Electoral-vote.com has us up 257-247, with Florida tied and New Mexico going to Bush (both will go to Kerry, as argued yesterday). Ignore the Gallup poll – as I think more and more people will come to do after this election is over – and pay more attention to Zogby, which has Kerry trending up:

Fourteen days before the presidential election, Senator John Kerry and President Bush are back in a dead-heat race for the White House at 45% apiece, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1211 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 15-17, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

And notice two things. First, at 45-45, that leaves an awful lot of undecided (and Nader) voters. Well, in swing states, the idealistic, bright Naderites are simply not going to give the world four more years of Bush. And undecided voters break heavily against the incumbent – so what appears to be 45-45 may well be 53-47 or 52-48. Second, this was a poll of likely voters. The turnout among ‘unlikely’ Kerry voters, and newly registered voters, will be huge. That will widen the margin.


John Kerry said ‘Orwellian’ and 10 million debate viewers, who had read and remembered 1984, watched the reference sail over the heads of 50 million more. But with every Clean Skies Act that dirties the air and each massive tax cut for the rich ‘by far, the vast majority’ of which goes ‘to people at the bottom of the economic ladder,’ it becomes increasingly urgent to find that tattered old copy from high school and re-read it.

All this comes to mind as I read this Republican fund-raising appeal.

The appeal follows, but first you might want to review this video, which I have posted before, to refresh your memory on just one aspect of the Republican vote-suppression in Florida last time. Remember that in the end Bush was supposed to have won Florida by 537 votes . . . so the 50,000 in the video (not to mention tens of thousands of others) were not trivial to the outcome.


OK. Seen the video? Now read this current Republican fundraising appeal:

Dear Max,

You have probably never heard my name. I’m one of many people who work tirelessly1 behind the scenes on behalf of the President’s campaign. I make sure we carefully follow the law in everything we do.

In 2000, I was in Florida for the recount and remember the attacks we had to fend off in order to protect the result of a fair election from the efforts to steal it. If we had not had the support of many, many generous individuals who made contributions to our recount effort, we would not have been successful. We must start now to make sure we have the resources to defend the outcome of this election. Will you help me by making a donation to our General Election Legal and Compliance Account?


The election of 2000 was difficult not just for the campaigns but for our country. Florida became the center of a battle for our Democracy. This year, I am concerned about similar efforts by those who would try to adjust the outcome of the election after the polls have closed. This year we may face similar fights not just in Florida, but in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico and other critical states.

By raising money for our GELAC fund, we will prepare early for any unforeseen events that may affect the outcome of the election. We will ensure that we are able to prevent any attempt to alter the outcome of the vote and any effort to suppress the voice of the voters.


I have spent many years in politics and have seen efforts to subvert the vote take many forms – from the manipulation of polling locations to the efforts we saw in Florida to make an end run around the state Constitution and the Constitution of the United States. Frankly, I am very tired3, and hope we will not have to fight off more attacks on the people’s will4. The outcome of the election should be decided by voters not lawyers! But I suspect we will see more efforts by those who lost the election to change the rules so they can win.

With your help, we will ensure this does not happen.


I know you have been asked for donations a lot, and I, too, have given again and again. But I’ll be making one more contribution – and I ask you to join me. Give all that you can, so if we have to fight for Florida, or any other state, we will have what we need to win.


Tom Josefiak
General Counsel
Bush-Cheney 04, Inc.

1No one in a fundraising appeal, whether Republican or Democrat, ever works anything but tirelessly.

2Altered slightly from the original.

3But this will not stop him from working tirelessly.

4The people’s will? Didn’t half a million more people vote for Gore than for Bush last time?


This post by former Clinton White Communications Director Ann Lewis notes how your tax dollars are being spent to help train Iraqi women in democracy – by contracting with a U.S. outfit that opposes women’s rights.


Well, people bought more than $1 billion worth of Google stock yesterday, albeit from people who sold more than $1 billion worth . . . and because the buyers felt more urgency to buy than the sellers felt to sell, the stock closed up $5 at $149.

I attribute the buying frenzy to my column yesterday. Word is out just how bad I am at shorting stocks. (I’m usually way too early.)

But the game is far from over, and if/when GOOG gets up around $160 or $180 (Thursday?), I may buy some more puts, at what would then be a much better price.


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