Year: 2018

And here you thought our biggest threat was Trump.

Or Putin’s strange hold over him.

Or Putin’s efforts to defeat democracy.

Or Putin’s emerging arsenal of hypersonic weapons.

Nope.

If you haven’t already seen it, Henry Kissinger suggests a larger worry: how unprepared humanity is for artificial intelligence, a challenge that may be nearer than we think.  From The Atlantic, in small part:

. . . On its own, in just a few hours of self-play, [AlphaZero] achieved a level of skill that took human beings 1,500 years to attain. Only the basic rules of the game were provided to AlphaZero. Neither human beings nor human-generated data were part of its process of self-learning. If AlphaZero was able to achieve this mastery so rapidly, where will AI be in five years? What will be the impact on human cognition generally? What is the role of ethics in this process, which consists in essence of the acceleration of choices? . . .

. . . The Enlightenment started with essentially philosophical insights spread by a new technology [printing]. Our period is moving in the opposite direction. It has generated a potentially dominating technology in search of a guiding philosophy. Other countries have made AI a major national project. The United States has not yet, as a nation, systematically explored its full scope, studied its implications, or begun the process of ultimate learning. This should be given a high national priority, above all, from the point of view of relating AI to humanistic traditions.

AI developers, as inexperienced in politics and philosophy as I am in technology, should ask themselves some of the questions I have raised here in order to build answers into their engineering efforts. The U.S. government should consider a presidential commission of eminent thinkers to help develop a national vision. This much is certain: If we do not start this effort soon, before long we shall discover that we started too late.

Dr. Kissinger turns 95 Sunday but, more than most, is thinking ahead.

It’s reunion time for a lot of us — my college reunion and elementary school reunion dovetail.  Like when Chanukah and Christmas fall on the same day or Halley’s comet marks both Mark Twain’s birth and death.

The point is, if you want a really good story that you haven’t read elsewhere, and to imagine what it might have been like to spend a little time with Stephen Hawking, click here.

Have a great weekend.  Summer’s in the air!

I once wrote a book under the pseudonym of the Lone Ranger — John Reid — and, let’s face it: a lot of time has passed.  Even David Letterman is now long off the air, let alone Reid’s cry of Hi, Yo, Silver!

But if you’re in the mood for a five-minute story, with the Lone Ranger in the back of a Volvo, here it is.  (Thanks, Mel!)

On an entirely different — tragi-serious — note, read how selfish rich people (I would argue), and their minions, killed off ACORN, which worked to help the poor and powerless.

In small part:

. . . ACORN advocated for the poor. In addition to helping families navigate federal aid programs, the group ran campaigns to improve city sanitation, protested against predatory lenders and registered people to vote. The nation’s top Republican politician had just declared this body of work tantamount to stealing an election. . . .

. . . Nobody could find a single fraudulent vote that had been cast by someone connected to ACORN. But the ACORN story kept bouncing around conservative media anyway. Prosecutors in a few states cited a handful of ACORN employees for shoddy voter registration ― submitting incomplete forms or paperwork with bogus names like “Donald Duck.” In many cases, ACORN itself had flagged the faulty documents before turning them over to state officials, since election laws required that all registration paperwork an organization had collected be turned in. This detail often wasn’t included in the stories. . . .

There’s lots more, some of it critical of Democrats for panicking and caving too quickly.  Read the whole thing?

If the Lone Ranger were around today, he’d have a lot of bad guys to ride out of town.  What the hell is he doing in the back of a Volvo?

The Republican Party used to offer us competent, accomplished vice presidents like Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush.

Lately?  Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney, Sarah Palin, and, now — “Trump Is No Longer The Worst Person In Government” — Mike Pence.  (Thanks, Glenn!)

. . . Noting that Arpaio was in his Tempe audience, Pence, oozing unctuousness from every pore, called Arpaio “another favorite,” professed himself “honored” by Arpaio’s presence, and praised him as “a tireless champion of . . . the rule of law.” Arpaio, a grandstanding, camera-chasing bully and darling of the thuggish right, is also a criminal, convicted of contempt of court for ignoring a federal judge’s order to desist from certain illegal law enforcement practices. . . .

So much more here.  Not enough to persuade me Trump’s no longer worst.  That is a bar too high.  But read it all and decide for yourself?

And here’s what he says:

Our nation is indeed at a crossroads. Will we pursue the search for truth or will we dodge, weave and evade the truth? I am of course referring to the investigation into serious allegations of illegal conduct by the president of the United States — that the president has engaged in a persistent pattern and practice of obstruction of justice. The allegations are grave, the investigation is legitimate and ascertaining the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the unqualified, unevasive truth is absolutely critical.”

McConnell said that in 1998, on the Senate floor, regarding Kenneth Starr’s four-year, $30 million investigation of President Clinton.

Sarah Longwell writes in the Washington Post that “It’s worth listening to this address in its entirety because it is a love letter of sorts — to the rule of law . . .“

It’s worth reading Ms. Longwell’s op-ed in its entirety, because — a Republican — she makes such a clear and compelling case.

The only thing she fails to note?  That nothing Kenneth Starr investigated was of major national import. Clinton’s potential transgressions — whether they involved the $30,000 real estate deal that began the Starr investigation or lying about the inappropriate sexual affair that ended it — pale beside Putin’s ongoing attack here and abroad, in which Trump is at least, by his lack of interest (heck, it could have been some 400-pound guy on a couch), complicit.

I can say so many things in Greek!  Or at least, as our Acropolis guide put it (on a different topic), “Much more less than before.”

Greece is great, the people are awesome, and if you’re able to come in May, before it gets really hot and crowded, you are lucky dogs indeed.

So far, only two complaints: (1) the word for yes is “nai.”  Really?  Come on, Greece!  No! Ne! Nem! Non! Nein! Nyet!  It should be the word for nnnnnno — no?  (2) There are four different letters for “i.”  This is confusing and a waste of resources. Oi!  (Or, as we are here right now, Oia!)

I brought Alexa.  My little Echo Dot.  It was much more less hard to link to the wifi in each hotel than I feared, and I’ve been able to listen to the latest Rachel Maddow or Meet The Press at will, sans interruption.  Or ask Alexa the distance from Santorini or Mykonos or anything else.  From now on, she’s permanently in my travel bag.  (For real life, I love the Echo Show, if only because I now can “hear” the lyrics of any song — they crawl up the screen.  And also so handy for spelling — admit it: you’re never quite sure how to spell Madeleine Albright.  So many possibilities. But say her name and up it comes, along with a thumbnail bio.)

So now let’s talk about Iran.  Here are the facts, as misunderstood, or else willfully misstated, by Trump.  Five things he got wrong.

And here, as one correspondent puts it, “an actual President of the United States” on the pull-out.  Barack Obama:

There are few issues more important to the security of the United States than the potential spread of nuclear weapons, or the potential for even more destructive war in the Middle East. That’s why the United States negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the first place.

The reality is clear. The JCPOA is working – that is a view shared by our European allies, independent experts, and the current U.S. Secretary of Defense. The JCPOA is in America’s interest – it has significantly rolled back Iran’s nuclear program. And the JCPOA is a model for what diplomacy can accomplish – its inspections and verification regime is precisely what the United States should be working to put in place with North Korea. Indeed, at a time when we are all rooting for diplomacy with North Korea to succeed, walking away from the JCPOA risks losing a deal that accomplishes – with Iran – the very outcome that we are pursuing with the North Koreans.

That is why today’s announcement is so misguided. Walking away from the JCPOA turns our back on America’s closest allies, and an agreement that our country’s leading diplomats, scientists, and intelligence professionals negotiated. In a democracy, there will always be changes in policies and priorities from one Administration to the next. But the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America’s credibility, and puts us at odds with the world’s major powers.

Debates in our country should be informed by facts, especially debates that have proven to be divisive. So it’s important to review several facts about the JCPOA.

First, the JCPOA was not just an agreement between my Administration and the Iranian government. After years of building an international coalition that could impose crippling sanctions on Iran, we reached the JCPOA together with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the European Union, Russia, China, and Iran. It is a multilateral arms control deal, unanimously endorsed by a United Nations Security Council Resolution.

Second, the JCPOA has worked in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program. For decades, Iran had steadily advanced its nuclear program, approaching the point where they could rapidly produce enough fissile material to build a bomb. The JCPOA put a lid on that breakout capacity. Since the JCPOA was implemented, Iran has destroyed the core of a reactor that could have produced weapons-grade plutonium; removed two-thirds of its centrifuges (over 13,000) and placed them under international monitoring; and eliminated 97 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium – the raw materials necessary for a bomb. So by any measure, the JCPOA has imposed strict limitations on Iran’s nuclear program and achieved real results.

Third, the JCPOA does not rely on trust – it is rooted in the most far-reaching inspections and verification regime ever negotiated in an arms control deal. Iran’s nuclear facilities are strictly monitored. International monitors also have access to Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain, so that we can catch them if they cheat. Without the JCPOA, this monitoring and inspections regime would go away.

Fourth, Iran is complying with the JCPOA. That was not simply the view of my Administration. The United States intelligence community has continued to find that Iran is meeting its responsibilities under the deal, and has reported as much to Congress. So have our closest allies, and the international agency responsible for verifying Iranian compliance – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Fifth, the JCPOA does not expire. The prohibition on Iran ever obtaining a nuclear weapon is permanent. Some of the most important and intrusive inspections codified by the JCPOA are permanent. Even as some of the provisions in the JCPOA do become less strict with time, this won’t happen until ten, fifteen, twenty, or twenty-five years into the deal, so there is little reason to put those restrictions at risk today.

Finally, the JCPOA was never intended to solve all of our problems with Iran. We were clear-eyed that Iran engages in destabilizing behavior – including support for terrorism, and threats toward Israel and its neighbors. But that’s precisely why it was so important that we prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Every aspect of Iranian behavior that is troubling is far more dangerous if their nuclear program is unconstrained. Our ability to confront Iran’s destabilizing behavior – and to sustain a unity of purpose with our allies – is strengthened with the JCPOA, and weakened without it.

Because of these facts, I believe that the decision to put the JCPOA at risk without any Iranian violation of the deal is a serious mistake. Without the JCPOA, the United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East. We all know the dangers of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. It could embolden an already dangerous regime; threaten our friends with destruction; pose unacceptable dangers to America’s own security; and trigger an arms race in the world’s most dangerous region. If the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program under the JCPOA are lost, we could be hastening the day when we are faced with the choice between living with that threat, or going to war to prevent it.

In a dangerous world, America must be able to rely in part on strong, principled diplomacy to secure our country. We have been safer in the years since we achieved the JCPOA, thanks in part to the work of our diplomats, many members of Congress, and our allies. Going forward, I hope that Americans continue to speak out in support of the kind of strong, principled, fact-based, and unifying leadership that can best secure our country and uphold our responsibilities around the globe.

Wrong to pull out of the Paris Climate Accords, wrong to pull out of the TransPacific Partnership, wrong to pull out of the JCPOA.

America is diminished by these mistakes.  On climate, fortunately, many states and corporations are ignoring Trump and striving to meet the Paris goals anyway.  On the TPP, hopefully, there seems to be some talk about our joining it after all.  And on Iran — well, we’ll see.  Iran itself seems to be saying it may not kick out the inspectors and restart its nuclear program just because one of the several signatories to the deal has pulled out.  Let’s hope they retain that posture until our country returns to its senses.

Already, with a title like that, I have people angry.  Of course the truth matters but why do you think YOU know the truth and we don’t?

Or so I imagine the very large, very red-faced man to my right at the Acropolis would have responded, had we talked.

I hadn’t noticed him at first.

He was taking a photo of his family.

I was taking a photo of two Korean women and a man who had handed me their iPhone.

As I do with almost all foreigners, I apologized for Trump.  “I’m sorry!” I wailed (and of course it’s true: I am).  They laughed and I got a good picture.  But the very large, very red-faced man to my right said — off into the distance, not at me or anyone in particular, but wanting to be heard — “He’s amazing, actually.”

The Koreans and I, and my friends, turned to look who had said it.

“Hurray for America!” I said loudly to all, with a smile, as in — Well, see?  We Americans can disagree, yet all love our country.

That was all there was to it . . . but it was “a moment.”

As my friends and I walked back downhill (having learned a lot about the Acropolis), we imagined that if we had engaged the very large, very red-faced man and his family in conversation, it would have been lively.

Does it not bother him that the President constantly lies?  Does he believe lying is okay?  Does he want his kids to think so?  Does it not bother him the President treats women as he does?  Is a bully?  A braggart?  Stiffs his creditors?  Condones torture?

I imagine he would dismiss all that as fake news.

Yet aren’t some things indisputably true?  Even if people have disputed them?

The earth is round, not flat.  Smoking causes cancer.  There ARE no witches.  Dumping millions of tons of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere affects the climate.  Far fewer people came to the Mall to attend his Inauguration than the previous two.

These things are just true.

Also true (you can see it on tape): he said he would “absolutely” release his tax returns if he ran for president.

“I will never lie to you,” he said.  You can see that on tape as well.

But of course he lies nonstop.  Most of us know that, no?  Why do his supporters not care?

Watch Seth Myers on Giuliani and Trump. Wow.

And now check out: How Trump’s false claim about African American support happened — a case study in how easily things go south, how easily tens of millions are misled.

But mainly, I wanted to finish the week hailing the low unemployment rate — it’s wonderful to see the improvement — but putting it in context.

The rate is now the lowest it’s been since 2000, when Bill Clinton, a Democrat, handed George W. Bush an economy that had added 23 million new private-sector jobs and a budget deficit that had been turned into a surplus.

After eight years, Bush, a Republican, handed Obama a plunging economy and an exploding deficit.

Obama, a Democrat, averted global depression and – despite unprecedented Republican obstruction – handed Trump an economy that had taken the unemployment rate down from 10% to 4.8% with 75 consecutive months of private sector job growth and deficits low enough that the National Debt was finally once again SHRINKING relative to GDP.

Trump and his Republican Congress took that and – not least by borrowing heavily to give the wealthy a tax cut – kept those 75 consecutive monthly unemployment gains going.  At a slightly lower rate than in Obama’s last year.

Those are the facts.

The headline could be: “Trump maintains Obama job pace with the aid of massive new deficit spending.”

Trump spins it as an enormous accomplishment.

The economy was HORRIBLE until he took office, with the true unemployment rate, he told us, more like 24% or even, he’d heard, “as high as 42%.”

And we will absolutely see his tax returns if he runs for president, and all 22 women are lying, and he didn’t make fun of the disabled on national TV, and the very large, very red-face man at the Acropolis — who I expect is in many ways, like most Trump supporters, a fine fellow — thinks all this is an amazing improvement over the swamp we had in Washington, and the carnage we had in our streets, before Donald Trump (and Ryan Zinke) rode into town.

At least now, thanks to Trump, everybody has “great health care at a tiny fraction of the cost.”

Have a great weekend.

Not sure I want to spend $30 million to live in Dubai.  But these imagined wind-powered buildings, with independently rotating apartments, are pretty cool.  Two minutes.  (Thanks, Mel!)

And if that caught your interest, here’s a YouTube on the world’s “20 Most Futuristic Buildings.”

Greece is amazing, but a glass-domed igloo under the Northern lights in Lapland (transfer at Helsinki, bring warm clothes), looks pretty amazing, too.

Last Friday, I offered this free voter registration toolkit.

Today, if you run a nonprofit — or know someone who does — this free toolkit.

The former could save our democracy, if enough young people use it to help shape their future.

The latter . . . well, I just look for any way possible to enhance the value of your subscription.  Like American Express platinum, trying to justify the $550 annual fee.  “One $85 TSA pre-check credit every four years!”  That alone is worth $21.25 a year if you remember to use your Amex to renew your pre-check!  (Which lasts 5 years, so really $17 a year.)

Looking for a wonderful movie you may have missed?  Victoria and Abdul.  Saw it on the plane.

Looking for a really nice Athens Hotel, with rooftop bar views of the Acropolis and the best included breakfast you will ever have?  It’s called the Fresh Hotel.

But mainly, in case you missed “60 Minutes,” Sunday, you’ve got to see or read this — “The Problem With Prescription Drug Prices” — and scream bloody murder for as long as it takes to get it fixed.

Wouldn’t that be great?  If he had decided to become a DJ in later life — DJ Trump — instead of the greatest danger America and the world have ever faced from the Oval Office?

Oh, well.

But if he hasn’t already resigned (I’m in Greece, so might have missed the news), treat yourself to Frank Rich on Trump Mentor Roy Cohn, who — I’m embarrassed to say — went to my high school (some years ahead of me, though we had some of the same teachers) . . . who was close friends with two of my close friends (“we know, we know — but he’s so funny and throws such great parties and knows so many cute boys!”) . . . and whom I met just once, briefly, with those two friends at a large gay party in Miami (it was uncomfortable).

Oh, God.  How did it ever come to this?

PS – Don’t miss Cohn’s telephone operator’s tidbits in the addendum at the bottom of the story.  Two-sentence anecdotes on people like Gloria Vanderbilt and George Steinbrenner.  Hysterical.