Compare And Contrast July 31, 2023July 30, 2023 CONTRAST #1: Trump talks; Biden delivers (30 seconds). CONTRAST #2: We want to make it easy to vote; they want to make it hard (e.g., Texas) — and to make administering elections fairly hazardous (e.g., Arizona). If you care about women’s rights or gun safety . . . about delivering rural broadband or revitalizing our C-minus-rated infrastructure . . . about confronting climate change or preserving democracy . . . this stuff should matter a million times more than whether the NCAA guidelines on trans women in sports are sufficiently stringent. But that’s our challenge: getting people to focus on what’s important. And awakening more voters to the fact that — CONTRAST #3 — the economy does better under Democrats than Republicans. And the stock market — CONTRAST #4 — does much better. But because Republicans will try to distract voters with stuff that should matter a million times less, indulge me on two of them: > Trans girls in sports. Did you even know the NCAA has guidelines? The once-Grand Old Party never mentions it. For high school sports, policies vary all over the map and I happily concede reasonable people can disagree on how this should work. But reasonable people might also disagree about whether whether 140-pound 12-year-olds should be allowed to play football. The median 12-year-old American boy weighs 89 pounds. Why is he — or even his 125-pound classmate — at less of a disadvantage against the 140-pounder than is a 12-year-old girl on the field hockey team playing against a trans girl? The trans girl may (or may not) be stronger or faster or heavier than the others — but someone has to be. Why can it never be a trans girl? Or, as above, a 140-pound 12-year-old boy? My own preference would be to leave this to local officials who strive to be fair and who care about all children — including trans children. Adults who love their trans children, I believe, are more to be admired than adults who hate or disown or otherwise discriminate against trans children. My two cents. Republican leadership may disagree. But wherever you stand on this issue, it’s one-millionth as important as the issues the once-G.O.P. hopes to distract us from. > Voter ID. Voter suppression has long been a key Republican tactic. An NRA card is fine, but not a university-issued student ID? A crime to supply water to voters standing for hours in line? Really? I can’t count the number of times people have asked me why, if you need photo ID to borrow books from a library, you shouldn’t need one to vote. That’s meant to be a conversation stopper, but actually it’s bogus. Library theft is an actual problem; voter ID fraud is not. Some people really do intentionally steal library books. Others don’t return them because — like practically all of us — they’re lazy or forgetful or tend to procrastinate. And/or because — once the books are overdue — they want to avoid fines. In short: there is a problem. The library card helps somewhat to mitigate it. With voting, there is no problem. The number of people who pretend to be someone they’re not and vote illegally is vanishingly small — and those criminals are at least as likely to be Republicans as Democrats, so the two vanishingly small numbers more or less cancel each other out anyway. The rightwing Heritage Foundation keeps a database of all proven cases of voter fraud and have come up with a headline number of 1,437. And yes, for every proven case there may be 100 that go undetected. But this database covers decades. During which time billions of votes have been cast. And it includes all kinds of voter fraud — not just identity fraud. And if you drill down on a state — Pennsylvania, say — you’ll see that (a) there have been just a handful of cases since 1994 and (b) Heritage does not report whether it was Democrats or Republicans who cheated. This may not always be knowable, but even where it’s not, it can usually be inferred. And I’m pretty sure that if the preponderance of the vanishingly small number of identity fraud crimes were committed by Democrats, Heritage would have added a “party affiliation” column to its table. Republicans know it’s not easy for people who can’t afford cars to get government issued ID’s, especially if they’re poor or housebound or working two jobs with no time to spare — and that such people are far more likely to vote Democrat than Republican. And that’s the reason they use the library card analogy to justify this unneeded barrier to voting. But wherever you stand on THIS issue, it, too, is one-millionth as important as the issues the once-G.O.P. hopes to distract us from. Have a great week.
World War I and Project 2025 July 28, 2023July 27, 2023 Was Gen. Mark Milley right last year about the war in Ukraine? A seemingly spot-on perspective. But so long as the Ukrainians want to fight, we should support them. Meanwhile, with Americans burning up this weekend and the increased risk of severe climate change (like: out-of-the-movies severe), our Republicans friends — who understand that fossil fuels and a burning planet are no more related than tobacco and cancer or than Trump’s January 6th rally and the innocent “tourism” that followed — have a plan to “block the expansion of the electrical grid for wind and solar energy; slash funding for the EPA environmental justice office; shutter the Energy Department’s renewable energy offices; prevent states from adopting California’s electric car standards; and give Republican state officials more power to regulate polluting industries.” Stay cool. Help if you can, with time or treasure.
Crises! Lies! And A New Stock To Consider July 27, 2023July 26, 2023 Robert Reich lays out the Five Made Up Crises the right is using to distract voters from how well Bidenomics is working (inflation down! real wages rising! unemployment at record lows! factory-construction booming! 401k’s robust!) and what a terrible threat to democracy the right has become. It’s A New Kind of Fascism, writes this history professor in The Atlantic. “I’ve resisted using the word until now, but something menacing and novel is taking shape with the possibility of a second Trump term.” How is this even a possibility in America? Thom Hartmann explains how demagogues seize power. It’s scary, and it’s real, and we’re not going to let it happen. I know practically nothing about the Internet of Things, 4G, 5G, or the French company Sequans. But I’m betting Maria Marced does, or she wouldn’t recently have agreed to join the board. SQNS at $2.37 a share — only with money I can truly afford to lose.
MAGA Gold July 26, 2023July 25, 2023 It’s dumb to buy gold — and a whole lot dumber to buy it this way, as so many MAGA Republicans have and do. Like Ed DeSanto, “a semiretired Florida medical coder and an avid right-wing radio fan.” . . . DeSanto’s $100,000 investment netted him just $53,000 worth of gold and silver . . . meaning the coins had been marked up 92 percent over the value of the metal. . . . The only surprise here is that Trump himself is not somehow in on the scam. But Giuliani and Ted Cruz are. So many fundamentally nice people have fallen so deeply into the right-wing’s alternative reality. One of them — a faithful reader — took the time to respond to yesterday‘s comment on APE and AMC. You may recall that it concluded: At what price the combined stock will trade after the two merge — and in the years to come — I have no idea. But I’d rather own nine-tenths of a share for $1.80 than a full share for $5.85. To which he responded . . . Or would you rather own nine-tenths of a Hunter artwork? . . . offering this clip from The Yeshiva World: ENDLESS SCANDALS: Joe Biden Appointed Buyer of Hunter’s Paintings to Prominent Position As President Joe Biden campaigned for the presidency, he promised to maintain an “absolute wall” between his official duties and his family’s private business interests. This pledge came into focus when Hunter Biden’s artwork debut in a New York art gallery in 2021 garnered attention with prices soaring up to $500,000. You can read the whole article, but the (unpaid) “prominent position” the buyer was appointed to was not ambassador to France, as you might expect, or Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. It was not head of the Federal Trade Commission, Chief of Protocol, or even Poet Laurate. No, it was a seat — one of 19 — on the Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad. It’s hard to get more prominent than that! What’s more, this “SCANDAL” was brought to light by “an explosive expose.” Or at least that’s how it seemed to my correspondent. He wasn’t interested in the weird mispricing of APE and AMC. He had no comment on the situation in Israel or the struggle to preserve our democracy we face here. And he certainly had nothing to say about this. What occupied his attention and he successfully brought to mine was the “explosive” revelation that a long-time Democratic mega-donor, who had overpaid for one of Hunter’s paintings, landed an unpaid seat on a commission that neither he nor you nor I nor almost anyone else had ever heard of. Welcome to the cult. BONUS Why All the stimulus was a good idea and not the cause of inflation.
Democracy Vs. Autocracy July 25, 2023July 24, 2023 Sunday’s first “Israel” post was quickly followed by a second, so if you missed it — and want to see the good that planting an olive tree, or a whole grove, could do (and how little it costs) — check it out. As you know, Israel took a giant step backward yesterday. Even so, a young Israeli friend writes: It’s a setback but I think/hope that we can leap out of it stronger and emboldened. The liberal secular public in Israel is galvanizing. The current head of the Mossad spoke to his employees yesterday and was quoted as saying: “if it comes to it I assure you I will stand on the right side of history”. All former heads of the Israeli defense apparatus are against this move. The name of the game now is perseverance – fighting on with no loss of enthusiasm! Nick Kristoff thinks It’s Time to Start Discussing the Unmentionable. Here at home, the same fight is underway: Autocracy versus democracy. A strongman who refuses to give up power, vows retribution, kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside, admires Putin; a demagog and a liar who assaults women and stiffs creditors, vilifies the press and the FBI, watches gleefully as rioters storm our nation’s Capitol refusing — for hours — to call them off; a bully and a narcissist who could walk down Fifth Avenue shooting people without losing votes. (“You’re damn straight he could!” shout his supporters when they read a sentence like that.) Versus a normal Administration that respects the Constitution, the rule of law, and civility; works long hours trying to make life better, safer, and healthier for its citizens and for generations to come. Jonathan Alter says 2024 should be about A, B, C, D . . . Abortion, Bidenomics, Climate, Democracy . . . but that the last of these is the one to emphasize. This is an election to decide whether we keep the world’s longest-running democracy — a beacon to the world — or watch the light go out. If you can help, click here. Barbenheimer‘s giant opening weekend pushed AMC stock up more than 30% yesterday, closing at $5.85, The nearly identical shares we own, APE, closed unchanged at $1.80. Fairly soon, the two stocks will be one and the same . . . although a lawsuit wound up changing the terms slightly: instead of each APE share converting into an AMC share, it will convert into just under nine-tenths of a share. At what price the combined stock will trade after the two merge — and in the years to come — I have no idea. But I’d rather own nine-tenths of a share for $1.80 than a full share for $5.85.
Showdown Time For Israel July 23, 2023July 23, 2023 Conservative columnist Max Boot: Israel’s biggest security threat is Benjamin Netanyahu. . . . [He] doesn’t seem to care that his policies are undermining Israeli democracy . . . Like Trump, he seems to care about nothing but holding onto power . . . President Biden, a true friend of Israel, has been trying to warn Bibi off the destructive path he is on — but to no avail. . . . Unfortunately, Biden’s positive influence is being diluted by Bibi’s fervent Republican supporters, who ridiculously accuse Biden of being anti-Israel. Republicans seem as eager to enable Netanyahu’s assault on Israeli democracy as they are Trump’s assault on U.S. democracy. . . . Worth reading in full. (What’s that? You don’t have a few bucks to subscribe to the Washington Post? “Democracy Dies in Darkness!”) Even more important, Tom Friedman: Only Biden Can Save Israel Now. . . . Mr. President, when we met last Tuesday and you gave me your very measured statement urging Netanyahu not to “rush” this legislation through without “the broadest possible consensus” — which he so clearly does not have — it came as an electric shock to the Israeli political system, dominating the news for several days. It was such a shock because a vast majority of Israelis believe — rightly — that you are a true friend and that your advice came from the heart. But I’m afraid this Israeli government needs another dose of your tough love — not just from your heart but from the heart of U.S. strategic interests as well. Because Netanyahu is plowing ahead despite your urgings. Despite a warning from more than 1,100 Israeli Air Force pilots and technicians that they will not fly for a dictatorship. Despite an open letter signed by dozens of former top security officials, including former heads of the Israel Defense Forces, Mossad, Shin Bet and police beseeching the prime minister to stop. Despite Israel’s top business forum warning of “irreversible and destructive consequences on the Israeli economy.” Despite fears that this could eventually fracture unit cohesion in the base of the Israeli Army. And despite a remarkable, largely spontaneous five-day march by everyday Israelis from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the likes of which had never happened before. . . . . . . If I may suggest, Mr. President, what is needed is that your secretary of state, your secretary of defense, your Treasury secretary, your commerce secretary, your secretary of agriculture, your U.S. trade representative, your attorney general, your C.I.A. director and your Joint Chiefs call their Israeli counterparts today and let them know that if Netanyahu moves ahead — without a consensus, fracturing Israeli society and its military — it will not only undermine the shared values between our two countries but also do serious damage to our own strategic interests in the Middle East. And U.S. interests are very much our business. Because as the Knesset moves to vote on this issue on Monday, something very important could break in Israel and in our relationship with Israel. And once it’s gone, it will never come back. I hope that it is not already too late. . . . Also worth reading in full. (What’s that? You don’t have a few bucks to subscribe to the New York Times?)
More Than An Olive Branch July 22, 2023 But before we get to that, some reading suggestions . . . Sweat is a prize-winning play so powerful that reading it as I just did — with my eyes, not my ears — may actually beat seeing it on stage. More time to stop and reflect on what these characters are going through. I can’t begin to do it justice. The Life and Times of the Thunderbolt Kid, by contrast, is Bill Bryson’s memoir about growing up in the 50’s, and how amazing America was back then, even without the polio vaccine, Novocaine, widespread air conditioning, the Internet, frequent flier miles, index funds, or iPhones. (What am I leaving out?) Like everything Bryson writes (most recently plugged: One Summer: America, 1927): fascinating and fun. If you’re looking for a short page-turner before Jack Smith’s “January 6” indictment is released, try his current indictment — a 10-minute read about Trump’s theft of documents, refusal to return them, and lying about having them. And for something heartening and even shorter: Morgan Stanley credits Biden’s leadership with “much stronger” than expected GDP growth. Inflation has fallen for 12 straight months, real wages are rising, predictions of an almost certain recession are being walked back — you knew all that — but did you know this? In the four years of Donald Trump’s administration, total spending on manufacturing facilities grew by five percent. During the first two years of Biden’s administration, manufacturing investment more than doubled, and about 800,000 manufacturing jobs were created. These remarkable results are the outcome of Biden policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and its green technology provisions, the infrastructure bill, and the CHIPS Act. — Robert Reich And now the olive branch. I am strongly pro Israel . . . anti Netanyahu‘s attempt to destroy Israeli democracy . . . pro the Palestinian people. Read Israel: A Simple Guide to The Most Misunderstood Country on Earth to see how one can be all three — and why many superbly well-meaning American college kids (and others) have it wrong. In any event, here is a new, non-political, peaceful, productive way to help: Treedom For Palestine. Not just “an olive branch” — a whole olive tree grove, if you’re wealthy enough to sponsor a whole farm, or else what works out to $24 a tree. Have a great week.
Get Out of Our Bedroom! July 20, 2023July 19, 2023 The party that once stood for individual freedom wants to: > have the final say in women’s reproductive health care decisions; > get between parents, kids, their doctors and mental health professionals and have the final say on gender-affirming care. Who better than middle-aged straight white non-professionals to make these decisions? Ideally, of course, the once-Grand Old Party would prefer that trans people simply not exist. (It’s analogous to the way many Republicans — including their undisputed leader — wish non-white people would go back to where they came from.) But at present, all they can officially do is treat trans people badly and not much care when they’re murdered. One wonders what might be next. Banning contraception? As you may know, 195 House Republicans last year voted to block the Right to Contraception Act. Have you seen this 30-second spot?
Comparing Formers July 19, 2023July 19, 2023 Talk about contrasts! This guy asked President Obama if he’s depressed. So cool. (Obama’s overarching life advice, albeit not part of this interview: “Be kind and be useful.”) The current former president (“I’d like to punch him in the face”), meanwhile, kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside and now is gearing up to be America’s first Mussolini, ending our 247-year experiment with democracy: . . . Mr. Trump and his associates have a broader goal: to alter the balance of power by increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House, according to a review of his campaign policy proposals and interviews with people close to him. . . . In case you haven’t read the full story, it’s worth your time. We all have demons and angels battling within us, like wolves. (“But grandfather!” the children ask. “Which wolf will win?!” To which the old Cherokee replies: “The one you feed.”) For the past 7 years, the G.O.P. has been feeding the wrong wolf. Sure, Bush 43 was a terrible president in tremendously important ways. And Jimmy Carter was in many ways a failed president. But in retirement, Bush has been gracious and sane; Carter has been a terrific force force good — as have been former presidents Clinton and Obama and, for that matter, former vice presidents Gore and Biden. (Their former veeps, Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney, and Mike Pence, may not have done much for the world since leaving office, but all three have endorsed democracy and the rule of law, in defiance of today’s G.O.P. leadership. That may be a low bar, but in today’s G.O.P. it actually takes a lot of courage.) Trump is in a totally different ballpark. It’s not conservative versus liberal or taciturn versus gregarious or handsome versus brainy or tall versus short — or any of the other contrasts we’re used to seeing. It’s fascist-dictator-wannabe versus all the other men and women who have ever run for the presidency since 1789. ANIX A hopeful update on one of our crazy speculations, made only with money we can truly afford to lose.
Kitchen Table Versus Private Jet Economics July 18, 2023July 18, 2023 I’m forever writing speeches in my head. Here’s a piece of one I’d like to see the President give: My team wanted me to call what we’re doing Bidenomics. That’s what the Wall Street Journal and some others have been calling it. But you know, folks: it’s not about me, it’s about you. It’s not Biden economics, no matter what the Wall Street Journal says. At the end of the day, it’s KITCHEN TABLE economics. Middle out, bottom up, Democratic KITCHEN TABLE economics. As contrasted with Republican trickle-down PRIVATE JET economics. And do you know what history has shown us? KITCHEN TABLE economics — growing the economy with an emphasis on opportunity and a strong middle class — has always worked. But trickle-down, PRIVATE JET economics — with its tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy — has never worked for anybody but those at the very top. PRIVATE JET trickle-down Republican economics has just increased inequality. The rich have gotten dramatically richer — trillions of dollars richer — while most hard workers have found it tougher and tougher to get by. Until now. We’re still early days, but with inflation coming down for 12 straight months and unemployment lower than it’s been in 50 years, real wages have begun to rise. Getting a little ahead of the game for a change. That’s the kind of economics — whatever you call it — I want to keep coming. And it will keep coming as we put people to work at good jobs revitalizing America’s infrastructure. We’re just getting started. And by the way? Two things. One: You know where a majority of those infrastructure dollars are going? To the states of Republicans who voted against our MAKING these investments — but are now taking credit for them. I don’t care: all 50 states matter to me. But imagine that. Okay, that’s one. Here’s two: When I talk about PRIVATE JET economics only helping the rich — that’s true. But I want to tell you something. I love the rich. Or at least a lot of them. I’m serious! Some of my strongest supporters are rich, God love ’em. And they’ve worked hard to get rich and done a helluva lot of good along the way. KITCHEN TABLE economics isn’t about punishing the rich. It’s not about hurting folks with private jets and 200-foot yachts. It’s about helping America’s middle class, and those busting their butts to climb INTO the middle class. THAT’s who Democrats are fighting for. And do you know the best part? When the middle class does well, the economy does well, profits grow, and the ultra-wealthy do great. KITCHEN TABLE economics winds up working well for everybody. I couldn’t fit it in anywhere, but maybe a line, too, like, “You know, I’m basically an Amtrak guy. All my life. But I get the appeal of private jets. Mine’s called Air Force One. You own it; but for a while, I’m the guy who gets to ride in it. Thank you for that, folks. It makes my job a whole lot easier.” What do you think? CHRA / CHRB Those of us who bought CHRA three months ago — with money we could truly afford to lose — as suggested here, here, and here at around $2.75, $2.20, and $1.40, respectively — got bought out Thursday at $6. And I like to think the game may not be over. The company was arguably worth much more. But for now, at least, we’ll have to settle for a quick double, triple, or quadruple. Those who bought CHRB instead (or in addition) between $9.50 and $13.50 as suggested here and here saw it close at $16.49 last night, even as we pocketed the first of what should a dozen or so 53-cent quarterly interest payments before being paid $25 at maturity. So that one, too, may be a winner. RECAF / PRKR / BOREF To emphasize the “money you can truly afford to lose” part of this game, I would note that those of us who bought these three — among lots of others — have not fared. The game’s not entirely over, to be sure. (What’s another year or five when we’ve been waiting 24 years for BOREF?). But of RECAF, my primary source writes: I’m at a loss. They didn’t drill all the wells they said they would. Instead they’ve been gathering more seismic and aero mag data. Unfortunately they’re now running out of money and will need a partnership/farm-in/buyout by a large company to pay for more drilling. The geology turned out to be different from what they expected to find. But I know a couple of geologists who still like the prospects. And another who’s sold most of his. Then there are respected folks in the online communities who think the company is nothing but a scam and have sold out entirely. I have to admit that their pessimism makes some sense given all the missed targets and broken promises. I’ve sold half of my holdings at prices between $0.90 and $1.15. I sure never expected we’d be in this position at this point. I am not in the camp of “it’s a scam,” as buying a rig, shipping it to Africa and drilling three wells seems like a lot of effort just to fleece shareholders. But it’s getting ugly. You know me well enough to know that — except for shares on which I can take a tax loss — I’m holding on. Not out of any logic. The prospect of losing $1 just hurts me less than the prospect of missing out on making $5 — vanishingly slim though that prospect may be. If I were fully rational, I’d be Star Trek’s Spock, with pointy ears.