Author: A.T.

Inflation (And My Latest Folly)

INFLATION

It sucks that things are painfully more expensive than they were pre-pandemic.

There are two ways to get our buying power back to where it was:

> One is for wages to rise . . . a condition generally associated with Prosperity.

> The other is for prices to fall . . . a condition called deflation generally associated with the Depression.

We seem to be on track for the former.  Better, no?

Lately, incomes have been outpacing inflation.  Stock prices, and thus 401Ks, are at record highs. Inflation itself is back close to the 2% annual rate the Fed shoots for.  Year over year, prices are up 3%; but month over month, the CPI is about unchanged from where it was in November. 

Even so, it’s really tough out there.  The 1% are doing great — and Republicans are relentless in trying to lower their taxes and cripple IRS efforts to collect even that much.  But most Americans are not in the top 1%. 

There were three principal causes of the inflation we suffered:

1. Putin’s invasion sent the world oil price soaring.  A totally unjustified act of war that Trump saw as brilliant, but that caused Americans great economic pain.  And before you blame Biden for shutting down U.S. oil production, please note that we’re currently pumping more than in any year under Trump — more, indeed, than any country in history.

(ENVIRONMENTALISTS: Until energy needs can be lowered by means of increased efficiency and conservation . . . and met by means of renewables . . . someone has to make up the difference . . . the profits from which will flow somewhere . . . enriching someone.  It doesn’t matter to the climate crisis whether it’s Iran or Russia or the U.S.  So better us than them, not least so that we can use the tax revenue from those profits, and some of the profits themselves, to fund and expand the massive climate-change initiative President Biden has launched.)

2. The pandemic massively disrupted supply chains around the world.  One could argue that if Trump hadn’t slashed Obama’s forward-deployed NIH teams in China and elsewhere the pandemic might have been contained.  But rather than blame him for the pandemic, I think it’s enough to say for the purposes of this discussion that it surely wasn’t President Biden who caused the pandemic or those supply chain disruptions.

3. The American Rescue Plan and other efforts to avert the depression that widespread business and personal bankruptcies could easily have caused.  Would we have today’s record low unemployment and record high stock prices had more modest efforts been made?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  But trimming those efforts would have done nothing to avoid Putin’s higher world energy prices or COVID’s supply-chain disruptions.  So blame Biden some of the inflation we had in those two years (largely gone now) — but credit him, if you do, with averting the recession or depression and financial collapse that would have hurt a lot worse.

MY LATEST FOLLY

Summarized in this press release.

Buy shares of RNGE, if you do, only with money you can truly afford to lose.  As long-time readers know only too well, that is not an idle warning!

I’ve made this longer analysis microscopic lest it detract from the much more important topic above.  It appeared on MicroCapClub.Com by Michael Liu whose firm — like me — has an investment in RNGE at 15 cents a share.  To read it, just cut and paste it somewhere and increase the font size:

Range Impact was created in early 2022 as a play on the coal mine remediation services industry. Since that time, they’ve grown revenues from zero to $15 million in annual revenues and profitable. The two biggest strategics in their industry own 23%  and 30% (50%+ combined) of RNGE’s shares that they acquired through placements. These strategics are now funneling $10s of millions of business to Range as their strategic services provider. Range was created by the team of Joseph Loconti, who has overseen several public multi-baggers throughout his career, including founding $3 billion CBIZ (alongside Wayne Huizenga), which was a 10 bagger one year after its IPO and a 40-bagger through today.

History

The Range story started when Joe Loconti and his family office, fresh off a big win, invested $5 million into a tiny microcap biotech called Vitality Biopharma. They didn’t think much of it. It was just another high risk-reward position in the portfolio. Unfortunately, over the next 6 months, Vitality’s stock was delisted and investors realized Vitality’s management had defrauded them. In 3 years Vitality’s stock had declined from $8 to <$1. Loconti was forced to intervene and wound up replacing the entire board and management team.

Any normal investor would simply write off the loss and move on, but Loconti had brought in friends and family in this deal, and felt beholden to Vitality’s other legacy investors to “make them whole” again since he now controlled the entire company management. However, Loconti knew nothing about development-stage biotech. So for the new direction of Vitality, Loconti and his team focused on something they understood very well: Coal mine remediation.

Over the next 3 years, they built a remediation services company from the ground up. Small acquisitions here and there, buying equipment, hiring employees one by one, and suddenly Vitality Biopharma had transformed into Range Impact, with 50+ employees operating 60+ pieces of equipment doing over $3 million of revenue per quarter.

Why is Range Unique?

It’s likely that nobody besides Loconti’s team could have executed this strategy so successfully. It’s hard to break into the coal remediation services industry. The most important factor for winning remediation contracts is prior experience, and without contracts you can’t have prior experience so this chicken and egg problems is a huge barrier to entry.

Range circumvented this problem because Loconti had prior strategic relationships in coal mining. First, his family office owns Continental Heritage, the second largest provider of coal mine surety bonds in the US. Surety bonds are guarantees from an insurance company that if the coal miner goes out of business, the mine is still funded for remediation/asset retirement obligations. In short, Continental guarantees that a coal mine will be cleaned up. Through Continental/Loconti, Range also knows Indemnity National which is by far the largest surety bond provider in the US. Indemnity National and Continental own 50%+ of RNGE’s stock that they bought through placements around current prices.

These are very valuable relationships because once every few years Indemnity/Continental are stuck with remediation obligations for a coal mine when the operator goes bankrupt. The insurers are forced to foreclose on the mine and take control of it, and are then stuck with $10s of millions of asset retirement obligations. All Continental/Indemnity cares about at this point is getting the remediation work done as cheapy and quickly as possible. This means they need a remediation services company that they can trust. And who better to trust than yourself? That’s why Loconti created Range.

This is what happened ~2 years ago when Continental foreclosed on a large coal mine in West Virginia called Fola. Fola has ~$50 million of total remediation obligations and Continental decided to give all of the remediation work to Range. To date, Fola has comprised ~80% of Range’s total revenues, but they are in discussions to get a lot more mines under contract from Continental, Indemnity, and third-party mine owners. I’d expect that over the next few quarters Range can get another 1-2 major mine reclamation contracts from either Continental or Indemnity, which could double the size of their business in short order since the current revenue base is almost entirely just work on the one Fola mine.

There are hundreds of thousands of acres of coal mine land that needs to be cleaned up in West Virginia and Kentucky. If you want to understand how big the opportunity is just watch this video.

More On Loconti

Joe Loconti is not someone that should be involved at all in a $30 million microcap. He’s had exactly 5 involvements in public companies and each one was a resounding success.

– CBIZ – Loconti was Vice Chairman and it IPOed in 1995 at $1. The stock grew to $20 less than a year later (mainly because Wayne Huizenga was involved). They did 100s of acquisitions in a span of 5 years and today the stock is still a 40 bagger from IPO.
– ProCentury Group – was a spinoff from CBIZ with Loconti as a large holder and Loconti’s long time business associate Edward Feighan as CEO. It spunoff in 2004 at $10.50 per share and was bought out in 2008 at $20 per share.
– WCA Waste – Loconti’s team got involved in late 2009 at $3.50 and sold it for $6.50 in early 2012.
– The Joint – IPO investor and provided them some debt financing over the years.
– Vitality – TBD

Keep in mind that Loconti’s family office primarily invests in private companies. These are just incidental investments for them that happened to be public but are indicative of the type of success that Loconti’s team is involved in.

Loconti is involved in the oversight of Range as a large shareholder, but it’s really the CIO of his family office Michael Cavanaugh who is calling the shots. Michael is a former consultant and we’ve been very impressed by his ability to execute in the short time that we’ve known him. He bought $150k worth of stock in the recent placement and so is aligned with shareholders.

What’s Next?

Now it’s clear that this is a pretty unique situation. A very successful businessman’s team is involved in a very tiny microcap because of circumstantial reasons. He is able to quickly jumpstart Range’s operations because of all the strategic relationships he has in the coal mining industry. There is an easy path to market for the next 50-100% growth in the business by just taking on more of their strategic partners’ mines, but how does this become the 50-100 bagger that we all want in something as pent-up as this?

First: AML Mines

There are probably less than 5 mines in total that are owned by insurance companies like Continental, so that is a limited market opportunity. A much bigger opportunity is 100s of mines owned by the state of West Virginia and Kentucky through the abandoned mine land (AML) program. Before 1977, coal miners were not required to have reclamation surety bonds, so after miners drained the land for coal, they simply left. Over time those reclamation obligations were transferred to the state, which now owns 100s of abandoned mine lands that they have to clean up, with historically almost no funding to do so.

The new Infrastructure Bill has changed this dynamic and is providing West Virginia and Kentucky >$100 million in funding per year to clean up AML mines. This is a much bigger TAM opportunity than taking on insurance companies’ mines, but will also be more competitive. I’d expect over the coming quarters RNGE will take on some AML contracts starting small and then consistently growing. The bulk of the Infrastructure Bill funding hits next spring which is when I’d expect the inflection to really begin.

Second: Land

Reclamation work is not a great standalone business. It’s lumpy, low margin, and competitive. The long term value of coal mines and RNGE is in the land. The ability to quickly and cost-effectively clean up several 1000 acres of land creates opportunity to monetize the land for recurring income. RNGE recently announced a small acquisition of a land parcel from Indemnity National to test out this strategy with solar farms. We’ll see what IRRs they are able ot generate with this land but I’d expect in the long-term we see RNGE find more creative ways to acquire they land that they are cleaning up and monetize it. Some examples of this would be partnering with Continental to acquire an AML mine (Continental takes on the reclamation liability and RNGE does the reclamation work and retains an option to monetize the land in the long-term).

Conclusion

Today RNGE is at 1x sales and will likely keep growing from getting more work from pseudo-related parties and the start of AML work. In a year they could get substantially more work from strategics giving them large individual coal mine reclamation contracts, and new funding from the Infrastructure Bill for states to clean up historic abandoned mine lands. In 5 years they should own large amounts of land that they’re cleaned up with high margin recurring income from things like solar farms.

I know it’s a messy thesis but management gives me confidence. Loconti is one of the most successful businessmen around having founded companies with the likes of Wayne Huizenga and Michael DeGroot. And he is very committed to generating shareholder value, otherwise he would have just left this investment for dead years ago when the biotech fraud occurred. Loconti and other strategics have put in $10m+ of cash into this $30m market cap nanocap and they wouldn’t be involved unless they believed it had multi-bagger potential.

The details on how to execute their strategy are a little vague for now but that’s because this company works at lightning speed. The entire current $15 million revenue business was built from scratch within the last 2 years. Who can say what happens in another two? I just think the stock will go up.

Disclosure: I am an analyst at IFCM which recently participated in a placement with Range.

For Richer Or For Poorer

Let’s say you take a vow (call it an oath) to stand by your spouse for richer or for poorer, in sickness and in health.

The vow is witnessed by the largest crowd ever to witness a marriage (or at least so you claim).

Ever.

Now a few years have passed.

The marriage has gotten rocky.

You’re in your office with one of those high-end surveillance systems that let you see what’s going on inside and outside your home.

On your way in, you were complaining to your acolytes that your spouse has treated you rotten lately . . . that she’s thinking of ditching you (and boy are you ever steamed about that, boy are you ever the victim in this relationship).  And you exhorted them to fight like hell to persuade her to stick with you.  If not forever (though possibly), then for at least four more years.

You know that these folks would do almost anything for you — you have the same kind of power over them Jim Jones had over his crowd — and so now you’re back at your office watching as they attack your wife.

You re-wind some of the most violent parts to watch them again.

Your children — and staff from inside the House itself — beg you over and over to call it off . . . to call the police . . . to do something to rescue your wife.

But for more than 20 minutes . . . more than 40 minutes . . . more than an hour watching this . . . more than two hours!  More than three hours! . . . you do nothing.

QUESTION: Would you say you had honored that vow (oath) you took?

I mean, come on, people.  This is not rocket science.  You saw it with your own eyes.  How is this defending your spouse?  Or, in this case the Constitution?

It’s not good enough to accept election results only when you win.

It’s not good enough to accept judicial findings — many of them rendered by your own appointees — only when they’re in your favor.

It’s not good enough to cherish the peaceful transfer of power only when it is transferred to you.

It’s not good enough for the Supreme Court to uphold the Constitution (in this case, the Fourteenth Amendment) when Trammell Crow tells you it’s okay to do so.

It’s just not.

Meanwhile, as I was writing that yesterday, Trump was in court watching his lawyer argue that, under the law, a president can do literally anything — even kill his political opponents — and never face criminal prosecution unless first impeached and convicted.  I’m sure you’ve seen that by now.

If true, then a president — Trump, say, in a second term — could kill anyone he didn’t like . . . and then, if impeached, kill whatever Senators he feared might vote to convict.  End of story.

(It’s probably worth noting that the only reason he wasn’t convicted — the vote was “only” 57-43 when it needed to be two-thirds — is that Majority Leader McConnell told his team impeachment was the wrong route to take; that once out of office two weeks later, he would be criminally liable.  Otherwise, McConnell — and presumably those who looked to his leadership — would have added their votes to the 57.  Indeed, in a secret ballot, the vote would have been more like 98-2.)

ONE MUST-SEE MINUTE

Here.

 

You Are What You Eat / Coffee Or Tea

This four-part Netflix doc is so worth the time:

You Are What You Eat: A Twin Experiment.  

You may (or may not) want to skip ahead a little in the beginning, when they’re introducing the twins and taking all their baseline stats before beginning their 8-week vegan-versus-omnivore diets . . . but it’s about three things I’m guessing you care about:

  1. Your health, vitality, and longevity.
  2. The planet.  (“Every time you eat a steak, a little puff of smoke goes up in the Amazon.”)  Fascinating to see how and why Eleven Madison Park went vegan and retained its 3 Michelin stars.  And to learn the effect today’s 1.7 billion cows have on climate.
  3. Animal cruelty.  Cows and chickens, pigs — and, yes, fish.  I knew a lot of this stuff, but . . . wow.  Meet the guy who went from raising millions of chickens in four enormous CAFOs to, now, growing mushrooms instead.  And the founder of Impossible meat.  And the woman who makes plant-based cheese.

If you haven’t made yourself a Beyond or Impossible burger lately, watching You Are What You Eat (here’s the 2-minute trailer) — just might get you to try one.  When you do, I think you may find they really now are just as delicious as the estimated 50 billion planet-destroying, cow-torturing variety Americans eat every year.

I’m no strict vegetarian, let alone vegan . . . but I’m leaning ever more that way.

BONUS: COFFEE OR TEA

Turns out, both are good for you.

Here’s a fun way to find out which is better.

 

The Sacred Cause of Democracy

But first (3 minutes) . . . former Republican Rick Wilson:

“A coup that goes unpunished is a training exercise.”

His comparison at the end is apples and oranges — Bin Laden hoped to kill everyone in the Capitol; Trump merely hoped to overturn democracy.

Yet now that I think about it, replacing all those senators and representatives, tragic as their murders would have been, would have been a lot easier than restoring democracy.  The former would have taken just weeks; the latter, if possible at all, decades.

And now . . . the President’s speech.

“Go ahead and watch the whole thing,” suggests Kevin Drum, “and then tell me if Biden seems cognitively limited.”

Or if you don’t have 34 minutes, take 5 to read it:

President Biden on the Third Anniversary of the January 6th Attack and Defending the Sacred Cause of American DemocracyAUDIENCE:  Four more years!  Four more years!  Four more years!

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you.  Please.  Thank you.  Please.  Thank you very, very much.

The topic of my speech today is deadly serious, and I think it needs to be made at the outset of this campaign.

In the winter of 1777, it was harsh and cold as the Continental Army marched to Valley Forge.  General George Washington knew he faced the most daunting of tasks: to fight and win a war against the most powerful empire that existed in the world at the time.

His mission was clear.  Liberty, not conquest.  Freedom, not domination.  National independence, not individual glory.

America made a vow.  Never again would we bow down to a king.

The months ahead would be incredibly difficult.  But General Washington knew something in his bones, something about the spirit of the troops he was leading, something — something about the soul of the nation he [that] was struggling to be born.

In his general order, he predicted, and I quote, “with one heart and one mind,” “with fortitude and with patience,” they would overcome every difficulty — the troops he was leading.

And they did.  They did.

This army that lacked blankets and food, clothes and shoes.  This army whose march left bloody, bare footprints in the snow.  This ragtag army made up of ordinary people.  Their mission, George Washington declared, was nothing less than “a sacred cause.”  That was the phrase used: “a sacred cause.”

Freedom, liberty, democracy.  American democracy.

I just visited the grounds of Valley Forge.  I’ve been there a number of times from the time I was a Boy Scout years ago.  You know, it’s the very site that I think every American should visit because it tells the story of the pain and the suffering and the true patriotism it took to make America.

Today, we gather in a new year, some 246 years later, just one day before January 6th, a day forever shared in our memory because it was on that day that we nearly lost America — lost it all.

Today, we’re here to answer the most important of questions.  Is democracy still America’s sacred cause?  I mean it.  (Applause.)

This is not rhetorical, academic, or hypothetical.  Whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time, and it’s what the 2024 election is all about.

The choice is clear.  Donald Trump’s campaign is about him, not America, not you.  Donald Trump’s campaign is obsessed with the past, not the future.  He’s willing to sacrifice our democracy, put himself in power.

Our campaign is different.  For me and Kamala, our campaign is about America.  It’s about you.  It’s about every age and background that occupy this country.  It’s about the future we’re going to continue to build together.

And our campaign is about preserving and strengthening our American democracy.  Three years ago tomorrow, we saw with our own eyes the violent mob storm the United States Capitol.  It was almost in disbelief as you first turned on the television.

For the first time on our history, insurrectionists had come to stop the peaceful transfer of power in America — first time — smashing windows, shattering doors, attacking the police.

Outside, gallows were erected as the MAGA crowd chanted, “Hang Mike Pence.”

Inside, they hunted for Speaker Pelosi [of] the House, was chanting, as they marched through and smashed windows, “Where’s Nancy?”

Over 140 police officers were injured.  Jill and I attended the funeral of police officers who died as a result of the events of that day.

And because Donald — because of Donald Trump’s lies, they died because these lies brought a mob to Washington.

He promised it would be “wild,” and it was.  He told the crowd to “fight like hell,” and all hell was unleashed.

As America was attacked from within, Donald Trump watched on TV in the private small dining room off the Oval Office.

The entire nation watched in horror.  The whole world watched in disbelief.  And Trump did nothing.

Members of his staff, members of his family, Republican leaders who were under attack for the — at that very moment pled with him: “Act.  Call off the mob.”

Imagine had he gone out and said, “Stop.”

And still, Trump did nothing.  It was among the worst derelictions of duty by a president in American history: an attempt to overturn a free and fair election by force and violence.

A record 81 million people voted for my candidacy and to end his presidency.  Trump lost the popular vote by 7 million.

Trump’s claims about the 2020 election never could stand up in court.  Trump lost 60 court cases — 60.  Trump lost the Republican-controlled states.  Trump lost before a Trump-appointed judge — and then judges.  And Trump lost before the United States Supreme Court.  (Applause.)  All of it, he lost.

Trump lost recount after recount after recount in state after state.  But in desperation and weakness, Trump and his MAGA followers went after election officials who ensured your power as a citizen would be heard.  These public servants had their lives forever upended by attacks and death threats for simply doing their jobs.

In Atlanta, Georgia, a brave Black mother and her daughter, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, were doing their jobs as elected workers until Donald Trump and his MAGA followers targeted and threatened them, forcing them from their homes and unleashing racist vitriol on them.  Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, was just hit with $148 million judgment for cruelty and defamation that he inflicted against them.

Other state and local elected officials across the country faced similar personal attacks.  In addition, Fox News agreed to pay a record $787 million for the lies they told about voter fraud.

Let’s be clear about the 2020 election.  Trump exhausted every legal avenue available to him to overturn the election — every one.  But the legal path just took Trump back to the truth that I had won the election and he was a loser.  (Applause.)

Well, knowing how his mind works now, he had one — he had one act left — one desperate act available to him: the violence of January the 6th.

And since that day, more than 1,200 people have been charged for their assault on the Capitol.  Nearly 900 of them have been convicted or pled guilty.  Collectively, to date, they have been sentenced to more than 840 years in prison.  (Applause.)

And what has Trump done?  Instead of calling them “criminals,” he’s called these insurrectionists “patriots.”  They’re “patriots.”  And he promised to pardon them if he returns to office.

Trump said that there was “a lot of love” on January the 6th.  The rest of the nation, including law enforcement, saw a lot of hate and violence.  One Capitol police officer called it a “medieval battle.”

He said he was more afraid in the Capitol of the United States of America, in the chambers, than when he was fighting as a soldier in the war in Iraq.

In trying to rewrite the facts of January 6th, Trump is trying to steal history the same way he tried to steal the election.  But we know the truth because we saw it with our own eyes.  It wasn’t like something — a story being told.  It was on television repeatedly.  We saw it with our own eyes.

Trump’s mob wasn’t a peaceful protest.  It was a violent assault.  They were insurrectionists, not patriots.  They weren’t there to uphold the Constitution; they were there to destroy the Constitution.

Trump won’t do what an American president must do.  He refuses to denounce political violence.

So, hear me clearly.  I’ll say what Donald Trump won’t.  Political violence is never, ever acceptable in the United States political system — never, never, never.  It has no place in a democracy.  None.

You can’t be pro-insurrectionist and pro-American.

You know, Trump and his MAGA supporters not only embrace political violence, but they laugh about it.  At his rally, he jokes about an intruder, whipped up by the Big Trump Lie, taking a hammer to Paul Pelosi’s skull and echoing the very same words used on January 6th: “Where’s Nancy?”

And he thinks that’s funny.  He laughed about it.  What a sick — (laughter and applause).  My God.

I think it’s despicable, seriously — not just for a president, for any person to say that.  But to say it to the whole world listening.

Trump’s assault on democracy isn’t just part of his past.  It’s what he’s promising for the future.  He’s being straightforward.  He’s not hiding the ball.

His first rally for the 2024 campaign opened with a choir of January 6th insurrectionists singing from prison on a cell phone while images of the January 6th riot played on a big screen behind him at his rally.

Can you believe that?  This is like something out of a fairy tale — a bad fairy tale.

Trump began his 2024 campaign by glorifying the failed violent insurrection at our Capitol.

The guy who claims law and order sows lawlessness and disorder.

Trump’s not concerned about your future, I promise you.  Trump is now promising a full-scale campaign of “revenge” and “retribution” — his words — for some years to come.  They were his words, not mine.  He went on to say he would be a dictator on day one.

I mean, if I were writing a book of fiction and I said an American president said that, and not in jest —

He called it, and I quote, the “termination of all the rules, regulation, and articles, even those found in the U.S. Constitution,” should be terminated, if it’s his will.

It’s really kind of hard to believe.  Even found in the Constitution, he could terminate?

He’s threatened the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff with the death penalty.  Says he should be put to death because the Chairman put his oath to the Constitution ahead of his personal loyalty to Trump.

This coming from a president who called — when he visited a cemetery, called dead soldiers “suckers” and “losers.”  Remember that?

It was right around the time I was at Beau’s grave.

How dare he?  Who in God’s name does he think he is?

With former aides, Trump plans to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to deploy — which he’s not allowed to do in ordinary circumstances — allow him to deploy U.S. military forces on the streets of America.  He said it.

He calls those who oppose him “vermin.”  He talks about the blood of Americans being poisoned, echoing the same exact language used in Nazi Germany.

He proudly posts on social media the words that best describe his 2024 campaign, quote, “revenge”; quote, “power”; and, quote, “dictatorship.”

There’s no confusion about who Trump is and what he intends to do.

I placed my hand on our family Bible, and I swore an oath on the very same steps of the Capitol just 14 days after the attack on January the 6th.

As I looked out over the capital city, whose streets were lined with National Guard to prevent another attack, I saw an American that had been pushed to the brink — an America that had been pushed to the brink.

But I felt enormous pride — not in winning.  I felt enormous pride in America because American democracy had been tested and American democracy had held together.  And when Trump had seen weakness in our democracy and continues to talk about it, I saw strength — your strength.  It’s not hyperbole.  Your strength.  Your integrity.  American strength and integrity.

Ordinary citizens, state election officials, the American judicial system had put the Constitution first and sometimes at their peril — at their peril.

Because of them, because of you, the will of the people prevailed, not the anger of the mob or the appetites of one man.

When the attack on January 6th happened, there was no doubt about the truth.  At the time, even Republican members of Congress and Fox News commentators publicly and privately condemned the attack.

As one Republican senator said, “Trump’s behavior was embarrassing and humiliating for the country.”  But now, that same senator and those same people have changed their tune.

As time has gone on, politics, fear, money, all have intervened.  And now these MAGA voices who know the truth about Trump on January 6th have abandoned the truth and abandoned democracy.

They made their choice.  Now the rest of us — Democrats, independents, mainstream Republicans — we have to make our choice.

I know mine.  And I believe I know America’s.

We will defend the truth, not give in to the Big Lie.  We’ll embrace the Constitution and the Declaration, not abandon it.  We’ll honor the sacred cause of democracy, not walk away from it.

Today, I make this sacred pledge to you.  The defense, protection, and preservation of American democracy will remain, as it has been, the central cause of my presidency.  (Applause.)

America, as we begin this election year, we must be clear: Democracy is on the ballot.  Your freedom is on the ballot.  (Applause.)

Yes, we’ll be voting on many issues: on the freedom to vote and have your vote counted, on the freedom of choice, the freedom to have a fair shot, the freedom from fear.  And we’ll debate and disagree.

Without democracy, no progress is possible.  Think about it.  The alternative to democracy is dictatorship — the rule of one, not the rule of “We the People.”

That’s what the soldiers of Valley Forge understood.  And so what we have to understand it as well.  We’ve been blessed so long with a strong, stable democracy.  It’s easy to forget why so many before us risked their lives and strengthened democracy, what our lives would be without it.

Democracy means having the freedom to speak your mind, to be who you are, to be who you want to be.  Democracy is about being able to bring about peaceful change.  Democracy — democracy is how we’ve opened the doors of opportunity wider and wider with each successive generation, notwith- — notwithstanding our mistakes.

But if democracy falls, we’ll lose that freedom.  We’ll lose the power of “We the People” to shape our destiny.  If you doubt me, look around the world.  Travel with me as I meet with other heads of state throughout the world.

Look at the authoritarian leaders and dictators Trump says he admires — he, out loud, says he admires.  I won’t go through them all.  It would take too long.

Look, remember how he refers to what he calls the “love letter” exchanges between he and the dictator of North Korea?  Those women and men out there in the audience who ever fought for the American military, would you ever believe you’d hear a president say something like that?

His admiration for Putin — I can go on.

And look at what these autocrats are doing to limit freedom in their countries.  They’re limiting freedom of speech, freedom of press, freedom to assemble, women’s rights, LGB[T]Q rights, people are going to jail, so much more.

It’s true: The push and pull of American history is not a fairy tale.  Every stride forward in America is met with a ferocious backlash, many times from those who fear progress and those who exploit that fear for their own personal gain; from those who traffic in lies told for power and profit; from those who are driven by grievance and grift, consumed by conspiracy and victimhood; from those who seek to bury history and ban books.

Did you ever think you’d be at a political event talking about book banning in a presidential election?

The choice and contest between those forces — those competing forces, between solidarity and division — is perennial.  But this time, it’s so different.

You can’t have a contest — you can’t have a contest if you see politics as an all-out war instead of a peaceful way to resolve our differences.  All-out war is what Trump wants.

That’s why he doesn’t understand the most fundamental truth about this country.  Unlike other nations on Earth, America is not built on ethnicity, religion, geography.  We’re the only nation in the history of the world built on an idea — not hyperbole — built on an idea: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men and women are created equal.”

It’s an idea declared in the Declaration, created in a way that we viewed everybody as equal and be — should be treated equally throughout their lives.

We’ve never fully lived up to that.  We have a long way to go.  But we’ve never walked away from the idea.  We’ve never walked away from it before.  But I promise you, I will not let Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans — (applause) — force us to walk away now.

We’re living in an era where a determined minority is doing everything in its power to try to destroy our democracy for their own agenda.  The American people know it, and they’re standing bravely in the breach.

Remember, after 2020, January 6th insurrection to undo the election in which more Americans had voted than any other in American history?  America saw the threat posed to the country, and they voted him out.  In 2022, historic midterm election, in state after state, election after election, the election deniers were defeated.

Now, in 2024, Trump in running as the “denier-in-chief” — the election denier-in-chief.  Once again, he’s saying he won’t honor the results of the election if he loses.

Trump says he doesn’t understand.  Well, he still doesn’t understand the basic truth, and that is you can’t love your country only when you win.  You can’t love your country only when you win.

So, I’ll keep my commitment to be president for all of America, whether you voted for me or not.  I’ve done it for the last three years, and I’ll continue to do it.

Together, we can keep proving that America is still a country that believes in decency, dignity, honesty, honor, truth.  We still believe that no one, not even the President, is above the law.  We still believe — (applause) — the vast majority of us still believe that everyone deserves a fair shot at making it.  We’re still a nation that gives hate no safe harbor.

I tell you from my experience working with leaders around the world — and I mean this sincerely, not a joke — that America is still viewed as the beacon of democracy for the world.

I can’t tell you how many — how many world leaders — and I know all of them, virtually all of them — grab my arm in private and say, “He can’t win.  Tell me.  No, my country will be at risk.”

We still believe in “We the People,” and that includes all of us, not some of us.

Let me close with this.  On that cold winter of 1777, George Washington and his American troops at Valley Forge waged a battle on behalf of a revolutionary idea that everyday people can govern themselves without a king or a dictator.

In fact, in the rotunda of the Capitol, there’s a giant painting of General George Washington — not President Washington — and he is resigning his commission as Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army.

A European king at this — at the time said, after he won the revolution, “Now is the time for him to declare his kingship.”

But instead, the mob that attacked the Capitol, waving Trump flags and Confederate flags, stormed right past that portrait.  That image of George Washington gave them no pause, but it should have.

The artist that painted that portrait memorialized that moment because he said it was, quote, “one of the highest moral lessons ever given to the world.”  End of quote.

George Washington was at the height of his power.  Having just defeated the most powerful empire on Earth, could have held onto the power as long as he wanted.  He could have made himself not a future president but a future monarch, in effect.

And, by the way, when he got elected president, he could have stayed for two, three, four, five terms, until he died.

But that wasn’t the America he and the American troops at Valley Forge had fought for.

In America, genuine leaders — democratic leaders, with a small “d” — don’t hold on to power relentlessly.  Our leaders return power to the people.  And they do it willingly, because that’s the deal.  You do your duty.  You serve your country.

And ours is a country worthy of service, as many Republican presidents and Democratic presidents have shown over the years.

We’re not perfect.  But at our best, we face head on the good, the bad, the truth of who we are.  We look in the mirror and ultimately never pretend we’re something we’re not.  That’s what great nations do.  And we’re a great nation.  We’re the greatest nation on the face of the Earth.  We really are.  (Applause.)

That’s the America I see in our future.  We get up.  We carry on.  We never bow.  We never bend.  We speak of possibilities, not carnage.  We’re not weighed down by grievances.  We don’t foster fear.  We don’t walk around as victims.

We take charge of our destiny.  We get our job done with the help of the people we find in America, who find their place in the changing world and dream and build a future that not only they but all people deserve a shot at.

We don’t believe — none of you believe America is failing.  We know America is winning.  That’s American patriotism.  (Applause.)

And it’s not winning because of Joe Biden.  It’s winning.

This is the first national election since January 6th insurrection placed a dagger at the throat of American democracy — since that moment.  We all know who Donald Trump is.  The question we have to answer is: Who are we?  That’s what’s at stake.  (Applause.)  Who are we?

In the year ahead, as you talk to your family and friends, cast your ballots, the power is in your hands.  After all we’ve been through in our history, from independence to Civil War to two world wars to a pandemic to insurrection, I refuse to believe that, in 2024, we Americans will choose to walk away from what’s made us the greatest nation in the history of the world: freedom, liberty.  (Applause.)

Democracy is still a sacred cause.  And there’s no country in the world better positioned to lead the world than America.

That’s why — (applause) — I’ve said it many times.  That’s why I’ve never been more optimistic about our future.  And I’ve been doing this a hell of a long time.  (Laughter.)

Just have to remember who we are — with patience and fortitude, with one heart.  We are the United States of America, for God’s sake.  (Applause.)

I mean it.  There is nothing — I believe with every fiber that there is nothing beyond our capacity if we act together and decently with one another.  Nothing, nothing, nothing.  (Applause.)  I mean it.

We’re the only nation in the world that’s come out of every crisis stronger than we went into that crisis.  That was true yesterday and it’s true today, and I guarantee you will be true tomorrow.

God bless you all.  And may God protect our troops.  (Applause.)

IRONIC BONUS

The thing to note about this tweet is that it was posted in 2018, when most conservatives were still “mature and civil.”

Have a great week.

 

Two Important Arguments For Your Weekend Consideration

The Case for Disqualifying Trump Is Strong, writes David French of the Fourteenth Amendment.

. . . [N]one of the legal analysis I’ve offered above relies on any sort of progressive or liberal constitutional analysis. It’s all text and history, the essence of originalism. In fact, the most influential law review article arguing that Trump is disqualified is by William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, two of the most respected conservative legal minds in the United States.

So no, it would not be a stretch for a conservative Supreme Court to apply Section 3 to Trump.

Bill Ackman’s by-now-famous essay on over-wokeism at Harvard — and at much of the rest of academia.

I first became concerned about Harvard when 34 Harvard student organizations, early on the morning of October 8th before Israel had taken any military actions in Gaza, came out publicly in support of Hamas, a globally recognized terrorist organization, holding Israel ‘solely responsible’ for Hamas’ barbaric and heinous acts.

How could this be? I wondered.

His conclusions are well worth pondering, whether or not you fully agree.

 

Comparing Trump And Jones

 

I meant to post this from the Los Angeles Times a year ago but it’s just as relevant today:

Retiring California lawmaker reflects on Jonestown and Trump

When Jackie Speier was a lawmaker in Sacramento, before mass shootings became a sad and sick part of everyday life, she helped push through the first state ban on military-style assault weapons.

During a scorching debate, an opponent challenged her, wondering whether she’d ever fired one of the weapons targeted for extinction.

Her response was swift and sharp: “No. But have you ever been shot by an assault weapon?”

She was at the Jonestown massacre in 1978 and on the floor of the House — literally — in 2021.

Jones, she noted, convinced hundreds of true believers “to follow him into the jungle of Guyana. Once there, they became somewhat enslaved by him, and in the end, they didn’t commit suicide. They were murdered.”

Trump, she said, “created this cult of personality that allowed him to then telegraph to his supporters to do things that were illegal, destructive, personally harmful.”

Speier was in the House chamber on Jan. 6, 2021, when it was overrun by violent, jacked-up Trump supporters seeking to overturn the 2020 election.

“I remember pressing my cheek to the floor and feeling how cold it was and this whole sense of resignation kind of came over me,” she said. “I thought, ‘This is it. I’m going to die here in what we think is this sanctuary of democracy’” after surviving Jonestown.

BONUS

Robert Reich’s 10 suggestions for 2024.

 

IT’S NOT CALESTHENICS II — BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

If you’d plunked down $9,125 for a share of Berkshire Hathaway in 1992 on Warren Buffett’s 62nd birthday and sold it 20 years later, you’d have hit a home run.  The stock was $126,183.

But had you held four more years, selling on his 86th birthday, you’d have been $100,000 better off.  (Four more years!  Four more years!)

Even then, selling when he was 86, you’d have left $322,498 on the table by not trusting his judgment.  On his 93rd birthday this year, the stock was $547,348.

For some jobs, wisdom and experience — and the team you’ve assembled beneath you — count more than vitality of gait.

Also worth noting, since this post is obviously not about Warren Buffett . . .

Joe has America finally beginning to revitalize itself with the massive bi-partisan infrastructure bill now beginning to roll out . . . the massive climate investment now just beginning to take hold . . . and the all-important CHIPs Act.

Most Republicans voted against all three (but will try to take credit for the projects in their districts anyway).

Meanwhile, the stock market, despite the drag of high interest rates, is at record highs.

Unemployment, despite the welcome “drag” of higher wages, is at record lows.

And we are producing more oil than any other country in the history of the world. 

That last one, while it would have Republicans cheering if they were willing to acknowledge it, needs context not to horrify those — like me — who see the climate crisis as urgent.

Here’s that context: until world demand for fossil fuels can be lowered by means of efficiency and met by means of renewables, someone needs to meet it . . . the profits from which will flow somewhere . . . enriching someone.  It doesn’t matter to the climate crisis whether it’s Iran or Russia or the U.S.  But as long as fossil fuels are needed, I’d rather it be us than them, not least so that we can use the tax revenue from those profits, and some of the profits themselves, to fund and expand the massive climate-change initiative Joe has launched.

Trump will of course tell us this is all fake news.  Climate change is not real.  Oil production has slowed to a trickle.  His Inaugural crowd was the largest in history.  He won reelection by a landslide.  Obama’s 5.1% unemployment rate was really 20% to 42%.  

The man has been lying and scamming all his life.

The examples are endless.

(Here’s yet another, set to go to trial later this month: “The lawsuit, filed in 2018, alleges Trump received millions of dollars in secret payments [promoting a since-failed maker of video phones, telling investors] “he had ‘experienced the opportunity’ and ‘done a lot of research,’ and that his endorsement was ‘not for any money.'” . . . “Not a word of this was true,” according to the plaintiffs.)

Trump is, according to one of his biggest Fox backers, “the undisputed world champion of destroying things.”

Biden, by contrast, has a team of 4,000 appointees, 1,200 of them Senate-confirmed, who have hit their stride.  They have restored dignity, civility, and competence; regained the respect of our allies; and set us on a course toward a brighter future.

I cede the balance of my time to Lindsey Graham (60 seconds).

Happy New Year!

 

The Fever Will Break. It Has To.

Republican Congressman Ken Buck on Face The Nation (54 seconds).  “They’re lying.”

2012 Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney (39 seconds).  “Are we going to abandon truth?”

Previously recommended: A Fever in the Heartland: The Ku Klux Klan’s Plot to Take Over America, and the Woman Who Stopped Them. 

Riveting.

Read (or listen at 1.25X speed).  I’m pretty sure you will find yourself wanting to share it with everyone you know.

It could not be more relevant today.

Wishing you a terrific weekend and a fever-breaking 2024.

 

The Alarm Clock Ad

Sixty seconds.

All it takes to save democracy — to answer that alarm — is courage.

Yet that’s easier said than done.

How many have had the courage to defy Putin?  Or Kim Jong Un?  Or any of the other dictators with whom Trump feels special kinship?

Thom Hartmann reports on how death threats keep Trump powerful.

Thanks for any help you may be able to pitch in.

SEPARATELY, AND VERY SAD TO SAY . . .

It’s time to “rusticate” Harvard’s president — as argued here in the Atlantic.