Well, you win some and you lose some. As expected (by the market – not by my guru), the FDA approved Dendreon’s application. Provenge – which is projected to cost $100,000 a year and said to add 4 months to a late-stage prostate cancer patient’s life – can now, at last be marketed.

Dendreon stock, which had climbed from $2.50 to $40 in anticipation of this, ended the day at $51, up around 11. All my precious little contrarian puts – and yours, if you took this bet – went effectively to zero.

Guru writes: “Politics trumped science and has now saddled the healthcare system with an annual $10 billion bill for a placebo. It’s the first time in my career that the FDA caved to popular demand.”

I hope he’s wrong. (He does, too.) If the drug really works, and really extends life, then the only question is how much of it we can afford.

But guru believes further studies will eventually show Provenge to have no effect.

Meanwhile, I’m not going to fling myself from a parapet – not least because the DCTH he recommended a few months ago has now nearly tripled.

But I am going to take the rest of the day off. I just wanted to be sure to tell you the coin-flip turned up heads, and commiserate with any of you joined me in betting against it.


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