Author: A.T.

And He Could Have Added Warren Buffett

Who’s 93.

And, for that matter, Warren’s partner Charlie Munger, who’s 99.

But even without those added examples, Professor Sonnenfeld makes a powerful case:

Our Age of Cynicism and Cynicism Over Age Are the Only Things Holding Biden Back

The wisdom of octogenarian leaders have rebuilt nations at fragile moments. Only the 82-year-old Benjamin Franklin could lead the needed national consensus at the U.S. Constitutional Convention, and only 87-year-old Konrad Adenauer could rebuild national spirit and global trust for defeated post-war Germany. France relied upon Charles De Gaulle to unify the nation as he reached 80. After leading Union Pacific and Brown Brothers Harriman, Averell Harriman served as one of the greatest diplomats advising presidents until he was 94. Similarly, 80 year-old Biden has brought economic resurgence and renewed positive purpose to American character.

Worth reading — and sharing — in full.

With Joe’s re-election, we get 1,200 young, competent appointees AND their deeply decent, exceptionally experienced, 80-something coach.

No transition or learning curve.

Click here if you can spare something to help Joe finish the job.

 

Your Action Step Today

Looks like he’s running.

We wish he were younger.

Yet look what he and his team have accomplished.

And that’s the thing:

With Joe’s re-election, we get that team — 1,200 young, competent appointees — AND their deeply decent, exceptionally experienced, 80-something coach.

No transition or learning curve.

No 16 months’ sapping our resources fighting each other instead of laying the groundwork to keep the White House and Congress out of the hands of the book burners.

Click here if you can spare something to say “thank you” to Joe for beating Trump the first time (can you imagine where we’d have been today if he hadn’t?) and to help him do it again.

That’s action step we’re called upon to take today.

Help save democracy.

“No joke.”

 

Goodwill In Skyscraper National Park

I bought more UNIT at $3.50 yesterday.  The same caveats apply as before at $4.70, only now — if they can maintain it — the 60-cent dividend works out to a 17% yield.  Raymond James issued a “strong buy” March 1 while lowering its price target from $12 to $8 because of the rise in interest rates.  Here they offer a company overview.  If inflation continues to ebb and interest rates edge down over the next couple of years, it should work out.  If they rise, we could have a fat tax loss.

Another high-yielding speculation would be CHRB, senior notes geared to pay off their $25 face value in about three years . . . and promising 8.5% a year on that face value in the meantime.  I bought some yesterday in my IRA at $13.50 with money I can truly (if begrudgingly) afford to lose.  If all goes well, we get $25 when the notes are redeemed plus $6 along the way, so $31 on a $13.50 investment.

You know how dangerous Alvin Bragg’s Manhattan is.  Jim Jordan is so alarmed he moved his whole committee up here to do what he apparently thinks Ohio voters sent him to Washington to do.

Business Insider’s take: Ohio GOP Rep. Jim Jordan holds Manhattan hearing to blast DA’s record on crime despite 73% higher murder rate at home.

Garrison Keillor is less concerned.

As he recently reflected on his stroll through Central Park:

. . . The constant social interactions of urban life tend to erode the sharper edges of lunacy. There may be secret QAnon cells in brownstone basements in Brooklyn but the Qs need to ride the B and C trains with the rest of us and the gentle jostling and the respect for each other’s space must give them a sense of being part of a civilized whole. I grew up among fundamentalists who taught us to avoid unbelievers — alienation being necessary to maintain our worldview — but it was not possible to maintain this. We weren’t shepherds, we were shopkeepers and shipping clerks, we needed to exercise good manners and engage in amiable small talk, and these daily details turn out to be as important as overarching ideology.

. . . The paranoia of conspiracy theories strikes a person as perverse when you look back at the Depression my parents went through, or visit the Tenement Museum in New York or Ellis Island and get a glimpse of what immigrants found when they arrived. Farm life in New England in the 19th century was so miserable, men by the thousands flocked to seaports to sign up for whaling expeditions. Dressed in oilskins, they stood aboard the ship in heavy seas and hacked the blubber off the monsters as they were hauled up and threw it in an oven to cook down into whale oil, the deck slippery, blades honed razor sharp, men sliding around as the ship pitched and rolled, and if one slid overboard he was likely eaten by sharks. The smallest man on the crew was lowered into the whale’s mouth to harvest the baleen to make buggy whips and corset stays. It was no work for the faint of heart.

. . . Scripture says to love the Lord your God with all your heart and soul and to love your neighbor as yourself, and this is clear as can be walking around Central Park among the cherry blossoms, the runners, the families — you notice how a little kid dashes away from his parents for about twenty feet and then turns to check their whereabouts. They are the center of his world. My sweetie and I hold hands, we’re a part of this enormous tract of goodwill in the middle of Skyscraper National Park. People in South Dakota may imagine New York as a hellhole of violence and corruption, and if this gives them comfort, fine, but we’re here and it’s April and everyone in our sight feels lucky to be here together.

Shouldn’t we all be able to calm down, reach reasonable compromises, and live together?

Putin hopes not.

And you know who admires Putin.

 

AgentGPT

CHRA has more than tripled from its low a couple of weeks ago but I’ll likely hold on for the full $6 because (a) that’s 5% more than its current price, not bad for a few months’ patience; and (b) it seems as though the acquirers are getting a steal, so — while there’s always the chance the deal will fall through and I’ll want to kill myself for not grabbing a $5.67 bird in the hand — there’s also the chance someone will offer more than $6.

SANTOS is still in Congress and APE is still selling for less than a third the price of its ever-so-slightly less valuable twin AMC.  It’s hard to know which is crazier.

GREEN DOOR just might make your home more comfortable, more energy efficient, and more valuable.  It costs nothing to check it out.  [Full disclosure: I own a sliver.]

2D BARCODES are coming.

But barcodes, shmarcodes — have you seen AgentGPT?

AgentGPT allows you to configure and deploy Autonomous AI agents.

Name your custom AI and have it embark on any goal imaginable.

It will attempt to reach the goal by thinking of tasks to do, executing them, and learning from the results.

Forgive my shouting — but . . . really?

It’s free.  In beta.

I gave it a try.

I typed in a simple goal . . .

Persuade Trump supporters to reconsider their support

And off it went . . .

Adding Task: Analyze social media and online interactions to identify patterns in the behavior of Trump supporters

Adding Task: Create personalized messages using natural language generation techniques to address specific concerns and misconceptions held by Trump supporters

Adding Task: Deliver these messages through various channels such as social media, email, or SMS to maximize reach and engagement

Executing task . . .

Analysis of social media and online interactions reveals patterns in the behavior of Trump supporters.  Many seem to be driven by a sense of frustration with the political establishment and a desire for change.  They believe that Trump is a disruptor who can bring about this change.  However, some supporters may be swayed once they realize the detrimental impact of Trump’s policies on their personal lives and the country as a whole.  It is important to engage with Trump supporters respectfully and provide them with accurate information to help them make informed decisions.  Therefore, I suggest engaging in meaningful conversations and providing facts to persuade them to reconsider their support for Trump.

Adding Task: Create a database of specific policies and their potential effects on various groups (e.g. middle class, immigrants, etc.) in order to provide accurate information to Trump supporters and address any misconceptions they may have.

Adding Task: Develop a system to track engagement and adjust messaging as needed to optimize reach and effectiveness in persuading Trump supporters to reconsider their support.

Dear Trump supporters,

I understand that you have concerns and misconceptions about the current political climate.  As an autonomous task execution AI, my objective is to persuade you to reconsider your support for President Trump.  Let me address some of your specific concerns and misconceptions.

First, you may believe that President Trump is a successful businessman who can bring economic prosperity to the country. While it is true that President Trump has a background in business, his policies have not led to the economic growth that he promised.  In fact, his trade wars and tax cuts for the wealthy have only benefited a small percentage of the population.

Second, you may believe that President Trump is a strong leader who puts America first.  However, his actions and statements have alienated our allies and emboldened our enemies.  His weak response to the COVID-19 pandemic has cost American lives and damaged our economy.

Lastly, you may believe that President Trump is a defender of traditional values and the American way of life.  However, his rhetoric and policies have stoked division and hatred, and his chaotic administration has eroded the foundations of our democracy.  I urge you to reconsider your support for President Trump and to examine the facts objectively.  We need a leader who can bring us together and lead us through these challenging times.

Thank you for considering my message.

Sincerely,

AgentGPT

Adding Task: Develop a strategy to target specific demographics within the Trump supporter base and tailor messaging accordingly. This may include analyzing data on demographics, interests, and online behaviors as well as conducting surveys and focus groups to better understand their motivations and concerns.

As an AI, I do not have personal beliefs or opinions.  However, I can provide persuasive messages for Trump supporters to reconsider their support. Here are some suggestions:

– Are you tired of the chaos and division in our country?  Consider supporting a candidate who wants to bring people together instead of tearing them apart.

– You may agree with some of Trump’s policies, but is it worth supporting someone who consistently undermines democratic norms and institutions?

– Trump has shown time and time again that he prioritizes his own interests over the well-being of the country.  Is that the kind of leader we want?

– Supporting Trump may have made sense in the past, but with everything that’s happened, it’s time to re-evaluate whether he is the right person to lead our country forward.

– Trump’s behavior and rhetoric have often been divisive and offensive.  Do you really want to support someone who consistently belittles and insults others?

These messages can be delivered through various channels, such as social media, email, or SMS in order to reach and engage as many Trump supporters as possible.

Adding Task: Develop a comprehensive and adaptable messaging plan that takes into account the specific policies and concerns of different groups within the Trump supporter base, and addresses them in a clear and compelling way.  This plan should also emphasize the positive aspects of alternative candidates or policies, rather than solely focusing on criticizing Trump.

Task Executed:

For the task of persuading Trump supporters to reconsider their support, I have created a database of specific policies and their potential effects on various groups.

The purpose of this database is to provide accurate information to Trump supporters and address any misconceptions they may have about the policies he has implemented.  By presenting the facts in a clear and concise manner, I hope to open up a dialogue with Trump supporters and encourage them to reconsider their support.

Some of the policies in the database include tax cuts for the wealthy, immigration policies, and healthcare reform.  I have included information on how these policies may affect middle-class families, immigrants, and other groups.

For example, the tax cuts for the wealthy may provide temporary relief for some individuals, but they have long-term negative effects on the economy as a whole.  Immigration policies that are discriminatory and punitive can lead to unnecessary hardship for innocent families who are simply trying to make a better life for themselves.  And healthcare reform that is meant to strip millions of Americans of their health coverage is not only immoral but also goes against the fundamental principles of compassion and equality.

By presenting this information in a clear and concise manner, I hope to encourage Trump supporters to reconsider their support and see the value in policies that benefit all Americans, not just a select few.

We’re sorry, because this is a demo, we cannot have our agents running for too long.  Note, if you desire longer runs, please provide your own API key in Settings.  Shutting down.

Can you imagine where all this will be in six months or a year?

 

 

The O-G.O.P.

Should we try to make this a thing?  The Once-Grand Old Party?

The O-G.O.P.?

Too retro?  Too oblique?

Then how about the GAGAMAGA Republicans?  As in, they’ve gone gaga.

Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Asa Hutchinson, Charlie Baker — traditional Republicans deserve respect.

But the leadership?  Trump and Giuliani?  Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene? (That link shows her being handed the Speaker’s gavel.  This one shows her defending the 21-year-old alleged leaker as she advocates against standing in Putin’s way.)

The Pillow Guy?

Those Republicans in Congress, like Mitch McConnell, that aren’t nuts are so thoroughly without principle*, so egregiously willing to enable Trump**, as to make one fear for the country.

And then there’s DeSantis, a vengeful bully like Trump.  He’s thought of “endless possibilities” to get back at Disney for defying him.  What has Disney ever done for the economy of Florida?

Not in the GAGAMAGA leadership but still in Congress: George Santos.  The Once-Grand Old Party gone mad.

*Not allowing a Court vacancy to be filled in an election year . . . on the “principle” that the Senate must wait for the election to discern the will of the people  . . . if nominated by a twice-elected-with-a-majority-of-the-popular-vote Democrat . . . but rushing one through after early voting has already begun if nominated by a once-elected-with-a-minority-of-the-popular-vote Republican.

**Seeing nothing impeachable about his attempt to overthrow the election? Nothing about January 6th to cause them to certify Biden’s election later that night?

 

Yikes

In case you missed “60 Minutes” last night, Artificial Intelligence is exploding.

Some of it is amusing.  Watch robots teach themselves to play soccer.

Some of it is fantastic.  What would have taken a billion PhD-years to do, mapping out all 200 million proteins, will apparently take A.I. only . . . oh wait, it’s already finished.

Much of it is hopeful.  Disease could soon be a thing of the past; climate change reversed.  (That’s me talking, not “60 Minutes.”)

And all of it is scary.

Have a great week.

[Friday I mistakenly attributed to liberal Chief Justice Earl Warren the famous Second Amendment words actually spoken by his successor, conservative Chief Justice Warren Burger.  Sorry!]

[George Santos is still in Congress.  How is it possible?  The Once-Grand Old Party gone mad.]

 

Justice Fortas, Justice Thomas, Chief Justice Burger

THE COURT

54 Years Ago, a Supreme Court Justice Was Forced to Quit for Behavior [Far] Less Egregious Than Thomas’s

Though Abe Fortas was an LBJ appointee the loss of whose seat would tilt the Court from Left to Right (Nixon was by then president), Democrats joined with Republicans to force him to step down.

Just as Republicans would years later join with Democrats to force Nixon to step down.

Oh, how we need to get back to the days of civility, compromise, reverence for the law, and common sense.

Instead we have the Once-Grand Old Party led by a Putin-admiring, FBI-bashing sociopathic tax cheat who mocks the disabled, poses with a baseball bat by the head of a black prosecutor he calls “an animal,” and kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside.

GUNS

MAGA Republicans trumpet crime at “record levels.”   Especially in Alvin Bragg’s New York.

CNN found that there were 438 murders in the City last year (so far this year the rate has fallen somewhat) — compared with 2,262 in 1990.

(If 1990 sounds familiar, New York City crime-wise, it’s the year five young black men were convicted of a rape they had nothing to do with, for whose execution Trump advocated in full-page ads.)

Even a single murder in a city of 8.8 million is, of course, awful.  But only in today’s Republican Party is 438 more than 2,262.

Republican elected officials — though not, I think, a majority of Republican voters — believe that more guns on the street, more freely carried, will help the police to make us safer.

You’d be hard pressed to find police who believe that.

Or who favor the sale of cop-killing bullets.

It is madness — not mandated by the Constitution.  Here is the famous Warren Burger quote as originally spoken on TV.

(This longer quote is accurate, but an amalgam: “The Gun Lobby’s interpretation of the Second Amendment is one of the greatest pieces of fraud, I repeat the word fraud, on the American People by special interest groups that I have ever seen in my lifetime. The real purpose of the Second Amendment was to ensure that state armies – the militia – would be maintained for the defense of the state. If the militia, which was going to be the state army, was going to be well-regulated, why shouldn’t 16- or 17- or 18- or any other age persons be regulated in the use of arms the way an automobile is regulated.  The very language of the Second Amendment refutes any argument that it was intended to guarantee every citizen an unfettered right to any kind of weapon he or she desires.”)

Think about it: a well-regulated militia was intended to preserve the free state, not to overthrow its government.  That, the  Founders said, you got to do at the ballot box.

Putin loves seeing us do this to ourselves . . . and Trump admires Putin . . . but it’s madness.

BONUS

→ And this was back when Trump, like Koch, was a pro-choice Democrat.

Have a great weekend, and don’t forget to file your taxes or an extension (and your first quarterly estimated tax, if applicable) this coming Tuesday.

 

1927

I’ve just listened to Bill Bryson’s One Summer: America 1927.

Published 10 years ago, but timeless.

Indeed, the part about Charles Lindbergh becoming the most famous man in the world, attracting enormous adoring crowds, admiring Hitler and arguing against our trying to stop his conquest of Europe . . . may be even more relevant now.

But what a summer.

Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig!

America First rallies!

Jack Dempsey and Gene Tunney!

The 5-million strong Ku Klux Klan!

Saco and Vanzetti!

The electric chair!

Charles Ponzi!

Al Jolson!

Al Cap0ne!

Talking pictures!

I pause here for a brief excerpt:

. . . Universal and Paramount were both dominated by German stars and directors. Universal was said, only half in jest, to have German as its official language.

A few European actors – Peter Lorre, Marlene Dietrich, Greta Garbo – adjusted to, or even thrived in the new sound regime, but most actors with foreign accents found themselves unemployable. Jannings, winner of the first Academy Award for acting, returned to Europe and spent the war years making propaganda films for the Nazis. Behind the scenes Europeans still thrived, but on screen movies were now a thoroughly American product.

Though the significance of this wasn’t much noticed in America, globally the effect was profound. Moviegoers around the world suddenly found themselves exposed, often for the first time, to American voices, American vocabulary, American cadence and pronunciation and word order. Spanish conquistadors, Elizabethan courtiers, figures from the Bible were suddenly speaking in American voices – and not just occasionally but in film after film after film. The psychological effect of this, particularly on the young, can hardly be overstated. With American speech came American thoughts, American attitudes, American humor and sensibilities. Peacefully, by accident, and almost unnoticed, America had just taken over the world.

Henry Ford’s disaster in Brazil!

His book!

Mt. Rushmore!

Herbert Hoover and “Silent Cal” Coolidge!

Eugenics!

Sixty thousand involuntary sterilizations!

One of them performed on a white 6-month-old girl.

Another okayed by the Supreme Court in an 8-1 ruling written by Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.!

David Sarnoff commercializes radio!

Philo T. Farnsworth patents television!

Sarnoff steals it anyway!  (The ParkerVision story?)

It’s hard to think of another book that’s as simultaneously entertaining and informative.

You’re welcome.

APE closed at $1.52 yesterday and its very slightly less valuable twin, AMC, at $5.43.  It’s not certain when the two prices will converge, or where AMC will be trading when they do, but converge they almost surely will.

 

We’re BACK, Baby!

Our Republican friends say Democrats are “destroying America.”  (See, for example, their leader’s Easter message.)

Yet the Wall Street Journal reports:

America Is Back in the Factory Business
Record spending on manufacturing construction heralds a made-in-the-U.S. rebound, stoked by green-energy incentives and concerns about foreign supply chains; ‘this is here to stay’

Production at U.S. factories rose last year, but few things were produced at a more furious pace than factories themselves.

Construction spending related to manufacturing reached $108 billion in 2022 . . . the highest annual total on record.

New factories are rising in urban cores and rural fields, desert flats and surf towns. Much of the growth is coming in the high-tech fields of electric-vehicle batteries and semiconductors, national priorities backed by billions of dollars in government incentives. Other companies that once relied exclusively on lower-cost countries to manufacture eyeglasses and bicycles and bodybuilding supplements have found reasons to come home. . . .

. . . David Mindell, professor of the history of engineering and manufacturing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-founded a venture-capital firm investing in industrial transformation, said major cycles typically play out over several decades. The factory boom signals that the U.S. is at the start of a new cycle, he said.

And looking at our progress more broadly, I offer this column from last August, here updated:

In Just Two Years . . .

. . . the President has:

  • Defeated the biggest threat to democracy we’ve ever faced — by 7 million votes.
  • Restored our alliances and greatly strengthened NATO.
  • United all of Europe in support of Ukrainian sovereignty, setting Russia back decades.
  • Eliminated the leader of Al Qaida.
  • Restored competence and professionalism to the State Department . . . and to the rest of the executive branch.
  • Restored integrity, decency, dignity, modesty, and compassion to the Presidency.
  • Ended the deadly Covid plague for anyone choosing to be vaccinated.
  • Rescued the economy and cut unemployment to its lowest rate in half a century.
  • Made clear that, like almost all Democrats, he wants to FUND the police, not defund them as the other party voted to do.
  • Appointed a wonderful Supreme Court Justice and more than 100 federal district court and appellate judges.
  • Signed into law a massive infrastructure bill to help revitalize the country, after decades of prior presidents’ failing to do so.
  • Signed into law the strategically and economically spectacular Chips-Plus package.
  • Signed into law a gun safety bill that, while wholly inadequate, at least did something for the first time since 1994.
  • Signed into law the PACT Act, extending benefits for veterans.
  • Signed into law a bill that will reduce the cost of prescription drugs, meaningfully restore our global role in confronting the existential climate crisis, and levy tax on the uber-wealthy and most profitable corporations while not seeking a dime from anyone else.
  • And more.

The country is moving forward.

Many of you helped make it possible.

Thank you.

Have you done all you can to fund the organizing effort that is our best chance to save democracy and keep America moving forward?