Author: A.T.

Guess Who’s Keeping The Border Open NOW

Trump is trying to kill the immigration deal so he alone can fix it.

‘Massive mistake’: Trump’s allies are turning against him for his latest blunder

Former President Donald Trump’s heavy lean on Senate Republicans to tank in-progress talks on a bipartisan package for foreign defense aid and border security, solely for the purpose of keeping the border issue hot for Republicans to campaign on, has started to trigger backlash from within their own party — and is even making some allies of the former president uncomfortable, said MSNBC’s Ryan Nobles on Friday . . .

Gumming up the works has what Trump may see as the added benefit: delaying aid to Ukraine.  If he’s one day prevented from doing business in New York, he might at least get to build that hotel in Moscow.

Bill O’Reilly supported Florida’s book ban law until it came for his books.

Which brings to mind:

Have a great week.

 

Take Heart!

We have every reason to be concerned for our democracy, and, with it, the world order — without which it’s hard to see our species coping very well with the climate crisis or any other.

But we’re going to win.

For one thing, we have to.

For another, at the end of the day, Democrats are not going to vote for Trump and neither are most independents or Romney-Cheney-Bush-Mitch-McConnell-Lindsey-Grahm Republicans.

Here’s 2 minutes that will give you a sense of what is possible.  Eric Willoughby is 17.

Another of my heroes, Zev Shapiro, is 21.  He ran his first successful campaign at the age of 8.  His drive to add a salad bar to the school cafeteria not only won, it was adopted city-wide.  He now runs TurnUp, a non-profit he started between classes that has registered hundreds of thousands of young people, many of whom care about issues like climate, guns, abortion, LGBT rights, civil rights, and democracy.  It’s non-partisan, so a tax-deductible 501c-3. Donate here.  (Or — if you do your charitable giving through a donor-advised fund, as recommended in a certain investment guide Amazon is currently selling for $8.79 — here.)

I connected the two of them, noting, when I did, that, combining their two ages, they were now fully half my own.  So they’d better get a move on and start accomplishing something.

(Speaking of age, Zev’s grandfather is the oldest professor still actively teaching at Harvard.  He’s 94.  And . . . here’s the part I love . . . he teaches not Icelandic poetry or Greek mythology or something.  He teaches astrophysics.)

Kevin Bacon, meanwhile, was 18 when I saw him on stage from the first row, about four feet away.  He probably doesn’t remember.  I do.  Now 65, he and his wife are PUMPED about November (2 minutes) and hope you will be, too. (Or 9 minutes to watch in full).

There’s a lot of energy out there, yours included.  I could go on and on but want to leave time for the bonuses:

BONUS

Larry David on Steve Martin (7 minutes).

BONUS

Bob Newhart and Don Rickles, “a love story” by Judd Apatow (20 minutes).

Have a great weekend!

 

Here’s The Selfless Part

Years ago, I urged you to buy Honest Tea because it was healthy, ethically sourced, tasted great, and I owned a teeny tiny piece.

You did; Coke bought it; and I made a teeny tiny killing.  (It took 12 years, but hey.)

That’s not the selfless part.

At the end of 2022, Coke discontinued it, surprising a lot of people.  Honest Tea’s founders seized the opportunity to launch the strikingly similar Just Ice Tea instead (justice tea, like honesty — get it?) . . . which I am again urging you to buy.

That’s not the selfless part, either.

(I own a teeny tiny piece.)

But consider:

You could buy a bottle of Just Ice Tea every day and love it.

It would set you back maybe $1,000 a year.

I’d be very grateful.

Not that you’d literally do that, in winter and in summer.  But for your whole household?  On average? Maybe your spouse likes it, too.  Maybe you live in Palm Beach.  Whatever: I’m just trying to paint a picture and keep the math simple.

Or . . . (and here’s the selfless part) . . .

You could buy just two bottles — and 7 boxes of Stash Licorice Spice tea bags.

You’d drink those two bottles, remove the labels, put two tea bags in each and fill with tap water.  (Cut off the tea bag strings first.  No need to cold brew those.)  Refrigerate.  Just keep brewing a new bottle each time you empty one so a spare is always ready.

No need to buy all 7 boxes of tea bags at once, of course.  Experiment with different brands and varieties, though I’m kind of crazy about the caffeine-free Stash Licorice Spice.  And experiment with THREE bags if you like your tea stronger (or just let the two sit longer).

But look what you’ve accomplished:

> You’ve spent $150 instead of $1,000, saving $850 tax-and-caffeine-free.

Invested at 6%-above-inflation, you’d have amassed an extra $72,000 in today’s dollars after 30 such years’ cold-brewing. 

But wait — there’s more!

> You‘ve saved the world’s having to make and label 365 glass bottles and metal bottle caps each year . . . saved the energy required to ship them to the bottler . . . saved having to pack the now-filled bottles in plastic-wrapped cardboard cases that someone else had to make and transport to the bottler . . . saved shipping those cases to the store . . . saved having to unpack the cases and stock the shelves . . . saved your having to carry them home.

All of which takes energy; much of it, from fossil fuel. 

But that’s not all!

> You’ve saved having to dispose of those 365 bottles (and 30 plastic-wrapped cardboard cases) someplace, somehow.  Times 20 million people, say = 7.5 billion bottles.

Each year.

And wait!

That’s right!

There’s still more!!!

> By not boiling water to brew the tea, you’ve saved that energy, too.

If I still wrote for PARADE, which claimed 80 million readers, which works out to just about every iced tea drinker in the world, I might not be so selfless.  But PARADE bit the dust just weeks after Honest Tea, as it happens.  And my current readership — while exceptional in quality — is itself teeny tiny.  So maybe I’m not being that selfless.  And you can still demand Just Ice Tea when you’re at a restaurant or health club, airport or movie theater.  If they don’t yet stock it, make a fuss.

With honesty and justice for all . . .

BONUS

Why Fani Willis, despite her great work, should step aside.

MORE-FUN BONUS

The Secret Life & Loves of Tab Hunter (48 minutes).  If you’re old enough to remember who he was.  Yes: life was really like that.  Young Love!  (Two minutes.)

 

Bryan Tyler Cohen

His first five minutes: the age thing.  Worth sharing widely.

(Faithful readers may recall from earlier this month how much they would have left on the table if they’d thanked Warren Buffett for his service at age 82 and sold their shares out of concern for his age.  Spoiler alert: a further quadruple.)

The Economist: 

What a second Trump term would mean for American business and the economy

. . . Businesses often say that what they fear most is uncertainty. With Mr. Trump that is guaranteed.

This unpredictability could make a second Trump term very much worse than the first. His administration would lack establishment types like Gary Cohn, once of Goldman Sachs, to shuffle the president’s in-tray and hide the madder ideas from him. More moments like January 6th are possible, as is a full-on revenge presidency. The idea that in this scenario business leaders could keep a low profile and focus on EBITDA is fanciful. Employees, customers and the press would demand to know where bosses stood and what they proposed to do. The administration might in turn take exception to every whiff of criticism.

In the long run, the idea that corporate profits can be insulated from societal upheaval is a fantasy. If Mr. Trump is broadly corrupting of American politics, and businesses are seen to profit from his rule, that poses a big risk to them in the future. In Latin America, when big businesses have become associated with autocrats the result was usually that capitalism was discredited and the appeal of socialism rose. That seems unthinkable in America. But so, until recently, did a second Trump term.

In case you can help, click here.

 

It’s The Economy, Stupid

From the Daily Edge:

MAGA voters cling to myths about the “Trump Economy.”

But the reality was quite different.

At the end of 2019—before Covid hit—Trump was leading the US economy toward collapse.

Here are 5 facts to prove it.

1. Trump said his tax cuts for the rich would “supercharge” the economy. But he created 15% fewer jobs in his first 3 years [pre-Covid] than Obama created in his final 3.

2. His first 3 years in office—pre-Covid—were devastating for factory workers.

3. 2019 was the worst year for U.S. farmers since the farm crisis of the 1980s.

4. By 2019, he was running trillion-dollar deficits, even as poverty soared in Red States.

5. The Trump recession started BEFORE Covid.

Read in full for the details.

(And then, of course, with Covid, it got much worse.  Just as Bush left Obama an economy on the brink of depression, so, too, did Trump leave Biden.)

BONUSES

If you like rock and roll, Little Richard pretty much originated it.  Among those who looked up to him: Elvis, the Beatles, and Mick, all featured in this toe-tapping doc.

If you’re gay, The New Life, set in 1890’s England, should be on your list.

If you like decency and civility in a president, read this account of how Joe Biden apologized to Asa Hutchinson, unbidden, over the weekend.

 

The Happy Gene Takes You Only So Far

But first the good news:

> As headlined in the Wall Street Journal:

Americans Are Suddenly Upbeat About Economy. Sentiment Just Logged Its Biggest Jump in Decades. University of Michigan gauge posts largest two-month gain since 1991.

> Unemployment is wonderfully low.

> Wage gains have begun outstripping inflation.

> Mortgage rates have started to fall.

> Gas prices that Putin sent soaring — while still higher than any driver would like — have dropped sharply.  Send this article to anyone who doesn’t realize how much Biden did to make that happen (among other things, we are now producing more oil than any nation in history) . . . but also to every environmentalist who faults him for that (because it will almost surely change their view).

> We’ve finally begun revitalizing our national infrastructure.

> “Made in America is back, leaving US factories scrambling to find workers.”

> And as you probably saw, stocks hit a record high yesterday.

And now, even so:

The Rising Tide Of Global Sadness — David Brooks on inequality.

Executive summary:

. . . The top 20 percent of the world is experiencing the highest level of happiness and well-being since Gallup began measuring these things. The bottom 20 percent is experiencing the worst. It’s a fundamentally unjust and unstable situation. The emotional health of the world is shattering.

He goes on to say . . .

Counties in the United States that saw the largest gain in voting Republican for president between the 2012 election and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 were also the counties where people rated their lives the worst.

Which is at once understandable and frightening: unhappy people are most likely to be angry and, thus, to vote for the angry candidate.  The one who says everything is rigged against you and that he alone can fix it.  Who plays to fear (“If Biden wins, you’re gonna have a stock market collapse the likes of which you’ve never had.“) and promises to get you “terrific health care at a tiny fraction of the cost” without ever revealing how (or ever really trying).

(Worth reading, if you have time: The Affordable Care Act Saved My Life. Donald Trump Wants To Destroy It, Again.)

It’s tragic, because the angriest candidate and his angry party are relentless in trying to advantage the top 1% while fighting the things that could stem “the rising tide of sadness” among everybody else.

Things like a higher minimum wage . . . $35 insulin . . . affordable health care . . . the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau . . . the Child Tax Credit.   

How unsurprising is this headline? Most kids losing Medicaid come from just nine states all led by Republicans.

People are right to be angry; but on most issues, they’re angry at the wrong team.

In case you can help keep things on track, click here.

Have a great weekend!

 

You Think It’s Rough NOW . . .

Former Republican Steve Schmidt worked to elect George W. Bush and, later, to defeat Barack Obama.  Wikipedia credits him with having helped get R0berts and Alito onto the Supreme Court. Should Trump Win, he writes, the story is just beginning.

NETFLIX

What a perfect weekend to watch Rustin — the man who made MLK’s March on Washington happen.  He had a dream, too.

CORRECTION

David P.:  “Last week you wrote << During the Biden presidency, incomes have outpaced inflation. >> That’s really misleading. 

→ David’s right.  I shouldn’t have taken that link at face value.  Drilling down, I now see it meant GROSS incomes — of the entire working population, which has expanded robustly and consistently for the past three years.  A very good thing — but quite different from the implication that AVERAGE incomes have outpaced inflation throughout his presidency.  I’ve amended that post, to say “lately” incomes have outpaced inflation . . . and linked instead to — Wages Are Finally Outpacing Inflation — which is worth reading.

UPDATE

After I suggested “my latest folly” Thursday, several of you asked whether, having run up from the 15 cents I paid to nearly 40 cents now, I thought RNGE was still worth buying.

I gave basically two answers.

The first was that — recognizing that stocks often fall back after a sharp run-up — one way to do this is to bet just 25% as much as you would have if it hadn’t run up.  If it never falls back, enjoy your gains on this small bet.  Otherwise, enjoy buying the rest of your position at a lower price.

The second answer was that maybe that’s “too smart by half” (or, in this case, 75%).  A friend who knows the company well says he has no clue where the stock will be in three years.  And, of course, that’s true: he doesn’t, and neither do I.  But, he told, me, when, recently, he had an opportunity to swap some options that give him the right to buy shares at $1.60 for something of more concrete value . . . he decided not to.  He thinks there’s a reasonable chance the stock will be higher than $1.60 three years from now.  Should that be the case, it won’t have much mattered whether you paid 25 cents or 50 cents for yours.

I just want to stress: ONLY with money you can truly afford to lose.