OPRT

Thursday’s earnings call left the market underwhelmed.  The stock barely budged.  And admittedly, there was a lot in the numbers to ponder.  But I continue to think the new CEO — barely three weeks on the job — may deliver a strong win.  If earnings hit $2 in the next year or three, and the stock sold at 15X earnings, shares would be trading at $30, not $5.75.  And since you bought yours only with money you can truly afford to lose . . . and at perhaps as little as half its current price . . . I’d suggest just sitting tight.

ARE YOU SOCIALLY LIBERAL BUT FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE?

Then, with the U.S. deficit projected to hit $2 trillion, double fiscal target and Republicans controlling all three branches of government, I would argue that you must be a Democrat.

It was Reagan, Bush 43, and Trump who’ve done the most to get us into this National Debt quicksand.

Mostly, they did it by overdoing tax cuts for those who needed them least.*

It was Bill Clinton who famously left his successor a surplus . . . Barack Obama who left his successor, Trump 1.0, a National Debt shrinking relative to the economy as a whole . . . and Biden who averted a Covid-induced financial collapse / global depression — averting even the widely predicted recession — and handing his successor a growing economy and inflation of just 2.7%.**

Two no-brainers for shrinking the deficit:

(1) Adequately fund the IRS to collect the taxes due.

(2) Close loopholes and raise rates modestly on billionaires and billionheirs — while making it clear every time the subject arises that, in the main, we celebrate their achievements and admire their success, wish them well, appreciate their numerous good works (truly) . . . and don’t blame them a bit for not paying more tax than the tax code requires.  It’s just that the tax code has gotten out of whack, and it’s tearing our country apart.

Join the Patriotic Millionaires if you are one (annual income $1M+ or new worth $5M+) . . . or support their proposals if you believe the playing field has been tilted a little too far in their favor.

THE LINE OF SUCCESSION

This is the kind of thing — Our Perilous Succession Process — that, because it’s not urgent (until it is), isn’t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.  But Norm Ornstein and Thurgood Marshall, Jr. make a compelling case that it should.  Catnip for the historians in the crowd.

* The Debt was 30% of GDP at the beginning of the Depression, 41% at the beginning of World War II, 122% in 1946, at the end of the war . . . and then fell gradually back to 30% by 1981 when Reagan began cutting taxes for the rich.  Sensibly, at first, but then by too much.  Made worse by Bush 43 and now Trump.

**In hindsight it’s pretty clear that Biden overdid the Covid stimulus; but underdoing it, I believe, would have been far worse.