As We Brace For Milton . . . October 8, 2024 From the Charlotte Observer: Shame on Donald Trump for worsening NC’s Helene tragedy with political lies. Former President Donald Trump has politicized the situation at every turn, spreading falsehoods and conspiracies that fracture the community instead of bringing it together. The worst example is a social media post Trump made on Monday, in which he accused the federal government and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper of “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas. MAGA!” That same day, Trump also posted that the Biden administration has “left Americans to drown” in North Carolina and other states. . . . Trump has also said that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp couldn’t get President Joe Biden on the phone to help his state with hurricane relief — a claim that Kemp himself debunked — and falsely claimed that the government doesn’t have enough money to respond to the disaster because “Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants.” He’s called it “the worst response in the history of hurricanes” and suggested it would be the Biden administration’s own Hurricane Katrina. There’s no evidence to support any of those ridiculous claims. Here’s how to volunteer to help everyone from Dick Cheney and Mike Pence to Bernie Sanders and Taylor Swift keep Trump out of the White House.
The Truth About Hurricane Helene Relief Efforts October 6, 2024 Gotta love this guy. He seems to really know what he’s talking about. Watch. VOTING Not sure what judges to vote for or which way to vote on obscure ballot initiatives? Click BlueVoterGuide.Org. Enter your address. Make your choices. Try it — even right now, if you have a few minutes. Spread the word! WINNING Everyone from Dick Cheney, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, Taylor Swift, Willie Nelson — and the leaders of all our democratic allies around the world! — are counting on us to get this right. Rob F.: “The Sierra Club’s letter-writing campaign is a really easy way to have a positive impact.” And here’s how to volunteer locally.
BLUE VOTER GUIDE — How Did I Not Know About This?! October 5, 2024October 5, 2024 I voted today. Dropped my absentee ballot straight into the post office outgoing mail slot. It felt great. But when I first opened the three-page official ballot, I faced the usual helplessness. I knew my choice for president, of course. But state tax collector? Which judges to vote to retain? So here’s all you do: Click BlueVoterGuide.Org. Enter your address.* Make your choices. Try it — even right now, if you have a few minutes. If you think it’s as helpful as I do, spread the word. *But wait. Just above the address field (and below the big 1), click “instructions.” You’ll see how to build your ballot, save it, print it, and share it with friends. (Not your real, official ballot, of course; but a way to remember what you plan to do inside the voting booth or when you vote by mail.) BONUS Rob F.: “I’m participating in the Sierra Club’s letter-writing campaign. It’s a really easy way for people to have a positive contact with potential Harris voters in swing states. This link provides all the details for anyone who wants to have an impact.”
Two Astonishing Things (One Of Them, TOTALLY Astonishing) October 4, 2024 DID YOU LIKE SEINFELD? VEEP? If you missed Monday’s Zoom with Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn, consider signing up for this one with Julia Louis-Dreyfus — Sunday 7pm EDT. As before, you can “buy” a free ticket and decide whether and how much to give once you hear the pitch. I, for one, was impressed. But this is not one of the astonishing things. DO YOU LIKE TAYLOR SWIFT? THE 76-ERS? CRUISING TO COZUMEL? Andy Cohen? Stephen Colbert? Shakira? P!nk? Sign up — or get your kids or grandkids to signup — to earn free raffle tickets at FanOut.Vote. That is not one of the astonishing things, either. The first astonishing thing is Jack Smith’s 165-page brief outlining in damning detail how defendant Trump acted to cling to power after losing the 2020 election. No Trump supporters will read it, just as none read the Mueller Report. (Known to movie lovers as, the “I’m not listening!” approach to knowledge acquisition). But choosing not to know something doesn’t make it any less true. Not being a Trump supporter, maybe you’ll breeze through it this weekend. (They are double-spaced pages.) The second — TOTALLY — astonishing thing is this 14-minute audio clip. Two experts talking colloquially about artificial intelligence. What makes it astonishing is that the two experts are not human. It is a conversation about AI between two AI’s. As veteran computer scientist Gregory Miller — who co-founded the OSET Institute and TrustTheVote and has his own, real, podcast — explained it for me: This clip is from a podcast that explains a new audio AI technology that greatly enhances the emerging conversational capabilities of AI agents. There is just one completely wild twist: the podcast participants engaged in this conversation about how this new level of conversational AI tech works… are both AI agents themselves. They’re not real; they don’t exist; they’re figments of two machines’ creation. Both were fed a blog post from computer scientist Simon Willison and subsequently autonomically generated a real-time, on-the-fly conversation with one another. What makes it so ridiculously authentic is the integration of disfluencies. . . language elements such as changes in tone, pauses, “ums” and “ahs” . . . because, well, no one can listen to a pair of robots with mechanical-audio voices talk with one another. It boldly illustrates the deep and disturbing depth of AI deep-fake potential. Sure, AI may cure cancer and Parkinsons and solve the climate crisis. That’s nice. But as it races along, where will actual humans fit in? And what if someone decides to use it for ill? “I fear it is unstoppable and uncontrollable,” I wrote Miller. “Unstoppable, yes,” he agreed, “but not uncontrollable. We need responsive and responsible regulation. And on this point, I cannot overemphasize how urgent it is to have the right technologists at the tables of policy formulation.” My sense is that he should be one of them. BONUS – Humor from Our Neighbor to the North America: Have You Lost Your Mind?
40 Trillion Gallons Of Water / CNF / SQNS October 3, 2024October 3, 2024 John Kitsteiner’s Note to Friends Outside of the South: We live in Greene County, East Tennessee. Our county’s southern border is the Tennessee-North Carolina state line that runs along the heights of the Appalachian Mountains. We are within the hardest hit region of the U.S. The questions I have been hearing a lot is why was this so bad, and why weren’t people prepared. I’ll try to answer those questions in the following post. Hurricane Helene was the strongest hurricane (in recorded history) to hit Florida’s big bend region (on the eastern edge of the panhandle). It is the deadliest hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The death toll is over 160 so far. We are still finding bodies, and there are still many, many people missing as I write this today six days after the hurricane hit land. I work in the emergency department at Greeneville Community Hospital. The hospital itself has been evacuated because we have no water in the majority of the county. We are still running our emergency department as a critical access site for our community. Fortunately, I have a well and didn’t lose electricity for long. I was able to haul water in a 300 gallon tote in the back of my truck to the hospital for the first few days so we could flush toilets and wash hands. It took a few days, but we now have porta-potties and water tanks on trucks to keep the emergency department running. Under an hour from our hospital to the east, Unicoi County Hospital was flooded requiring patients and providers to be rescued from the roof via helicopter. Under an hour from our hospital to the south, over the mountains, Asheville, NC has been hit particularly hard. But why was this region hit so hard? First, we had a lot of rain before Hurricane Helene even showed up. Depending on the area, we had 7-11 inches of rain in the week before the first storm clouds of the hurricane arrived. This rain saturated the ground and filled ponds and streams. Then the hurricane arrived. She barreled her way up through the panhandle of Florida, quickly shot through Georgia, and then slowed down and stalled over North Carolina and East Tennessee. And that’s right where we live. The reason she stalled involves atmospheric pressure conditions that I don’t fully understand, but the result was that this hurricane dropped 20 inches to over 30 inches of rain in some areas… that’s an estimated 40 trillion gallons of rain. How much is 40 trillion gallons of water? 40 trillion gallons of water is enough to cover the entire state of North Carolina with 3.5 FEET of water. 40 trillion gallons of water is enough to fill 60 MILLION Olympic-sized swimming pools. 40 trillion gallons of water is 619 DAYS of water flowing over Niagara Falls. So this is an unprecedented amount of rain already falling on an area that had just received ground-saturated rain. But it wasn’t just the amount of rain, it was the geography of where that rain fell. The southeastern slopes (of western North Carolina) and the northwestern slopes (of East Tennessee) acted as funnels or rain catchments that directed all this water downhill and concentrated it into streams and rivers running into the valleys. It overflowed these streams and rivers causing massive flooding. How much flooding? The French Broad River usually crests at 1.5 feet… but it reached 24.6 feet during the storm. The Nolichuckey River rose to almost 22 feet. The Nolichuckey River Dam in Greene County, during the peak of the flooding, took on 1.2 MILLION gallons of water per SECOND. Compare that to Niagara Falls which peaks at 700,000 gallons per second. Fortunately, this dam held… but barely, with damage. Consequences. The flooding, and all the things the flooding carried with it (large trees, vehicles, buildings, etc.) caused widespread damage. It destroyed homes and businesses. It destroyed roads and bridges. It knocked out power. This isolated many places for days and days from normal rescue efforts and evacuation plans. Here in Greene County, the flooding destroyed the intake pump for the county’s primary water supply. We hope they will be able to bring in a temporary pump to bypass the damaged system, but that still may take a couple weeks. In the meantime, most people in the county have no clean water for drinking, washing hands, or bathing, and no water for sanitation. I have taken care of people in the emergency department who had their homes literally washed away. Everything they own, other than the clothes on their back, has been lost. Many friends have had their homes almost destroyed by flooding and their houses are filled with mud and debris. And this is just in my immediate area. Other places around us have unfortunately been hit harder. Why weren’t people prepared? No one in the mountains of North Carolina or East Tennessee prepares for a hurricane. It’s kind of like asking why someone in Iowa doesn’t prepare for a tidal wave or why someone in Florida doesn’t prepare for a blizzard. It’s not what happens, like ever. This was a combination of already rain-saturated ground before the hurricane hit, the hurricane/storm stalling over this region dumping unprecedented amounts of rainfall in a small area, and the geography of mountains channeling and concentrating all this water into the valleys below that created a perfect storm, so to speak, of conditions that caused this disaster. It couldn’t have been prevented or prepared for. Please feel free to share this. Hopefully it answers some questions and provides a better understanding of what has happened and why it is so devastating. Pride goeth before the fall, so I don’t want to shout this too loudly . . . but of the 15 stocks I commented on six weeks ago, only one is down much (OPRT, from $3.13 to $2.82, making it, I hope, an even better moonshot) . . . most are up 10% or 20% (vs. 3% for the market as a whole) . . . and three have done really nicely: > PRKR — up 150%. I haven’t sold. > CNF — also up 150% — in just the last couple of days, no less, on enormous volume, I don’t know why. Yesterday, I sold some for a tax loss, holding all those in which I have a profit. > SQNS — up 100%. That $200 million they were supposed to get . . . they got. So with something like $1 a share in cash net of debt, and a profitable business, I’m betting on its going higher.
NOT TO BE MISSED October 1, 2024 This first clip starts with the guy who founded your local Walgreens and financed some pro-Hitler stuff . . . introduces you to Elizabeth Dilling, “the female Führer” . . . and leads to J.D. Vance following in at least a few of her footsteps — calling for the end of the American Republic. This second picks up with Vance saying that most of American culture should be “ripped out like a tumor” and citing the ideas of Curtis Yarvin, who says “Americans are going to have to get over their dictator phobia.” Putin and Trump feel exactly the same way! They’ve been working on this for eight years now and are getting really close to a breakthrough. (See, too: Tucker Carlson and the Right’s Love Affair with Dictators.) In related news, it turns out there may be more going on with the Longshoremen’s strike — and it’s timing right before the election — than just a call for a 60% wage hike and a ban on increased productivity. No, it turns out that the head of the union has close ties to Trump — and that they both have ties to the mob. (Daggett was never convicted, though it should be noted that one of his co-defendants failed to show; his body was eventually found decomposing in the trunk of a car outside a New Jersey diner.) “Read all about it” in this colorful tweet or (for example) in this more traditional report: Harold Daggett: How union leader who fought mob tie allegations is holding the US economy to ransom. We need to win this election. The whole free world is counting on it. Pitch In! Here’s how to volunteer locally.
Now I Just Have To Go Read The Other Four October 1, 2024 5 Investment Books That Taught Me More Than an MBA (says a guy with 573,000 Instagram followers). And in other news . . . I spent an hour yesterday texting with a billionaire who holds Harvard Law and Harvard Business degrees and is an idiot. (I say this with a mix of affection and frustration, as we’ve been friends for more than half a century.) He calls Trump, with whom he used to golf, “dishonest” and a “monster,” so he’s not going to vote for him. But he’s not going to vote for Kamala either. He’s “sitting this one out.” What??? “You want socialism?” he asks. Well, we already have socialism, I tell him, and have had it all his life. Public schools, public roads, the social safety net. So it’s not as though extending $35 insulin to all who need it, not just seniors . . . and providing first-time-buyer assistance to promote private homeownership and $50,000 tax incentives to promote small-business start-ups . . . would suddenly push us over the cliff from capitalism to socialism. “You want open borders and 13,000 convicted murderers RELEASED into the USA?” he asks. Leave aside that it is Trump who killed the bipartisan bill that would finally have resolved the border crisis . . . so it is solely Trump who is responsible for it now. Here’s the real story on those 13,000 murderers she has allowed to roam our streets: > First, “the vast majority” (to quote ICE) arrived in the decades before Harris was Vice President — some of them when Trump was President. > Second, most of them are not roaming the streets — they’re in prison. See the difference? (These two stories provide the facts.) But like all those Haitians terrorizing Springfield as they feast on dogs and cats, Trump cultists — and even idiots like my friend — don’t care. They spread this stuff anyway. He absolutely does not want Trump re-elected (and could easily afford to throw five or ten million dollars at the problem); yet won’t do the one most minimal thing he could do to help prevent it. Vote. Which makes our work that much harder. Here’s how to volunteer locally.
Nasrallah Is Dead September 29, 2024 Jonathan Elkhoury: As a Lebanese, this is one of the happiest days in Lebanon’s history. As a Middle Easterner, this is one of the most transformative days for the Middle East. As a human being who holds peace before my eyes, this is the most important day for our region. Nasrallah and Hezbollah have terrorized the Lebanese people since the 1980s. He is responsible for the continuous downfall of Lebanon’s economy and sovereignty. He bears responsibility for countless assassinations of fine Lebanese men and women, solely for opposing his grip on our precious country. Nasrallah is also responsible for the slaughter of thousands of Syrian children, women, and men, as well as for other atrocities across the Middle East. Every Lebanese and every decent human being should feel joy at the downfall of one of the greatest evils of our time. Now, we have a real chance to look forward, ensuring Hezbollah’s weapons are handed over to the Lebanese authorities, and sitting down with Israelis and the West for genuine negotiations on normalization and peace between our countries—Israel and Lebanon. Jared Kushner Says America Should Tell Israel To Finish The Job. Not someone I would normally expect to link to; but read it and let me know what you think. . . . today, with the confirmed killing of Nasrallah and at least 16 top commanders eliminated in just nine days, was the first day I started thinking about a Middle East without Iran’s fully loaded arsenal aimed at Israel. So many more positive outcomes are possible. . . . No one knows the Middle East like Dennis Ross. He and Prof. Sonnenfeld also see reason for hope: Death of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Brings New Chance for Peace . . . Just when the prospect of peace in the Middle East seemed further away than ever, the dramatic death of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah significantly alters the balance of power and offers a renewed opportunity for peace. . . . BONUS Kathy M: “Perhaps, Eric Adams could pay his debt to society by sharing his culinary skills with KP duty in prison?! And given the tragic deaths caused by Hurricane Helene, hats off to NOAA for saving us from an even worse outcome. Yet, NOAA is on the Project 2025 hit list.” I’m co-hosting this zoom TONIGHT at 6pm Eastern time. Consider “buying” a free ticket — and ponying up if you like what you hear.
The Word From An Extraterrestrial Entity September 28, 2024 Tough words for Steve Schwarzman (60 seconds). I asked my classmate and friend of more than half a century (who abandoned Trump at one point but now is fully back on board) for his point of view, but, as of press time: no response. JD Vance, meanwhile, in 2020 text messages, said Trump “thoroughly failed to deliver” — yet now (having also called him “America’s Hitler”) is fully on board. Trump’s last VP — “hang Mike Pence” — has quite famously declared Trump should never be president again. So, too, Shark Tank’s Mark Cuban. Even Bashar, the “extraterrestrial entity from a parallel reality in the future” channeled by Darryl Anka, of whom I had not heard until today but who has millions of followers — and who until now has never dabbled in politics — even Bashar seems to have adopted an urgently pro-Kamala point of view! Embrace the joy! Pitch in! Volunteer!
Appalling September 26, 2024 I’ve just read the indictment against Mayor Eric Adams. Appalling. The idea that he’s said it’s all lies? Ridiculous. He needs to go immediately. And then to trial. And then to prison, at least for a little while. (Though I did like his cookbook.) Bring back Mike Bloomberg! And speaking of appalling . . . “I tried to push him, he kept coming back” (60 seconds). So, look: It’s time to be a man — and vote for a woman (75 seconds).