The most consistently negative analyst on FMD upgraded it from ‘sell’ to ‘hold’ last night, increasing his price target from $32 to $43 and raising his earnings estimate for next year into the mid-$5 dollar range. My guru thinks he’s still way too bearish. But if some meaningful subset of those currently short FMD decided it is indeed a ‘hold’ rather than a sell – let alone the ‘strong buy’ others think it is – that would get the price up to $43 before you can say, ‘Andy must really want that salad spinner to be pushing this thing so hard.’
Keven: ‘I recall you recommending PCL if it ever found its way to 30 again; is that still a valid comment? Are you still a fan?’
☞ Let’s hope it doesn’t find its way to 30 again, though it certainly could. Yes, I do think PCL remains a good long-term holding. The trees are growing. World population – 6.6 billion now, an increase of more than 4 billion since I was born – will likely reach 9 billion by the time Harry Potter turns 50. A lot of those muggles will want houses.
I made the case for timber here four years ago. PCL was $26.50. At $42.50 yesterday, we’ve seen our investment grow at about 12% compounded – before taking into account $6 in quarterly dividends (currently, a 4% yield).
I’m not at all sure we’ll do as well over the next four years as the last four. But I still own some – again, for the very long term.
Really! The computer found the number I wanted, but I’m told an actual human will engage, as needed. The catch is that you have to endure a 15-second advert before you ask for your number and another before receiving it.
Jeff: ‘Just in order to keep up with CPI since 1980, gold would have to trade at $2200+ per ounce today. How does one calculate this? Where can you find records of inflation?’
☞ Here‘s one handy place to find it. A dime in 1947 had the buying power of a dollar today.
Quote of the Day
It's unbelievable what happened, said Jack Brod, who has operated Empire Diamond and Gold Co. in New York's Empire State building for over 50 years. When gold was over $700 an ounce and silver over $40 everybody wanted to buy it. Today nobody does.~August 12, 1981 Deseret News
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