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Andrew Tobias

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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

Macroeconomics and Your Money

April 8, 2003March 25, 2012

In reponse to yesterday’s column, Dr. Jim A. writes: “You are getting way too political. Get back to investing and money management issues, which I thought was the purpose of the website.”

The purpose of the website is anybody’s guess, but the purpose of yesterday’s column (which I was thinking of making more explicit today even before receiving Jim’s e-mail) was to say, in effect . . .

Look. It’s great the war is going relatively well. (There is much to criticize about how we got into this war; but anyone would have to admit it could have gone much worse than it has so far, and we are all grateful for that.) But when we win it and the market jumps, as it may, don’t get suckered into thinking the good old days are back. The market, in my view, is not cheap here, and the economic prospects are not terribly good.

I hope I’m wrong. But massive budget deficits of the type described yesterday are not the stuff of long-term prosperity. (Modest budget deficits, that grow the national debt at a slower rate than the economy as a whole, are not necessarily bad. So long as the debt grows more slowly than GDP, it shrinks relative to the economy as a whole.) So the outlook for the stock market over the next few years is not terribly bright, either.

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"Guys, just remember: if you get real lucky, if you make a lot of money, if you go out and buy a lot of stuff, it's gonna break. You got your biggest, fanciest mansion in the world. It has air conditioning. It has a pool. Just think of all the pumps that are going to go out. Or go to a yacht basin any place in the world. Nobody is smiling and I'll tell you why: something broke that morning. The generator's out, the microwave oven doesn't work, the cook's gay. Things just don't mean happiness."

Ross Perot to Harvard B-School students, quoted in Forbes

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