The most consistently negative analyst on FMD upgraded it from ‘sell’ to ‘hold’ last night, increasing his price target from $32 to $43 and raising his earnings estimate for next year into the mid-$5 dollar range. My guru thinks he’s still way too bearish. But if some meaningful subset of those currently short FMD decided it is indeed a ‘hold’ rather than a sell – let alone the ‘strong buy’ others think it is – that would get the price up to $43 before you can say, ‘Andy must really want that salad spinner to be pushing this thing so hard.’
Keven: ‘I recall you recommending PCL if it ever found its way to 30 again; is that still a valid comment? Are you still a fan?’
☞ Let’s hope it doesn’t find its way to 30 again, though it certainly could. Yes, I do think PCL remains a good long-term holding. The trees are growing. World population – 6.6 billion now, an increase of more than 4 billion since I was born – will likely reach 9 billion by the time Harry Potter turns 50. A lot of those muggles will want houses.
I made the case for timber here four years ago. PCL was $26.50. At $42.50 yesterday, we’ve seen our investment grow at about 12% compounded – before taking into account $6 in quarterly dividends (currently, a 4% yield).
I’m not at all sure we’ll do as well over the next four years as the last four. But I still own some – again, for the very long term.
Really! The computer found the number I wanted, but I’m told an actual human will engage, as needed. The catch is that you have to endure a 15-second advert before you ask for your number and another before receiving it.
Jeff: ‘Just in order to keep up with CPI since 1980, gold would have to trade at $2200+ per ounce today. How does one calculate this? Where can you find records of inflation?’
☞ Here‘s one handy place to find it. A dime in 1947 had the buying power of a dollar today.
Quote of the Day
If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this.~Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M Post-It Notepads.
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