Author: A.T.

Yesterday: Rep. Joyce Beatty, who sits on the Kennedy Center board, recounting her exchange with the man who wrecked it.  The first minute or two give the gist.

Today: This 104-year-old woman.  Damn she’s good.  Four minutes.  [UPDATE:  Good though she is, she’s fake.]

“Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I’ll show you a crook.” — Harry Truman

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The three men are:

> Paul Raushenbush an openly gay Baptist minister for the past early three decades, married with two kids — whose great-grandfathers, just so you know, were Mr. Justice Louis Brandeis, of the United States Supreme Court, on one side, and prominent Baptist theologian Walter Rauschenbusch on the other.  (The ‘Cs’ got dropped from Rauschenbusch somewhere along the line.)

> Senator Dr. Roger Marshall of Kansas, running for reelection, who recently gained national prominence for ‘unbelievably aggressive’ lawsuits against 700 of his patients over unpaid bills on which he charged 18% interest, 81 of whom he had arrested.  (And who as a senator voted to cut the medical insurance subsidies that make it possible for struggling patents to pay doctor bills.)

> Reverend Adam Hamilton, who married his high school sweetheart LaVon the week after graduation 44 years ago; founded with just four congregants 36 years ago what has grown to be the largest United Methodist church in the country, with 25,000 Kansans); and who is running to unseat Marshall.

So now you know the cast of characters.

Here’s what Paul Raushenbush posted on Facebook after attending a Hamilton fundraiser in New York Tuesday night.  (They had not met before.)  David Letterman is the one with the beard.

Nice, no?

And here’s what Senator Marshall released the next day.

Apparently, his team constantly surfs the web for any reference to his opponent.

For the record:

The fundraiser was not in Washington; Raushenbush was not the host; he is not “crazy”; he is not “a maniac.”

He is, rather, the widely-respected president of the Interfaith Alliance — though it’s true that he supports what he calls “the God-given dignity of all people, including Americans who are trans and members of the drag community.” 

“I find inspiration and joy from my friendships with people who are different from me,” he says.  “Advocating for their equality and dignity is a reflection of my own deeply-held faith.” 

Is that crazy?  Or is it profoundly American: advocating for the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness however you find it, so long as you’re not hurting anyone else.

Marshall rarely exposes himself to everyday Kansans.  When he did recently — in a “ruby red” county — his constituents booed and shouted “shame”.

Hamilton, by contrast, is hugely accessible, decent, and comfortable to talk to.

He’s going to win.

The kick-ass woman, meanwhile — if you’ve not yet seen this clip — is Representative Joyce Beatty of Ohio, who sits on the Kennedy Center board. 

The first minute or two will delight you.  

John Hook has been bullish long after I thought that was warranted (and has been right), so I took special notice when he sent this out to his clients over the weekend:

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Thursday 9/10 we went net short because of inflation, interest rate, political, geopolitical, and AI risks.

Negatives

• Inflation is above historical inflection levels. Historically, inflation has been the main inflector;
• World oil demand exceeds supply by about 1.5 to 5.5 mbpd, probably about 3-4. Inventories are low and decreasing. Oil prices, already too high, probably go higher because of Middle East and Black Sea restrictions.  Higher oil prices probably push up inflation and interest rates;
• Interest rates are near levels which have sometimes inflected the economy and stocks. Large federal, private ( especially datacenter), and world borrowing probably push interest rates higher;
• P/Es are high. Forward P/Es are within norms but based on a second year of very aggressive accounting and growth assumptions;
• Debt/GDP levels are high;
• AI token and GPU rental prices are decreasing faster than revenues are increasing;
• Stocks favor Republican pro-growth policies and will likely sell off as Democrats are perceived likely to win the mid-term or when they win the mid-terms;
• Geopolitics are unstable; and
• September to mid or late October has been the worst stock time of year, especially during mid-term elections

Positives

• Real GDP is strong. But it is partially based on heavy federal and datacenter borrowing;
• Earnings will be very strong y/y, but down q/q.  EPS will likely beat estimates.  Guidance may be mixed, very positive yet with many cautions; and
• Stocks have done well under divided government or Republican 3^rd years.

Mixed or Uncertain

• EPS accounting includes legal but Ponzi-like circular revenues and gains from companies partially capitalized by the hyperscalers from whom they buy services. Much expense is “construction in progress” and not yet depreciated but soon will be ahead.
• Republicans could win the mid-terms.
• With AI leaders (Amodei, Altman, Musk) and Democrats calling for an AI and data center slow-down, growth may slow or crash.

We evaluate the above as correction or bearish.

Hook & Co.

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The smartest technologists in the world are talking about an imminent existential threat.

Trump says the negativity is overdone — it’s going to be okay.

Sound familiar?

Peggy Noonan nails it: Pause AI for Humanity’s Sake

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When something speeds up and gets out of control, it isn’t alarmist to demand prudence and deliberation.

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The U.S. and China must rise to the occasion — and fast.

And there is a glimmer of hope.

From Foreign Affairs: The Emerging U.S.-China Détente

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A Confident Beijing and a Pragmatic Washington Can Get Along

It now appears plausible that bilateral relations have turned a corner and entered a more stable phase. . . .

The peak tensions of the past eight years may well be receding.

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Corralling artificial intelligence somehow must be priority number one.

THIS IS THE PLAN

Assuming we do find a way to harness A.I. — and rein in The Nerd Reich — we have a huge challenge to get the country back on track.  I cannot recommend highly — or often — enough that you listen to or read Ben Wikler’s This Is the Plan . . . and then give it to every concerned person you know.  Young or old.

Seriously!*  

Because if it’s a good idea to hand everybody a check for $5,000, isn’t it twice as good an idea to hand everybody $10,000?

That’s what all our candidates should promise to do if we win the House and Senate!

If Trump thinks $10,000 is too much, he can simply promise to veto or pare it back when we pass it.  Stingy Don.

When the press asks where we plan to get all that money to give away, we can say:

“The same place Trump got the money to give everybody the $2,000 checks he promised the last time.”

And when the press pushes back, noting that he never did give anyone those promised $2,000 checks, we can say, “Well . . . duh!”

Or we can say, “Don’t worry, we have the concept of a plan.”

Or we can say, “We’re going to get every penny of it by raising tax rates on corporations and billionaires and by closing tax loopholes that only benefit the rich.”  (Which would be the only defensible way to get it.)

Or we can say, “Look.  Obviously, we’re no more serious about this than Trump is.  He just dangles it out there as a bribe, as he dangled giving everyone “terrific health care at a tiny fraction of the cost.”  Or dangled “lower prices on Day One.”  Or promised to cherish his first wife “until death did them part.”  And his second.  And his third.

Once he gets what he wants, what does he care?  He breaks his promises on virtually everything, every time.  (He did close the border; but is he really deporting just the worst of the worst?)

On the remote chance he’s serious about the $5,000, where would he get it?

Clearly not from taxing billionaires or corporations. 

He’d just add it to the National Debt.  Because if Republicans have proved anything since Reagan began ballooning it, it’s that they are the “borrow and spend” party.  Forty trillion?  Fifty trillion?  Who cares, so long as they can cut taxes on the wealthy donors who keep them in power.  

His other reason for dangling this phony bribe is to deflect attention. 

From the Epstein files.  From groceries and gas.  From the millions about to lose health insurance.  From the rural hospitals soon to close.  From his staggering corruption.  From his disastrous war.  

NO KINGS! 

Saturday, October 17!

Ezra Levin lays out the case for your participation (2½ minutes).

Here’s the website:  No Kings Vote Early.

KANSAS

Kansas’s two-term Democratic governor has endorsed Hamilton — obviously — but get this:  Former two-term Republican Governor Bill Graves just endorsed him, too.

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For the last six years, Sen. Roger Marshall has turned his back on Kansas. In contrast, Adam Hamilton stands as a bulwark of kindness, humility and service to others. It is for those reasons, and many more, that I believe Kansas should send Adam Hamilton to the U.S. Senate, and I am proud to endorse him. . . .

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We’re gonna win!

*Well, not seriously.  But maybe?

PALANTIR

Sorry, but — yikes.  A quick primer on Palantir.

> Alex Karp, one of the most dangerous men alive (2½ minutes).

> Palantir’s 22-point Manifesto (definitely worth the read).

> Europe pushes back (no need to watch the full 6 minutes; you’ll get the point).

ISRAEL

To say the subject is fraught these days hardly begins to describe the eggshells upon which we walk — and should, because there are incredibly deep feelings and wounds on both sides that should be respected.

You already know I think “genocide” is the wrong word (It’s terrible, but it’s not genocide); but making that case requires great sensitivity (as I believe the author displayed).

With that said, two recent pieces for your consideration:

> The Warning Benjamin Netanyahu Ignored.

> At an insufferable anti-Israel dinner party, a masterclass in dealing with pro-Palestinian idiocy.

All of this, food for thought.

KANSAS

A Doctor Sued 700 Patients for Debts; 81 Were Arrested. Now He’s a Senator.

But not for long!

The Reverend Adam Hamilton is poised to unseat him November 3.*

Yes, you can buy a Trump Bible for $60.  And we all know “two Corinthians” is his go-to scripture.

And yes, the Republican Party stands firmly with Jesus against aid to the poor and hungry, against universal health care, against asylum seekers, and against raising the $7.25 minimum wage.

Except — hang on — call me crazy — but as I read the red letter verses, it is the values of the Democratic Party — as espoused, say, by Senator Raphael Warnock (occupant of Martin Luther King’s old pulpit), and by soon-to-be senators Talarico (“there’s nothing Christian about white Christian nationalism”) and Hamilton (pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist church) — that more closely align with Christ’s teachings.

TEXAS

Meagan Morris Speaks From Jail After Being Sentenced to 50 Years by the Trump Administration

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I just kind of sat in the back seat, and I kicked my feet up, and I was playing a Pokémon ROM hack on my Switch. Waiting for my friends to come back so I could go home and continue, you know, celebrating the 4th of July. We had plans to have a couple of drinks and hang out. I have a pool at my house, so we were going to have a late-night pool party.

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Watch — or read the transcript.  She was convicted of being anti-fascist (“antifa”).

Someone did injure a cop that night — and that’s bad, no question — but it wasn’t she; she was in her car playing a video game.

So 50 years seems harsh.

Though not to a fascist.  Fascists aren’t big on nuance.  And — like most of America until recently — she was anti-fascist.

Same deal with her wife, Autumn Hill — 50 years. 

Watch — or read that transcript.

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So the night of July 4, some friends and I protested at the Prairieland detention center in Alvarado, Texas, and we did what’s called a noise demonstration, which is a pretty typical form of protest. You know, you show up outside of a building where something is going on that you and your friends might disagree with, and you make a lot of noise to signal your presence and dissent. So, you know, fireworks and megaphones and bells and whistles and all that are extremely common. But my goal was to let the people inside, the detainees, know, “Hey, we’re here, we know that you are there, you haven’t been forgotten, and we understand that what is happening to you is unjust.” That all went well. And I actually left before any of the violence occurred. A correctional officer came outside and asked us to disperse and we did. And so I ended up going home in a separate vehicle, and I didn’t know anything about the violence that had occurred until later that evening. We had been waiting for my housemate and co-defendant Meagan Morris to return home from the protest. And when she didn’t for several hours, we started to look at the reporting from Alvarado and the first that I learned that any violence had occurred was from a report that there had been an officer-involved shooting outside of the Prairieland Detention Center.

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Fifty years in prison.  Welcome to Trump’s America.  (And what a good use of taxpayer money.)

UNIT

Suggested here at $4.70 and again at $3.50, I sold half mine yesterday at $10.30.  I have no idea where it’s going, but from now on I’m playing with house money.

* Me-mail if you’d like to meet him and David Letterman Tuesday. 

His Labor Day post:

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Many leaders are waking up to the fact that our economic system – capitalism – is becoming unduly harsh and punitive for millions of Americans.

And these critiques are coming from hard-nosed business leaders:

Ray Dalio: “Capitalism is not working for the majority of people.”

Marc Benioff: “Capitalism as we have known it is dead.”

Warren Buffett: “The economic system… rewards people with specialized talents in an extraordinary way that didn’t exist 50 or 100 years ago. That prosperity has not trickled down to everybody who is willing to work hard.”

The percentage of GDP that goes to workers is declining and has been for decades – it’s trending down to 50% which would be the lowest ever. AI is going to push it below that level in the coming months as more value heads into the cloud. . . .

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Worth reading in full.

(As is anything Yang writes, beginning with The War on Normal People: The Truth About America’s Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future.)

To preserve capitalism — and human decency — we need to divide the fruits of what have been thousands of years’ hard work and innovation more equitably.

“Strong floor, no ceiling” is the basic concept:  Universal Basic Income assuring everyone the bare essentials; unlimited opportunity to make millions and billions — but taxed at rates sufficient to provide Universal Basic Income.

With virtually free energy from the sun (and nuclear), once the infrastructure is built out . . . powering robots and data centers that do most of the work humans used to do . . . and powering the desalinization needed for abundant water (not least for those data centers) . . .

. . . we’re just a few years away from a world of undreamt-of leisure and prosperity — if we somehow manage not to do ourselves in one way or another.

The chances of our screwing it up do seem high; though less so, I think, with leaders like Obama, Biden, Mark Carney, and Zelenskyy (say) than Trump, Hegseth, Kim Jong-Un, and Putin (say).

90 SECONDS NOT TO BE MISSED

Are you kidding me?

The Motley Fool: The stock market is doing something for only the 2nd time in nearly 156 years, and history says it foreshadows disaster for Wall Street.

Sorry . . . but caution, I think, is indeed warranted.

Most of my crazy speculations would certainly fall in a crash — but if PRKR wins a lawsuit or an ANIX drug is proven to work or Amazon contracts with RNGE for data centers or OPRT continues its steady improvement — well, I’m not selling any of them.

Alex Vindman: Russian Sabotage Ops In Europe.

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Explosions at an Italian shell factory. Jammed signals around the Baltic Sea. Drones and munitions found at a German airport. . . .

With diminishing gains on the battlefield of an increasingly unpopular war, Moscow has turned its attention towards soft targets in Europe. . . .

Unfortunately for Putin, he has once again miscalculated Ukraine’s and Europe’s resolve to deliver a Russian defeat and end an era of Russian aggression.

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Worth reading in full.

Colonel Vindman, you will recall, sacrificed his (and his twin brother Eugene’s) military careers, when he called out Trump’s “perfect call” attempting to extort Ukrainian President Zelenskyy into finding him dirt on Biden in advance of the 2020 election.  The idea was to let Ukrainians die by withholding Congressionally mandated military assistance in order to get Zelenskyy to comply.  (Or complyy, as we say it in Ukrainian.)  Not unlike his perfect call to Georgia’s Republican secretary of state where he just wanted to find 11,780 votes to overturn the election.

I had hoped Alex would be the next Senator from Florida.

Now I hope it will be Angie Nixon, whom the betting markets gave just a 10% chance of winning the Florida primary (and Alex, a 90% chance).  She did it — and by a wide, 56-44 margin — by field organizing.  The odds of her winning 60 days from now are equally long — she’s down 9% in the latest poll I saw.  But my money’s on Angie.  And on David Jolly, former Republican Congressman, the perfect candidate to be Florida’s next governor.  Her voters will add to his win; his voters will add to hers.  I’m psyched.

Did you find 70 seconds to watch that Labor Day clip I posted yesterday (working 9 to 5 — get it?).  Pure fun.

Have a great day.  Back to work tomorrow.

But first . . .

KANSAS!

I’m having so much fun with this.  A new poll shows the good Reverend Adam Hamilton ahead of his Republican opponent 44%-43% — and I have to think the remaining 13% are going to break his way, too, the more they hear . . . and the more they see how badly total Republican control over all three branches of government is working out.

Flipping this Senate seat will be sweet.  Flipping the entire Senate will be sweeter still.  And prevent Trump from appointing more judges.

Watch the latest Hamilton ad some of you helped pay for.  Even his opponent’s pastor has affirming words.

> If you want to help drive this home, click “I can’t attend but want to help anyway.”  (Better still: attend!)

Also . . .

DOUBLE TAKE!

George Clooney’s classy, hopeful take (60 seconds).

An earthier take (60 seconds).

And now . . .

THE PERFECT CLIP FOR LABOR DAY

Here (70 seconds).