Author: A.T.

“Please tell me how to look for stocks (their trend and what to look for). I would appreciate a reply. Thanks. Mr. Nayeem Aziz”

Nayeem, this is a question that only took you 21 words to ask but would take a book to answer. Suggestions: WHAT WORKS ON WALL STREET, by James O’Shaughnessy; Peter Lynch’s ONE UP ON WALL STREET or his more recent BEATING THE STREET; a subscription to INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY, with the free William O’Neil book and tape that often come with it; or even MY book, which will discourage you from looking for stocks at all and steer you toward low-expense no-load mutual funds.

Do Ties Cut Off Blood Flow To The Brain? “Want to destroy a good programmer?” one of you wrote me last month. “Put him in a tie. Maybe it cuts off the blood flow to the brain?”

This touched a chord with Robert Brown, who responded as follows: “Several years ago I read of a study, I believe out of Cornell, which addressed this question. Using what is apparently a standard test for general mental attention, they had subjects indicate at what point they could no longer detect flicker in a rapidly flickering light. (Possibly analogous to clock speed on microprocessors.) Turns out subjects wearing ties lost track of the flicker significantly sooner than those with unencumbered jugulars. The proposed conclusion was indeed that neckties were restricting blood flow to the brain. Since I don’t have details on the study this probably needs to be considered an urban legend (or worse). But I must say I agree that my mental state is affected by my attire. (My favorite attire anecdote, which I think came from an old Dale Carnegie book, is about a woman with a terminal illness who had been in a ‘sanitarium’ for many years. As her condition was deemed hopeless she was sent home to die. Her only clothing for many years had been a drab hospital gown, so they bought her a brighter civilian outfit. The story goes that just putting on that new outfit so changed her whole outlook that she welled up with optimism, came back to life and returned to health.)”

So wear a cheerful tie. Thank you, Robert.

Charity and Taxes. This correction from Alan Levit: “I was interested to see that you described $90,000 as 10% after-tax to a family with a $500,000 income. I don’t see it quite that way. Let’s assume that the combined marginal state and federal tax rate is 50% (close enough for those of us in NY or CA). The family’s after-tax income is $250,000 if they contribute nothing, and $205,000 if they make the $90,000 contribution. The reduction is 45,000/250,000, or 18%. Let’s give those 90K contributors all the credit they deserve!”

He’s absolutely right, of course. At any tax rate, it works out to 18%. My tie was obviously too tight as I wrote that.

Piggy’s Kid Brother, Peeper. Previously, we learned a little about Paul Felix Warburg, known to all in the family as Piggy. He’s the one who got in trouble with his dad for investing in some cockamamie scheme that became known as “television.” Thanks to Dave Davis — and to his reading of Ron Chernow’s excellent family history, The Warburgs — we now learn that the youngest of Felix Warburg’s sons, Edward (nicknamed Peeper), had an early appreciation for modern art. In the summer of 1929, he took a trip to Germany and made an interesting acquisition. Chernow’s account:

“Having turned twenty-one in June, Eddie had inherited money from Grandpa Schiff [famed Wall Streeter Jacob Schiff]. A friend who worked in a Berlin gallery showed him Picasso’s BLUE BOY. This downcast, pensive figure enchanted the young Harvard undergraduate who plunked down seven thousand dollars for it. On the trip home, he worried about Felix’s reaction and decided to reduce the amount he had paid by half. When Eddie told the customs officer that he had paid thirty-five hundred dollars for the painting, the man gasped. ‘You bought a $3,500 picture? You mean you actually paid that for this? Sonny, I’m going down the dock, and when I come back, you change that figure to $1,000.’ Piggy was there to add comedy to the scene. ‘Thanks,’ he told the customs officer. ‘You see, we find it cheaper to let him do this than to keep him at Bloomingdale’s.'” Bloomingdale’s was a posh loony bin of the time.

In truth, if BLUE BOY would be worth $20 million or $40 million today, then it has appreciated at 12.5% or 13.5% from its 1929 purchase price. Nothing like the annual rate of gain most Americans expect from the stock market these days, but extremely brisk nonetheless.

Thought of another way, if a buyer in 1929 would have been satisfied with 6% annual appreciation, he could have paid $380,000 instead of $7,000 and still seen his investment grow to $20 million by 1997. And really, 6% is not so awful. But can you imagine the look on the customs guy’s face if he had declared a $380,000 purchase price?

Last month, one of the updates concerned this question of why those best able to afford to give money actually give less, in after-tax percentage terms, than everybody else.

A friend who makes several million dollars a year — and who has donated some of it to build a pediatric intensive care unit at a major university hospital — has pondered the question at my request and provides this considerable insight:

I have often wondered why (some) “rich” people don’t give to charity. Here are my conclusions. Most of these were learned when I solicited funds for the pediatric intensive care unit that I largely underwrote. Even with my underwriting, and offering to match two-to-one, this is what I found out:

1. Most people who are rich don’t think they are. They do not adjust to their new circumstances. If they started out poor, as did many, they are still into saving pennies, and cannot easily change their habits.

2. Many cannot connect the dots between the giving and results. They are too busy to do anything but work, and thus give to United Way or some other umbrella organization, and don’t feel the connection. Those who have the time, start the kinds of project I did. Mine came from a tragedy [the loss of his infant daughter], a catalyst I don’t wish on anyone.

3. Taxes. I am sure you will disagree here, but when taxes approach 50%, as they do in NYC, people feel they have “given at the office.” When only 50 cents of every additional dollar earned is retained, the thought of giving becomes less attractive. [Actually, I believe studies show that the higher the tax rates, and thus the tax “benefit” from a charitable deduction, the more people are inclined to give, “since it just would have gone to the government anyway.”]

4. Failure to identify. When I was in Eastern Russia, I could not get the money out of my pockets fast enough to give to the blue-eyed, blond children there. When I watch the local nightly news “perp walk,” or the Rwandan tragedy, I do not feel the same “pull” on my heartstrings that I do when I see kids who look like my kids. Notwithstanding our pediatric ICU serves mostly minority kids, it took me some time (6 months, day to day) to identify with them (their parents never came to see them). While this may sound racist, I feel there is a lot to it. People often give because “…there but for the grace of god…,” and they don’t identify with gang members, drug addicts or welfare mothers (even though the situations could easily be reversed — the thought is a tough one).

5. The Balkanization and Asianization of America. When people come from societies without a Judeo-Christian heritage, where “no work, no eat” is the norm, they are less likely to be “givers.” There is a surprisingly small amount of donations from Asians and Asian-Americans, relative to their success. The same for Hasidic and Lubovicher Jews in NYC (Balkanization). And for actors and actresses. (They will make appearances, but rarely donate cash, no matter how successful they are – see #1 above). I know my metaphor is a bit mixed here, but I hope you get the point.

6. The rapid pace of change, both technological and societal, makes people anxious, and enhances their perceived need for economic security. Storing chestnuts away for a long winter — a winter artificially lengthened by biotechnology for the Baby Boomers — may account for the growth in IRA’s and Mutual Funds. They are worried about a life after employment (sooner, rather than later) with no Government support, or at least none that they would like to think about.

Good reasons — but, my friend suggests, not good enough.

From John Dorgan: “As I’m sure you know, your advice regarding mutual funds is in stark contrast with the folks at the Motley Fool who say that mutual funds rarely keep up with index funds. They suggest buying numbers 2 through 5 of the top five dividend paying Dow Jones Industrials has yielded an annual growth of 22.23% over the past 25 years. Your comments would be appreciated.”

As long as you have some way of going back 25 years to start investing that way, you will definitely earn 22.3% compounded on your money. Whether this will work going forward is less clear.

Certainly, the idea of buying the highest dividend-paying Dow stocks each year has some appeal. The notion is that these companies, having made it into the Dow, are not, by and large, the type to go broke. So if you buy those with the highest dividends, you will (a) get the highest dividends, which can’t hurt, and (b) generally be selecting stocks that are out of favor (their prices have fallen to the point that the dividend, as a percentage thereof, has become relatively high). Things that go out of fashion have a way of coming back into fashion.

So there’s some logic to it, but I think there are lots of holes one could poke in it going forward. One is simply a tax problem (if you’re doing this in a taxable account). Index funds generate little by way of taxable gains. Rebalancing a “dogs of the Dow” portfolio each year, on the other hand, exposes much of the gain to tax. Say you could earn 20% a year taxably with this strategy going forward (which I doubt), but you’re in the 40% bracket, between federal and local taxes, given some blend of long- and short-term gains. That means you’re not getting 20% a year but more like 12%. After 25 years, the $1,000 you started with (say) would be worth $17,000. But earning “just” 15% in an index fund, and assuming for simplicity sake that none of it would have been taxed along the way (although the dividend portion, at least, would have been), your $1,000 would have grown to $33,000 — subject to capital gains tax if you sold the fund. How does a potentially-taxable $33,000 compare with $17,000 on which taxes have been fully paid? Well, at today’s 28% rate, plus say another 7% for state and local tax, you’d get to keep north of $21,000. So 20% with the “Dow dogs” might be less good, in a taxable account, than 15% with an index fund.

Of course, numbers like these — 20% and 15% — are extremely aggressive and optimistic. It’s much more likely both the Index funds and the Dow dogs will revert to much more modest returns. But however well they do, taxes are one item to consider.

Aside from taxes, what else might go wrong with the Dow dogs? Perhaps nothing. Or perhaps relationships will just change going forward. For the next few years, perhaps the Dow dog with the highest dividend, which the Motley Fools would exclude — it’s Philip Morris for 1997 — will really rock and roll, while the second through fifth, which the Fool suggests you favor, will do worse than the sixth through tenth — or worse than Berkshire Hathaway, say, which has also outperformed most mutual funds for the last 25 years (and without your having to pay taxes along the way).

As for your/their comment that most mutual funds rarely keep up with index funds — this is absolutely true, and a point I frequently make myself. That’s why I think super-low-expense index funds are a good choice for most people who want to put some of their money in the market.

But I’d also agree with those who think the big “index stocks” may have been pumped up even more than the rest of the market because so much money has been going into these index funds. I’m not sure we’re anywhere near the end of that, but would suggest looking at index funds that invest more broadly — or that invest abroad.

From a woman of good spirits and not inconsiderable means: “I wrote to you in April ’96 asking what I should do as I had an $11,000 gain on a $22,000 investment. You said sell, but I decided to be the pig and held on … all the way back to break-even. That’s one for the DUM, DA, DUMB, DUM file. But this year I’m going to try again. I subscribed to Investor’s Business Daily, read his book, listened to his tape and am still looking for the cup and handle on stock charts. He must have better eyes than I do. So, I have decided to begin with $20,000, which of course I fully intend to turn into $40,000 by year’s end. Just as an experiment. No more getting caught up in the Iomega crazes, etc., etc. So, wish me luck. I’ll let you know if it works.”

What’s your guess? Is she likely to turn $20,000 into $40,000 this year? Even with the benefit of William O’Neil’s book and tape?

The two things she has going for her — possibly three — that she wouldn’t have had 20 years ago:

Low Commissions. It used to be, brokers nicked you for 1% or 2%, coming and going, when you went to do a trade. In a world where stocks might be expected to average 9% a year in dividends and growth, going in and out a couple of times ate up your entire expected return. Today, you can trade for practically nothing. But note that the taxes involved in trading in and out are still there, as are “spreads” between bid and asked prices that are the less obvious transaction costs you have to pay to play.

A Bull Market. When the trend is up, everyone’s a genius. Twenty years ago, the market had been largely lousy for nearly ten years and would get lousier still before bottoming out five years later. That’s a long, long time for a lousy market. When the next bear market arrives, it will be quite a shock — of the long, drawn out, demoralizing kind — for a lot of people. When it will come no one knows. But the more years the market rises at way beyond a sustainable rate (like its recent annual 20% or 30% gains), the closer and deeper the bear market is likely to be.

Better Information. From your laptop, you can get S.E.C. filings and other such info all but instantly, just like the pros. But so can your competition. So unless you are the kind of investor who really does her homework, crunches the numbers, talks to the customers, and so forth, you are competing against an ever better informed investor. If you take the easy way, doing “research” by tapping into two-sentence tips from fellow speculators on any number of investment forums, you’ll have more fun but are just playing the horses. Or musical chairs.

From J.J.H.: “Do you have any advice for someone who followed your suggestion awhile ago (from The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, Revised and Updated) and purchased some shares in the Mutual Series Fund family (now that Heine Securities Corporation has been joined to Franklin Resources)? Although the individuals involved in the management of these funds have promised to remain with them for several years, can I expect to see any radical changes now that ultimate oversight is provided by Franklin Templeton? Is there an historical precedent I should be aware of when this type of takeover happens? Are there cautions you’d suggest?”

Well, I haven’t sold mine.

When The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need was first published in 1978, it recommended only a handful of funds, including Mutual Shares (which in the years to come was joined by some Mutual brothers and sisters). It was only recently dropped from the “revised and updated” 1996 version in a printing subsequent to the one you apparently bought, because for new customers (only), the Mutual Series funds, recently acquired by the Franklin family of funds, as you noted, will charge a sales commission (or “load”) — and I only recommend no-load funds.

But for those of us lucky enough already to have shares in any of the Mutual Series funds, any future purchases will be grandfathered as no-load, so that’s not an issue for you or me.

I actually bought my first shares in Mutual Shares in 1976 or 1977 when my employer, New York Magazine, was acquired, and I needed a place to rollover my gargantuan retirement account. (It was around $5,500, if memory serves.) I put it into an IRA with Mutual Shares, and today, bless its little greedy heart, it’s grown to $125,000 or so. Yes, it was helped along by five or ten voluntary, non-deductible $2,000 contributions along the way (non-deductible because I was also contributing to a self-directed Keogh Plan). But I’m still more than pleased with the performance.

Interestingly, the genius behind Mutual Shares, Max Heine, died many years ago. But the young fellow he trained, Michael Price, did every bit as well as the master. Now Price is easing his way out (having just picked up $550 million in his sale to Franklin, with the chance for a couple hundred million more if things go well), but he has a cadre of key people he’s trained.

Will Mutual Shares do as well in the future, relative to other funds, as it has done in the past? Without Michael, maybe not. But I’d be in no great rush to sell on the basis of the merger, if I were you. And if I did sell, I’d retain a token position in the fund because, as I understand it, that will allow you to reinvest in any of these funds in the future without having to pay a load.

PS — For more, you might want to read Fortune’s excellent take on Michael Price and his lieutenants.

If you were born in 1947, like me, you’ve probably spent most of your life hoping for things that seemed impossible. Nuclear disarmament, freedom in Eastern Europe, an end to apartheid, democracy and free trade throughout much of the world, cheap air fares, fat-free cheese. Also: low interest rates, low inflation, a bull market, declining crime rates, low unemployment, declining deficits. Not to mention a country at least a little closer to judging its citizens based on the content of their character rather than the color of their skin. (Happy Birthday, Dr. King.)

Needless to say, there’s a long list of problems, too. But those are for the next 1,460 days. Today is a day to enjoy a little — even if you preferred the other guy.

With the departure of Malcolm Forbes some years ago, a man who virtually defined “joi de vivre” for many of us, even those of us a little unsure how to spell it (I took Russian), one might have expected interest in ballooning to fade from the scene. But now come three — count ’em, three! — sets of madmen (the maddest of whom is a set of just one guy, solo, with no pressurized cabin) who propose to circumnavigate the globe by balloon.

I am no stranger to hot air. And I have even inhaled a lungful of helium or two. It makes you talk like this. But to risk one’s life just to end up approximately where you started? When Magellan tried it by boat, he was killed by natives, but at least he proved the earth was round and got a hell of a mutual fund named after him. But now we know the earth is round — smoother than a bowling ball, they say, despite Everest and the Empire State Building — so why is Virgin Atlantic’s Richard Branson leading one such expedition, with two other lesser knowns in hot pursuit? Why risk getting shot down by the North Koreans?

OK, OK, it’s thrilling. To read more about it all, click here.

But why am I telling you this? It is because I hold in my hand a letter written in 1878 by the famous French balloonist Louis Godard to the Mayor of Avignon. Or at least I hope he was famous. When I bought it, I just sort of assumed he was the Godard for whom the Goddard Space Center was named, but now suspect that it was named for the American rocket scientist Robert Goddard, with two D’s. And I just sort of assumed he was famous because, well, I knew the name Godard (Jean Luc Godard, perhaps, the famous French film director?).

But he must have been famous, because look at his letterhead. It’s festooned with engravings of Godard balloons, “with joyous and excited clients as well as professional entertainers and daredevils suspended in some fashion from these wondrous contraptions” (as the catalog copy had it).

I should point out that not quite 120 years after he wrote this letter you could, for the price of a sandwich, pull a phone (the prototype having been invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876, just two years earlier) from the seatback in front of you, slide your credit card through, and make a call from 37,000 feet as you make the 4.5 hour trip from JFK to LAX.

But in 1878 — as today — people were enthralled by balloons, and Godard was haggling with the Mayor of Avignon over prices. “Mr. Mayor,” he wrote, “The price quoted you by Montbrison for 800 francs is correct, but that was for an ascent in a Montgolfier in which a descent is made 5 minutes outside of town — which is of interest to no one — and in which an ascent is made to a height of 200 meters.” [Ninety-one years later, man would walk on the moon, but I digress.] “If I have not asked for more, it is because I was pressed not to charge more, but ordinarily these are not my prices.”

Whereupon he lists:

“A simple ascension in a 280 cubic meter balloon capable of carrying the aeronaut — 100F. The cost of gas and travel costs to be borne by the city.” [The first automobile was about a decade away, so gas would presumably have been for the balloon.] “Ascent with a trapeze exercise suspended by one hand — 1,000F. Ascent with a parachute descent — 2,000F and the balloon containing 900 cubic meters of gas carrying 4 persons.” [You might wonder what parachutes were for given the stark absence of airplanes in 1878. Yet they were, apparently, for balloons — the first successful jump from “a great height” — 920 meters — having been made in 1797 by another Frenchman, Jacques Garnerin. I’m going to get my money’s worth from the multimedia encyclopedia that came with my new computer if it kills us.]

“I would suggest to you also to take for 100F some balloons of 5 meters’ height which will descend some 15 or 20 leagues from the city, bearing the names of the cities which commissioned the flight, the letters 50 centimeters in height and each balloon carrying 5 parachutes dropping toys and hard candies — which are a very nice accompaniment to an ascent. I would make a dozen for you if you accept.

“So, Mr. Mayor, there are my prices. If by the end of the week I have not received your answer, I shall consider the matter closed. Please accept, sir, the expression of my deepest respect. Godard, Aeronaut for the Government.”

A hundred years from now, when Bill Gates’ ideas are going to be considered quaint, and today’s Pentium-powered notebooks objects of amusement, will some wiseass autograph collector be quoting his handwritten letters? I think not. Unless I miss my mark, Bill Gates is an e-mail kind of guy.

(Where do you find letters like this? There’s a list of them printed every day. No, wait. That’s NASDAQ. You find these letters via dealers and auctions).

Next Week: What of Mutual Series Now? and Playing the Fool

From Alvin: “Try calling AT&T and ask them to match your lowest rates quoted elsewhere. I did and they came up with 10 cents a minute 24 hours a day.”

OK, I’m too embarrassed — shy — whatever — to do this. But I hope you will, and let me know if you can get the same deal. They’ve made such a point of offering fifteen cents a minute on TV . . . at any time, to anyone, anywhere in the country . . . it would be kind of amazing if you could get them to knock off 33% just by asking.

Separately, the irrepressible Doug Bross, for whom I can’t vouch personally but who certainly seems eager to cut your phone rates, suggests the ATCARD calling card, from a company called ATCALL in Arlington, Virginia. Instead of paying AT&T $1.18 to make an 18-second call from a pay phone — “Leave a message at the beep. BEEEEP.” “Hi, it’s me. Call me.” — ATCARD would charge just a nickel, because its 16-cent rate is chopped up into 6-second increments.

On longer calls, the savings would be larger, though less dramatic in percentage terms. And here I was thinking I was doing pretty well with a card that costs just 25 cents a minute.

According to Doug, there are no surcharges or fees, just a flat 16 cents a minute. “I know people who actually use this INSTEAD of dropping a quarter into the local pay phones,” he says, since for anything under 90 seconds — 24 cents — it’s actually cheaper to use this “long distance” calling card to make local pay-phone calls. “If you’d like further information,” Doug offers hopefully, “feel free to call me at 800-956- 9241.”

Every time I think AT&T stock looks cheap, I think about competition like this and chicken out.

Some months ago, I waxed enthusiastic over My Yahoo. Well, today let me re-wax that one, but shine it even a little brighter. Yahoo now has a clickable “GET LOCAL” near the top of that page (or at the bottom of the general Yahoo “home” page). If you click it, here’s what you get: a place to enter your zip code and then select from all manner of stuff.

Example: MovieLink, which you’ll find in the list on the left. Click that and you can find out what’s playing near you (without that annoying HELLO! AND WELCOME TO MOVIE PHONE! some of us know well). Then, click and get a New York Times review of the movie — and so on.

Weather, restaurants, maps . . . you get the idea.

Many of you are miles ahead of me on all this. But for those websters just feeling their way, like me — check it out.

Tomorrow: More Phone Savings?