I’m taking a day off, but wanted to note that TXCO jumped to $6.56 yesterday, from $4.50 when suggested here February 16, 2004.
I sold half mine.
Back tomorrow . . .
11am EST: Well, or back now with second thoughts. I think I was dumb to sell half yesterday. The guy who brought this one to my attention in the first place told me he was selling a lot of his — and I think he may have been dumb also. My thinking had been simply that a 45% gain in a year and a half isn’t terrible, and this stock had been such a laggard in its group . . . well, “sell on the news,” and all that.
But look at the news: “NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Exploration Co. of Delaware Inc. ran to a fresh 52-week high Wednesday on news that the company sold off about 20 percent of its production assets in the Maverick Basin for $80 million.”
This tells me that someone who actually knows something about oil thought 20% of TXCO’s assets were worth more than $80 million (if not, why pay $80 million?) — so the 80% TXCO has left may be worth more than $320 million. Yet at the current $7.50+ share price (up a buck dollar from where I sold half yesterday), the company is valued at less than $250 million (including its long-term debt).
Point being, I hope you didn’t sell half first thing this morning — because if you waited even an hour or so you would have made more like 65% than 45%. And I am not rushing to sell the rest.
Back to my day off.
Quote of the Day
Market economics as currently practiced often ... includes only what's countable, not what counts.~Rocky Mountain Institute
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