Pass the Salt and Join the Movement November 12, 2014 I still like Home Depot for the long run. Its 7% gain since having been suggested a couple of months ago wouldn’t keep me from buying more if I didn’t already have a nice chunk — but for the long term. I have no idea where it, or the market, will be in a six months. Meanwhile, a stock Guru and I recently paid as much as $20.70 for last month — AKBA — can now be yours for about half the price. Of course, if it goes to zero, you will lose the same 100% we do. But Guru thinks “It should be in the 30s or 40s. It’s the wave of the future of anemia management and although it’s behind Fibrogen, it has a drug that looks structurally similar, certainly works well, and didn’t kill anyone. No question: it’s a medical breakthrough.” If it did ever hit $40, you’d have nearly a quadruple while, on the first shares I bought, I’d have only a double. I hate you. PASS THE SALT Funny. JOIN THE MOVEMENT Important. “Cynicism is a choice. Hope is a better choice.” — Barack Obama
Will the Court Kill Obamacare on an Absurd Technicality? November 11, 2014 The people who wrote the Affordable Care Act think the new Supreme Court case is ridiculous. They clearly intended to make health care affordable to everyone, not just everyone in certain states. I find Paul Abrams’ prediction that the Court will, nonetheless, kill the law, brilliantly reasoned, deeply depressing — and (based on hope alone) surely wrong. Is the Court really going to become the Fox News of “fair and balanced?” A frightening thought that goes far beyond Obamacare.
The Mandate November 10, 2014November 10, 2014 MONEY UPDATE Tom Martel: “The past couple months we have been bombarded with political rhetoric, EVERYWHERE. I think you should give your faithful readers a break and throttle back to Finance for a week or two. Let’s hear about your new investment followings. What about Corning, how about the bankruptcy of SIGA, our long love of WheelTug, and the company on the water at the Great Lakes?” ☞ That’s fair. WheelTug seems to be tugging along, as best I can tell — hang on to your BOREF with money you can truly afford to lose. Silt continues to accumulate and GLDD shares seemed pleasantly strong in the face of the most recent earnings release, even though it missed expectations. It’s boring, but I just figure that someday the various stars will align and I may be able to sell for $12 or $15 or something. SIGA remains the disappointment I think I’ve written about before, but I’m sure not selling it at this price. Not all bankruptcies are created equal. And Corning? I am so not qualified to opine; I just think that at 15X earnings, and with the possibility that one day all our roads and parking lots will be made of glass. George Mokray: “Look at this solar freaking bikeway! Isn’t it great that the election voted climate change doesn’t exist? Now we can all relax.” Which brings us back to politics. THE “MANDATE” I checked Politico’s tally of each Senate race and, using all my fingers and toes, came up with just under 23 million Republican votes. So just over 7% of every living American voted for Republican policies (anti-Ebola, anti-Obamacare-yet-pro-KYnext-which-is-the-same-thing, etc.). You might think that’s a mandate from which our future course should be set; yet just over 20 million voted for Democrats.* So just over 6% voted for Democratic policies (pro- the Administration’s handling of Ebola,** pro-Obamacare, etc.). My own feeling is that each issue should be considered on its merits. If virtually the entire scientific community holds one view but 7% versus 6% of Americans disagree, should we trust the electoral “mandate” or go with the science? And of course the 7%/6% thing was skewed by the fact that populous Democratic states like New York and California had no Senate races this year. If their views were counted in the tally, the mandate might well have been Democratic, as it was in 2012 and may again be in 2016. It’s a little bizarre, no? The notion that this was a mandate against the President’s policies . . . when the public at large favors most of them, such as hiking the minimum wage or requiring universal background checks or rebuilding our infrastructure or allowing grads to refinance their federal student loans? Hello? *I included votes for Greg Orman, as he was running to unseat Kansas Republican Pat Roberts. **The American death toll has now risen to . . . still zero. Here is a map of Africa showing how the continent — or at least a tiny chip of it — is infected. And, while we’re at it, here is another, showing how immense Africa is.
The Republican Narrative November 7, 2014 The Dow just hit another all-time high. The American Ebola death toll remains zero. Gas prices are down. Unemployment claims are down to a level not seen in 14 years. And the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8%. Governor Romney promised to get it “down to 6%, or perhaps a little lower,” by January, 2017 if we elected him. Had he achieved that, does anyone doubt that Mitch McConnell, Rush Limbaugh, Reince Priebus, and all the other straight shooters we look to for leadership would be praising his achievement? That the President got us there in less than half the time will, of course, be ignored. “By any standard,” Mitch McConnell told voters just weeks ago, “Barack Obama has been a disaster for our country.” And you can trust Mitch to tell it like it is . . . . . . just as so many voters trusted Bush 43 when he told them, repeatedly, that “By far the vast majority” of his proposed tax cuts would “go to the bottom end of the spectrum.” A knowing, multi-trillion-dollar lie. . . . or when he told us we would go to war with Iraq only if we truly had to as a last resort to protect our country, never mentioning that he had been planning war with Iraq from the first days of his presidency. And so I again commend to you Wednesday’s press conference. The President’s answers, as always, struck me as thoughtful and candid. Not to say that in nearly six years he has never said something that, with hindsight, might have been edited. > Campaigning in 2000, he told the LGBT community he would be “a fierce advocate” for our equality. For years, many activists ridiculed that characterization. And yet the overall notion — that he was on our side — seems to have been accurate. And most would now agree enormous progress has been made. > In selling the Affordable Care Act, he was overly broad and categorical in promising that “if you like your current care you can keep it.” But however that happened, it was not an attempt to shift vast wealth to the already wealthy, many of them his friends. Or to start an unnecessary war. Quite the opposite, it was an attempt — after 80 years’ trying — finally to bring health care security to anyone who might someday suffer from a “pre-existing condition” . . . which is to say all 320 million of us . . . finally to help tens of millions obtain affordable care . . . finally to begin solving the structural problem that has put American manufacturers at a sharp competitive disadvantage. (And it’s working — see below.) There may be other examples — I count on you not to be shy in reminding me of them — but those are actually the only two I can think of. # Our Republican friends are casting last week’s election as a mandate to repeal Obamacare. But was the 2012 election, when far more people turned out to express their views — and when the law’s namesake (Obama!) was specifically on the ballot — a mandate to keep it? Could the 880,000 negative ads run after the law’s passage have distorted the public’s view? Should we heed the Kentuckians who like KYnect — or the same Kentuckians who hate Obamacare? KYnext and Obamacare are, after all, just two names for the same thing. Our Republican friends are casting the election as a mandate to stop Obama. But on the issues, the polling among Americans generally, not just the third who turned out to vote last week, heavily favor the things the President has long sought to do: like raising the minimum wage; putting people to work rebuilding our infrastructure; requiring universal background checks for gun purchases. # How do you get 70% of those who voted to reelect George W. Bush to believe Iraq played a role in attacking us on 9/11? How do you get people to believe that the scientific consensus on climate change is a hoax? Or that the wealthy are “the job creators” (we’re not) — and won’t hire workers they need to make more profits if the tax rate on those profits goes up? (Or will hire workers they don’t need if the tax rate on their profits goes down?) Some clues to the required techniques were laid out here, by a Republican lobbyist: “We run all this stuff through nonprofit organizations that are insulated from having to disclose donors. There is total anonymity,” Berman said. “People don’t know who supports us. We’ve been doing this for 20-something years in this regard.” Berman also referenced a tactic that’s often used by climate deniers: framing a certain situation as a debate. “You get in people’s mind a tie,” he said. “They don’t know who is right. And you get all ties because the tie basically insures the status quo.” OBAMACARE IS WORKING Health care inflation hasn’t been so low in ages, even as the percentage of Americans who lack coverage has dropped dramatically after just the first open-enrollment period. (The second beings November 15.) Want to learn more? Check out Zeke Emanuel’s just-published Reinventing American Health Care: How the Affordable Care Act will Improve our Terribly Complex, Blatantly Unjust, Outrageously Expensive, Grossly Inefficient, Error Prone System. One big picture way of looking at Obamacare is that it shifts tens of billions a dollars a year from wealthy people to make health care affordable for low income people. That’s TERRIBLE if you are wealthy, short-sighted, and selfish. But pretty great if you’re near the bottom of the economic ladder – or if you or someone you love has or might someday develop a preexisting condition. (Which is to say: everyone.) There’s a lot more to like in the Act than just that — read Emanuel’s book — but for me, at least, that explains a lot. It’s not some dubious “free lunch.” It’s tens of billions of dollars raised largely from a 3.8% surtax on investment income above $250,000 going to improve the lives and health and security of every American and helping American manufacturers compete. Not something that I think most people — if they saw 880,000 ads explaining, rather than disparaging, it — would want to repeal. Have a great weekend.
Meeting The Press November 6, 2014 Did you have a chance to watch the President’s press conference? It’s far more interesting than anything I could post today and confirms yet again — at least to me — that we have a superbly reasonable, capable, moderate, well-intentioned . . . and, yes, successful . . . leader. We are ridiculously better off than we were when he first took office.
So Now What? November 5, 2014November 5, 2014 Simple. We keep at it. (Not that you needed me to tell you that.) And it would have been true no matter how last night turned out. In my lifetime, no President in his seventh and eighth years has enjoyed control of either house of Congress. Not Eisenhower, not Reagan, not Clinton, not Bush, and — now — not Obama. But that was no reason not to try. I regret not a dime or an hour spent trying to break that precedent. It was a horrible night, but nothing has changed: The Earth, I believe, is still more than 9,000 years old; climate change is still a tremendous problem; our infrastructure is still crumbling — even as there are still un- and under-employed Americans eager for work revitalizing it. Most Americans still favor the American Jobs Act that would put those un- and under-employed Americans back to work (but that the Republicans block) . . . still favor the comprehensive immigration reform that economists say would boost our economy (but that the Republicans block) . . . still favor the $10.10 minimum wage and “universal background checks” and the Employment Nondiscrimination Act that the Republicans block . . . still favor the Medicare expansion funds the Republicans reject . . . still favor the benefits of the Affordable Care Act that the Republicans tried so hard to block, voted 52 times to repeal, and then spent $418 million in negative TV spots to mischaracterize . . . still favor refinancing federal student loan at today’s low rates . . . and the rights of women to make difficult choices in consultation with their doctors without government-mandated vaginal probes. And yet we failed to make the case. (The predominant focus these last few weeks was instead on the Ebola pandemic, the American death toll from which has now soared, I am compelled to report, to . . . still zero.) Sure we got unemployment down in two years to where Mitt Romney promised to get it after four — and all the rest: an averted depression, a record-high stock market, a rescued auto industry, a healthy housing market, a strong dollar, a plummeting deficit, health care security, two wars ended, Bin Laden dead. But if only we had George W. Bush back, the electorate seemed to be saying last night! If only we could have had McCain/Palin these last six years instead of Obama/Biden! If only we could have Mitch McConnell and John Boehner running everything, not just Congress! It makes no sense to me, but neither does putting a climate change denier in charge of the House Space and Technology committee (and now, very possibly, another in charge of the Senate Environment Committee — see his book calling climate change a “conspiracy”). So last night was horrible, and further retards what could otherwise actually be a terrific time for our country (which is already enjoying better economic times than almost any other). All we’d have to do to jump into high gear would be to pass the American Jobs Act, hike the minimum wage, sign immigration reform into law (and allow student loan refinancing, for good measure). We’d see employment and wages rise, inequality and the deficit fall, keep our bridges from collapsing . . . a long-term virtuous cycle ours to grab — that receded further out of reach yesterday. But that was yesterday. Now we have to get back to work . . . make what progress we can on these and other issues over the next two years . . . and then hold the White House and win back Congress in 2016. (Not least by re-taking the many blue-state Senate seats lost in the 2010 Republican landslide.) So many of my friends think the whole process stinks and just wish the two parties could be moderate and sensible and straight-talking and all the rest. So do I. But as I’ve argued before, it’s not equivalent. Their moderates get primaried out by uncompromising extremists; ours do not. As a result, their remaining moderates are rightly afraid of a Koch-financed primary, and so refuse to compromise. Our moderates have no reason to fear a primary, so do not fear compromise. Huge difference. My friends also hate all the strident emails and constant appeals for funds. Me, too. But when I start to resent the burden, I remind myself that I didn’t have to risk my life in Iraq or slog through the jungles of Vietnam or, for that matter, freeze in a tent at Valley Forge. My big service to my country, my big hardship, is writing a lot of checks and having to delete thousands of emails. I feel as though I’ve gotten off easy. # Ralph Nader gave us the president who gave us the Court that rendered decisions like Citizens United and McCutcheon and gutted the Voting Rights Act, giving the Kochs et al even more power to swing elections their way — and perhaps tighten their grip still further. So winning in 2016 will not be easy. Which is why I plan to go to the movies for a couple of days and then get back to asking folks for support. After 5 billion years leading up to this geological nanosecond, our ridiculous but miraculous little species — 7.2 billion passengers on an all but infinitesimal speck of a spaceship — have just a few decades to get on a sustainable trajectory. If we do, we’re on the cusp of all but unimaginable well-being. If we don’t, we’re on the brink of disaster. So it matters, and it’s interesting, and it amazes me how many people only care which candidate they’d rather have a beer with. Or who don’t even vote at all.
Election Day November 4, 2014November 3, 2014 Want your student loan payment slashed? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat, because Republicans in Congress are all that stand in the way. Want to boost the economy with a 40% raise hike for those who make minimum wage? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat, because . . . same deal. Want to boost the economy with immigration reform? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat. Want to boost the economy by repairing America’s crumbling infrastructure? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat. Want to enact the universal background checks that even 74% of NRA members favor? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat. Want ENDA passed? JUST VOTE! . . . Democrat. A majority of Americans favor all these things; just not a majority of Republicans in Congress. They pride themselves on being unwilling to compromise. Want to break the gridlock and get America moving again? Just vote. Today’s the day. Thanks for all you’ve already done to make it turn out right.
Be Healthier AND Wealthier: Vote Democrat November 3, 2014October 22, 2018 REPUBLICANS DON’T WANT YOU TO VOTE: In Ohio, they’ve reduced early voting and eliminated same-day registration. In Wisconsin, they’ve reduced early voting and eliminated weekends. In North Carolina, they’ve chopped early voting by 40% and chopped same-day registration, among much else. In Kansas, they’ve implemented unnecessary proof of citizenship requirements. In Texas, their new voter ID law will impact an estimated 600,000 residents who lack the specified ID. In Kentucky, they’re mailing potential voters misleading threats. In Georgia, they’ve kept tens of thousands of new registrants in limbo and have joined an effort to purge minority voters from the rolls in 27 states. BUT YOU SHOULD ANYWAY, BECAUSE THE ECONOMY DOES BETTER UNDER DEMOCRATS Look at this graph. The red line shows how he economy did in years when Republicans controlled both Congress and the Presidency (rotten!); the green: how it did in years of divided government (better!); the blue: how it did with just Democrats (great!). There’s no magic to this. Democrats are expansive and invest in the future; Republicans favor austerity, except for the best off. (Whom they mistakenly consider “the job creators.”) The irony is that it is the Republicans who have wrecked our national balance sheet since 1980 . . . and only the Democrats who have twice, under Presidents Clinton and Obama, reversed the expansion of our National Debt relative to the economy as a whole. (It’s fine to have debt; you just don’t want it growing faster than the economy. In most years, you want it growing slower. President Bush handed President Obama a $1.5 trillion deficit and a shrinking economy. Today the debt is once again growing slower than the economy.) Republicans want to cut taxes for the rich — for example, cut the estate tax on billionheirs to zero. Democrats want to raise the minimum wage. (The further irony is that raising the minimum wage would help the rich along with everyone else. As I’ve argued before: higher wages = greater demand = stronger economy = greater job growth = higher tax receipts and lower safety-net payouts = lower deficits = virtuous cycle.) Invested in the S&P 500 only during Republican administrations since 1929, and excluding dividends, $10,000 would have grown to only about $12,000. Compare that to about $595,000 under Democrats (if I’ve updated the numbers right). Here’s a different but similarly compelling representation of the contrast. AND WE’LL BE HEALTHIER It may seem an odd time to say this, in the middle of an all-consuming Ebola pandemic that has already claimed the lives of . . . zero . . . Americans. But not only will voting for Democrats tomorrow help to make us better off financially, it will be better for our health. Already, health care inflation is falling even as 10 million more people have coverage, after just a single open-enrollment period. (The next one starts starts November 15 and runs through February 15.) And no one with, or who might someday develop, a “pre-existing condition” — which is to say all of us — need ever again worry about losing or being denied coverage. And insurers can no longer keep more than 15% or 20% of the premium dollars they collect — the rest has to go to actual health care. Check this out to see who’s benefited the most so far . . . and to read how the Affordable Care Act “isn’t just expanding health insurance. It’s reducing inequality.” Which is another one of those things that are actually good for everybody, not just the least advantaged. Whatever psychological and social damage it may do, inequality — when it becomes too extreme — also stunts economic growth. It’s better when the pie is expanding for most people, not just those buying $35 million pieds-a-terre. Republicans oppose on principle making health care affordable and accessible to everyone. They fought to keep from covering more kids . . . and then to keep from extending Mitt Romney’s health insurance success nationwide (labeling it, “Obamacare”) . . . and then, once the Affordable Care Act did pass, voted 52 times to repeal it . . . have declined tens of billions in federal Medicaid expansion money . . . all the while spending, according to a study cited by Politico, $418 million on 880,000 negative advertising spots to be sure the voting public would think it’s a bad thing. Just as Michael Grunwald’s The NEW New Deal: The Hidden Story of Change in the Obama Era laid out the rather glorious details of President Obama’s $800 billion 2009 Recovery Act (“Even Republicans should read it.” — The Economist) — good news on almost every page that to this day almost no one knows about . . . . . . so does Zeke Emanuel’s wonderfully readable new Reinventing American Health Care: How the Affordable Care Act Will Improve our Terribly Complex, Blatantly Unjust, Grossly Inefficient, Error Prone System now lay out the health care bill so few know much about. The news is good. If we act sensibly to keep the Act on course, the quality of our care will improve even as inflation and waste are further wrung out of the system and we gradually lessen our disadvantage versus competitor nations that enjoy health care outcomes as good as ours but at dramatically lower cost. Our Republican friends hope to begin unraveling all that by winning control of the Senate tomorrow.