Author: A.T.

Putin’s Winning Streak Begins to End November 3

“I KNOW THE SECRET OF WHY TRUMP TRULY FEARS PUTIN”

Well, there’s a bit of click-bait in that Daily Beast podcast title, but it’s definitely worth listening to the author of Betrayal: Trump, Putin and The New Age of Conquest.  He details the decades-long relationship between Trump and Putin.

Harding reveals what he experienced firsthand while reporting in Moscow, including the surveillance and intimidation campaign that ultimately led to his expulsion, before turning to the startling possibility that Russian state television has used Melania Trump as a warning to her husband.

Russia’s intelligence services, he says, couldn’t believe their success in 2016 — let alone in 2024.

OCTOBER 17!

Here’s the No King’s Vote Early event I’ve signed up for— 2pm-4pm in New York.

Click here to find one near you.  There will be thousands around the country.

Then, just a few days later, we go out and vote to end this nightmare . . . voting early, wherever possible . . . in unprecedented numbers.

The momentous first step on what will be the long — long — road back to a country the free world can once again embrace and admire.

Treating Putin as the corrupt, murderous war criminal he is, rather than a “savvy genius” who is the one man Trump has never insulted.

BONUS

I was deeply impressed by the extensive “election protection” resources and contingency planning the DNC has put in place, as outlined in a presentation I was privy to yesterday.  I coughed up yet another $10,000 — which is not nothing to me, a poor writer on Social Security — because this is our moment.

We don’t have to fight for democracy against a mad king at Valley Forge or against fascism on the beaches of Normandy or against Putin in Ukraine — none of which I would have been brave enough to do.  But we do have to support the opposition.

 

The Good News

AMERICA BEFORE TRUMP

Five minutes that hit home.  Share with good people who have not yet left MAGA . . . but are having doubts.  There are a lot of them.

PLAINLY PUT . . . 

“He f****d up” (60 seconds).

THE GOOD NEWS

Even though 32% of Americans still tell pollsters they approve of the job Trump — enabled by his Republicans Congress — is doing, 68% don’t.

We’re going to see a huge blue wave.

With massive “early voting” to avoid long lines and make sure our votes are counted.  (Which increases the efficiency of our turn-out operations, because once we know someone has voted, we can refocus our resources on those who haven’t.)

It will be the crucial first step in rescuing democracy, restoring competence, and, eventually, earning back some of the world’s respect and good will.

I can’t wait.

 

Four Books For Your Consideration

1. This Is the Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy, by Ben Wikler — a great read or, better still, listen.

Perfect for the millions — young and old — who hate what’s going on but don’t think they can make a difference.

They can!

And if they’re a little bored or lonely or feeling unfulfilled, it could solve those problems, too.

2. How Russia Won, by David Korn: “The little-understood story of Putin’s secret campaign to subvert America.”

Carl knows this is a hoax, like climate change and Covid and the “affordability” crisis — Trump has the concept of a plan for great health care, and that’s good enough for him.  The Mueller Report was a witch hunt and a hoax and all those women who accused Trump of sexual harassment (and worse) were lying . . . so when Trump tells us that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was genius or that he’s not Putin’s puppet — that Hillary was Putin’s puppet — well, that’s good enough for MAGA and good enough, it seems, for Carl.  If you can’t trust Donald Trump to tell the truth, whom can you trust?

A compelling narrative with the verve and twists of a spy novel—yet it’s all true—How Russia Won chronicles a deeply disturbing reality: Putin has succeeded in his twilight war against the United States by helping to land in the White House an agent of chaos, disruption, and authoritarianism who has exacerbated divisions within the United States, undermined American democracy, created conflict within the Western alliance and throughout the world, and diminished Washington’s standing across the globe. It’s a chilling account of Trump’s strange relationship with Putin and how both have gotten away with this assault on the United States.

Just last week . . .

3. The BreakUp by Kurt Andersen.  I’m halfway through listening and, well, it’s great . . . imagining the country after it splits into two countries (80% of Utah, by territory, joins the Free American Republic but 80% of the people — city dwellers — choose to remain in the United States of America . . . and there’s a 180-year-old turtle whose memories we’ve been able to translate into English . . . ans so much more.

4. Good Morning Moon, wherein my friend of more than four decades, “the bestselling poet, novelist, and biographer” Brad Gooch, offers a “luminous memoir about the decision to start a family later in life” with his husband — no slouch in his own right — and the birth and raising of their two children.  Quite a change of pace from the three above.  A great listen.

 

It Feels Like The MAGA Movement Is Collapsing

The European Union embraces Canada.  Two-and-a-half historic minutes.  Imagine that: world leaders acting like responsible, dignified, serious people for the betterment of their citizens.

What a concept.

Sheldon Whitehouse on the Judiciary Committee.  Four devastating minutes.  Imagine that: a dignified, competent senator serious about the rule of law.

What a concept.

The view from Denmark.  Three heart-wrenching minutes.

Remember when we were the good guys?

AND NOW THE GOOD NEWS

Heather Cox Richardson: It feels like the MAGA movement is collapsing.

“The United States’ standing in the world has collapsed,” she says, “at the same time that the American economy that Donald Trump promised would so great is also in dire straits.”

Carl and millions like him believe Trump’s second term has proved wonderfully successful — as for Trump, it has been.  He’s made billions.

But millions more, who had high hopes when they reelected him, feel betrayed.

With any luck, they will join the huge blue wave — or at the very least, November 3, stay home.

We’re gonna win.

 

Must Read

If you haven’t yet listened to Ben Wikler’s This Is the Plan (at 1.2 or 1.3 speed) or read it (though you’ll miss the enthusiasm in Ben’s voice) . . . that’s part 1 of your assignment for the weekend.

I’m serious.  You should really do this.

I believe it will leave you — as it has left me — raring for Part 2.

Part 2 is to share it with anyone you know who feels helpless or hopeless — whether it be a cynical young person or a despairing old person . . . or just the typical person who cares, sure, but doesn’t think he or she can really do anything. 

Listening to this book could totally lift their spirits, enrich their lives, and lead them to make a real difference.

Part 3 is to arm them with this just-released messaging guide.

Scores above 60 are good.

These 89 messages score way higher.

We’re gonna win!

CORRECTION: Yesterday’s 104-year-old kick-ass woman was fake (though not her facts).  My bad.

 

A Tale Of Three Men (And One Kick-Ass Woman)

The three men are:

> Paul Raushenbush an openly gay Baptist minister for the past early three decades, married with two kids — whose great-grandfathers, just so you know, were Mr. Justice Louis Brandeis, of the United States Supreme Court, on one side, and prominent Baptist theologian Walter Rauschenbusch on the other.  (The ‘Cs’ got dropped from Rauschenbusch somewhere along the line.)

> Senator Dr. Roger Marshall of Kansas, running for reelection, who recently gained national prominence for ‘unbelievably aggressive’ lawsuits against 700 of his patients over unpaid bills on which he charged 18% interest, 81 of whom he had arrested.  (And who as a senator voted to cut the medical insurance subsidies that make it possible for struggling patents to pay doctor bills.)

> Reverend Adam Hamilton, who married his high school sweetheart LaVon the week after graduation 44 years ago; founded with just four congregants 36 years ago what has grown to be the largest United Methodist church in the country, with 25,000 Kansans); and who is running to unseat Marshall.

So now you know the cast of characters.

Here’s what Paul Raushenbush posted on Facebook after attending a Hamilton fundraiser in New York Tuesday night.  (They had not met before.)  David Letterman is the one with the beard.

Nice, no?

And here’s what Senator Marshall released the next day.

Apparently, his team constantly surfs the web for any reference to his opponent.

For the record:

The fundraiser was not in Washington; Raushenbush was not the host; he is not “crazy”; he is not “a maniac.”

He is, rather, the widely-respected president of the Interfaith Alliance — though it’s true that he supports what he calls “the God-given dignity of all people, including Americans who are trans and members of the drag community.” 

“I find inspiration and joy from my friendships with people who are different from me,” he says.  “Advocating for their equality and dignity is a reflection of my own deeply-held faith.” 

Is that crazy?  Or is it profoundly American: advocating for the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness however you find it, so long as you’re not hurting anyone else.

Marshall rarely exposes himself to everyday Kansans.  When he did recently — in a “ruby red” county — his constituents booed and shouted “shame”.

Hamilton, by contrast, is hugely accessible, decent, and comfortable to talk to.

He’s going to win.

The kick-ass woman, meanwhile — if you’ve not yet seen this clip — is Representative Joyce Beatty of Ohio, who sits on the Kennedy Center board. 

The first minute or two will delight you.  

Have a great day.

Could This Bull Market Be Over?

John Hook has been bullish long after I thought that was warranted (and has been right), so I took special notice when he sent this out to his clients over the weekend:

Thursday 9/10 we went net short because of inflation, interest rate, political, geopolitical, and AI risks.

Negatives
  • Inflation is above historical inflection levels. Historically, inflation has been the main inflector;
  • World oil demand exceeds supply by about 1.5 to 5.5 mbpd, probably about 3-4. Inventories are low and decreasing. Oil prices, already too high, probably go higher because of Middle East and Black Sea restrictions.  Higher oil prices probably push up inflation and interest rates;
  • Interest rates are near levels which have sometimes inflected the economy and stocks. Large federal, private ( especially datacenter), and world borrowing probably push interest rates higher;
  • P/Es are high. Forward P/Es are within norms but based on a second year of very aggressive accounting and growth assumptions;
  • Debt/GDP levels are high;
  • AI token and GPU rental prices are decreasing faster than revenues are increasing;
  • Stocks favor Republican pro-growth policies and will likely sell off as Democrats are perceived likely to win the mid-term or when they win the mid-terms;
  • Geopolitics are unstable; and
  • September to mid or late October has been the worst stock time of year, especially during mid-term elections

Positives

  • Real GDP is strong. But it is partially based on heavy federal and datacenter borrowing;
  • Earnings will be very strong y/y, but down q/q.  EPS will likely beat estimates.  Guidance may be mixed, very positive yet with many cautions; and
  • Stocks have done well under divided government or Republican 3rd years.

Mixed or Uncertain

  • EPS accounting includes legal but Ponzi-like circular revenues and gains from companies partially capitalized by the hyperscalers from whom they buy services. Much expense is “construction in progress” and not yet depreciated but soon will be ahead.
  • Republicans could win the mid-terms.
  • With AI leaders (Amodei, Altman, Musk) and Democrats calling for an AI and data center slow-down, growth may slow or crash.

We evaluate the above as correction or bearish.

Hook & Co.

As you know, I haven’t been selling my crazy speculaitons.  But I’d say this is a time for extreme caution.