10:03 am — I click on to www.urbanfetch.com.
10:07 am — I click SEND.
10:57 am — Doorbell rings.
To wit: six fresh bagels, a quarter pound of smoked salmon, a quart of milk, a pint of Ben & Jerry’s cherry Garcia frozen yogurt. Plus, if I had wanted it, shaving cream, the newspaper, a movie rental to watch tonight, a book or CD, a new telephone answering machine — tons of stuff.
Free delivery within an hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. No tipping allowed.
The implications are . . . staggering.
I may never leave the house again.
(It’s only in New York and London so far — mostly by bike in New York and motorcycle in London. Privately held.)
This past December, with Amazon trading near its $113 all-time high, J.P. Morgan Securities initiated coverage with a “buy” rating. Twelve-month target: $160. Friday, Amazon closed at $33 and change. There is the natural temptation to buy it. It’s a great brand; it delights its customers with good service; and the stock is on sale at 70% off the price J.P. Morgan thought was already cheap. Buying it here may prove wise. Certainly wiser than at $113. But note that, at 33 and change, Amazon is still being valued at $12 billion, which in the old days was considered a lot of money. Even today, that’s 33% more than the valuation of Federal Express, which, like Amazon has a great brand name and can be expected to share in the e-commerce boom — and unlike Amazon, actually makes a profit. (A large one, in fact.) I am no longer short Amazon. There is a chance it has a lot further to fall — if it fell by another two-thirds, it would still be valued at more than the country’s largest airline. But there’s also a chance that 10 years from now it could actually be worth what J.P. Morgan predicted for six months from now. And I wish it well.
Quote of the Day
Probably the greatest harm done by vast wealth is the harm that we of moderate means do ourselves when we let the vices of envy and hatred enter deep into our own natures.~Teddy Roosevelt, 1902
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