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Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

One Stock; Four Funds; Everything

April 28, 2011March 24, 2017

AMRN

So it was reported that the company has retained Lazard to pursue a sale for $2 billion or more – which would be about $16 a share or more. With the stock more than doubling in a month, and up from its 52-week low of $1.63, Guru understands why there would be lots of profit-taking here but holds out hope for the “or more” part of that report. Based on his comments, I’d assign a 10% chance to some unpleasant surprise; 40% to a sale around $16; 50% to a sale at a better price. No harm selling half so that from then on you’re playing with “the house’s money.” But if these are the true odds (as no one can ever know), they would argue for hanging on to at least half.

FORMULA INVESTING

I had lunch with Joel Greenblatt, whose four Formula Investing mutual funds I have recommended since their recent inception – FVVAX, FNSAX, FNVAX, and FNAAX. (Because they are not particularly tax efficient, they’re best suited for tax-deferred retirement accounts.) In addition to the case I make for them in the new edition of my investment guide, I learned something else: Joel has a talented team working full time to compile the underlying data his computer then crunches. He does this because, when examining the data he had been purchasing from a third party (and that other value-weighted index funds purchase), he found that his team could do it better, giving his funds yet another edge.

PARADIGM SHIFT

Everyone’s reading Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly letter, which he summarizes, “The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.” That is actually just the “summary of the summary.” Given Jeremy’s brilliance and track record, it’s well worth the click (and free registration).

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"Money is a singular thing. It ranks with love as man’s greatest source of joy. And with death as his greatest source of anxiety. Over all history it has oppressed nearly all people in one of two ways: either it has been abundant and very unreliable, or reliable and very scarce."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty

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