So it was reported that the company has retained Lazard to pursue a sale for $2 billion or more – which would be about $16 a share or more. With the stock more than doubling in a month, and up from its 52-week low of $1.63, Guru understands why there would be lots of profit-taking here but holds out hope for the “or more” part of that report. Based on his comments, I’d assign a 10% chance to some unpleasant surprise; 40% to a sale around $16; 50% to a sale at a better price. No harm selling half so that from then on you’re playing with “the house’s money.” But if these are the true odds (as no one can ever know), they would argue for hanging on to at least half.
I had lunch with Joel Greenblatt, whose four Formula Investing mutual funds I have recommended since their recent inception – FVVAX, FNSAX, FNVAX, and FNAAX. (Because they are not particularly tax efficient, they’re best suited for tax-deferred retirement accounts.) In addition to the case I make for them in the new edition of my investment guide, I learned something else: Joel has a talented team working full time to compile the underlying data his computer then crunches. He does this because, when examining the data he had been purchasing from a third party (and that other value-weighted index funds purchase), he found that his team could do it better, giving his funds yet another edge.
Everyone’s reading Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly letter, which he summarizes, “The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.” That is actually just the “summary of the summary.” Given Jeremy’s brilliance and track record, it’s well worth the click (and free registration).
Quote of the Day
The people who sustain the worst losses are usually the ones who overreach. And it's not necessary: steady, moderate gains will get you where you want to go.~John Train
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