Far Worse Than The Job Numbers . . . August 2, 2025 . . . is how Trump reacted to them. Before he knew what Trump would say, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman concluded, sardonically: One thing is clear: The previously reported good numbers were proof of Trump’s brilliance. Now that they’ve been revised away, the bad numbers are clearly Biden’s fault, or maybe Jerome Powell’s, or Barack Obama’s. Or maybe Hunter’s laptop. But no, Trump did not blame the bad numbers on someone else — he simply denied that they were real. They were rigged against him, he said, just like the 2020 election or E. Jean Carroll’s phony rape allegation.* So he announced he would fire the 20-year veteran economist who oversaw them. Which is far worse than some bad job numbers, because it tells the global investment community they can no longer trust us. One more reason that U.S. stocks, as a group, may have a lot further to fall. Robert Reich: Trump destroys our source of information about jobs. This is beyond irresponsible. I spent much of the 1990s as Secretary of Labor. One unit of the Labor Department is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I was instructed by my predecessors as well as by the White House that one of my cardinal responsibilities was to guard the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Otherwise, this crown jewel of knowledge about jobs and the economy would be compromised. If politicized, it would no longer be trusted as a source of information. So what does Trump do? With one fell swoop on Friday he essentially destroyed the credibility of the BLS. It’s what dictators do. They issue decrees (he calls them “executive orders”); they cow the opposition. If you report bad news, they fire you. (But being a total sycophant, as noted yesterday, “can be a fantastic career move.”) Trump has already managed to weaken the dollar dramatically, making everything we import more expensive — even before adding on the tariffs that will hit consumers shortly. And now he is destroying the credibility of our numbers. Secretary Reich’s short letter is worth reading and — sharing — in full. BONUS Thanks to Glenn Sonnenberg for this wonderful 2006 quote from George W. Bush: America needs to conduct this debate on immigration in a reasoned and respectful tone. Feelings run deep on this issue and as we work it out, all of us need to keep some things in mind. We cannot build a unified country by inciting people to anger, or playing on anyone’s fears, or exploiting the issue of immigration for political gain. We must always remember that real lives will be affected by our debates and decisions, and that every human being has dignity and value no matter what their citizenship papers say. *If you listen at 1.3X speed, I think you’ll really enjoy Not My Type: One Woman vs. a President. Sure, almost everyone knows he raped and defamed her. But when you listen to the full account, as contrasted with his categorical denials, you will see at the most granular and definitive level what a liar he is.
Gambling + Gaza July 31, 2025August 1, 2025 Robert Reich: The Financial Bubble Will Soon Burst. This isn’t an investment letter and I’m not an investment advisor. But I want to warn you. The financial economy — stocks, bonds, and their derivatives — is in for a big reality check, and I think it will happen soon. The real economy is showing worrisome signs. . . . And remember: Trump’s big tariffs haven’t hit yet. They go into effect tomorrow. That will cause prices to rise and consumers to pull back. . . . Yet despite all this worrisome news, investors are going nuts buying up super-risky assets. The financial economy is immersed in the kind of wild gambling we saw leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. We’re seeing it all over again — this time with cryptocurrency tokens, meme stocks, junk bonds, shares of Meta and Microsoft, and the reemergence of blank-check entities . . . I’m not suggesting you cash in your stocks and bonds, but if I were you I wouldn’t follow the crowd into more risky investments. Again, I’m not an investment advisor, but there’s so much wild gambling going on right now that I fear we’re soon in for another financial crisis. OPRT I gambled $6,000 yesterday that I will probably lose to buy 400 calls on OPRT that expire August 15. Each gives me the right to buy 100 shares of OPRT at $7.50 . . . which is worth nothing unless the stock, currently $6.20 a share, climbs above $7.50 in the next two weeks. My idea? The company is scheduled to release second quarter earnings August 6. If OPRT is indeed on track to earn “in the range of $1.10 to $1.30” this year, as they have previously projected, then the quarterly numbers they release might confirm they’re on track to do so. At that point, might “the market” then bid the price up to, say, 10X the lower end of the projected earnings range? Which is to say, $11? The earnings they announce could of course be disappointing. Or could be fine but no one cares. Either way, I will lose $6,000. But in case the stock did jump to $11, each of my 400 15-cent calls ($150 each, because each is for 100 shares) would be worth $3.50 ($3,500), so $6,000 would magically have become $140,000. I totally don’t expect this to happen (though a run up to $8 would still yield a triple; to $9, a tentuple). But stranger things have happened. (Here are 40 of them.) To me, this is not “wild gambling” of the type Robert Reich decries but (I tell myself) well considered gambling. Emil Bove Is a Sign of the Times He has demonstrated that total sycophancy to the president can be a fantastic career move. A GLIMMER OF GAZA HOPE Arab States Call for Hamas to Disarm Amid Push for a Palestinian State I mean, it’s very brave of the surviving billionaire Hamas leadership, wherever they now are (certainly not in Gaza!), to fight to the bitter end, no matter the horrible toll. But if they really cared about their fellow Palestinians, they might have built a prosperous Gaza instead of a war machine after Israel vacated the strip in 2005; or at least have done what the Japanese eventually did after their surprise attack on Pearl Harbor: surrender. (And then build a wonderfully prosperous country.) Is it genocide? This Israeli genocide scholar, Omer Bartov — and many others — say yes. Yet it would seem to me: no. (War crimes? Crimes against humanity? All too likely so. And horrible enough without adding genocide to the indictment.) To me, genocide, like any other “-cide,” means deliberate killing for the purpose of extermination. That’s not what we did at Hiroshima or Nagasaki. I don’t think it applies to Gaza. That said, Bartov’s indictment — and the view so passionately expressed by the Patinkins that you’ve likely seen — should be considered by Jews everywhere, not least in the Knesset. To those rightly concerned by the spike in antisemitism generally, and on college campuses in particular, I commend my friend Matt Nosanchuk’s magnificently level-headed, compelling July 15 testimony before the House Committee on Education and Workforce. Shalom.
For All The Marbles July 30, 2025July 31, 2025 Democrats: It’s Do Or Die On Redistricting. This is for all the marbles, Rick Wilson argues, so worth the 7-minute watch. Which might lead you, as it led me, to read his print piece: The Redistricting Arms Race. For fun this weekend as you power walk, listen to E. Jean Carroll (at 1.3x speed) rea Not My Type: One Woman vs. a President, her memoir. Even more compelling, if less fun: Abundance, By Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson. Must reading, especially for Democrats — at least the first 56 pages up to the end of Chapter 1.
Of Sound Mind And Body July 30, 2025 BRAIN HQ New Study Shows How to Change Trajectory of Cognitive Decline Compared with some of the other BrainHQ studies I’ve pointed you to over the years, this one seems little more than confirmatory. But it’s a good reminder that, whether you’re Tom Brady or just the average Joe or Jill scared that you or a parent or loved one will develop Alzheimer’s or dementia . . . or afflicted with tinnitus or PTSD . . . or simply wanting to be sharper . . . 15 minutes a week with BrainHQ could have a dramatic positive effect on your future. And it’s free . . . or close to free if you want the whole package. And, yes, I own a tiny piece of it. NOOM I own none of Noom; I just use it. But having now gone from 159 to 153 in a month, I can tell you (again) it works. The first week isn’t particularly fun because (a) you have to get used to its features; (b) you’ll doubt it will work for you. But of course it will! If you burn more calories than you consume, you’ll will lose weight. Duh! And if you do it by eating right (and perhaps walking and/or exercising a little more), your health will improve. The trick is simply to think of it as another game on your phone. If you’re competitive, like me, you’ll make sure to “win.” Which becomes easier as the progress you see strengthens your resolve to continue. As with most new (good) habits, be it BrainHQ or Noom, the hardest part is starting. I need healthy, sharp readers. Get to work. DIS-DISINFORMATION How to fight lies. If you’ve been reading my DIS-disinformation rants, you may find this Ink interview on point. In his book How to Win an Information War, Peter Pomerantsev, a Ukrainian-born British author and academic and an expert on propaganda and information warfare — brings to life the remarkable story of a cunning World War II propagandist named Sefton Delmer. A British national raised in Germany, Delmer was the mastermind behind a series of enormously popular radio broadcasts that appeared to come from Nazis who had grown disenchanted with their party. But these broadcasters were no Nazis. They were only pretending in order to sow doubts about the Nazi party among German soldiers and citizens. As I’ve suggested, each of us could play a similar role, exposing Trump fans to information they don’t encounter on Fox News. Or you could just erect billboards that it would be hard for drivers not to see: New DNC Billboards Outside Shuttering Rural Hospitals Blame Closure on Trump’s Gutting of Health Care This is similar to what I’ve been proposing with regard to all those great infrastructure projects Republicans are taking credit for — after having voted against them.
The Fourth Commandment July 29, 2025 Keep your eye on Texas State Representative and pastor James Talarico. This 50-second clip on the 10 Commandments is a hoot. If it grabs you, take 4 more minutes to see how he handles a fellow Christian. Here’s a short TikTok he did that got 18 million views. Here’s 2 minutes on why he’s a Democrat. It comes from his two and a half hours on Joe Rogan — one of the things he describes here. SETH MYERS TAKES A CLOSER LOOK Trump Can’t Escape Epstein Questions in Scotland Nothing particularly new here; but aren’t we entitled to a little fun as the wars rage on, norms are shattered, and we — being, in the eyes of some, fundamentally a Christian nation — cut off aid to desperate people? Speaking of which . . . How to watch. . . the South Park episode everyone’s talking about.
Doin’ The Vatican Ra-a-ag July 28, 2025 RIP TOM LEHRER I never met Tom Lehrer, who graduated from Harvard at 18 and died Saturday at 97, but his songs have delighted me for 60 years and are available to anyone free, as his obit notes. I can’t sing The Elements (all 102 of them, back then), but I can sure sing The Vatican Rag. As for Wernher Von Braun, it doesn’t get more biting than this. If you’ve never heard of him, read this quick bio before listening to the song. RIP ZEUS I met Zeus when he was just weeks old. He barely came up to the top of my sneaker. What a touching love story. YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK We’re spending tens of millions so the president can golf. Far more distressing: the tens of billions we’re spending to rid the country of needed labor, shatter families that have been working hard and paying taxes for years, denying asylum claims, and becoming cruel. Even sadistic: Immigration agents told a teenage US citizen: ‘You’ve got no rights.’ He secretly recorded his brutal arrest. WHOM COULD THEY POSSIBLY BE TALKING ABOUT?
I’m Back July 27, 2025 CHRISTIAN? JEWISH? MUSLIM? HINDU? Bernie Sanders (20 seconds). DEPT. OF WASTE FRAUD AND ABUSE Donald Trump’s Scotland golf trip comes at incredible cost to U.S. taxpayers . . . Trump spent an estimated $151 million of taxpayer money golfing across his first term [and] is well on his way to blowing that total out of the water . . . . . . According to the website DidTrumpGolfToday.com, the president has played golf on 23.4% of the days thus far in his second term heading into his Scotland stay. . . . “He’s using the presidency to market his golf courses,” Richard Painter, the top ethics lawyer in George W. Bush’s second-term White House told HuffPost. (See also: Commander in Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump.) WHOM WE HONOR Renaming the USS Harvey Milk What is it about Harvey Milk that offends an administration that honors Confederate generals who sought to preserve slavery? KRUGMAN The Art of the Really Stupid Deal Overall, the interaction between the Japan deal and Trump’s other tariffs probably tilts the playing field between U.S. and Japanese producers of cars, and perhaps other products, in Japan’s favor. If this sounds incredibly stupid, that’s because it is. OVERHEARD “You may not be the dumbest guy in the world, but you’d better hope he doesn’t die.” May I suggest you share today’s first item — the Bernie Sanders clip — on Truth Social as part of your DIS-dis-information campaign? “Hey guys. How should I respond to this socialist crap?”
More DIS-dis . . . July 23, 2025 Attention MAGA Shoppers. You know all this, of course — that Trump’s tariffs are a tax on consumers. But what a perfect column to send as part of your hour-a-day DIS-dis-information campaign. (Have you started doing it? It’s fun! And so much more constructive than spending an hour lamenting the state of the world.) You just go onto some right-leaning website — Truth Social should do fine — with a handle like sky-dive-bro-23 or patriot2076 — and ask for advice. “Hey, all. Got this just now from my woke lib cousin. Any advice on how to respond?” Or send this graphic: Or send one of the damning 60-second clips you’ve been getting. The point is: by asking for their advice, you will get maybe 12 people — or 400 — to consider the content. Think of it as a Trojan Horse’s nose under the camel’s tent. (Sorry.) But you get my drift? When they respond, “Just tell the pervert to go f— himself” . . . you can respond, “Yeah, well, not sure that’s they education he needs. Can you point me to some links where I can actually debunk?” So now the people watching this thread have to think some more about it. And if they send you some links that are flat out wrong, thank them . . . but after an hour or two . . . “I sent that link, and he responded with THIS link! My head’s gonna explode. Help!” (“THIS link,” of course, being a link that debunks theirs.) And on it goes, as you, woke-is-broke696969, gradually begin to doubt Trump is the straight-talking hero so many believe him to be. Tell me this is not as much fun as Words With Friends or Spelling Bee! BONUS Prague’s Franz Kafka Airport.
Carville: Repeal The Steal! July 21, 2025 If you missed it: Repeal The Steal. Now Carville bolsters the case — and boils it down to just one word. Something on which the most and least liberal Democrats can unite around. NOOM As previously noted, this is not a stock symbol — though if it were, I’d be a buyer. It’s the “fitness” app I loaded onto my phone when I weighed 160 five weeks ago. I treat it like the other games I play on my phone. Only, this one requires a $10 digital scale (which works great) . . . logging in everything I eat (which I never thought I’d ever bother to do) . . . and logging my exercise (which is easy, because I don’t do as much as I should and it logs my “steps” automatically). The point is: I’ve made it a game, I like games, and I like to win. Guess who’s now 154 and headed lower. I tell you this not to brag, but because I want you to live forever, too. I need you. [Hint: the first few days, between getting used to the app’s navigation and not seeing any real progress, you may be tempted to quit. But once you get in the groove and see progress, it has to work — it’s just math. Calories in, calories out. Plus, it’s fun annoying people. Annoying is sort of my specialty. “Oh, that looks amazing,” I say as Tim serves us all the salmon he’s slaved over making. “How much does it weigh?” I may be taking this week off, so I’m scheduling some posts in advance. If a volcano erupts plunging the earth into darkness and I fail to blame it on Trump, or to comment in some other way, it’s because I was someplace without Internet access.
Your Nobel-Winning Primer For Just $6 July 20, 2025July 19, 2025 This column began as a postscript to yesterday’s Quick Primer On Stablecoins. IF YOU’RE SHORT ON TIME, SCROLL DOWN TO THE CHART AND THE QUESTION. Otherwise . . . Sixteen years after Bitcoin was created there are still no clear use cases for cryptocurrency that don’t involve illegal activity. Yet at the time of writing the value of crypto assets was approximately $3.3 trillion. . . . (Stablecoins, as suggested yesterday, could be the one exception.) The above quote comes from Part 5 of what Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman first planned to be a 2-part Primer on Rising Inequality. But inequality has widened so much since 1980 (thank you Ronald Reagan, Grover Norquist, Republicans ever since, with much resistance, though some help, from Democrats), he is currently up to Part 7. Inequality, Part VII: Crypto . . . I should close out with an in-the-moment case study: A discussion of the rise of the crypto industry, which can be seen as a sort of hyper-powered example of predatory finance, influence-buying and corruption. . . . I still sometimes see people conflating the case for cryptocurrencies with the general case for a digital monetary system. The truth, however, is that our monetary system is already largely digital. Your bank account consists of ones and zeroes on the bank’s server, not a pile of cash in the bank’s vault. Most people use physical currency, if at all, for a handful of small transactions. Even writing checks has become increasingly rare. Instead we use debit cards and payment apps, which are simply ways to transfer ownership of some of those ones and zeroes. In case anyone brings it up: Yes, there’s still $2.3 trillion in cash out there. But more than 80 percent of that is $100 bills, which are almost unusable in daily life, and are presumably being hoarded, largely outside the United States, rather than used in transactions. . . . Combined, his 7-part series forms a course in economics that should be of broad interest to those seeking to understand how we got here — a long-simmering rage leaving tens of millions susceptible to the false promises of a demagogue who pretends to be a victim of the elites, just like them — and seeking to understand how we might reverse the trend. (For starters: support the party that fights for a minimum wage, unionization, affordable health care, and effective taxation of the uber-wealthy.) Most of the series is behind a $6/month paywall. But you can cancel at any time, so the real cost of this course, if you choose to cancel, is $6. Herewith, a further preview: Understanding Inequality, Part I Between World War II and the 1970s income disparities in America were relatively narrow. Some people were rich and many were poor, but overall inequality among Americans in terms of wealth, income and status was low enough that the country had a sense of shared prosperity. Things are very different today, as American society is beset by extreme inequality, economic fragmentation and class warfare. What happened? The economic data show a huge widening of disparities in income and wealth starting around 1980, eventually undermining the relatively equal distribution of income we had from the 40s to the 70s. Moreover, growing disparities in income have led to growing disparities in political influence and the reemergence of what feels more and more like an oppressive class system. . . . Understanding Inequality, Part II: The Importance of Worker Power As I documented last week, not only have the top 1% in the income distribution pulled away from the remaining 99%, but within the top 1% the top 0.1%, the top 0.01% and the top 0.001% are pulling even further away. And this concentration of wealth at the top is corrupting our politics. Elon Musk’s claim that Trump would not have won in 2024 without him is quite plausible, while those currying favor with Trump by giving millions to his inaugural fund and buying his crypto-coins are clearly receiving favorable treatment. . . . In last week’s primer, I asserted that the most important reason for rising inequality since 1980 has been a shift in political and bargaining power against workers. While globalization and technological change have certainly been contributing factors, the numbers just don’t justify the claims that they are the primary reasons for rising inequality in America. Mostly it was about power. . . . Understanding Inequality, Part III: Tariffs Tariffs are regressive taxes that increase inequality. . . . Inequality, Part IV: Oligarchs This one leads off with a chart . . . Share of the top 0.01% in total wealth: . . . followed by a question: Who said this? << If there are men in this country big enough to own the government of the United States, they are going to own it; what we have to determine now is whether we are big enough, whether we are men enough, whether we are free enough, to take possession again of the government which is our own. >> No, it wasn’t Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It’s a quote from The New Freedom, Woodrow Wilson’s campaign platform in the 1912 presidential election. Inequality, Part V: Predatory Financialization How Wall Street increases disparities . . . Last week I cited the argument by Andrei Shleifer and Larry Summers that hostile takeovers “worked” largely through “breach of trust”: breaking implicit contracts with stakeholders in corporations, especially ordinary workers. Financialization was both a cause and a consequence of such breaches of trust. A deregulated financial industry provided the financial backing for hostile takeovers; the profits made in hostile takeover helped fuel the surge in financial profits and compensation. Ordinary workers suffered slashed benefits, layoffs and often outright terminations. At this point you might wonder how much trust is left to be breached. But the financial industry keeps finding new frontiers to exploit. In recent years health care has become a major focus of private equity investments, with private equity firms purchasing a number of hospitals. What they do next, according to a study published last year in the Journal of the American Medical Association, is sell off land and buildings, then charge the hospitals rent for use of facilities they previously owned. The result, the study claims, is a reduced quality of care for patients . . . Inequality, Part VI: Wealth and Power [T]he current level of inequality in America is much higher than what would be expected in a truly democratic polity, one in which all citizens had an equal voice. Clearly, the economic elite possesses political power greatly disproportionate to its share of the electorate. Some readers are no doubt saying “Well, duh — everyone knows that.” Indeed we do. Yet how, exactly, does this work? What mechanisms give the 1 percent and the 0.01 percent so much political power in the United States — especially compared with other countries? And why has their power increased in recent years? . . . There you have it. I have many friends at the top of the wealth pyramid. Most of them are wonderful people. Some are Republicans (though few Trump supporters). Most of them decry today’s extreme and dangerous inequality — and are generous in their philanthropy. So this isn’t about vilifying them; it’s about electing a Congress and President who will enact things like Social Security, child labor laws, the GI Bill, Medicare and Medicaid, “food stamps,” reasonable minimum wages, paid family leave, Pell Grants, Obamacare, the Infrastructure Act of 2021 and the CHIPS Act of 2022 — all Democratic of them initiatives, mostly or entirely opposed by Republicans. Join Indivisible. Support the opposition.