Playing To The Center August 14, 2021August 16, 2021 MARY TRUMP ON REPUBLICANS “[They] haven’t lost their way. They have, instead, found it. And it has led them straight toward unabashed white supremacy and fascism.” From her cover story in The New Republic. So how do we decrease the polarization? Make space for candidates who appeal to the moderate middle? The sensible center? Candidates who are willing to cooperate? Seek common ground? Compromise? PARTY PRIMARIES MUST GO Part of the answer is to end gerrymandering, as hard-fought ballot initiatives like Florida’s Fair Districts initiative have largely done. If districts are not safely red or blue, candidates who appeal to the middle will have a chance to beat those who appeal only to the right or left fringe. Part of the answer is to make primary voting easier — so you simply have to drop your ballot in the mail. When it’s hard to vote, only the most committed on both sides — who are often the most extreme — take the trouble. Part of the answer is ranked-choice voting (also called Instant Runoff Voting), forcing candidates to appeal to a broader group and an incentive not to run negative ads. (Say you were running for office in a ranked-choice election. Knowing that each of your rivals has some strong fans, and hoping to be those fans’ second choice, would you be more or less likely to smear them?) And part of the answer is “open primaries,” as importantly described here. Also known as “final four” voting. (And, yes, you could still have an R or a D by your name, so someone who wanted their party to retain the gavels could be sure her or his vote was going to a candidate of their favored party.) As you probably know, Ambassador James Hormel has died. A lovelier man, more generous of spirit, I have never known. Every day is precious. Have a great weekend.
Choice August 12, 2021August 11, 2021 PRKR Up a little yesterday, perhaps on news that — in an entirely unrelated case — Intel failed to overturn a $2.18 billion patent infringement verdict (that they will now appeal). The connection is that PRKR’s suit against Intel is being tried before the same judge this coming February. (PRKR’s main suit is against Qualcomm. That one, in Florida, may begin later this year.) And so we wait. And wait. Like Bulgarian newlyweds in Casablanca. REPUBLICANS GO PRO-CHOICE When it comes to the right to spread a sometimes-fatal disease . . . and the right to keep the virus alive long enough for it to mutate into something that could be even worse . . . Trumpers are loudly “my body, my choice!” Not so a woman’s right to control her own body. (Herewith Barney Frank’s just-posted thoughts on guns and abortion.) THE REPUBLICAN WAR ON CITIES Turns out, this is a global theme that goes back centuries.
Infrastructure! August 11, 2021August 10, 2021 But first . . . LOCK HER UP? Don’t you mean “him?” Seven minutes. (So why isn’t Trump being prosecuted? “The real answer,” writes Andrew Reinbach, “is a bad one: It’s how we do things in this country. Jefferson Davis was held for two years but never tried for treason. Lee was indicted, but never tried. No one involved in the Business Plot was indicted, though the House Unamerican Activities Committee found they were ready, willing, and able — they just never pulled the trigger. Nixon was allowed to resign, then pardoned. Trump pulled this in hopes of avoiding the pending criminal cases in New York. But, alas, he’ll probably not be indicted for 1/6. He may, however, be convicted in New York. That’ll do.”) TRUMP’S “$102 MILLION” NOT QUITE REAL? What a surprise: there’s some exaggerating going on. Interesting and encouraging. And now . . . INFRASTRUCTURE! Not enough, and not yet signed into law, but a big step forward that even 19 Republican senators agreed to. You know all those folks who are being put out of work because of automation? It’s good that they are, because we’re going to need them to do something more important than taking fast food orders: revitalizing our infrastructure. And it’s not just physical infrastructure we can hope will be signed into law: The Hard Case for Soft Investment.
Of Schools And Bone Saws August 10, 2021August 9, 2021 Handing the mike to Mike: Opening Schools Should Be Priority No. 1 By Michael R. Bloomberg August 9, 2021 (Bloomberg Opinion) — Over the long course of the Covid-19 pandemic, one comforting fact has been that children have been at very little risk from the virus. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean they haven’t suffered. In fact, research on pandemic-related school closings suggests that the harm imposed on kids could last a lifetime. A recent report from McKinsey & Co., which analyzed data for 1.6 million elementary-school kids in the U.S., found that on average they were five months behind in math and four months behind in reading. Hardest hit were kids from low-income districts, as well as predominantly Black and Hispanic ones. The authors warn that this “unfinished learning” could impede future academic progress and depress wages “far into adulthood.” They also found rising rates of anxiety and depression. Most parents won’t be surprised by those findings. They’ve watched their kids struggle to learn online, or become increasingly isolated without the vital social interactions in-person schooling provides. For many, remote learning has been a slow-motion disaster. Getting kids back in the classroom must be a society-wide priority. We must turn the page on the last school year, when too many unions obstructed or slowed down school reopenings. America’s children cannot afford a repeat of that harmful episode, and it’s essential that teachers help lead the way. The good news is that the vast majority of teachers are vaccinated, according to the National Education Association and the White House. Few other industries can boast of such high numbers. Teachers were given priority for vaccinations in many areas, and most had the good sense — and sense of professional responsibility — to get the shots. The country would be in much better shape if more of their former pupils followed their examples. Some states are now considering vaccination mandates for teachers, which would help push the rate up near 100% — an outcome that would be good for both teachers and students. American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten says her union, which had opposed vaccine mandates, now supports them, a welcome change that Weingarten deserves credit for. At the same time, the AFT is right to oppose efforts by state legislatures to prohibit localities from requiring that masks be worn in schools. Attempting to block schools from taking safety precautions is outrageous — politics at its most reckless — and could well result in deaths. With the CDC recommending mask wearing for indoor spaces where transmission rates are high, local jurisdictions should have the ability to remain flexible about requiring masks in certain situations. They’ll also have plenty of money for mitigation measures — such as improving ventilation systems or establishing testing programs — given that most states still haven’t fully spent the school-relief funds Congress has lavished on them the past two years. We are heading into a new school year with vaccines that have proven incredibly effective against severe sickness and death, with a teacher vaccination rate approaching 100%, and with the knowledge — based on data from study after study — that transmission in the classroom is rare, a point the CDC has also emphasized. In other words: The time for excuses is over. After saying two weeks ago that the union would “try to open up schools,” Weingarten seemed to realize she misspoke — because trying isn’t good enough. Last week, she said she was “1,000% committed to getting teachers and kids back in school.” That’s good, and now we need union leaders to follow through on it. Given the appalling damage remote learning has inflicted on American children, a clear message needs to echo from the White House to the Department of Education all the way down to the district level: Open the schools, five days a week, no exceptions. I’ve previously recommended “The Dissident,” which at the time cost $25 to watch. Now free. So powerful. (And wait til you see how the Saudis used Israeli spyware to control Jeff Bezos’s phone.)
Righting The Rules Of The Game August 9, 2021August 9, 2021 Over the weekend, I came up with a new rule for Monopoly: Each game starts where the last left off. If your opponent had all the money and all the hotels at the end of the last game, he or she starts with all the money and all the hotels at the start of the next game. That, in a nutshell, is how opponents of the estate tax think a civilized society should be organized. Others of us — while not favoring the Monopoly model, where all your property gets thrown back into the pot — think a middle ground makes sense: Lots of incentive to get rich, lots of incentive to give to charity, lots of room to give your kids and grandkids a giant leg up as a reward for your efforts . . . but, along with all that, a chunk of your wealth when you die. None of your first $10 million, say . . . but then perhaps half? And three-quarters above $1 billion? Currently, loopholes allow the rich to avoid estate taxes. Should the rules of the game be righted? No one likes paying taxes; but to me it seems the least painful time to pay them is after you’re dead. One reason this should be on our minds is the need to pay for at least some* of the infrastructure revitalization now being debated. Which, it should be noted — though large — may not be large enough. (See, from MIT: The $1 trillion infrastructure bill is a baby step toward the US grid we need.) Have a great week! *It’s okay to borrow to fund projects that will last 50 or 100 years, just as it’s okay to borrow to buy a house; but down payments are a good idea, too.
3M August 6, 2021August 5, 2021 Not that any of these three has anything to do with the others — or 3M. But how many more stories can you read about Cuomo or Covid? Resign! Get vaccinated! And so: METHANE You though moon wobble was bad. Get a loada this. MILITIAS From the New York Review — How Can We Neutralize the Militias? MEDIA Remember Amanda Knox? Falsely accused, wrongly convicted and imprisoned? Not quite like serving decades of hard time — or being executed — for a crime you did not commit. But a compelling story of injustice and media exploitation. Have a great weekend. Have you had a watermelon yet this summer?
Democracy Dies In Darkness — And Hungary August 5, 2021August 5, 2021 Why is Tucker Carlson broadcasting from Hungary? Because he admires their dictator. An important read, because so many Americans listen to him. Moon Wobble could begin working in our favor pretty soon — it’s an 18.6-year cycle — but then against us in the 2030’s. Nothing dramatic — but when it comes to rising sea levels, every little bit hurts. BONUS How Does the U.S. Power Grid Work?
But First . . . August 4, 2021August 3, 2021 If you have a dog, share this with him or her. Ninety seconds. If you don’t have a dog, you may no longer be able to resist. Less fun if more important: Paul Krugman last month in the indispensable New York Times: The Deadly Triumph of the Paranoid Style. He begins with a scene from “Dr. Strangelove” — worth reading for that alone! — and concludes . . . . . . One of our major political parties has, quite simply, gone mad. This madness will kill thousands of Americans in the next few months, because politics is by far the best predictor of who is still refusing to get vaccinated. But Covid deaths may be only the beginning of the deadly effects of the triumph of the paranoid style. BONUS Did you catch Joe Manchin on Face the Nation Sunday? I thought he acquitted himself well. There may be hope yet. Fingers tightly crossed.
Swimming To Israel On EVLO Cap Gains For Norman Lear’s Birthday August 3, 2021August 2, 2021 HAPPY BIRTHDAY, NORMAN! Norman Lear’s message as he begins his 100th year. Powerful. SWIM! Next to BrainHQ (he blushes with self-interest), swimming, it seems, may be about the best thing you can do for your brain — and your kids’ brains, too. (Speaking of BrainHQ, here’s yet another data point confirming its value: “The Defense Department-funded study compared the program against a control group, whose members played commercial computer games. The BrainHQ group saw four times the improvement of the control group, which increased to five times when members were tested again 12 weeks after ending the program.”) ISRAEL’S COALITION Bret Stephens in the New York Times several weeks ago: Israel’s new government must be a puzzle for anyone who thinks of the Jewish state as a racist, fascistic, apartheid enterprise. Issawi Frej is Arab and Muslim and used to work for the Peace Now movement. Now he’s Israel’s minister for regional cooperation. Pnina Tamano-Shata is Black: The Mossad rescued her, along with thousands of other Ethiopian Jews, from hunger and persecution when she was a small child. She’s the minister for immigration and absorption. Nitzan Horowitz is the first openly gay man to lead an Israeli political party. He’s the health minister. At least one deputy minister, as yet unnamed, is expected to be a member of the Raam party, which is an outgrowth of the major Islamist political group in Israel. As for Benjamin Netanyahu, “King Bibi” has finally left office — churlishly, bitterly, pompously — but in keeping with the normal democratic process. He faces criminal indictments in multiple cases. His immediate predecessor as prime minister, Ehud Olmert, spent 16 months in prison on corruption charges. It’s some fascist state that subjects its leaders to the rule of law and the verdicts of a court. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, “postponed” elections in April. He’s in the 17th year of his elected four-year term of office. . . . Read the rest? CAPITAL GAINS Thanks to those who sent How a Landlord Making $75,000 a Year Could End Up in the Millionaire Tax Bracket. (Executive summary: He could end up there if he gets a once-in-a-lifetime $2 million gain from selling his building.) Not hard to solve! The proposed law — clearly not designed for someone like Mr. Settle — should be tweaked to allow multi-year averaging, so little or none of his gain would be taxed at the higher rate. As I’ve written before, I have very mixed feelings about hiking the cap gains rate much on anyone, because all people have to do to avoid it is . . . not sell. That’s quite different from, say, toughening the estate tax, where all people have to do to avoid it is . . . not die. EVLO PUTS Guy: “I see in their recent report that the data we’ve been expecting is now expected in ‘Q3.’ My experience in biotech leads me to believe this means late September or more likely it slips into Q4. I’m thinking of selling the puts for a double.” –> I think that’s smart. It’s possible the stock will slide further as the August 20th expiration approaches (EVLO shareholders may worry the company would not have delayed the announcement if the results had been GOOD . . . and so use this opportunity to reduce their positions). That could send the price down and our puts up. But it’s also quite possible the options expire worthless, even if Guru proves right and the results, when ultimately released, disappoint. So you’d want to own the November expiration instead. Except, at least yesterday, they were awfully expensive. Still, if all the speculations that didn’t work out as hoped ended in a double, it would be hard to complain.
FindCenter: The Challenges Of Being Human August 2, 2021August 25, 2021 But first . . . Is rational thinking useful — or allowed — when it comes to the pandemic? Some will say no; some will say yes; some will say it’s already been applied. For your consideration: The Bizarre Refusal to Apply Cost-Benefit Analysis to COVID Debates. And now . . . Lonely? Angry? Grieving? Anxious? On a journey of self-discovery? Neal Goldman: “Today I am turning 51, and humbly announce the birth of FindCenter. Leading up to my 50th birthday I sought to figure out how might I contribute to alleviating some of the profound suffering I see in the world. Not being a doctor, humanitarian or public figure, I focused on harnessing the technology-building skills I acquired over my 25 years as an entrepreneur. In my own life, I had a very hard time trying to figure out how to deal with difficult life events and complicated emotions. FindCenter is meant to streamline that process, and in doing so help make others’ journeys a little easier. It’s a place where anyone can find resources to navigate the challenges of being human.” → Proving yet again that money can’t buy happiness. Though it’s been known to help. Happy Birthday, Neal!