IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE WEATHER, LOOK OUT THE WINDOW
And what better window than a weatherman’s? Here is the real-time view from Bryan Norcross’s New York apartment. Here is his Miami view. (Here is a review of his Hurricane Almanac.) (One handy thing in hurricane season – this solar-powered flashlight, your buying one of which, as mentioned yesterday, could change a life in Africa.)
AND IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE WEATHER IN AFRICA
VIEWING THE NEXUS OF MONEY AND POLITICS
MY VIEW: LIGHTNING DOESN’T STRIKE TWICE
But how could I resist? Remember Aldabra – a company formed and funded to acquire something (but nothing specific), and warrants we bought at anywhere from 70 cents down to 38 cents each – now $3.88? (Aldabra bought Great Lakes Dredge and Dock; the symbol of the company is now GLDD.)
Well, HAPN is the symbol of another such company, this one trading at around $5.80, with warrants (HAPNW) trading at around 32 cents each. The warrants give you the right to buy the underlying stock for $5 any time in the next four years or so – but only if the company succeeds in acquiring something in the next four months. They are close to doing that, but the first risk is that you lose everything if they fail. With money I can afford to lose, I’ve taken that risk, because the people working on the deal have a very strong incentive not to fail.
The second risk is that, even if they succeed in completing their acquisition, the company they are acquiring, InfuSystem, may do badly, so again the warrants would be worthless. But if the stock stayed at $5.80, you’d have a double, and if it ever got to $8.50, you’d make ten times your money. So – if you can truly afford risks like these – take a look at their recent quarterly report and, perhaps, call your deep discount broker. (At Ameritrade, the commission for buying 50,000 warrants could be as little as $8. Another broker might charge $1,000.)
I assume this bet will fail – what are the chances of doing well with two of these in a row! But . . . as that assumption comes straight from the Don’t Walk Under Ladders school of financial analysis . . . I took the plunge anyway. (And, yes, I’m told: Lightning sometimes does strike the same place twice. Well, for example, lightning rods.)
Have a great Memorial Day weekend!
Quote of the Day
Market economics as currently practiced often ... includes only what's countable, not what counts.~Rocky Mountain Institute
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