A Remarkable American Diplomatic Achievement July 17, 2015July 16, 2015 Yesterday I urged you to find time to watch the President’s news conference. (And offered this relatively short take from Zbigniew Brzezinski, characterizing Israel’s Mr. Netanyahu as “not a serious person.”) Jerry: “I rarely watch these things but once I started, couldn’t help but take in the entire hour’s press conference with great pride and admiration. We are indeed fortunate to have such a leader.” Sara: “I so appreciated the link to the analysis by Zbigniew Brzezinski on the Iran deal.” Really: there could be thunderstorms this weekend! If not, you could get sun poisoning! Or stung by something. Come inside for an hour and become a little bit expert in what the President’s team have worked more than a year, in cooperation with five other nations, to achieve. Here‘s the British ambassador: the deal “makes the world a safer place.” Here‘s Roger Cohen in the New York Times: “a remarkable American diplomatic achievement.” It’s okay to be relieved. It’s okay to be enthusiastic. It’s okay to be proud. I am.
Iran And The Morbidly Obese July 16, 2015July 16, 2015 IRAN I hope you somehow found time to watch the President’s news conference yesterday. This is really consequential stuff, so if you have doubts about the deal, you should watch. And perhaps this relatively short take from Zbigniew Brzezinski (“I am impressed, encouraged by the deal“) who has a choice word or two about Mr. Netanyahu. But really: as important as this is to our country and the world, take an hour to watch the President and underdstand it. I think you will be encouraged. ETRM Yikes. Down to 35 cents from its brief spike to $2 in January, as reported here. This, despite FDA approval of its therapy for the morbidly obese. I bought more yesterday, but only with (yet more) money I can truly afford to lose. I’ll wait 31 days and sell the earlier shares for a nice fat tax loss . . . hoping that a year or two from now the shares might — might — be back over a buck.
War, Peace, Sharks, and Cyber-Attacks July 15, 2015July 15, 2015 “If you want justice, it’s two hundred dollars an hour. Obstruction of justice runs a bit more.” — another New Yorker cartoon by Leo Collum. Okay. So: Yesterday, the history of military and civilian deaths from war throughout our history. Today, as we celebrate the deal to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and avert another war — as I believe we should celebrate it (Leslie Gelb’s thoughtful analysis here) — a site that purports to show the world’s cyber-attacks in real time. One more thing to be scared about! (And sharks! Don’t forget sharks! Have you already seen this woman’s heartfelt advice?) But also today: Stephen Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Bill Gates’ “favorite book of the last decade — a long but profound look at the reduction in violence and discrimination over time.” C’mon, humans! It’s a long shot, but if we all put our minds to it, we might not hurtle off the rails.
War — And The Long Peace July 14, 2015 But first a joke (well, a New Yorker cartoon by Leo Collum). Lawyer across the desk from a prospective client: “My fees are quite high and yet you say you have little money. I think I’m seeing a conflict of interest here.” Now: Have you got 18 minutes to watch a timeline summary of all the military and civilian deaths in history? Most especially the 70 million of World War II? Not in any way to minimize the world’s current nightmares and threats — but seeing it this way does provide perspective.
Addiction – What We Can Learn From Portugal July 13, 2015July 12, 2015 This TED talk strikes me as really important . . . whether you or a loved one has a drug problem, is addicted to Words With Friends, or simply wants to be a better informed voter as we seek ways to reduce suffering, crime, and costs. Let me know your thoughts.
Mars, Paris, Dixie July 10, 2015July 10, 2015 Yesterday: China, Puerto Rico, and the land of Borealis. Today: HOW WE’LL LIVE ON MARS The author says little more than 20 years. But even if it winds up being 50 — or 100! — that’s basically tomorrow. Can’t wait to read the book. IS IT TIME FOR THE JEWS TO LEAVE FRANCE? My great friend Marie Brenner wrote this just-published — riveting — piece for Vanity Fair. Is it beginning all over? Again? I like to think the good people of France will not allow it — just as the good people of South Carolina have decided to lower the flag. THAT FLAG When you read in Vanity Fair about Amedy Coulibaly, who killed four at a Jewish supermarket in Paris . . . and then here, in an impassioned post by Douglas A. Blackmon, about Dylann Roof, who killed nine in a church in Charleston . . . you realize how much they have in common. A black Muslim murderer from Mali; a white Lutheran murderer from South Carolina. Both certain they were doing something good. In a world where such things are possible, we cannot have a backup world soon enough. Just in case the good people of Earth are somehow unable to prevent catastrophe. If only Mars were a little warmer. (But forget Venus!) And, under the cirucmstances, should we change its name from Mars to Pax? *CORRECTION* Mike Martin: “I believe yesterday’s Hunan fireworks video is fake: notice that YouTube describes it as ‘FWSim’ which is software for simulating fireworks displays on your computer.” Oops. But have a great weekend anyway.
China, Puerto Rico, BOREF July 9, 2015July 9, 2015 CHINA / CISG The Chinese stock market has dropped 30% in a month — but before you go out running for bargains, note that it is still 80% higher than it was last summer. The bubble may have further to deflate. Here’s a quick clip from yesterday with the tale. One Chinese stock that may not have been overvalued, as argued here before, and whose sudden sharp drop may be a case of a perfectly good baby having been thrown out with the bathwater, is CISG. I bought more yesterday at $5.76. I’m told it has $8 or $9 of cash per share, so in effect, at $5.76 [update: $6.83], you’re getting its profitable automobile insurance business for free. Indeed, you’re being paid handsomely to take it. Just as you were a year and a half ago, if you bought shares at $5.40 when first suggested, before they doubled. (“This would be an obvious time to sell half and, with house money, see what happens with the rest,” I suggested a few weeks ago, with the stock at $11. In case you did sell half, it might make sense now to buy them back.) Note that someone just paid $11.80 a share for $37 million worth, which gives me further comfort there may be value for us here at $6 or $7 a share. CHINA /FIREWORKS It’s not just in their infratsructure that China is leap-frogging. Get a load of this two-minute 2013 New Year’s Eve fireworks display from a town in Hunan province. (Thanks, Glenn.) Of course, the Chinese invented fireworks. [OOPS. Mike Martin: “I believe the Hunan fireworks video is fake: notice that YouTube describes it as ‘FWSim’ which is software for simulating fireworks displays on your computer.”] PUERTO RICO Mentioned here and here, this may be a cliffhanger. If you were smart enough not to buy the zero coupon bonds at $92 each, when I did, you may now be able to get them for more like $65. Only with money you can truly afford to lose. BOREF Some lucky — or unlucky — bastard bought a few shares Tuesday at $6.70. That values the whole company at less than half what Demi Moore is asking for her apartment. One day, we’ll all look back and laugh. Either at how I actually could have believed any of this (like Isaac Newton buying shares in the South Sea Bubble?) . . . or else “all the way to the bank.” No Isaac Newton, my strong assumption, nonetheless, is that the stock dropped not — likie an apple from a tree — because anything has come unhinged, but because a shareholder got bored and sold.
Thank You, For A Real Good Time July 7, 2015July 7, 2015 That’s what the blimp circling Chicago’s Soldier Field Stadium periodcially scrolled across its giant display, as 70,000 Deadheads — all of whom know the Loose Lucy lyric — did indeed thank the band for 50 years of a real good time. For three nights running, as you probably saw on the news. Here was the Empire State Building in New York bopping to the sound in Chicago Saturday — how often does the Empire State Building bop? And here‘s the video I took of the fireworks Sunday. That’s the night my friend and I went. You may have seen us on TV — two specks in a potent haze. (Here we are. Move your mouse from the top of Phil Lesh’s upraised left pinky straight toward that giant black rectangular at the far end of the stadium. Now go back about a quarter inch, which is to say 20 rows from the lower edge of the black rectangle. That’s us. The woman next to us is from Alabama.) The irony is that I, an old guy, am at best an aspiring Deadhead . . . a Deadhead-in-training . . . having jumped on the band’s wagon just last summer — somehow I missed the first 49 years — whereas my friend who snagged us tickets, just 2 years old when Cherry Garcia became a flavor, knows seemingly every lyric of all 200 songs and could reliably tell from virtually the first note, a good 5 seconds before the rest of the crowd, what was up next. The songs I didn’t know were fine. But, oh, the difference it makes when you do know them. I was out getting us more beer and a pretzel when “Unbroken Chain” began to play — not one I knew — and half the people in line bolted to go back to their seats. (It still took forever, and just as it was my turn to order, they cut off all beer sales to give folks an hour to sober up a little, I guess, before driving back to Iowa. And the pretzel I got was unsalted. What, please, is the point of an unsalted pretzel?) But then there was “Days Between,” which I also didn’t know but could appreciate on first listen . . . . . . one of the deepest and darkest cuts in the Dead catalog, its lyrics painting a grim landscape where “summer flies and August dies, and the world grows dark and mean.” Still, the song’s soaring finale offer “all we ever wanted was to learn and love and grow … [we] gave the best we had to give, how much we’ll never know,” lines that seemed appropriate here. . . . . . . followed by “Not Fade Away” to close out the night and “Touch of Grey” (the first encore), both of which I have on my jukebox (actual 45’s in an actual jukebox) — and suddenly I was not just bopping to the music, enjoyably, like a tiny Empire State Building; I was involved. I was invested. “No our love / will not fade away” had a chorus 70,000 strong . . . who kept repeating it acapella for several minutes after the music stopped. Literally. It was tribal. And the “Touch of Grey” lyric? “I will get by — I will survive.” After what a fair number of the folks there at Soldiers Field had been through over the decades? Maybe even including, in some small way, your humble servant? You had to be there. And we were. Thanks, Brian.
Where Am I? July 6, 2015July 4, 2015 I have not died and gone to heaven, I have lost my mind and flown to Chicago. For the final Grateful Dead concert. Long story . . . but take the day off. Bop. Bop bop. Or watch this poignant four-minute story. (If it’s told by Steven Spielberg, you know it’s likely to be worth your time.) Thanks, Mel!
43’s Rising Popularity July 2, 2015June 30, 2015 According to CNN, former President George W. Bush is now more popular than current President Barack Obama. That’s right: Bush, who misled us into a disastrous war and wrecked our national balance sheet; Obama, who saved us from global depression and reduced the American body counts from that war to zero. Paul Abrams: “Democrats have allowed Bush back by not constantly bashing him for the Iraq War, the most disastrous economic and financial collapse since the Great Depression, and being asleep at the switch for 9/11 and Katrina. Democrats ran against Herbert Hoover through the 1960 campaign. Why not Bush?” ☞ Democrats, I would argue, are not great at bashing. I’m sure some of us do bash from time to time. But as a general rule, Republicans go at it more freely. Mitch McConnell . . . not just any Republican, but their leader . . . seems a lot more comfortable saying that “By any standard, Barack Obama has been a disaster for our country” — spectacularly, demonstrably, wildly, absurdly untrue* — than Barack Obama seems comfortable characterizing the disaster he inherited. He tends to call it the Great Recession. One might argue that we should call it the Terrible Recession — it was not great, it was terrible — and always, always add the word “Bush.” The Terrible Bush Recession. Or the word “Republican.” The Terrible Republican Recession. The truth is, most of us are not comfortable doing that. It seems rather bad sportsmanship. Of course he played a terrible game. Just not right to rub it in (and could backfire for that very reason). He’s a nice guy, almost everyone who’s met him agrees. (I even have a photo with him myself. In our 20-second exchange he was completely charming and self-deprecating.) He didn’t mean for things to go disastrously wrong. He paints remarkably well. Give the guy a break! So — largely — we do. Or at least more largely than their guys give our guys a break. We had the courtly, shy Warren Christopher quartbacking Bush v. Gore; they had James Baker — and Tom Delay staffers, among others, flying down to Miami, shouting and pounding to “stop the recount!” — the so-called Brooks Brothers riot. You may believe Democrats are as guilty of bashing as are Republicans. Or that Bush did a great job and Obama has been a disaster. But the fact that by at least CNN’s measure George W. Bush was recently more popular than Barack Obama? It’s at best a matter of some frustration to those of us who disagree. *If “any standard” includes such basics as job creation, housing prices, corporate profits, the stock market, daily body counts, health care inflation, high school graduation rates, gas prices, energy independence, or deficit reduction.