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Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

Watch And Save

August 18, 2020August 18, 2020

I was so excited yesterday by the $506 million judgment that had nothing directly to do with PRKR but that still, in my mind, boded well (see how easily I get excited?), I forgot to insert the link in:  << COVID UPDATE . . . the possible effects after you recover.  It’s hard to disagree with the final paragraph. >>



And now, just a day later, I’m excited by this invitation to attend WheelTug Test Drive.  If you own BOREF, you’ll want to click that link.  In my case, it represents 21 years of waiting. (Were you even alive when I wrote that first post?)

Of course, there’s still a ton that could go wrong.  Like: not getting FAA approval.  (Because WheelTug is not “flight-critical” in the way a new engine or wing is, experts I’ve checked with think the odds of approval are good.)  Or who knows what else?

One thing for certain (in my view): the company won’t ever see lease payments of $3.5 million per airplane each year, as its 50% share of the “$7 million annual savings” referenced in the invitation.

But you know what?  If they can net $100,000 profit per plane each year — far less than they hope to — and if a few years from now 5,000 aircraft are backing out from the gate without having to wait for a tug, thanks to WheelTug . . . and boarding and deplaning from both the front AND rear doors by being able to park parallel to the gate, thanks to WheelTug . . . well, then, they would at that point be netting $500 million a year.

If that’s worth 8 times earnings, the valuation would then be $4 billion.  For BOREF, that means about $2 billion in value just from its share of WheelTug.  Plus whatever other value its intellectual property may have.  And what if they could net $200,000 per plane each year?  On 10,000 aircraft?

At yesterday’s $4.80 close, with 5 million shares outstanding, BOREF was valued at $24 million.  If the stock shot up to $20, it would still be valued at only $100 million — just 5% of the $2 billion fantasized above.

My point?  We’ve come this far . . . with money we can truly afford to lose.  I wouldn’t rush to turn in my lottery ticket just yet.  The stock could still go to zero, for sure; but I’m encouraged by the progress.



And now:

Watch Roger Federer square off against . . . Roger Federer.  Computing power has come a long way since Pong.



Watch the Convention tonight!  Check out the schedule.



Save the children from Q-Anon.



Save us all from cancel culture — Bill Maher is so right, as always.



Save America from thuggish autocracy.



Harry Harrison:  “I worked for 33 years as a mail carrier. In the midst of the current Trump assault on democracy, no one has mentioned the Postal Inspectors Service. Remember hearing about how there were secret crawl spaces and peepholes to spy on mail employees possible illegal behavior? Well, there were!!!  And still are!!!  It was made known there were severe penalties for invading the sanctity of the mail they really said sanctity). It was a crime to interfere in the timely delivery of the mail. Why the hell did these people ever exist if they just have no role in decrying what Trump is doing? Maybe Dems can find retired Postal Inspectors free to spill their guts about this criminal conduct.”

 

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