Laugh? Cry? Explode? March 14, 2023 Have you read Elizabeth Warren’s op-ed? Silicon Valley Bank Is Gone. We Know Who Is Responsible. She is pissed. So is Barbara Morrill — but she’s funny, too: Kevin McCarthy’s deal with the devil has worked out great—for Democrats. . . . When the “red wave” never materialized in the 2022 midterms, McCarthy made a decision to relinquish whatever ethics and morals he had left, preferring to cave to the extremists in his party, all in pursuit of the speaker’s gavel. What he really handed over was a gift to Democrats. . . . (That’s not the funny part. Give it a read.) And here is John Oliver on DeSantis. Funny, pissed, and seemingly ready to explode at any moment. His rant won’t change minds; but those of us who don’t see DeSantis as the answer will get a kick out of it. Warning: strong language, hyperbole, polemic. When a Q-Anon supporter is made Speaker of the House Pro-Tem, one doesn’t know whether to laugh, cry, or explode. Personally, I lean toward . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . the suspense builds . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . though you suspect there’s a trick in here someplace . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . . scroll down . . . . . .winning back the House.
Finally — An Email From Me Asking You NOT To Give Money March 13, 2023March 12, 2023 That was the subject line. I sent it to 1,500 people. Most already knew the three Members of Congress running to fill retiring Dianne Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat. It read: I love Katie Porter. I love Barbara Lee. I love Adam Schiff. But there are just three possible outcomes. THE CATASTROPHE: WE LOSE IT ALL So MANY wonderful Dems get into this open primary, splitting the vote, that the top two vote-getters are Republicans, meaning that we lose the seat altogether – and possibly control of the Senate itself. THE DISASTER: WE LOSE A GREAT DEAL We win – but lose three great House members. AND will have spent a fortune fighting each other in the primary. AND may have lost Katie’s seat altogether (and perhaps even the House itself, as a result!). She spent $24 million last year to edge out a guy who spent a tenth as much. She’s a hero for winning in such a tough district — and may be the ONLY hero who can hold it for us. THE SOLUTION: WE WIN IT ALL What we donors need is an informal consensus to form around just ONE of these three amazing candidates, and then to give – to the extent we give at all — only to her or him. My suggestion is that we let someone really, really smart guide us on this – ideally, a progressive champion who knows California and knows how to count votes. A winner, basically. Which is why Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement of Adam Schiff solves the problem. All [Dems] should give only to Adam or to no one at all . . . and urge Katie and Barbara — TALENTS WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE — to follow the leader . . . possibly determining control of the Senate or the House (if 2024 turns out to be the squeaker it may be) and freeing up tens of millions of Democratic dollars to fight MAGA Republicans. If this makes sense to you, please spread the word. (And, as always, click here.) Thanks! Another scenario might have Governor Newsom tapping Barbara Lee to fill out the Senator’s term if she retires early (good for his Presidential run, if in some year he makes one?) . . . at which point I hope Porter, at least, might drop out in time to retain her House seat. And maybe Schiff, too. Aged 49 and 62, respectively, each would have another shot at this in 6 years when then-Senator Lee — contemplating a second term that would run past her 90th birthday — would likely opt for a well deserved rest. But the main thing is: Democrats spent $100 million in Florida choosing which candidate would go on to lose the governorship to Ron DeSantis by less than half of one percent in 2018. Would it have made sense to spend, maybe, $15 million instead and use the other $85 million to beat DeSantis? That’s the sort of thinking I hope we might do prospectively here, and thereby retain Senator Feinstein’s seat and the talents of all three exceptionally good candidates now running to fill it. ARE YOU AN ACTIVIST? MIGHT YOU BECOME ONE? Here’s a menu of keynotes and panels that might interest you, organized by Field Team Six and kicking off Thursday at 11am EDT (8am PDT). Zoom in to part of it? It’s free. THE AVERTED BANKING CRISIS At this writing, it looks as though the Administration is doing what’s required to keep the banking system upright. The shareholders and bondholders of Silicon Valley Bank and others will be largely or entirely wiped out (that’s how capitalism works); but at no cost to their depositors or the taxpayers (broadly speaking, that’s how the Dodd-Frank legislation works). It’s nice to have serious, competent, experienced people running the federal government.
Ahhhh-nold March 10, 2023March 9, 2023 There’s so much I want to write about — Uri’s reaction to Monday’s post, your reactions to Tuesday’s guest post by ChatGPT — but today . . . . . . start with this, the most important film Arnold Schwarzenegger ever made. Seven minutes. You’ve probably already seen it — I had — but it’s worth watching again. And then treat yourself to this profile in the Atlantic. . . . Schwarzenegger was born two years after World War II ended and grew up, as he put it, “in the ruins of a country that suffered the loss of its democracy.” His father, Gustav Schwarzenegger, was a police chief in Graz, Austria, and fought for the Nazis. Schwarzenegger has spoken more freely of late about his father’s activities and his own attempts to reconcile with them. History need not repeat—that has been his essential theme. Hatred and prejudice are not inevitable features of humanity. “You don’t have to be stuck in that,” he told me. Humans “have the capacity to change.” . . . Have a great weekend!
In Case Someone Gets Hit By A Bus March 9, 2023March 8, 2023 IF IT’S A FRIEND’S LOVED ONE . . . I found Glenn Sonnenberg’s How Do You Empathize When the Grief Is Great? uncommonly wise and helpful. IF IT’S YOU . . . Larry Francis: “I’ve found a book, In Case you Get Hit by a Bus, that is SO helpful for how to organize your life and paperwork in case your life ends abruptly. It is an exhaustive but helpful list of things you might not have thought of. It has suggestions for solutions. BUT it doesn’t list the best place to put all the documents for someone trying to organize your life while you’re in a coma or a casket. The place I’ve found for that is fidsafe.com. It’s a FREE service of Fidelity and has been available for many years without any advertising or promotion. It’s easy to use and fits nicely with the ‘bus’ book. Documents are locked up and secure until the folks you designate get access. Too many features to list them all here — check it out.”
A Whole New Thing For Us As A Country March 8, 2023March 7, 2023 Georgia’s Republicans are poised to squelch the prosecution of Trump for his effort to find “just 11,780 votes.” They’ve decided they can’t trust a jury to decide the case; they need to be able to fire the prosecutor and shut it all down. Watch. As the host says — and I know some of you don’t like her, but you should listen anyway because our democracy is at stake — “this is a whole new thing for us as a country.” I’ve taken a gamble on UNIT. At $4.70, with a 60-cent dividend, it yields 12%. Check it out if you have a high tolerance for risk. If interest rates stay high for three or four years, I will lose all my money (less dividends I may have received along the way). If interest rates moderate after a year or two, I could earn that yield for a long time and enjoy a capital gain when I sold. I can afford to lose that $4.70. None of us can afford to lose our democracy. The world cannot afford for us to lose our democracy. Watch. (And if you can, help.)
Guest Column March 7, 2023March 6, 2023 “So why don’t you get ChatGPT to write your columns?” a friend suggested after reading this one from last week. I scoffed. But thought about it. And then typed: write a 300-word column in the style of andrewtobias.com. ONE SECOND LATER, I got this: Delayed Gratification for Financial Success Welcome to my column, dear readers. Today, I want to talk about a topic that’s always on everyone’s mind: money. Specifically, I want to discuss the concept of delayed gratification and how it can lead to financial success. In our modern society, we are bombarded with messages telling us to buy, buy, buy. From flashy advertisements to social media influencers, it can be hard to resist the urge to spend our hard-earned money on the latest and greatest products. But what if I told you that delaying gratification could actually lead to greater financial success in the long run? By choosing to save and invest our money rather than spending it on immediate pleasures, we can set ourselves up for a more secure financial future. This doesn’t mean that we can’t enjoy life in the present. It simply means being mindful of our spending and focusing on the things that truly bring us happiness and fulfillment. By cutting back on unnecessary expenses, we can free up more money to put towards our long-term financial goals. One way to start practicing delayed gratification is to set up a budget. By tracking our expenses and setting limits on our spending, we can ensure that we are making the most of our money. We can also prioritize saving and investing by automatically transferring a portion of our income to a savings or investment account each month. Another important aspect of delayed gratification is patience. Building wealth takes time, and it’s important to remember that financial success is a marathon, not a sprint. By staying committed to our financial goals and being patient in our investment strategies, we can reap the rewards of our hard work and dedication over time. In conclusion, delayed gratification is a key component of financial success. By prioritizing saving and investing, setting up a budget, and practicing patience, we can set ourselves up for a more secure and prosperous future. Remember, it’s not about depriving ourselves of life’s pleasures, but rather being mindful of our spending and making choices that will benefit us in the long run. Not my best . . . but IN ONE SECOND? The Singularity Is Near. BONUS From the Patriotic Millionaires: Wall Street is trying to kill the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau again — and we need your help to stop them. Voters of all political backgrounds, Democrat, independent, and even Republican, support the CFPB’s work. Only Wall Street and their allies in Congress hate it. If we can generate enough public pressure, we can stop them. Please send a direct message to your members of Congress now. It only takes a minute.
I’m #61 (George Clooney is #62) March 6, 2023March 7, 2023 Fifty years ago I wrote a story for NEW YORK about Uri Geller. When I first handed it in, concluding, as the Stanford Research Institute and the CIA had, that Geller’s paranormal powers were real — he drove me through Central Park while blindfolded! — my editor told me, figuratively and literally, he “wasn’t buying it.” “But I saw it with my own eyes!” “Do more research.” “I blindfolded him myself!” “I’m not going to let you ruin your career, dear boy. You’re just getting started. Do more research.” I was aggrieved. What good would more research do? Like a sullen teenager, I stalked out and . . . found out how to drive blindfolded. I rewrote the story — now, basically an expose — and NEW YORK put it on the cover: Okay, He Averted World War III, But Can He Bend a Spoon? Fast forward 50 years. I am in Israel for the first time, as described last week — within walking distance of the Uri Geller Museum. How could we not go? I booked a tour. (Open by appointment only, with visitors led through the museum by Uri himself. Uri donates the admission fee to Save A Child’s Heart.) It was fantastic. Including the part where he told us about being summoned by the CIA to be tested and meeting Wernher von Braun . . . who, Geller hinted, showed him frozen extraterrestrials. Here he is telling that story on TV last week (start at 2:40), almost word for word as he told it to us. And has doubtless told it to thousands of others over the years. “Do you know the Tom Lehrer song about Wernher Von Braun?” I asked. (Von Braun developed rockets for the Nazis and, later, for us.) He did not. “Send it to me!” Which I did — the operative lyric, of course, being, “‘Vunz zee rockets are up, who carez VEHR zey come down? / Zat’s not my depaahtment’ / says Wernher von Braun.”) We saw so much. Signed photos of every major star, politico, and celebrity, each with a story — his great friend John Lennon, his great friend Salvador Dali (who had his own way of bending things), his great friend Michael Jackson. A MAGA cap with four strands of Trump’s hair, a priceless Warhol, Boris Becker’s tennis racket, Pele’s signed jersey, an Egyptian clay plaque from 2,100 BC, a photo of tiny Lamb Island that he’s turned into (an uninhabitable) country, a giant model Libyan Airlines Boeing 727 given to him by Muammar Gaddafi — “an amazing, astonishing, incredible story.” Pretty much all his stories are “amazing, astonishing, incredible,” as is his enthusiasm for telling them. Some are probably even true! As he texted me after our visit (emphasis, mine): I posted this today please see my Twitter @theurigeller: << Friends I am astonished that at my age and with an unbelievable narrow repertoire of psychic demonstrations I have stayed relevant for over 50 years. The secret is: chutzpah (Israelis have it) charisma, stage presence personality and character. BUT most important controversy! Which has fueled the wheel of publicity around me, the jealous and envious minority of magicians, skeptics and Geller haters created the enigma around me the mysterious Aura the mystical the mysticism and debate. they are the ones that I have to thank they are the ones who gave me longevity. And to those who liked me I give huge respect and love to those who hate me I also send love. The other element was and is that I managed to instill spoon bending into world culture it became iconic legendary and I always said that the secret of success is originality. All this I achieved without managers or agents or image makers or PR people. Zero! I know what the media loves quirkiness, mysteriousness, bizarre elements woven into your performances. So to the young magicians, mentalists and performers I say be controversial be cool be nice and don’t give a F to the ones who envy you, just think about your success and be motivated to reach your goals. There is nothing which you cannot be do or have! Because you are the architects of your own lives. >> I was going to try to write a summary of the Uri Geller phenomenon, but with the above he more or less beat me to it. (Could he have picked up on my brain waves from 6,576 miles away?) He is in some measure a fraud — any magician who suggests his feats are paranormal is a fraud — but in full measure a showman. Wildly narcissistic — with a lot to be narcissistic about. A dynamo of positive energy who knows much of what he says is embellished (at the very least) — but who may actually believe we are routinely being visited by extra-terrestrials. Surely he doesn’t believe he persuaded the Kremlin to sign the 1987 nuclear arms treaty, as he claims. But it’s good for the show, and he’s at it again, this time, with Putin. As our afternoon was coming to an end, a young man wandered in: the Israeli Air Force’s mentalist, Yanai Elgossi. (Israel’s Air Force has a mentalist?) All of 18. One of Uri’s mentees. I took his picture with Uri and after some chit chat, he held out a deck of cards . . . had me inspect and shuffle . . . pick a card (any card) . . . and then show it to everyone — even him. Really? If he saw it, where was this headed? He took the card back and returned it to the deck. “Do you have your phone?” I did. “Where is it?” I patted my left pants pocket. My eyes began to widen as I imagined the impossibility of what was to come. “Take it out and look at the last picture in your photo album.” Oh, no! There was a photo of him . . . holding my card! The two of hearts! Of course, it is a measure of what an idiot I am (and what a good magician he is) that Yanai was able to “force” me to pick the two of hearts (here are 10 ways to force a card) and that I hadn’t realized this impossible feat was set up the minute I suggested a photo. He had held the cards next to his smile — a natural pose for a magician, so I hadn’t particularly noticed — and now, a few minutes later, there I was, looking in amazement at the photo I had taken. “Want to see another one?” Still wide-eyed (only later would I figure it out), I said, “Sure!” “Pick a number between one and a hundred.” “Okay.” “You’ve got it?” “Yes.” “What is it?” “You want me to tell you?” “Yes.” “Sixty-one.” He immediately handed me his phone and asked me to look in the Notes page. Up came a list of 100 celebrities. I scrolled down and found myself (hardly a celebrity, I need hardly add) at #61. Oh, no! Just after Ariana Grande, #60, and ahead of George Clooney #62. Okay, I know about forcing a card. But forcing a number between 1 and 100? None of us could figure out how he had done that (and Uri at least pretended to be astounded), but of course here’s the thing: Yanai never claimed to have paranormal powers; Uri became famous tricking people into believing that he did. “You’ve just spent three hours with us,” I wanted to ask as we were leaving. “Why do you take the time?” The answer, quite clearly, is that for 50 years he has loved being Uri Geller, building — and being dazzled by — his own legend. It was big fun taking that tour and seeing him again. (If you can’t get enough of this stuff — as, clearly, I cannot — here’s Andrew Weil’s account of meeting Uri in 1973 a month after my story appeared.) Have a great week.
A Potential Silver Lining March 3, 2023March 2, 2023 I postpone Uri Geller yet again because Israel’s crisis is so important. Tom Friedman: Netanyahu Is Shattering Israeli Society . . . It is a measure of how serious the situation has become that several former chiefs of the Mossad have denounced Netanyahu’s judicial putsch, most recently Danny Yatom. He told Israel Channel 13 News on Saturday night, according to Haaretz, that if Netanyahu continues with his plans to effectively eliminate the independence of Israel’s high court, fighter pilots and special forces operatives will be able to legitimately disobey the orders that come from the government. They “signed an agreement with a democratic country,” said Yatom. “But the moment that, God forbid, the country becomes a dictatorship” and they receive “an order from an illegitimate government, then I believe it would be legitimate to disobey it.” This is not idle speculation. In the past few days, some 250 officers from the Military Intelligence’s Special Operations Division have signed a public letter stating that “they would stop showing up for duty” should the government proceed with its autocratic judicial overhaul . . . . . . On Saturday night, a massive crowd gathered in central Tel Aviv to hear, among others, Ehud Barak, the former prime minister and army chief of staff. Barak could not have been more clear about what an existential moment this is for Israel. In the next few weeks, if Netanyahu’s coalition passes these “new laws of dictatorship,” Barak said, they will be “canceled by the Supreme Court” as illegal. When that happens and the government then takes steps to annul some Supreme Court rulings, the four key “gatekeepers” of Israeli security — the chief of staff of the armed forces and the heads of the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the police — will have to decide from whom to take orders. “This will create an extremely severe constitutional crisis,” said Barak. “If the threshold is crossed,” he added, “and the laws of the dictatorship are set in motion, the responsibility will pass to us, the citizens of the country. We will have to follow the tradition set by Gandhi, 80 years ago in India, and of Martin Luther King, 60 years ago in the U.S., to follow the path of nonviolent civil disobedience. … This is the right, even the duty, of citizens when their government acts in ways which break the rules of the game and stand contrary to the country’s own fundamental norms and value system.” . . . On Monday, Assaf Rappaport, the chief executive and a co-founder of Wiz, a cloud security start-up, announced that Wiz had just raised $300 million . . . ” Unfortunately,” he said, “in light of the judicial coup, the money we raised will not enter Israel. . . . Wiz has been successful thanks to the exceptional ecosystem that exists in Israel, but we are now facing an existential threat.” My Israeli host, reacting to Wednesday’s post, sees a potential silver lining: Shenkin is wrong on three issues (in reverse order of importance): > His view that that all Ashkenazi/Sephardic achievement is found on the Ashkenazi side has been factually wrong for decades and is dangerously flirting with racism. > He does not understand the amazing upswell of organized and spontaneous resistance to Bibi. Bibi himself miscalculated it and now his coalition is very shaky. I am still concerned, but can see how this situation can lead to a resurgence of leftist liberalism — this time stronger, more organized, and with widespread grassroots support within the wakened population (except among the Haredi and settler communities). All that, plus knocking Bibi out of the game. So there’s a silver lining here. Not certain by any means, but visible and very shiny. > Shenkin’s most egregious and dangerous mistake is in his bottom line — which can be summed up as “let events unfold and then reassess.” That is EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE of what the US should do. And that is the root of a lot of Mideast mistakes the US made in the past (e.g., Syria). The US can and should intervene in favor of the vast majority of Israelis who oppose Bibi’s dictatorial moves. Israeli society as a whole is standing up against Bibi and all it would take is a little nudge from the US to make his coalition tumble. Sure, in American cultural terms it would be crass and distasteful to intervene; but in Israeli and Mideast terms it will not only be effective but also earn the local ‘tribes’’ respect. By the way? I’ll keep plugging Noa Tishby’s Israel: A Simple Guide to the Most Misunderstood Country on Earth until you read or listen to it. I’m that annoying. Have a great weekend!
Forget Sydney — Is LaMDA Sentient? March 2, 2023March 1, 2023 This astonishing interview was released by a (since-fired) Google engineer eight months before Microsoft’s Sydney fell in love with its New York Times interviewer. Yet somehow I just saw the transcript yesterday when a friend used Descript to give LaMDA a voice (even if she mispronounces “Les Miserables” and “ennui”). Listen. Remember Pong? Remember HAL? (“I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t do that.”) I’d say we’re now a lot closer to the latter than the former. The Singularity is near. (Once it has been reached, Ray Kurzweil says (and Wikipedia summarizes), “machine intelligence will be infinitely more powerful than all human intelligence combined. Afterwards, he predicts, intelligence will radiate outward from the planet until it saturates the universe.”)
From Georgia To Jerusalem, With Omaha In Between March 1, 2023February 28, 2023 The Georgia grand jury forewoman did nothing wrong. Indictments are finally on their way. Warren Buffett’s annual report. Annual wisdom, just out. Budd Shenkin on Israel’s shift toward illiberalism. Tragic. (To understand — specifically — how Israel is about to lose its democracy, here are the subtleties of Netanyahu’s strategy.*) *An “MK” is a “member of the Knesset” — as MP, in Britain, is a “member of Parliament.”