a — to me, thrilling — piece in the Washington Post by Laura Reiley. A human. (To the best of my knowledge.) OK. So now . . . After I posted the “Guest Column” by ChatGPT earlier this month, I got me-mail: Dick W.: “So bland. No meat. No spice. No bite. If this is the best the robots can do, the cognitive elite has nothing to fear.” → Ah, yes, but early days. The singularity is near. Merle G: “Your column is scary. Not to be too ignorant, but what does the closing phrase, ‘the singularity is near‘ mean?” → A nod to Ray Kurzweil’s book title – the point at which artificial intelligence exceeds humans’ and all kinds of wonderful/terrifying things begin to happen. J.S.T.: “I had ChatGPT write you a fan letter. I couldn’t have done better myself.” → I’m not posting it. Narcissism has its limits. But it was really, really nice. Bob: “I had ChatGPT write you a guest column on the topic of favorable capital gains tax rates on longer maturity Treasuries with low coupon rates.” Behold: Another Case for Cowardice Investing in Treasury securities is a safe and reliable way to build wealth and preserve capital. Most investors are aware that Treasury securities are taxed at ordinary income tax rates. However, many may not be aware that Treasury securities with a maturity greater than one year may be eligible for favorable long-term capital gain tax rates. This is an important point to understand, especially when considering longer-maturity Treasuries with a low coupon rate. When combined, these two factors shift almost all of the total return of the bond to long-term capital gains. This is good news for investors because everyone benefits from these capital gain rates. For some investors in lower tax brackets, they may not owe any tax at all on the capital gain portion of their return. This effectively makes the investment a nearly tax-free bond with a very attractive rate for the near-zero risk. For example, consider a Treasury with a coupon rate of 0.25% maturing on March 31, 2024. This currently has a yield-to-maturity of around 5.3%. Assuming that the investor holds the bond until maturity, the total return will be around 5.3%. However, because of the low coupon rate and longer maturity, the vast majority of the return will be taxed at the favorable long-term capital gain rates. This is a significant advantage for investors, particularly those in lower tax brackets. For example, a single filer with taxable income of up to $44,625 (or a joint filer up to 89,250) would owe no tax on long-term capital gains. Of course, every investor’s tax situation is unique, and it is important to consult with a tax professional before making any investment decisions. However, it is clear that Treasury securities with a longer maturity and low coupon rate offer a potentially attractive tax advantage for investors seeking a low-risk investment. In conclusion, Treasury securities are a great investment option for those seeking stability and reliability in their portfolio. When considering longer-maturity Treasuries with a low coupon rate, investors should be aware of the potential tax benefits available through favorable long-term capital gain tax rates. By taking advantage of these benefits, investors can potentially earn a tax-free return on their investment, making Treasury securities an even more attractive investment option. → And if you think the above doesn’t apply to you, remember: taxable income is what’s left after deductions. (How to pay 0% capital gains taxes with a six-figure income in 2023.) Thanks, Bob! Allen B.: “Here’s what ChatGPT took 3 seconds to produce when asked to write 350 words about why a US citizen would believe Republican myths and fallacies: It’s important to note that beliefs and political affiliations are complex and multifaceted. While there are several reasons why a US citizen may believe in Republican myths and fallacies, some of the most common reasons include: Confirmation bias: Many people tend to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs and dismiss information that contradicts them. This tendency can lead individuals to selectively consume media outlets and sources that align with their political leanings, reinforcing pre-existing beliefs and myths. Group identity: Political affiliations can be influenced by group identity and socialization. People often align themselves with political parties and beliefs that are shared by their family, friends, and communities. This can create an echo chamber effect, where people are exposed only to information that reinforces their pre-existing beliefs and reject information that challenges their group identity. Misinformation: The spread of misinformation, particularly on social media, has been a significant factor in shaping political beliefs and attitudes. Studies have shown that misinformation is more likely to be believed and shared if it aligns with pre-existing beliefs or biases. In the case of Republican myths and fallacies, misinformation can spread rapidly, particularly if it supports a specific political agenda. Political polarization: The US has become increasingly politically polarized in recent years, with Republicans and Democrats holding increasingly divergent beliefs and values. This polarization can make it difficult for individuals to consider alternative viewpoints or to engage in constructive dialogue with those who hold different political beliefs. Economic concerns: Some individuals may be attracted to Republican myths and fallacies due to economic concerns. For example, Republicans often advocate for policies that promote free-market capitalism and limited government intervention, which may be appealing to those who believe that government interference in the economy is detrimental to their financial well-being. Ultimately, belief in Republican myths and fallacies is a complex phenomenon that cannot be explained by any single factor. Rather, a combination of cognitive biases, socialization, misinformation, and political polarization contribute to the formation and reinforcement of these beliefs. It’s important to engage in critical thinking, fact-checking, and open-mindedness when evaluating political beliefs and information. → So I tried two things. First, I tried the identical instruction, to see whether I’d get the identical result. I did not. Each time, I got a similar but different essay. Next I tried the identical instruction — only swapping D for R: write 350 words about why a US citizen would believe Democratic myths and fallacies: It is important to note that political beliefs and affiliations are often shaped by a multitude of factors, including one’s upbringing, personal experiences, and exposure to media and information sources. With that said, there are a variety of reasons why a US citizen may believe Democratic myths and fallacies. One possible reason is the influence of media and social networks. With the rise of social media platforms, individuals are increasingly exposed to news and information from a variety of sources, many of which may have a partisan bias. This can make it difficult for individuals to separate fact from fiction and may lead them to believe in myths and fallacies that are perpetuated by like-minded individuals or groups. Additionally, the Democratic party has historically been associated with progressive policies and ideas, such as social justice, equality, and environmental protection. For individuals who prioritize these issues, it may be easy to overlook potential flaws or inaccuracies in Democratic messaging and policies, leading them to believe in myths or fallacies that align with their values. Furthermore, the political polarization that has increasingly characterized American politics may contribute to the propagation of myths and fallacies. When individuals are deeply entrenched in their political beliefs, they may be less likely to critically evaluate information or ideas that challenge their worldview. This can create an echo chamber effect, where individuals only consume information that reinforces their existing beliefs and may be more susceptible to accepting myths and fallacies that align with their political views. Another potential reason why a US citizen may believe Democratic myths and fallacies is due to the influence of political leaders and influencers. Political leaders and pundits often have a significant platform and may use their position of power to spread misinformation or perpetuate myths and fallacies. For example, Democratic leaders may overstate the impact of certain policies or downplay potential negative consequences, leading individuals to believe in myths or fallacies that are not entirely accurate. Overall, there are a variety of factors that may contribute to a US citizen believing in Democratic myths and fallacies. From the influence of media and social networks to political polarization and the influence of political leaders, it is important for individuals to critically evaluate information and consider a variety of perspectives when forming their political beliefs and opinions. → Asked to assess which are more extreme and widespread: Democratic or Republican myths and fallacies, ChatGPT diplomatically demurred. Have a great week.
Lindbergh And Carlson March 17, 2023 Thom Hartmann explains why he thinks Republicans Frightened of “A Guy Called Tucker Carlson” Could Cause WWIII, arguing that “In the 1940s, Republicans appeasing a fascist dictator were led in the media by an ambitious young man named Charles Lindbergh; today’s GOP follows — and fears — Tucker Carlson.” Some really interesting history, if you click. Let’s hope it neither repeats nor rhymes. But it sure makes you wonder how different things would be if Lindbergh had won the day and we were now 80 years into the 1,000-year Reich. (As imagined, for example, in Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America.)
What To Do Before Your House Burns Down March 16, 2023March 16, 2023 But first . . . YESTERDAY’S MUST READ Tom Friedman: Putin and Netanyahu Show Why Bad Things Happen to Bad Leaders TODAY’S BEST QUOTE David Currier was my hands-on editor at PARADE. You’ve never heard of him, even though he worked on thousands of pieces by scores of writers reaching tens of millions of people. He died at 87 a few months ago, beloved by everyone. Brilliant, mirthful, and completely without ego. At the Zoom memorial this week I learned that “in addition to his passion for ballet and opera, he attended the show where Andy Kaufman invited the entire Carnegie Hall audience to board buses for milk and cookies afterwards” — perfect. And one of David’s colleagues, remarking on his lack of ego, remembered David once telling him: “I’ve always preferred to dance in the spotlight of others.” If PARADE was your newspaper’s Sunday supplement, David quietly added something to your life. AND NOW! Last week: advice in case someone gets hit by a bus. Today: advice born of the house fire that upended my friends lives: Google Lens has been an amazing tool to help us recover. I can’t even begin to tell you how many sentimental things we found online that we would never have been able to find with just simple searching and online shopping. For example: We went to the Star Wars Celebration last year and purchased amazing, custom (expensive) artwork from some independent artists. They were completely destroyed. Imagine typing “Star Wars artwork” in Google hoping to find that custom artwork! Impossible. But we found an image of the artwork in the background of another pic on our phone. We zoomed on the background and Google Lens found the exact artwork on the artist’s website. Amazing! We purchased it — something we thought would never be replaced. We also found vintage cookbooks, kids’ childhood memory toys (2004 Mickey Mouse) and clothes using Google Lens. It’s an amazing tool. With Google Lens, eBay, and some other online auction sites, we have been able to replace much that went up in smoke. It has really helped with the recovery process for the kids. When they come home, there are some familiar items in our rental house to help them feel as though not everything is lost. Our takeaway message #1: Take pics or a simple video to document everything in your house. Message #2: Store important backups offsite. I had tons of backups of all of my stuff (expecting earthquake), but just had external hard drives in my office (next to the machine I backed up). Dumb. All of those external hard drives melted in the fire. Laurie had lots of stuff stored in DropBox so she was able to recover all of her work. Message #3: Be sure to check your insurance policy to see what coverage you have. You want “replacement cost” insurance! Because we had paid extra for it, we got NOT for the depreciated “actual value” of the house and contents but the MUCH higher cost to replace it all.
Eric, Hunter, And H—er March 15, 2023March 15, 2023 Republicans are keen to discover what improper things, if any, Hunter Biden may have done even though he has no role in the Administration. This piece contrasts his situation with that of Donald, Jr., Jared, Ivanka, and Eric. It’s night and day — written in 2019. Updating it, I would note two more differences: > Hunter did not plot with his father to overthrow our democracy. > Hunter does not tour the country with a Nazi sympathizer as Eric Trump does. That link is worth your four minutes because — just as elements of today’s Republican Party seem to be taking Russia’s side over our own — so the resurgent American Nazi movement has found a home, along with Q-Anon and the Boogaloo Bois, in today’s G.O.P. And, yes, the Boogaloo Bois Are Back. Bigger than you think. I promise lighter fare tomorrow, with less to click, but let me end with another of Arnold’s videos. The former Republican Governor has a message for the neo-Nazis and white nationalists. It is so powerful, not least because his father was a Nazi. Some Americans thought we were on the wrong side of that war, too.
Laugh? Cry? Explode? March 14, 2023 Have you read Elizabeth Warren’s op-ed? Silicon Valley Bank Is Gone. We Know Who Is Responsible. She is pissed. So is Barbara Morrill — but she’s funny, too: Kevin McCarthy’s deal with the devil has worked out great—for Democrats. . . . When the “red wave” never materialized in the 2022 midterms, McCarthy made a decision to relinquish whatever ethics and morals he had left, preferring to cave to the extremists in his party, all in pursuit of the speaker’s gavel. What he really handed over was a gift to Democrats. . . . (That’s not the funny part. Give it a read.) And here is John Oliver on DeSantis. Funny, pissed, and seemingly ready to explode at any moment. His rant won’t change minds; but those of us who don’t see DeSantis as the answer will get a kick out of it. Warning: strong language, hyperbole, polemic. When a Q-Anon supporter is made Speaker of the House Pro-Tem, one doesn’t know whether to laugh, cry, or explode. Personally, I lean toward . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . the suspense builds . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . though you suspect there’s a trick in here someplace . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . .winning back the House.
Finally — An Email From Me Asking You NOT To Give Money March 13, 2023March 12, 2023 That was the subject line. I sent it to 1,500 people. Most already knew the three Members of Congress running to fill retiring Dianne Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat. It read: I love Katie Porter. I love Barbara Lee. I love Adam Schiff. But there are just three possible outcomes. THE CATASTROPHE: WE LOSE IT ALL So MANY wonderful Dems get into this open primary, splitting the vote, that the top two vote-getters are Republicans, meaning that we lose the seat altogether – and possibly control of the Senate itself. THE DISASTER: WE LOSE A GREAT DEAL We win – but lose three great House members. AND will have spent a fortune fighting each other in the primary. AND may have lost Katie’s seat altogether (and perhaps even the House itself, as a result!). She spent $24 million last year to edge out a guy who spent a tenth as much. She’s a hero for winning in such a tough district — and may be the ONLY hero who can hold it for us. THE SOLUTION: WE WIN IT ALL What we donors need is an informal consensus to form around just ONE of these three amazing candidates, and then to give – to the extent we give at all — only to her or him. My suggestion is that we let someone really, really smart guide us on this – ideally, a progressive champion who knows California and knows how to count votes. A winner, basically. Which is why Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement of Adam Schiff solves the problem. All [Dems] should give only to Adam or to no one at all . . . and urge Katie and Barbara — TALENTS WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE — to follow the leader . . . possibly determining control of the Senate or the House (if 2024 turns out to be the squeaker it may be) and freeing up tens of millions of Democratic dollars to fight MAGA Republicans. If this makes sense to you, please spread the word. (And, as always, click here.) Thanks! Another scenario might have Governor Newsom tapping Barbara Lee to fill out the Senator’s term if she retires early (good for his Presidential run, if in some year he makes one?) . . . at which point I hope Porter, at least, might drop out in time to retain her House seat. And maybe Schiff, too. Aged 49 and 62, respectively, each would have another shot at this in 6 years when then-Senator Lee — contemplating a second term that would run past her 90th birthday — would likely opt for a well deserved rest. But the main thing is: Democrats spent $100 million in Florida choosing which candidate would go on to lose the governorship to Ron DeSantis by less than half of one percent in 2018. Would it have made sense to spend, maybe, $15 million instead and use the other $85 million to beat DeSantis? That’s the sort of thinking I hope we might do prospectively here, and thereby retain Senator Feinstein’s seat and the talents of all three exceptionally good candidates now running to fill it. ARE YOU AN ACTIVIST? MIGHT YOU BECOME ONE? Here’s a menu of keynotes and panels that might interest you, organized by Field Team Six and kicking off Thursday at 11am EDT (8am PDT). Zoom in to part of it? It’s free. THE AVERTED BANKING CRISIS At this writing, it looks as though the Administration is doing what’s required to keep the banking system upright. The shareholders and bondholders of Silicon Valley Bank and others will be largely or entirely wiped out (that’s how capitalism works); but at no cost to their depositors or the taxpayers (broadly speaking, that’s how the Dodd-Frank legislation works). It’s nice to have serious, competent, experienced people running the federal government.
Ahhhh-nold March 10, 2023March 9, 2023 There’s so much I want to write about — Uri’s reaction to Monday’s post, your reactions to Tuesday’s guest post by ChatGPT — but today . . . . . . start with this, the most important film Arnold Schwarzenegger ever made. Seven minutes. You’ve probably already seen it — I had — but it’s worth watching again. And then treat yourself to this profile in the Atlantic. . . . Schwarzenegger was born two years after World War II ended and grew up, as he put it, “in the ruins of a country that suffered the loss of its democracy.” His father, Gustav Schwarzenegger, was a police chief in Graz, Austria, and fought for the Nazis. Schwarzenegger has spoken more freely of late about his father’s activities and his own attempts to reconcile with them. History need not repeat—that has been his essential theme. Hatred and prejudice are not inevitable features of humanity. “You don’t have to be stuck in that,” he told me. Humans “have the capacity to change.” . . . Have a great weekend!
In Case Someone Gets Hit By A Bus March 9, 2023March 8, 2023 IF IT’S A FRIEND’S LOVED ONE . . . I found Glenn Sonnenberg’s How Do You Empathize When the Grief Is Great? uncommonly wise and helpful. IF IT’S YOU . . . Larry Francis: “I’ve found a book, In Case you Get Hit by a Bus, that is SO helpful for how to organize your life and paperwork in case your life ends abruptly. It is an exhaustive but helpful list of things you might not have thought of. It has suggestions for solutions. BUT it doesn’t list the best place to put all the documents for someone trying to organize your life while you’re in a coma or a casket. The place I’ve found for that is fidsafe.com. It’s a FREE service of Fidelity and has been available for many years without any advertising or promotion. It’s easy to use and fits nicely with the ‘bus’ book. Documents are locked up and secure until the folks you designate get access. Too many features to list them all here — check it out.”
A Whole New Thing For Us As A Country March 8, 2023March 7, 2023 Georgia’s Republicans are poised to squelch the prosecution of Trump for his effort to find “just 11,780 votes.” They’ve decided they can’t trust a jury to decide the case; they need to be able to fire the prosecutor and shut it all down. Watch. As the host says — and I know some of you don’t like her, but you should listen anyway because our democracy is at stake — “this is a whole new thing for us as a country.” I’ve taken a gamble on UNIT. At $4.70, with a 60-cent dividend, it yields 12%. Check it out if you have a high tolerance for risk. If interest rates stay high for three or four years, I will lose all my money (less dividends I may have received along the way). If interest rates moderate after a year or two, I could earn that yield for a long time and enjoy a capital gain when I sold. I can afford to lose that $4.70. None of us can afford to lose our democracy. The world cannot afford for us to lose our democracy. Watch. (And if you can, help.)