Author: A.T.

Cognitive Dissonance

Mark Aaron James:

This is what sucks about cognitive dissonance. Once you’ve committed, and defended a position, it is VERY difficult to rectify such a mistake with one’s sense of self. Humans are incredibly reluctant to see themselves as less informed, making bad decisions, unknowingly supporting evil, and being fooled. They will, honestly, die defending a choice, rather than admit they were flawed. It is one of our greatest weaknesses as a species. There is a gentle process, where you can lead people to figure it out themselves, but just telling them, even showing them evidence, often causes them to double down. I wish this weren’t true, but there are tons of studies about it. Ignorant people are fragile, and that sucks for anyone hoping to make change.

→ That’s the problem all right.

Yet . . .

. . . when the 79 million Americans on Medicaid see how hard Trump is trying to cut their benefits . . . while cutting taxes for millionaires and billionaires . . . and ballooning the deficit . . .

. . . when farmers lose the sales they used to make to USAID to feed starving children (and win the world’s admiration and goodwill) . . .

. . . when shoppers see the price of eggs double what got them to vote for Trump . . .

. . . and hard-working public servants who voted for him are treated with contempt and laid off . . .

. . . and government services get worse and air safety becomes a concern and measles spreads and 401k’s fall . . .

. . . and they wonder how it makes America great to pardon cop beaters . . .

. . . and to vote with Russia and North Korea against Ukraine and our allies . . .

. . . I think more than a few of the good people who trusted Trump with their vote will feel betrayed.

Whether this will happen in time to save the country — and whether free and fair elections will be allowed in 2026 — I don’t know.  They have elections in Russia and North Korea, too.

Join Indivisible!

Take 20 minutes a day to spread DIS-disinformation!

BONUS

Will it be okay for Trump to murder people as Russia’s Putin and North Korea’s Kim do?

Adam Schiff puts the question to a Trump nominee.

 

Two Alarms: Your Investments and Your Country

YOUR COUNTRY

Jonathan Rauch writes:

Seeking to make the world safe for gangsterism, Putin used propaganda, subversion, and other forms of influence to spread the model abroad. Over time, the patrimonial model gained ground in states as diverse as Hungary, Poland, Turkey, and India. Gradually (as my colleague Anne Applebaum has documented), those states coordinated in something like a syndicate of crime families—“working out problems,” write Hanson and Kopstein in their book, “divvying up the spoils, sometimes quarreling, but helping each other when needed. Putin in this scheme occupied the position of the capo di tutti capi, the boss of bosses.”

Until now. Move over, President Putin.

So worth reading in full!

Joe O’Neill in the New York Review:

We’re in new territory—systemic democratic collapse. Things are coming at us fast. It’s hard to know which way to turn.

. . .

Democrats have disgraced themselves. They’ve looked terrified and defeated and confused. They’ve hidden behind consultant-devised talking points about grocery prices. They’ve cast votes to confirm Trump’s extremist cabinet nominees.

Jim G.’s prescription:

Democrats must stop conducting business as usual!

> Declare an emergency—an ongoing lawless authoritarian takeover!

> Designate a leader of the opposition — someone vigorous, passionate, and credible!  [My choice.]

> Hold a daily press briefing on the Capitol steps calling out every lie and illegal action of the previous day!

> Refuse to cast any vote, confirm any nominee, agree to any unanimous consent resolution, until Republicans commit to return to the rule of law!

There is a time for exclamation marks, and this is one of them.

Join Indivisible!  Spread DIS-disinformation!

YOUR INVESTMENTS

I think there’s a good chance of a major stock market decline in the not-too-distant future (did it start last week?).  I could be wrong, of course.  But you wouldn’t be alone if you liquidated some of your holdings (especially in retirement accounts where no tax is incurred).  The world’s wisest investor, Warren Buffett, would be right there beside you, with well north of $300 billion on the sidelines, ready to scoop up bargains, should the bottom fall out.

I’ve sold very little, because most of my holdings are “special situations” not all that closely correlated to the market as a whole.

Take CHRB — suggested here two years ago at $13.50 (currently $18.89), a preferred stock paying an 8.5% dividend on its $25 face value — $2.125 per year, 53 cents each quarter (so 11% or so currently).  That’s a pretty good current yield, and it is enhanced by the promise of redemption 6 quarters from now at its full $25 value.  Should all go as planned, that would be a further 32% gain from here regardless of what the stock market does.

Or take PRKR.  If its lawsuits go well, the stock will do well.  If they tank, it will tank.  How this rank speculation fares is largely independent of the broader market.

Or take OPRT.  My fantasy is to imagine that I am a fund manager who owns 100,000 shares of TSLA, purchased a few years ago at $70.  It’s plunged from its high but still over $300 a share (at least as of last night) sporting a price earnings ratio well over 100 . . . and I’ve read Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter and I’m getting nervous . . . so I sell it — and have $30 million to invest.  Where do I put it?  Maybe I see that OPRT is projecting earnings of $1.10-$1.30 a share and that, closing yesterday at $7.20, it’s selling for 6 times projected earnings.  So maybe I think about buying 1 million shares.  In a real panic, everything, certainly including OPRT, would fall.  But (I like to think) OPRT would be the kind of stuck that bobbed back up pretty fast.

Remember!  Only with money you can truly afford to lose!

Snatching Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory

U.S. VOTES AGAINST U.N. RESOLUTION CONDEMNING RUSSIA FOR UKRAINE WAR.

Really.  We did that.

The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse but Trump is riding to Putin’s rescue — and fast destroying the largely successful 80-year post-War order.

At home, everything he touches dies.

Not least the FBI.

An Obituary For the FBI:

The 117-year-old Federal Bureau of Investigation, long heralded as the nation’s premier national law enforcement agency — an avowedly nonpartisan, independent investigator that for decades has pursued gangsters, mafioso, Nazis, terrorists, spies, cybercriminals, and corrupt politicians without fear, favor or political malice — died over the weekend.

. . . The Sunday night announcement that Dan Bongino — a bombastic MAGA podcast host, fiery right-wing troll, one-time Secret Service agent, and three-time failed Republican congressional candidate — would be the new FBI deputy director and join the newly confirmed director Kash Patel, another MAGA loyalist better known for his hucksterism of Trump merchandise than his management, leadership, or law enforcement experience, and lead the FBI marked an almost certainly permanent alteration of the fabric of the institution.

In the entire modern history of the bureau, the deputy director — the #2 person who serves as the day-to-day operational leader of the FBI — has always been a civil servant and career special agent, one who has worked his (they’ve always been men) way up the ranks over a two-decade career and is deeply familiar with the workings of the bureau, its wide-ranging missions, and curious culture.

All previous modern directors, meanwhile, have had deep experience with the FBI — working in senior roles in law enforcement, atop the Justice Department, or as federal judges. Patel and Bongino . . . bring none of that acquired expertise or wisdom to the role; neither has worked for the FBI for a single day and neither has meaningful senior management experience.

Both have been installed, effectively, to troll the libs . . . Don’t take my word for it — Bongino said it himself in 2018: “My entire life right now is about owning the libs.” He added then: “We win, you lose, the new rules are in effect.”

That’s just an excerpt.  It gets worse.

So worth reading in full.

If you wanted to become a dictator like the men you admire — Putin / Orban / Kim Jong Un / Xi — isn’t this exactly what you would do?

We once held these truths to be self-evident:  That democracy was better than authoritarianism; that murderous kleptocrats were the bad guys; that those who died for their country were heroes, not suckers; that beating cops defending democracy would be unforgiveable; that the Supreme Court, Justice Department and FBI should be above politics.

Now, not all of us do.

Putin is winning.

Trump, one of his former Chiefs of Staff asserts, is “fascist to the core.”  And, yes, though not a voracious reader, he for years kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside.

If you missed Sunday’s column, here are some things we can do.

 

Condoms To Gaza

Yes, explained Fareed Zakaria at the end of Sunday’s show, USAID did send condoms to Gaza — but not that Gaza, the one in Mozambique! And he explains why. And presents the bigger picture so, so well.

Maybe it could be one of your DIS-disinformation posts:

It’s true!  Even liberal CNN admits USAID sent condoms to Gaza!!!  You gotta watch!!!!

And don’t miss Fareed’s take on Ukraine and why we’re surrendering to Russia.

Your feedback:

Jonathan R.: “DIS-disinformation.  It’s an interesting idea.  I posted something innocuous on LinkedIn about “don’t we need the IRS guys to catch the billionaire tax cheats so that we can lower the deficit?” and got hundreds of misinformed messages, such as “the problem is not tax cheats, it’s that half of the jobs in America are for the Federal Government. I am tired of paying them.”  (The correct number is 1.87% of the jobs, and that includes park rangers, FAA guys etc.)

Jane B.: “I totally love this idea but may I make a suggestion?  Spell a few words wrong.  Don’t be overly grammatical.  Add a bunch of !!!s.  Will be more realistic.”

Friedrike M.: “Avoid big words like ‘bewilderment’.  Dead giveaway.”

Jane S.: “Omg you’re reading my mind! I have been mulling this over for days. My daughter briefly dated a very handsome athlete who was QAnon. It was short-lived (thank God) but then she couldn’t shake him. Being fearful that she would run into him again she created a fictitious handle and signed up for a QAnon site so she could keep her eye on him.”

Tom M.: “I think this is very clever and wonderfully subversive.  Since I don’t use any of the platforms like X, I wouldn’t have an idea of how to start.”

→ There are endless opportunities.  For example, I just went to Breitbart and clicked on a story . . . then scrolled down to the 525 comments it’s generated so far:  Comments: Democrats Panic over President Trump’s Talk of Reforming U.S. Postal Service.  Have at it!

Bob P.: “Do you know any popular Catholic/Christian platforms to post on?”

→ Try these?

Peter S.: “Good idea. BTW, Musk has 13 kids as of a day or two ago.”

Danny G.: “I think we either have to stop listening to the news (life is quite nice that way) or do as several friends I know….they got citizenship in Portugal. Or hope that Trump f***s things up so badly that the people who thought he was their guy will turn on him.  I have a saying on my refrigerator:  ‘Some people are like Slinkies—generally useless but bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs!’  What are your thoughts?”

→ Love the Slinky line.  Disagree we should tune out and give up.  We owe it to all the folks who sacrificed so much for democracy, and to future generations (and to ourselves!), to resist.

Have a great week.

 

Planting Seeds of DIS-disinformation

Trump is destroying everything.

Musk, Putin and the Proud Boys are in pig heaven.

All that, getting worse by the day, you already know.

You also already know . . .

. . . there are tons of great places to give money . . .

. . . you can inspire your friends and relatives to join their local Indivisible chapters . . .

. . . you can sell your Tesla . . .

. . . you can join the one-day nationwide February 28 boycott: buy nothing.

But here’s something else I’ve been thinking about:

What if thousands or millions of us — starting with you and me — spent even just a few minutes each day going onto right-leaning message boards and chats?

NOT to troll or shame or hector, not to insult or to scold, but to — somewhat subtly — spread DIS-disinformation?

DIS-disinformation (once you unpack the double negative) has the virtue of being . . . or of at least striving to be . . . accurate information.

It is exactly the kind that has a hard time getting through to the audiences of FOX News, Truth Social, Newsmax, Breitbart, OANN, or your uncle’s Instagram.

By “somewhat subtly” I don’t mean (wink wink) dishonestly, like a psy-ops agent in St. Petersburg adopting the persona of a U. of Michigan cheerleader.  I mean phrasing your comments and questions in ways that someone might assume you shared their views.

The only reason even to approach the line of deception — but not cross it — is that if they knew you vote blue, they would also know you’re an idiot who hates America.  Their minds would instantly snap shut.

So!

Having chosen a non-descript screen name — MustangSally96 — and perhaps different names on different platforms — find a post to comment on or a comment to reply to.  Often with a question, looking for advice.

What follow are a whole bunch of examples for your consideration and, perhaps, to get you started:

Gallup just reported our President’s approval rating the lowest of any since they started polling.  What’s going on???

If you get a response, whatever it is, you might follow up with:

I found this: Presidential Approval Ratings — Donald Trump.  I think I blame Musk.

On a different site you might be OffensiveLineBackerBobby:

One of my liberal friends (yes, I have some) just claimed Trump was recruited by Moscow in 1987 under the code name Krasnov.  It’s ridiculous . . . but my friend says T’s changed his positions on everything (which I like: you’ve got to be nimble and flexible to make good deals) — one day he’s mocking “little Marco,” next he’s naming him Secretary of State — one day he’s pro-choice, the next day he’s pro-life with penalties for the mother — one day he’s threatening to blow the North Korean guy to smithereens, the next day they’re in love — and yet the one thing he’s never changed his mind on is Putin.  Is it just me, or were any of you bewildered when he did that press conference in Helsinki where he told the world he trusted Putin more than he trusted the FBI.  As a patriotic American, I gotta say I was . . . disconcerted.

If you get a response, whatever it is, you might follow up with:

I Googled around some and found this in a Business journal: Former Soviet Security Official, Makes Explosive Claims that Trump Was Recruited as Russian Spy.  I don’t think it could be true. If it were, it would have been in that Mueller Report they tried to impeach him with.  Did anybody read that?

My idea isn’t that the discussions you may have will “convert” anyone.  Just that they may plant seeds of doubt.

Seeds have a way of growing.

He really is so funny.  Did you see the clip where he said Ukraine started the war?  That Ukraine invaded Russia?  You gotta hand it to our guy — he has balls!  By now, I don’t believe much of what he says, but I love listening to him say it.  And I’ve always been kind of grossed out by eggs, so I don’t actually care what they cost.

You may want to express early signs of disappointment that others might relate to.  Ultimately, some Trump voters may come to realize they’ve been conned.  Betrayed, even:

Hey, my hopes for the President’s success were high.  Still are.  But I gotta say he seems to be spending a lot more time firing people by mistake and then hiring them back than lowering my rent or my grocery bill.  How do we get him back to being the guy America voted for?  How is he going to lower the $36 trillion debt if he cuts taxes on billionaires?  And why the hell is he letting drug companies and credit card companies off the hook?

I’d resist the urge to make each comment an essay, with links to sources.  Rather, I’d start small, and then, when challenged, link to something — ideally to FOX or the New York Post or Wall Street Journal — showing that it’s true.  Pieces like this one in the New York Post — Putin is THE dictator and 10 Ukraine-Russia war truths we ignore at our peril — might actually get read.  The same piece in the New York Times?  Probably not.

Then, perhaps, if you can get a friendly discussion going about Trump and Putin . . .

Did you see our North Carolina senator?  He’s voted with the President on most everything, but listen to what he says about Putin — I mean, OUCH!  Is he wrong?  Eager for your thoughts.

Or how about:

Hey, guys.  My homeowner’s insurance has gone through roof with all the storms and fires and they say it’s only going to get worse.  Meanwhile, Trump Tells Federal Scientists to End Climate Report Work.  Are we sure this is a good way to save money?  I have grandkids!  I don’t want them living in a hellscape.  Closing our eyes to what’s happening — or even just MAY be happening — doesn’t seem responsible.  Am I crazy?  Seriously: let me know what you think.

Or:

What should I tell my daughter who thinks Musk is “transphobic” for hating his 20-year-old daughter Vivian — who, until she was 16, was his 16-year-old son.  He says he was tricked into giving permission.  But his daughter is really glad he did.  Hating your own child — I’m not comfortable with that.

Then, if there’s a response, find a way to link to the New York Post:

Here’s the New York Post story about her.  I don’t know any trans people myself, but I know parents should love their kids no matter what.  I did some googling — Musk has TWELVE kids?  And he runs SIX businesses?  AND he runs the United States Government?  Maybe he doesn’t have time to do all this as carefully as he should?  Yikes!

Almost everyone agrees he shouldn’t have pardoned the January 6 cop-beaters.  So:

I’m sorry, but I’m a law and order guy.  Pardoning 200 guys who beat cops halfway to death on Jan. 6.  Not my idea of law and order.

And on and on.

I don’t mean to drown you.  But if you’re distressed by where we find ourselves, give this a try?

If you find that planting seeds of doubt — all of them 100% justified! — is actually kind of fun, then perhaps inspire 3 friends to do the same, and to inspire 3 of their friends to inspire 3 of their friends . . .

Let me know your thoughts.

 

Must Watch: Siding With Putin

Timothy Snyder, here with Lawrence O’Donnell.

Trump is siding with Putin against Ukraine, just as he famously sided with Putin over the FBI.

And just as — or at least reminiscent of the way that — Charles Lindbergh and the America First Party sided with Hitler in 1938 when he invaded Austria.

And again in 1939 when he invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland.

And in 1940 when he invaded Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg, and France.

And in 1941 (Yugoslavia, Greece, Albania, the Soviet Union) — until Pearl Harbor, when they dropped their opposition to opposing Hitler.

And it got worse yesterday, as I’m sure you know, when Trump explicitly doubled and tripled down.

Have you joined Indivisible?

Signed up for today’s 3pm EDT call?

Tomorrow I hope to make another suggestion.

In the meantime, I hope you can find a few minutes to watch Timothy Snyder with Lawrence O’Donnell.

UNIT

David T.: “I bought UNIT a few years ago after you plugged it.  They had broken off from Windstream as I recall… now they’re proposing a merger with them.  I got the proxy vote email tonight.  Is the merger something that shareholders should support?”

→ My Uniti guru thinks “it’s a winner.”  “After the merger,” he says, “it’s a 12-dollar stock.  I believe it’s being packaged to sell to Verizon or AT&T.”

He doesn’t mean literally right after the merger; just somewhere down the road, in like the next year or two.

Having quite a few shares, I’m hoping he’s right — but only with money I can truly afford to lose.

 

Buy? Sell? Hold?

But first . . .

Here’s 7 minutes on Trump/Musk’s firing of nuclear safety personnel.  Was it done legally?  Efficiently?  Will it help lower the price of groceries?  Who needs nuclear safety, anyway?  I’d love to know Carl’s opinion — and, as he writes me almost every day, he may well share it.  If he does, I will share his views.

So much more to say, including — tomorrow or soon — an idea for turning anxiety into action, but The Brutalist just started streaming and, while not for everyone, I was more or less riveted for 200 minutes last night.

Also . . .

Thanks for the feedback on yesterday’s “idea worth considering.”  Most of it was thumbs up, but Nathaniel M. wrote:

I think this is a terrible idea.  One of the things that the extended primary system allows us to do is build infrastructure in the states for the general election, usually a year out or so from the general election. This would essentially hoover up donor dollars needed to retake the House, and either 1) force the eventual nominee to raise and spend at a time when donors and voters just want a break from politics (at a minimum the six months immediately following the election) or 2) lay off the staff they hired to win the primary and go dark for an extended period, which means they’d lose all momentum from the primary campaign season.

Now, I did help bring Ranked Choice Voting to Alaska (and a Top-Four primary system), so I think there’s a lot of value in finding a way to get it adopted everywhere.  I just don’t think this proposal is the way to do it.

→ Objections worth considering (and he concluded with some kind words, which I appreciated), but I think that, even if for this one time only, the pros could far outweigh the cons.  There will be SO much Democratic time and energy focused on going to the polls in the mid-terms, whether for specific House and Senate candidates or for this added reason of expressing your preference for our next presidential nominee, I think it could definitely help us win back Congress and state legislatures . . . and that the energy will continue all the way through 2028.

All further thoughts welcome.

And now . . .

OPRT closed at $9.05 in after-hours trading, so most of us now have a double, triple, or quadruple by now.  Profit-taking in a tax-deferred retirement account wouldn’t be crazy (or if you’re somehow in a very low tax bracket).  But if the company does hit its projected $1.10 to $1.30 earnings per share this year, with prospects for further gains, one could see it gradually trading up to 12 or 15 times earnings — so maybe another double from here in a year or two.  I have no expertise to predict any of that; but I know for sure that selling here in a taxable account means giving up a good chunk of the gain, so I wouldn’t rush to do it if you bought your shares with money you could truly afford to lose.  Or maybe sell some, so you’re playing with house money.  Or sell but take a loss somewhere else to net out the gain.

PRMRF dropped from $22 to $12.75 in the last couple of days.  Even though we paid as little as $1 years ago, my heart still sank — until I saw that they’d paid out a one-time $10.42 special dividend ($15 Canadian), much of it a potentially tax-free return of capital.  It’s certainly not the screaming buy it once was; but the same tax thinking above may apply here.

CMRX, first suggested May 18, 2022, when it was trading under $2, closed at $4.83 last night — in part, I assume, on this announcement.  I sold half.

 

Now HERE’s An Idea Worth Considering:

The DNC should re-write its rules for the 2028 presidential primary to hold it all at once on November 5, 2026 — the day of the 2026 mid-terms — with ranked-choice voting.

(Full disclosure: this was not my idea.  It came from a fellow donor this past weekend at a fundraiser for Senator Ruben Gallego and Congressmen Eric Swalwell and Derek Tran.  He gave me permission to steal it and eschewed credit.)

The two main advantages?

  1. Mid-term turn-out among Democrats would be huge, improving our chance of winning back Congress and state legislatures.
  2. Whoever emerged as our nominee would have two years to “lead the opposition” and get his or her message across.    

By using ranked-choice voting, most people would see one of their top choices win; everyone would feel they had had a role in the process.

A subsidiary advantage?  The whole country would learn how simple and sensible ranked-choice (also known as “instant-runoff”) voting is . . . which really matters, because the more widely adopted it is, the more moderate candidates will be able to win primaries, and the less polarized our politics, and our nation, could become.

(As I’ve written before, ranked choice voting is the very simple idea that if you’re ordering a lychee frozen margarita and the waiter says he’s not sure they have lychee today, you say, “well, if they don’t have lychee, I’ll take pineapple.”  Just substitute Ralph Nader for lychee and Al Gore for pineapple.)

A couple of finer points:

> Sure, the RNC could copy this; but do we really think Trump would allow it?  He has his eye on a third term, one way or another; and, even if not, would he want to see his successor in the spotlight so early on?  My guess is no.

> The rules should probably allow some mechanism, triggered under certain specified circumstances, for an escape hatch.  Perhaps a re-run-off among the top tier if, a few months in advance of the 2028 Convention, national polls showed that the winner had not held up well.  A health issue, perhaps, or a scandal.

Either way, shortly after November 5, 2026, our newly-chosen nominee would take over leadership of The Perfect Shadow Cabinet (as described here a few days ago) and perhaps swap out some of its members.

What do you think?

Would this improve our odds in the mid-terms?  And in 2028?

PRESIDENT’S DAY BONUS

Abe’s birthday was last Wednesday; George’s, this coming Saturday.

Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden were also pretty great presidents in my view, despite some well-known flaws.  Nixon, too, in some ways . . . even aspects of Reagan and the Bushes, if one hunts to find them.

But the true gold standard in the modern era had his 102nd birthday last August 18th: President Jed Bartlet.  Here he is with our Ambassador to Bulgaria.  

(Thanks, Andy R.)

 

Actions We Can Take — Today

But first:

Not counting the military, there are 2.6 million federal employees.  On average, including benefits, they earn on the order of $140,000 a year.  That works out to a little more than $350 billion a year.  If Elon Musk fired half a million of them, that would save just 1% of the budget — not counting the cost of paying them unemployment benefits and the loss of tax revenue levied on their earnings (and the cost of losing the value of their work, just in case they had not been totally useless, as he seems convinced they are).

Maybe an even better way to reduce our deficit would be to collect more tax revenue from our wealthiest citizens and corporations by letting the Trump tax cuts expire on any income above, say, $1 million — and by adequately funding the IRS to collect those taxes.

Both ideas are anathema to the billionaires who now control our government (though not to billionaires like Nick Hanauer, Mark Cuban, Oprah Winfrey, J.B. Pritzker, and Warren Buffett).

I found this PBS interview of Philip K. Howard and Will Marshall on the right way to make government more efficient thoughtful in the extreme.

And now:

Indivisible just launched its Musk or Us Toolkit. Check it out!

To see what their Zooms are like, here was Thursday’s.

Register for their next one?  3pm Eastern Thursday.

Also:

Ready to start organizing your community? Fill out this form and let them know.