Math May 15, 2009March 15, 2017 NUMBER 9, NUMBER 9, NUMBER 9 Roger: “This is really good.” [HINT: Try it first before reading any further.] ☞ The question is: WHY does any two-digit number – when those two digits are subtracted from it – become a number divisible by 9? Roger: “Is that the question? Math isn’t my thing. To me this is simply a miracle.” ☞ Because the answer is always divisible by 9, they can always know the number you chose is divisible by 9. So if they put up an array of gifts – but have it be the same gift for 9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 54, 63, 72, 81, and 90 – they will always get it right. And I guess the answer to my question is, well, start out with 10. Subtract 1 and 0 from 10 and you get 9. From there on in, the die is cast. Because when you go up to 11, you are adding one more – but also subtracting one more. So still 9. Go up to 12 (12-1-2=9) and you’ve added one more and are subtracting one more. NAQ Allen Kath: “Can you reevaluate NAQ for us? With GM’s market cap at under a billion, smart guys (your characterization) with $400M to buy stuff is tempting to own.” ☞ Gosh – I hope they don’t buy GM. I think the most likely scenario is that they come up with a great deal that they ultimately cannot get the investors to approve . . . because a lot of those investors may have changed their risk profiles by now and be counting on return of their investment as risk-free cash. If that happens, we’ll get back our cash on any shares we own, perhaps even with a few cents profit – but all my beautiful little warrants will expire spectacularly worthless. But you never know. IN CONTEXT Ralph Sierra: “Take a good look at this cluster of stars. It isn’t a picture of the universe, it’s just one cluster of stars. Blow the picture up by clicking on the 2400 X 2025 view, and scroll to the edges. Take a good look at the faintest stars. Each one, more or less, the size of our solar system. Now, imagine how important it is where we spend eternity.” ☞ Or at least go see Star Trek.
More Hope May 14, 2009March 15, 2017 Sorry I blew yesterday’s Jeremy Grantham link, now fixed. MARRIAGE IN 30 SECONDS Pass this on to your (mostly older) friends and relatives who are uncomfortable at the thought of granting civil marriage to same sex couples. It could melt their hearts. (Anybody have Miss California’s email?) FIXING FLORIDA – II Arlen Long: “Yesterday, you pointed us to ‘Four reforms for a better legislature.’ One of the reforms was fair districts (fairdistrictsflorida.org). It seems that our whole country would benefit from fair districts. I figure it would significantly reduce the excessive partisanship (“As a Congressman, I must vote for only whatever side I am on because my district is comprised only of that kind of people”) and might even bring back what used to be a representative democracy (“I must look out for both sides, because my district has people in it of differing views.”) Just as CA led the country into environmental discussions, perhaps FL will lead in the country into election fairness discussions. The current 10-year redistricting (gerrymandering) events (in Texas: anytime events) are outrageous. I am looking forward to the time when the idea becomes interesting enough that a reporter mentions it at one of the White House daily briefings.” FALSE HOPE Yesterday I asked: If False Hope Is Self-Fulfilling IS It False? It certainly wasn’t in 1981, when Ronald Reagan rode into office. Back then interest rates were 15%, inflation 18%, and unemployment in double digits as well. Anyone who understood the situation knew (or at least I thought I knew) it was hopeless. If the Fed tightened money and credit to fight inflation, unemployment would soar still higher. If it eased money and credit, inflation would go through the roof. Disaster either way. “Don’t worry! Be happy! It’ll be fine.” said our new President (more or less). And people – not fully understanding the box we were in – calmed down and started acting as though things would be okay . . . and that helped make things okay. (Ample doses of tax cuts and deficit spending helped prime the pump.) Now comes a new President who radiates competence and calm, making clear that we’ll do what we need to to get the job done (which I believe we will) . . . telling the truth, no less (things will get worse before they get better; not everything we try will work) . . . and it is having a positive impact, as it should. The difference is that when Reagan took over, the National Debt was 30% of GDP, so he had plenty of room to take on more debt. As Obama takes over, the debt is more like 90% of GDP, so the situation is more precarious. It’s not a matter simply of weathering a bad recession and then going back to business as usual. We need to transform our economy into something leaner, more efficient, more competitive, more sustainable; saving and producing more, consuming less. It will make us more prosperous than ever – but not before we go through some pretty wrenching, extended readjustments. How the stock market gyrates along the way . . . well, as noted yesterday, smart people disagree.
If False Hope Is Self-Fulfilling IS It False? (If no one is in the forest to hear it?) May 13, 2009March 15, 2017 To get a leg up in life, keep your feet on the ground, your ear to the ground, your nose to the grindstone, your head on your shoulders, your shoulder to the wheel, your eye on the ball, your finger on the pulse, your chin up and your hand in. Being limber helps. (If that sounds familiar, you read it here last Fall. I’m into partial summer reruns. If ’60 Minutes’ can do it, so can I.) FLORIDA IS A MESS Here‘s how to fix it. (Start by fixing the legislature.) WHO’S RIGHT? Yesterday I referred to the bullish stance of my smart friend John Hook, whose model portfolio is already up 32% for the year, and the bearish stance of someone named Niels Jensen, who John Mauldin thinks is very smart (which is good enough for me). Mr. Jensen says: run for your life! Who’s right? The the bulls or the bears? According to Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly letter (and Jeremy can match anyone for smart), both are right. The stimulus here and abroad is so massive, he says, and stock markets are so sensitive to massive stimulus, ‘we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals.’ He sees the S&P rising to 1000 or 1100 before the end of the year from today’s 900 (up from 666 in March) – based largely on false hopes. But that’s okay; false hopes are good, too. Whatever works. I’m not doing Jeremy justice. Read the whole letter for yourself. It’s long, so I’ll stop typing and yield the balance of my time.
Bullish John, Bearish John May 12, 2009January 3, 2017 BRAVE NEW WORLD Gary Diehl: ‘Wolfram Alpha that you wrote about last week has been up and down – technical issues, new launch, etc. I don’t see it as a Google killer….yet, but something you will definitely want to keep handy. A demo video can be found here.’ ☞ It is currently scheduled to go live May 18. I assume it will be overwhelmed with hits – but I expect to be one of them. BZ Gray Chang: ‘You suggested Boise warrants last fall. I thought it was a good idea, but I bought the stock instead, feeling that it would be more conservative. It dropped from $2 to 40 cents. I bought some more of the stock – dollar-cost averaging – using money I could afford to lose. It fell as low as 25 cents in March, and I was afraid I would indeed lose it, but I held on. Now it’s $2.46. I’ve never earned 6-fold on any investment before – maybe it’s time to sell some.’ ☞ I’d sell the shares you bought at $2 so you’re essentially playing with the house’s money. If we’re really, really lucky, three years from now . . . well, I don’t want to jinx it. The big question, of course, is whether this is a bear market rally – not just in Boise Paper stock, but overall – or whether the glimmers of hope and normalcy that have reappeared are the start of a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle that will mean we’ve seen the bottom. The truth, of course: I don’t know. In every recession but one since the Fed was created in 1913, my friend John Hook reminds me, the government increased fiscal and/or monetary stimulus and the economy recovered. (The one exception: 1930-1932.) We’re certainly doing that now – big-time, huge-time, monster-time. Based on a great many historical ratios and reference points, John, already up 32% for the year, remains strongly bullish. But John Mauldin leads off his May 11 letter: It has long been my contention that we are entering an extraordinary period of time in which using historical analogies to plot market behavior is going to become increasingly problematical. In short, the analogies, the past performance if you will, all break down because the underlying economic backdrop is unlike anything we have ever seen. It makes managing money and portfolio planning particularly challenging. Traditional asset management techniques just simply may not work. Buy and hope strategies may be particularly difficult to navigate. Part of the reason we are co challenged in our outlook is that we are experiencing a deleveraging on a scale in the world that is absolutely breath-taking in its scope. And to balance that, governments are going to have to issue massive amounts of sovereign debt to deal with their deficits. But who will buy it, and at what price? And in which currency? This week’s Outside the Box gives us some very basic data points that illustrate the challenge very well. But the problem is that even though we can see the challenge, it is not clear what the final outcome will be, other than stressful volatility as the market reacts. ☞ He then hands the microphone over to Niels Jensen, whose work he respects. The essence of Jensen’s message: ‘I cannot emphasize it strongly enough: The bull market of March-April 2009 is almost certainly a bear market rally but, as one of my partners pointed out the other day, NYSE saw four 20%+ rallies between 1929 and 1932. Bear market rallies can be extremely powerful and hence deceiving. . . . The problems are not over yet. Not by a long stretch. It will take longer than 18 months to unwind the excesses of the past 25 years.’
Morality, Prayer, and Cornerstone Therapeutics May 11, 2009March 15, 2017 THE MORAL HIGH GROUND The DC City Council voted 12 to 1 to recognize marriages performed in other states (like Iowa and now Maine). In case you missed Jon Stewart last week, here’s a quick clip of the one hold-out – former DC Mayor Marion Barry. Ah the righteous. Speaking of which, both Jon Stewart and Bill Press commented last week on Obama’s discontinuation of the well-publicized National Prayer Day services Bush conducted in the White House on each year . . . quoting Jesus: “And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray on the street corners to be seen by men. . . . But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.” Matthew 6:5-6. Oops. EUGENE ROBINSON MAKES THE CASE IN THE WASHINGTON POST Not Bishop Eugene Robinson, the white gay one, whom you might expect to be making a case for equality, but columnist Eugene Robinson, the black straight one, who does it beautifully here. Forward to your Congressperson and Senators? THE BEST STOCK CHRIS HAS EVER SEEN Remember CRTX written up here at $3.80 three weeks ago? It closed Friday at $7.28. Here’s Chris Brown’s latest thinking as offered to some of his investors. (I understand only the portion I’ve bolded.) Earnings will slack off moderately in Q2 due to generic competition on Hyflo, partially offset by continued growth in other marketed products, which will continue to grow. Deal with Italian firm will close in q3, causing essentially 100% dilution of shares. In exchange for this, company gets $15 mil in cash and $30 mil revenue stream from surfactant product which they feel they can grow considerably via market share gains (my estimate is perhaps to $60 mil over three years). Margins on surfactant revenue are unspecified but per conference call will be extremely high. Disappointing that CEO and one other executive have sold shares at $5.50 as part of the transaction. Company will be 51% owned by Italian firm after close of transaction. Company states they will provide updated guidance on rev/earnings at that time. Including the dilution, visibility for 2010 EPS is at least 80 cents per share per my estimate vs. single analyst estimate of $1.27. Given the run from $3.80, stock has certainly lost status as “most undervalued I’ve ever seen,” could conceivable trade down to mid-$6 range in coming weeks (8x my estimate of 2010 eps visibility). On the other hand, solid long-term revenue and earnings growth seem extremely likely once deal is consummated; for those with a long-term perspective, company is still attractive, as management team and business fundamentals are very strong. ☞ So I hold on.
A Simple Path to a Perpetually Rising Market May 8, 2009March 15, 2017 MUD Randy Hird: “I bought some GLDD at $2.30 when you last wrote about it a couple of months ago and sold half today at $4.65. That was a good deal.” ☞ GLDD reported encouraging results yesterday. I’m in it for the long haul. BOREF George Mokray: “Does this mean we’re gonna be rich?” ☞ Oh, God, I hope so – but no. It appears to have been digested from the Wheeltug™ website, and not to represent anything new. That said, Borealis is now valued at under $10 million (I know a guy who spent more than that on a boat), which makes for what I continue to believe is an attractive lottery ticket. All its technology (and iron ore deposits) could ultimately prove worthless. Indeed, the only prudent assumption is that they will. But if not? FIRING ARAB LINGUISTS Here we go again – but as my friend Aaron Belkin explains so nicely here, we may not have to. According to a forthcoming legal study, the President may have the authority to deep-six “Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell” without actually having to repeal the law. Polls show that a wide majority of Americans now feel that it weakens our military to fire gay and lesbian servicemen and women; and/or that firing them is unnecessary and unfair. The sooner we can get rid of this unfortunate policy . . . that President Clinton and President Carter are both on record wanting to can . . . along with all 10 of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary candidates . . . and that dozens of generals and admirals now oppose . . . the better. SHORT-SELLING Zac Bissonnette: “You will want to post this on your site.” ☞ “The uptick rule,” which reigned back in olden days (I remember those days), prevented anyone from shorting stocks when the previous trade had not been up from the last different price at which it had traded. If a stock had been $25 for a bunch of trades, up from $24.75, you could short all you wanted. But if the last different price at which it traded had been $25.25 – meaning that the stock was down a hair – your order to sell short would sit on the sidelines until you were able to sell at a higher price. The idea was to prevent massive “bear raids” that drove stock prices down relentlessly. There was some logic to it, but in today’s world of sophisticated computerized trading strategies, this would really muck a lot of things up. So before we race to do it, we should think twice. (And if it still seems like a good idea, maybe think a third time?) So here’s what Zac thought might amuse you: Mary L. Schapiro, Esq. Chairman Securities and Exchange Commission 100 F Street, NE Washington, DC 20549 rule-comments@sec.gov April 20, 2009 VIA EMAIL Re: File No. S7-08-09 Chairman Schapiro: On behalf of the great silent majority of American investors, I must point out that none of your proposals to reinstate the “uptick rule” goes far enough toward ensuring a perpetual rise in stock prices. Rather than tinkering with ad hoc half-measures, the SEC should be proposing the only practical, efficient and final solution to market volatility: a ban on stock selling altogether. A review of six time-honored truths makes this solution self-evident: Truth #1: Stock Market Crashes Are Caused By Stock Sales. It should be painfully obvious by now that the market’s decline since November 2007 was caused by stock selling. Not even pernicious speculators like George Soros would dispute this basic truth. Similarly, the market’s steep fall after several large bank failures and the deepening of the economic crisis in September 2008 also was the result of stock selling. We can safely conclude, therefore, that had stock sales been banned in 2007 the stock market crash of 2008-2009 never would have happened. Logically, it follows that banning stock sales would also prevent future market crashes. Truth # 2: True Investors Buy And Hold. Forever. Equities markets were never intended to be casinos where gamblers make wagers on or against a particular outcome. They are the mechanism for long-term investors to provide the capital that investment banks and brokerage firms need to grow profits. The only justifiable investment strategy from a policy standpoint, and the only strategy that any right-minded investor — as opposed to speculator — would employ, is the tried and true “buy and hold” strategy. Speculators trade; investors buy stocks and maintain them in their portfolios in perpetuity. As the Oracle of Omaha, Jimmy Buffett, has famously declared, an investor’s time horizon should be “forever.” Thus, there is no legitimate reason for an investor ever to sell a stock. Truth # 3: “Buy And Hold” Guarantees An Ever-Rising Market. A large and growing part of individual Americans’ wealth is composed of equities. If all investors were simply required to adhere to the “buy and hold” strategy as they should, the market would rise without the interruption of “corrections” and bear markets. As all buyers hold, and new entrants buy, stock prices would move upward in a linear trajectory. Extensive research studies by large brokerage firms have proven that, over time, stock prices rise. For example, an investor who had bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1932, when it was at 50, and sold it in November 2007, when it was over 14,000, would have realized a gain of approximately 28,000% — an annualized return of over 370% [actually: 7.8% — A.T.]. A ban on stock sales would ensure an ever-rising stock market and thus greater wealth and prosperity for all Americans. Stock sellers, by contrast, are interfering with the market’s natural tendency to ascend. Truth # 4: A Rising Market Makes People Happy. Studies have demonstrated a marked correlation between the level of the Dow, on the one hand, and consumer and voter sentiment, on the other. The most recent University of Michigan Survey showed improving consumer sentiment as the Dow rose sharply after the announcement of the proposed re-instatement of the uptick rule, the modification of mark-to-market accounting, and the Treasury’s plan to subsidize the sale of banks’ toxic assets with taxpayer leverage. Similarly, polls have shown that voters are often less happy when the stock market crashes. They are also less likely to re-elect incumbents, including those who appoint the heads of regulatory agencies. A rising market also pleases investment banks and other firms in the financial services industry, including those that routinely hire former heads of regulatory agencies. Enough said. Truth # 5: The SEC’s Job Is To Stay Out Of The Market When It’s Rising And Step In To Appropriately Alter The Rules When It’s Falling. The SEC’s regulatory mandate in a laissez-faire economy is two-fold. When stock prices are increasing, the SEC’s role is to ignore the market and market participants, thus allowing the invisible forces of the market to work their unregulated magic. When stock prices are decreasing, however, the SEC must intervene to stanch the loss of wealth that flows from a declining market. There is nothing “artificial” about selectively modifying rules that interfere with the market’s natural upward trajectory. Truth # 6: Stock Sellers Are Short On America. Speculators, short-sellers, long-sellers and other suspicious elements will spuriously claim that stock sales (and even short sales) are necessary for the efficient functioning of the market, and that asymmetrical transaction rules might actually exacerbate the problem by facilitating stock market bubbles. It suffices to note that these are the same people who caused the recent stock market crash (as well as every previous stock market crash in history). They are also the ones who sold stock in the wake of the 2 September 11th attacks, thereby profiting from the nation’s tragedy. It is no exaggeration to say that those who oppose a stock sale ban are advocating nothing less than a form of economic terrorism. I have no doubt that, as a patriotic American, you will see through the terrorists’ chicanery and lay the groundwork for a safe and prosperous America by banning stock sales. Benjamin N. Dover III ☞ Have a good weekend.
Two Bathrooms And Bowing to Rush May 7, 2009March 15, 2017 HOT WATER Richard McIntyre: “I have one of those hot water circulation pumps you wrote about yesterday. How much money they save depends on your water and energy costs, your water usage pattern, and how often and how long you set the thing to run. Pros: saves water, convenience. Cons: uses more energy to heat water (some heat is lost during circulation). If you have a set schedule and set the timer properly, I’m sure it will save some money. If you run it too much and use hot water at random times, it will save water but probably not money. There is one more advantage for some of us: it can prevent water lines from freezing. If you live in a cold climate and have any pipes that are prone to freezing, this is a major benefit.” ☞ But oops . . . Marissa Hendrickson: “As a pediatrician, I feel the need to rain on the watersavers’ parade just a little bit. People who live in old houses should probably avoid drinking or cooking with the water that has been sitting in the pipes all night, because it is more likely to contain lead leached from the pipes. Adults are less likely to be affected, but water used to mix baby formula or given to young children should be taken from the tap only after it runs all the way cold. And we should avoid the temptation to drink or cook with hot tap water, because hot water can leach more contaminants than cold. The Times addressed the cooking issue a while back.” ☞ So how about this . . . Doug Lindal: “I installed a Metlund Hot Water D’Mand system years ago in a rambling 3,100 square foot home and it works great without the need to endlessly circulate hot water (thus cooling it) through the water supply lines. It sends the hot water surging through the line only when you press a button. It still takes 30 seconds or so to get to the farthest faucet, but is 4-5 times quicker than standard plumbing systems.” ☞ And another, similar alternative. . . Bruce and Mimi: “Here is less expensive system. We are considering purchasing one after we extend our bedroom electrical line to, and install an outlet under, the sink. Reportedly, the earlier pumps had high noise levels but the current model is relatively quiet.” Dieter: “Looks like you were right with your gut feeling about the energy savings of recirculating pumps. They just keep heating the water over and over, while the energy loss happens in those 100 feet from the heater to the shower head.” ☞ So the big savings must come in the savings on water and sewer charges. Suzanne Foster: “If your readers want to save on their hot water, they should live in Baton Rouge in the summer. I shower with 100% cold water and it is still too hot.” COLD FUSION Dana Dlott (on Steve’s comment yesterday): “Apparently I never get invited to those meetings where we ‘establishment’ scientists get together to disrespect cold fusion. All I can say is that the moment two different labs do two experiments each and all four get the same result of excess energy, we will believe excess energy exists. Then the moment these researchers detect the correct number of neutrons, we will believe cold fusion exists. No amount of complaining or name calling (‘cowards’ and ‘backbiters’) will change our minds ever, but reproducible results will in a New York minute. The so-called ‘net gain of energy’ always results from measurements where you put something like 100 watts of energy into the apparatus and then sometimes get back 100.1. Imagine you have a miracle gasoline additive. You fill up your car with 20 gallons of gas and drive 400 miles. Then you fill it up again but with a one quarter ounce thimbleful of additive. Your next tank gets 399 miles so you say, ‘this experiment was a failure we don’t count it.’ Your next tank gets 401 miles and you say, ‘Miracle gas additive! One-quarter ounce gave us 1 mile extra, there’s 128 ounces in a gallon so that’s 512 mpg! We won’t need foreign oil ever again! This defies the known laws of chemistry and physics so the establishment is all wrong, and they are a bunch of cowards and backbiters!’ Well I need to see you put a gallon of this stuff in the tank and drive 512 miles. Andy, I know you live in a world where companies can produce nothing and have no sales or profits while their stock prices climb through the roof. But it doesn’t work that way in physics. No neutrons, no fusion. So sorry.” ☞ Well, what do I know? But the “60 Minutes” piece makes me think some interesting group of scientists think there’s something here worth pursuing. Wish them luck. MARRIAGE COUNSELING Jef: “Screen actor Michael Caine was interviewed. Asked about the ‘secret’ of his rare 36-year Hollywood marriage, Caine answered, ‘two bathrooms.’” LISTENING TOUR Rushshshshshhhhhhhhhhhhh . . . This is worth the 67 seconds to watch.
Hot Water Savers May 6, 2009March 15, 2017 Bob Fyfe: “Why Stephen Gilbert’s negative response to the Ladybug showerhead? If you do multitask while waiting for the shower to heat up, the Ladybug will allow you not to worry about wasting hot water. If you don’t multitask because you are afraid of wasting hot water, then this will allow you to. It seems like a winner either way. . . . Myself, I first turn on the hot water in the sink to wet and then later rinse my toothbrush. The water is still cold at this point but I figure I’m using the cold water that is in the hot water pipes, water that would be wasted when I was waiting for the shower to heat up. Then after shaving, I turn on the shower, do some push-ups, weigh myself and by then the water is almost hot enough to go straight in. If I were to install a Ladybug, perhaps I could do more push-ups without worrying about wasting hot water.” Karen Tiede: “Insulate the hot water pipes, if you have access to them. For me, that cut the ‘heat up’ time to a fraction of what it had been, and the insulation keeps the water hotter, too. I barely have time to do anything else while I wait. But in the meantime, I collect the cold water in a bucket and use it to flush the toilet. In the kitchen, the ‘heat up’ water gets collected in a pitcher and goes to the dog water bowl (ditto for ice cubes that freeze in a big lump). How about marking the taps so that you turn them to where they need to be to be the right temperature? I finally thought to do that in the drought two years ago and it saved a ton of adjusting.” Sandy Birnholtz: “I installed this in my bathroom ten years ago. (I have no financial interest). Doesn’t waste any water. Just circulates it, with a timer.” ☞ It’s a noiseless 33-watt pump you install under the sink furthest from your hot water heater that keeps the water in the entire hot water pipe warm all the time. I get why this would save water that would otherwise go down the drain while you waited for it to heat up. (They estimate that the average family of four will use 17,000 fewer gallons of water a year, paying $3.37 per 100 cubic feet in water and sewer charges. That comes to about $76 a year, on the off chance I’ve done the math right.) An environmental plus. And I certainly get why you’d save the time of waiting for the water to heat up. (Poor Bob won’t get to do any pushups.) A lifestyle plus. It’s less obvious to me why you’d save on the water heating cost. (The brochure includes a chart to show how all this works and how much you might save.) In the first place, you have the small cost of running the pump – maybe $10 a year. But you also have the water in a long pipe that is presumably at least somewhat less well insulated than your water heater. Can one of the engineers in the crowd baby-talk me through this? And speaking of engineers . . . ANOTHER COLD FUSION OPTIMIST Steve Rodriguez: “The Low-Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) detractors are on the wrong track. Perhaps they want to avoid the fate of the scientists who put their careers on the line with the 1989 announcement. Cowardice and backbiting operate in the scientific community as in many other sectors of society and politics. The fact remains that a net gain in energy has been measured repeatedly. Measurement error is the possible explanation that critics have offered. And measurement error is most improbable. It is only the difference in MAGNITUDE of the net energy gain from independent replications of the experiment that prevents wider acceptance of the phenomena. For those who can appreciate the improbability of measurement error, the LENR factor is an interesting alternative explanation, though it defies conventional quantum mechanics. It may well be that LENR is not occurring. But something IMPORTANT is going on.”
Kurzweil: the Movie And a Film About Hypocrisy May 5, 2009March 15, 2017 IT WASN’T MAGIC AFTER ALL Now here’s a surprise . . . magicians can’t actually walk through glass. SELL SOME AXP, WFC? More than double since March 12, if you haven’t already sold half, why not do so? If they just keep going up, as I hope they will, you’ll only half hate me. RAY KURZWEIL You know that guy I keep writing about? They made a movie about him! ‘Transcendent Man.’ Not yet out (just premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival), but there’s an awful lot to think about in this three-minute trailer. ‘OUTRAGE’ This Tribeca entry, by contrast, does go into limited release Friday. Did you know that the largely moderate, likeable Governor of Florida is gay? That would be none of anyone’s business, except that he’s used his influence to keep Florida the only state in the union to prohibit gay adoption, and also to write into the Florida Constitution a ban on civil unions. The thought is that he has taken those positions (and gotten engaged, at 52, weeks before being considered as a possible McCain running mate) to help dispel the rumors. The tragedy, of course, is that he is in most respects a good man . . . as are many of the other closeted, or formerly closeted, politicians covered in the film who vote, over and over and over, against the LGBT citizens they represent.
Magic! May 4, 2009March 15, 2017 PROGRESS REPORT Click here to see the impact of the President’s economic policies on your state. None of this is free; but a depression would have cost more. SKIP THIS IF YOU WANT TO BELIEVE IN MAGIC It turns out, it’s a trick! THIS, HOWEVER, IS MAGIC There can be no other explanation. Watch. (Thanks, Alan!) AND THIS IS MAGIC YOU WILL CONTROL As explained here (thanks Gary): The biggest internet revolution for a generation will be unveiled this month with the launch of software that will understand questions and give specific, tailored answers in a way that the web has never managed before. The new system, Wolfram Alpha, showcased at Harvard University in the US last week, takes the first step towards what many consider to be the internet’s Holy Grail – a global store of information that understands and responds to ordinary language in the same way a person does. . . . Wolfram Alpha will not only give a straight answer to questions such as “how high is Mount Everest?”, but it will also produce a neat page of related information – all properly sourced – such as geographical location and nearby towns, and other mountains, complete with graphs and charts. The real innovation, however, is in its ability to work things out “on the fly”, according to its British inventor, Dr Stephen Wolfram. If you ask it to compare the height of Mount Everest to the length of the Golden Gate Bridge, it will tell you. Or ask what the weather was like in London on the day John F Kennedy was assassinated, it will cross-check and provide the answer. Ask it about D sharp major, it will play the scale. Type in “10 flips for four heads” and it will guess that you need to know the probability of coin-tossing. If you want to know when the next solar eclipse over Chicago is, or the exact current location of the International Space Station, it can work it out. . . . ☞ I am old enough to remember The Reader’s Guide to Periodical Literature*. How far we have come.