Ah, Liberation Day! Things Not To Sell April 4, 2025April 4, 2025 We’ve been under Vietnam’s thumb for so long. It’s about time we stood up for ourselves and made our own sneakers. Which will give the laid-off cancer researchers something to do. Drew W.: “The thing about people with his brand of personality disorder is that it can be really hard to tell when he’s lying, when he’s come to believe his lies, when he’s psychotic, or when he’s just an idiot.” Bob F.: “The tariff rates were calculated based on the trade deficit? Trade deficit divided by trade volume? This is crazy! This has to be worse than most people could have envisioned.” Kevin R.: “Well, now the economists and bankers know what the scientists and doctors felt like when he told everyone to inject bleach to ward off COVID.” Thomas Friedman: Trump Just Bet the Farm — our farm. . . . If Trump turns out to be right — that we’ll still enjoy the economic benefits and stability we’ve had for nearly a century even if America suddenly shifts from a benign hegemon to a predator, from the world’s most important proponent of free trade to a global tariffing giant, from the protector of the European Union to telling Europe it’s on its own and from a defender of science to a country that forces out a top vaccine specialist like Dr. Peter Marks for refusing to go along with quack medicine — I will stand corrected. But if Trump turns out to be wrong, he will have sown the wind, and we as a nation will reap the whirlwind. But so, too, will the rest of the world. And I can tell you, the world is worried. When I was in China last week, more than a few people asked me if Trump was launching a “cultural revolution” the way that Mao did. Mao’s lasted 10 years — from 1966 to 1976 — and it wrecked the whole economy after he instructed his party’s youth to destroy the bureaucrats that he thought were opposing him. If the Republican Congress wants to save the country and the world, it had better find its spine really fast. Putin and Xi are winning. Big time. Tomorrow, April 5, will be the single biggest day of protests since Trump retook office, and if you haven’t found a Hands Off! event to be part of, you can click here to join one near you. THINGS NOT TO SELL A couple of weeks ago, I suggested buying puts on the broad market indexes — the Dow (DIA) or the S&P (SPY) or NASDAQ (QQQ). I hope they expire worthless because — somehow, miraculously — this ends well. But I fear they may grow ever more valuable. Most of my nutty speculations are getting killed, but, for now, at least, my two least nutty and speculative, CHRB and BKUTK, remain strong (the former, because it promises to pay 53 cents a quarter until August of next year when it will be redeemed at $25 . . . though in this crazy world, who knows? . . . the latter, because it is a very conservatively run community bank with a loyal customer and investor base selling for 7 times earnings and less than half its book value). As to the rest (or at least the ones that come to mind) . . . I haven’t sold my CNF, because its business is in China, which may do relatively better than the U.S. in the years to come, if and as they come to be seen as the more stable, reliable trading partner — and sells at less than 3 times earnings. (In fact, a long-standing order I had in to buy yet a little more at 71 cents “good til canceled” was executed this morning — with money I could truly afford to lose.) I haven’t sold my PRKR, because none of what’s going on should affect the outcome of its several patent-infringement claims. So it remains as speculative as ever — heads it’s a quintuple or ten-tuple, tails it’s zero. Or my ANIX (if its cancer treatments prove effective — however long that shot may be — it will surely be worth billions, not today’s $80 million) or my OPRT or SQNS or UNIT or, yes, even my by-now-longest-of-long shots BOREF (not least because no brokerage firm I know of currently accepts orders for it). Needless to say, when things look really bleak and people are panicking, it’s a better time to buy than to sell. And today may be the bottom. But I can see “Dow 26,000” just as easily as a snap back to good times. I hope I’m wrong!
Trade Wars And Real War April 3, 2025 Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman: Trump Goes Crazy on Trade The EU, like the United States, has generally low tariffs; the average tariff it charges on US goods is less than 3 percent. So where does [Trump’s] 39 percent number come from? I have no idea. Many people speculated that Trump would count value-added taxes as tariffs, even though they aren’t — European producers selling to the EU market pay the same VAT as US producers, so it doesn’t discriminate and therefore isn’t protectionist. But even if you get that wrong, EU VAT rates are in the vicinity of 20 percent, so you still can’t get anywhere close to 39 percent. . . . [H]aving once claimed that Europe charges tariffs more than 10 times as high as reality, Trump will never drop that claim. I don’t know how many people noticed, but he’s still claiming that we’re subsidizing Canada by $200 billion a year. Aside from the basic mistake of claiming that a Canadian trade surplus means that we’re somehow subsidizing Canada, he’s inflating the actual trade surplus by a factor of three. Many, many people have pointed out the error, but Trump is sticking with it, the same way Musk is sticking with the millions of dead Social Security beneficiaries thing. If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them. It’s one thing to want to bring critical semiconductor manufacturing back to America (especially now that we have no allies) — that was called Biden’s bi-partisan CHIPs Act. It’s quite another to start a global trade war that makes everybody hate us and could set off a global recession or worse. (And are there really 100 million Americans looking for work making t-shirts, sneakers, and all the other low-wage stuff we import? Aren’t we in the midst of deporting the few who might?) And then there’s Iran — and Greenland. Malcolm Nance thinks we’re going to war. If you thought things were bad in the American national security sphere in the last 48 hours, be prepared for another dramatic shift in US policy that will affect every one of you reading this. Apparently, the Trump regime is preparing for two major blows to US foreign policy. They are making it clear they intend to invade and seize Greenland and they are also silently preparing to attack Iran with strategic bombers. . . . He sees oil “quite possibly topping the $150 a barrel mark.” “Worse, is that the Iranian people who have been desperate to break off the chains of the regime and embrace democracy would likely see an American Israeli attack as a provocation. At attack would rally around the regime and set back a decade’s work fostering democracy.” Let’s hope Nance is wrong. Or that it all somehow works out well. When has a Trump enterprise ever failed?
Give It Up For Cory! April 2, 2025 I’m sure you know all about it by now, but here is the interview Senator Booker gave after his record-breaking, heroic, historic 25+ hour speech. How he was still coherent, I can’t imagine. This is the sort of extra mile (and then some!) we are now all called upon to go . . . which is why there are now more than 1,000 demonstrations planned for April 5, and why I — who almost never march or demonstrate — will be at one of them. Click here to choose yours! Bring friends! Text from friends who have already sold their New York home and moved to Canada: We’ve heard rumblings about iPhones being searched with potentially negative consequences. I now have first-hand knowledge of such an incident. We just had dinner with our upstairs neighbors. Wonderful people. A colleague of the wife, a 60-year-old White Montreal Physician was headed to a medical conference in NYC. The U.S. Immigration agent was asking to see people’s cell phones. In the Dr.’s phone he found statements critical of the Trump administration. The physician was turned away and not allowed to enter the U.S. to attend his conference. Putin is winning. But in the end, the American people won’t stand for it. Carl sent me a gloating message about the two Republican special election wins in Florida. But in the dark red districts Trump carried by margins of 37% and 30% five months ago, his two candidates won by less than half as much — a huge 15-point swing our way. And in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, our 55/45 win was 11 points better than the 1% by which Trump won the state five months ago — despite the $26 million Musk poured in last month. Carl is right we were too woke . . . or at least were painted that way. (I don’t know of a single Dem in the House or Senate who wanted literally to defund the police, let alone a majority of us. Or a single Dem who thinks “men should be allowed to compete in women’s sports,” as he oversimplifies it . . . though I do know lots of people who think it should be left up to coaches and local communities to decide what’s fair and makes sense — just as I think Musk’s daughter’s gender-affirming care decisions should be hers and her parents’ and doctors’ rather than Trump’s.) And he is right that the Southern border was in crisis. (In part, this was because the bi-partisan comprehensive immigration reform that passed the Senate 68-32 — and would have passed the House and been signed into law — was denied a vote on the House floor by the Republican speaker in 2013 . . . and in part because the lasting bipartisan legislative solution Biden got took too long to get — but that was then scuttled by Trump so he could use it as a campaign issue.) But how about democracy itself? And Social Security? And veteran’s benefits? And 80 years of the norms-based world order we built? And NATO? And the separation of powers? Does Carl worry about any of that? How about $500 million of food that was already on its way to starving babies? And putting our Defense Department in the hands of a weekend Fox News host with a drinking problem? How about crippling our efforts to fight bird flu and Alzheimer’s? And pardoning violent January 6th rioters, many of whom were sentenced by Trump-appointed judges? The list is practically endless. Yes, there’s inflation . . . but does Carl see signs of its subsiding? And the economy . . . but has he seen the Consumer Confidence Index? An economy that five months ago was “the envy of the world” faces stagflation. And the deficit . . . but (and I will leave you with this, if you missed it yesterday) the DOGE blood baths could actually increase the deficit! See you Saturday at one of the 1,000+ rallies. Cory Booker is an American hero.
How-Does-This-End Bumper Stickers March 31, 2025 The symbolism of the Voice of America being silenced for the first time in 83 years is both stark and heartbreaking. We can’t have four more years of this — let alone eight. We must return to being the world’s good guy — its hope — not its bombastic bully. To normalcy. All it would take — though we’re clearly not there yet — is 17 Republican senators and 4 House members willing to step up. Granted, a third impeachment seems as likely as tapping a Fox News host with a drinking problem to run the Department of Defense. Even so, those of us who hate what’s happening should make our feelings known. If you can’t bear to sell your Tesla for pennies on the dollar, you could at least affix some bumper stickers to plant the idea. Likewise for whatever other make and model you drive: _________________________ I VOTED FOR TRUMP, NOT PUTIN — IMPEACH! NATO, NOT MOSCOW — IMPEACH! TARIFFS = NATIONAL SALES TAX — IMPEACH! THIS IS NOT WHO WE ARE — IMPEACH! SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY — IMPEACH! GROUP CHAT WAR PLANS? IMPEACH! JAN 6 PARDONS? IMPEACH! END THE CHAOS — IMPEACH! NO DICTATOR HERE — IMPEACH! BULLY PULPIT, NOT +ACTUAL+ BULLY — IMPEACH! SAVE MY 401k — IMPEACH! THIS IS NOT NORMAL — IMPEACH! I ♥ DEMOCRACY — IMPEACH! [With an American flag to the left and right of each.] ____________________________ If it ever did come to impeachment, Vance would have to be included. Which would leave us with Mike Johnson. But at least he’s no megalomaniac. To be clear: I’m not expecting any of this to happen. But bumper stickers on millions of cars would drive home the point: this has to change! If not by impeachment, then by voting in a Democratic majority at the earliest possible moment. MUST-READ BONUS Why DOGE Could Actually Increase the Deficit
Give It Up For George W. Bush March 31, 2025 Here’s what he had to say in 2011. One minute. Worth watching and sharing. Also . . . As physicians, we’re pleading with you to get angry. You heard them: Doctors’ orders. Finally, Fareed Zakaria: Don’t fall for Russian propaganda — even when it comes from the U.S. Putin is on the wrong side of history, freedom and human aspirations. The tragedy is that the United States appears to have now joined his side. Join Indivisible! Attend one of 600 events Saturday! I plan to — and I never do stuff like that. Spread DIS-disinformation!
It’s Just Good Business March 29, 2025 Conservative Andrew Sullivan’s scathing “Two Perfect Months” is a must-read. Among so much else: It is becoming clearer and clearer that Trump’s aim for Ukraine is to divide it between him and his closest ally, Putin. . . . Anyone who believed Trump is merely trying to get a workable peace now looks stupid. He just wants to share in the Ukraine spoils Putin secured by invasion. As I say, a must-read. It begins “in all fairness” by crediting Trump with securing the Southern border (he gives Biden some credit, too) . . . which leads into today’s topic today — undocumented immigrants. Everyone agrees that undocumented criminals should be deported; but what of the 99.9% who are not murderers, rapists, terrorists or drug-dealing cat-eating gang members? Consider: Undocumented Immigrants Pay Higher Tax Rates Than Many Major Corporations In 2022 America’s 10.9 million undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in taxes. It is estimated that $40 to $137 billion of additional revenue could be generated each year if these people were granted work authorization. [A] less exploitable workforce would be paid higher wages (thus pay more taxes) and tax compliance by both employers and employees would increase. According to ProPublica’s released tax data from the 400 highest-income individuals, undocumented immigrants paid a higher effective tax rate than five of the richest Americans. Undocumented immigrants also paid a higher effective tax rate than 55 mega corporations. . . . These corporations had a combined pre-tax income of nearly $200 billion but paid just $3.7 billion in federal income tax, 90% less than undocumented immigrants. Undocumented Immigrants [account for] 1-in-7 construction workers, 1-in-8 agriculture workers, and 1-in-14 hospital workers. Deporting millions of undocumented workers would shrink the economy by $1.1 to $1.7 trillion, a more devastating contraction than what happened during the 2008 financial crisis. So now that we’ve sealed the border, why not grant those who are here work permits and a pathway to citizenship? It’s just good business. > We need their labor. > We need their taxes. > Their lower-than-average crime rate would lower our national averages. > And, argues Karla Cornejo Villavicencio, “Immigrants can be our secret weapon in the fight against authoritarianism. Immigrants love America in a way that America needs to be loved if it is going to survive.” BONUS #1 I’m so proud of Rufus Gifford, our former Ambassador to Denmark. Watch the first few minutes: “This is shameful”: Trump sows animosity and mistrust abroad, degrading Americans in the process. BONUS #2 Woodward on Trump. If you don’t have 24 minutes to watch (16 at 1.5X), the key takeaways are Trump’s view that “trade is bad” . . . that “everything is mine” . . . that “fear” is his superpower.
Make Russia Great Again March 27, 2025March 29, 2025 Take one minute to review the nice things we’ve been doing for Putin. We are treating our traditional allies as adversaries and rapidly becoming the world’s “bad guy” — see, e.g., U.S. to End Vaccine Funds for Poor Countries* — while our leader has exchanged love letters with the murderous dictator of North Korea and favored Russia’s murderous dictator over the FBI. This strikes me as a huge, horrible, existential sort of thing, worthy of a larger font. OPRT I already had a lot, but after reading today’s press release, I bought more. CLIMATE Tomorrow, “Al Gore delivers his most urgent climate presentation yet. And you don’t have to be in Paris to be in the room.” Sign up to experience this moment live from wherever you are and discover how we can build a sustainable future together. “BANKSPARENCY” A friend has launched this site to Compare High-Yield Bank Accounts. “I only soft-launched it last month. I’m still in the process of adding more banks and more bank products. I’d appreciate any feedback your readers may have.” For money, I guess, you truly can’t afford to lose. FLAMINGOS An entrepreneur on a Zoom seeking funds this morning was asked: “What if someone just uses AI to invent a superior product?” “AI is amazing for lots of things,” he said, “but until you can get an AI to draw a picture with 5 flamingos, I’m not worried. Try it on Grok or any of the others.” What a weird answer, I thought — and immediately went to Microsoft’s Copilot and typed: “draw me a picture of 5 falmingos.” Unfazed by my typo, it produced a gorgeous picture . . . of 7. “Why does the picture you drew have 7 flamingos when I asked for 5?” I asked. “It seems like there may have been a glitch that caused the image generation to include seven flamingos instead of five. I aim to follow requests precisely, but occasionally the tools I use might interpret the description differently. If you’d like, I can try creating an updated image to match your original request more closely! Let me know.” “Yes, please re-draw it with 5 instead of 7.” This time, there were 6. “Now there are 6 flamingos. Please re-draw with just exactly 5.” “All right, I’ll create a new image with exactly five flamingos for you. Let me know if there’s anything else you’d like adjusted.” And here it is: 6 flamingos. At the rate AI is improving, I have to think the flamingo challenge will soon be overcome. But — huh? MUSK FEEDBACK Kris M: “You say, ‘We have a lot to be thankful to Musk for’??? I’d say HE has a lot to be thankful to US for. Without a 2010 loan from U.S. taxpayers, he would not have been able to build his factory in California and roll out the Model S. His companies exist because of billions ($38 of them over the last 20 years) of government contracts, loans, subsidies, etc. As a long-time taxpayer, I’d like to see some of the billionaires I’ve helped create show some gratitude to the country that enabled their success and give something back to that country in the form of tax dollars.” Daniel N.: “In What’s Musk Really Up To? yesterday you propagate what can only be described as a wild conspiracy theory. I have similar mixed feelings about Musk to yours. But spreading this sort of nonsense is going too far. Please stop.” *”By Gavi’s own estimate, the loss of U.S. support may mean 75 million children do not receive routine vaccinations in the next five years, with more than 1.2 million children dying as a result.”
What’s Musk Really Up To? March 26, 2025March 26, 2025 No question that Musk is a visionary genius (also “a pathetic man-child,” in the words of his daughter) — we have a lot to be thankful to him for. But I wouldn’t buy his stock, now selling for 141 times its trailing 12-month earnings (Ford sells at 7 times and pays a 7% dividend) because Tesla’s sales are falling sharply around the world, including China (Tesla’s No.1 rival is practically taunting Elon Musk now) . . . . . . and, like Marc Elias, whose powerful Open Letter to Musk I commend to you, I wouldn’t buy his cars, because he and Trump are wrecking American democracy and the post-War order. Our allies are appalled; the world’s murderous tyrants are delighted. Our economy, “the envy of the world” when they inherited it, now teeters on the brink of stagflation. To the man with the chainsaw, nothing is off the table when it comes to addressing the deficit — except the income side of the equation. Cut wages, cut health care, cut scientific research, cut our “soft power” around the world as you let babies starve to death (they’re African babies, so who cares?) . . . just don’t raise more revenue from billionaires, millionaires, and large corporations by allowing their 2017 tax cuts to expire. Could it be that simple? That he genuinely believes there’s tremendous “waste fraud and abuse” to be cut even though he’s yet to identify much of it at all? And that all he really cares about is keeping his taxes low? Maybe not. Here’s one view recently posted on Facebook: If you’re a little confused about what Musk is trying to achieve with DOGE, here’s the breakdown: Elon Musk and Peter Thiel cofounded a company that became PayPal. Other executives at PayPal went on to found or lead other huge tech companies including YouTube, LinkedIn, Reddit, Affirm, and many VC firms. This group became known as the PayPal mafia because they exerted an outsized influence on Silicon Valley. Peter Thiel mentored a young JD Vance and helped him get set up in his first VC firm. Peter Thiel and the PayPal mafia funded JD Vance’s successful Senate run. Amazing because he had absolutely zero political experience. Thiel and Musk all but forced Trump to choose JD Vance as VP in exchange for funding his presidential campaign. The three of them, plus a lot of other tech billionaires subscribe to an ideology called the Dark Enlightenment espoused by this super weird, creepy dude: Curtis Yarvin aka Mencius Moldbug. Yarvin preaches that the media and academia represent “The Cathedral” that secretly controls power and must be dismantled. He advocates for a corporate run monarchy led by a CEO-Dictator. Says that Democracy is an “outdated software” and openly opposes it and that: – Government agencies should be dismantled and The U.S. should be broken up into “patchworks” controlled by tech oligarchs. – That the elite tech billionaires should rule because they have the intelligence to “fix” society – That the “masses are asses” too dumb to govern themselves. The strategy is to gut the government via R.A.G.E – Retire All Govt Employees to make government incapable of operating. Then to replace government with private corporations. → This may be completely crazy. Or visionary — like going to Mars, annexing Canada and Greenland, or boring tunnels from LA to NY. I don’t know. But I’d like Congress and the courts to have a real say in how our future is shaped, not just Trump and Musk. Instead, they are doing what tyrants always do when snuffing out democracy. As Robert Reich makes clear, they are going after the four pillars of society: universities, science, the media, and the law. And it falls to us lovers of liberty, he argues — whether on the right (Liz Cheney) or the left (AOC) — to find the courage to stop them. Join Indivisible! Attend one of 600 events April 5 or organize your own! Spread DIS-disinformation! PRKR The Supreme Court ruled against inventors yesterday by declining to hear their case. Not surprising given how few cases they do accept and how full their plate is these days — but still. Fortunately, as I understand it, while it would have been nice if the Court had agreed to hear Parker’s argument — and good for patent holders everywhere if they had agreed with it — their failure to do so has no bearing on PRKR’s 13 outstanding lawsuits. The stock briefly fell off a cliff yesterday but then largely recovered. It remains (in my view) the compelling speculation it’s always been. But ONLY with money you can truly afford to lose.
15 Ways To Fight For Democracy March 25, 2025 There Is a Way for Democrats to Stop Trump and Save America, writes Ben Rhodes in the New York Times, concluding: If you don’t like what is happening to this country, you don’t need to wait for someone to come along and save it: You need each other. That should be the message that Democrats embrace, because most Americans don’t want to go where Donald Trump and Elon Musk are leading us. The opposite of shame is pride. Let’s be proud of fighting back, of caring about one another, of committing to rebuild what is being destroyed. Because America is not just about the powerful becoming more powerful; at its best, it is about the underdog beating the longest of odds. Hurray, by the way, for Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Chris Murphy, Greg Casar, and SO many others. The movement is building. Join Indivisible! Join one of 600 events April 5 — or organize one of your own. Consider these 15 Ways You Can Fight for Democracy! BONUS Tesla is facing a major problem that could cost it billions but its stock jumped 13% yesterday, to 137 times its trailing 12-month earnings. (Ford trades at 7 times.) The stock market is not always rational.
Why I’m Reading Teen Vogue . . . March 24, 2025March 23, 2025 . . . but first: Kudos to Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat, who explains: . . . These big MAGA-red boards welcome passersby to a completely alternate reality. . . .“President Donald J. Trump, Rebuilding America’s Infrastructure. . . .” . . . As the signs say, the project is funded by the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. But when that bill passed in the fall of 2021, it succeeded only despite a historic sabotage campaign waged against it by the then ex-president. Trump, operating out of Mar-a-Lago at that point, called the bill “a loser for the USA, a terrible deal.” He dubbed it the “Non-Infrastructure Bill.” In an unprecedented move by a former president, he attempted to rally Republicans to torpedo the effort, branding any party member who voted for it “weak, foolish and dumb.” When 19 GOP senators and 13 House members joined with most Democrats to pass it anyway, he. . . compared [them] to appeasers of the Nazis. One of his allies, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, labeled them “traitors” to the nation. The atmosphere was so poisonous that a constituent of one House Republican [threatened] to kill him.” The constituent was arrested and charged with harassment. All this over a roads-and-rail bill. Given this history, that the government’s now putting up signs giving Trump credit is a new level of Orwellian. . . . The facts are that Trump the builder tried for four years to pass an infrastructure bill but flopped. Biden the supposedly doddering geriatric came along and pushed one through with bipartisan support — in his first year. Join Indivisible! Get your local chapter to design and fund a billboard near any Democratic infrastructure project: “Funding for this project was made possible by [your representative and senators, if it was] and OPPOSED by Trump and 94% of Congressional Republicans.” Watch this National Park Service clip. Post billboards: “Park Ranger Layoffs Ahead. Elon Musk Needed A Tax Cut.” Trump and Musk are forcing the elderly and disabled to travel to Social Security field offices to handle issues heretofore handled over the phone — even as staff and field offices are being cut. Republican Senator John Curtis of Utah had sensible things to say about Social Security yesterday. Watch. I don’t know what reforms he plans to introduce . . . you know what MY bill would propose . . . but this is the sort of discussion we should have. If only more Republicans were like John Curtis! And now! Teen Vogue. Musk’s daughter, now 20, calls him “a pathetic man-child.” And — not that 16-year-olds and their mothers and doctors should have any say in this (Trump feels these are his decisions to make) — but her opinion is that “Transitioning as a minor was something that was medically necessary for me to do in order to be not suicidal, and it is really important that we protect access to trans care for trans youth.” You can read it all in Teen Vogue.