The Inversion June 2, 2019June 2, 2019 I unfairly trashed Margaret Sanger last week . . . see below and please accept my apology . . . but first . . . A money guy I know: “I can’t stop looking at Bloomberg’s 1963-2019 chart that shows the 8 times that the yield-curve has inverted. EACH time has seen a recession or significant downturn… And most of the time, many prognosticators said ‘this time is different.’ I don’t think it is — not with the trade war escalating and general geo-political scene deteriorating. I have ZERO confidence in the Trump admin’s ability to deal with a serious economic issue; if anything, they are likely to make anything worse than it otherwise would have been. I know that the inversion is very small as of now, but given how low rates are, the signal is probably valid even here.” → Normally, investors demand a higher interest rate the longer they have to up their money. So the Treasury usually has to pay more for 10-year money than 3-month money. But that’s inverted: as of Friday, the 3-month T-bill was yielding MORE than the 10-year note. Kris McCormack: “The Trump Administration — helping Putin win in so many ways.” (Kris links to the Wall Street Journal: A Surprise Winner From the U.S.-China Trade Spat: Russian Soybean Farmers.) Judy, Texas Grandmother and Proud Liberal: “Thanks for the tip on Michael Lewis’ podcast. You are right – BEST PODCAST EVER! But, Carl? I really wish he would talk to someone who has had an abortion and ask them why they did it. Until he’s done so, he can never understand what goes into making such a decision.” And now . . . Artie: “I am certainly not a student, let alone a scholar, when it comes to the work of Margaret Sanger; but your post threw me for a loop. So I did what any good time-challenged person would when their long held, but not firmly grounded, beliefs are questioned. I went to Wikipedia. As I read it, Sanger was much more a kindred spirit than anyone marching around in a MAGA hat. I don’t doubt that you quoted something that can be found on the internet; I just question your willingness to take it as authoritative. If not, I do suggest the wikipedia entry.” Douglas Symes: “Every so often you seem to swallow some ‘alternative facts’ hook, line and sinker. The last time I took you to task about this was 16 years ago over Noam Chomsky. This time it is Jefferis Kent Peterson (JKP), an anti-abortion activist who you didn’t bother to fact-check on the most basic of levels. Check out Planned Parenthood’s fact sheet, Opposition Claims About Margaret Sanger.” → I screwed up.