Author: A.T.

The party that once stood for individual freedom wants to:

> have the final say in women’s reproductive health care decisions;

> get between parents, kids, their doctors and mental health professionals and have the final say on gender-affirming care.

Who better than middle-aged straight white non-professionals to make these decisions?

Ideally, of course, the once-Grand Old Party would prefer that trans people simply not exist.

(It’s analogous to the way many Republicans — including their undisputed leader — wish non-white people would go back to where they came from.)

But at present, all they can officially do is treat trans people badly and not much care when they’re murdered.

One wonders what might be next.  Banning contraception?

As you may know, 195 House Republicans last year voted to block the Right to Contraception Act.

Have you seen this 30-second spot?

Talk about contrasts!

This guy asked President Obama if he’s depressed.

So cool.

(Obama’s overarching life advice, albeit not part of this interview: “Be kind and be useful.”)

The current former president (“I’d like to punch him in the face”), meanwhile, kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside and now is gearing up to be America’s first Mussolini, ending our 247-year experiment with democracy:

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. . . Mr. Trump and his associates have a broader goal: to alter the balance of power by increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House, according to a review of his campaign policy proposals and interviews with people close to him. . . .

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In case you haven’t read the full story, it’s worth your time.

We all have demons and angels battling within us, like wolves.

(“But grandfather!” the children ask.  “Which wolf will win?!”  To which the old Cherokee replies: “The one you feed.”)

For the past 7 years, the G.O.P. has been feeding the wrong wolf.

Sure, Bush 43 was a terrible president in tremendously important ways.  And Jimmy Carter was in many ways a failed president.  But in retirement, Bush has been gracious and sane; Carter has been a terrific force force good — as have been former presidents Clinton and Obama and, for that matter, former vice presidents Gore and Biden.

(Their former veeps, Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney, and Mike Pence, may not have done much for the world since leaving office, but all three have endorsed democracy and the rule of law, in defiance of today’s G.O.P. leadership.  That may be a low bar, but in today’s G.O.P. it actually takes a lot of courage.)

Trump is in a totally different ballpark.

It’s not conservative versus liberal or taciturn versus gregarious or handsome versus brainy or tall versus short — or any of the other contrasts we’re used to seeing.

It’s fascist-dictator-wannabe versus all the other men and women who have ever run for the presidency since 1789.

ANIX

A hopeful update on one of our crazy speculations, made only with money we can truly afford to lose.

I’m forever writing speeches in my head.

Here’s a piece of one I’d like to see the President give:

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My team wanted me to call what we’re doing Bidenomics.  That’s what the Wall Street Journal and some others have been calling it.  But you know, folks:  it’s not about me, it’s about you.  It’s not Biden economics, no matter what the Wall Street Journal says.  At the end of the day, it’s KITCHEN TABLE economics.  Middle out, bottom up, Democratic KITCHEN TABLE economics. 

As contrasted with Republican trickle-down PRIVATE JET economics. 

And do you know what history has shown us?  KITCHEN TABLE economics — growing the economy with an emphasis on opportunity and a strong middle class — has always worked.  But trickle-down, PRIVATE JET economics — with its tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy — has never worked for anybody but those at the very top. 

PRIVATE JET trickle-down Republican economics has just increased inequality.  The rich have gotten dramatically richer — trillions of dollars richer — while most hard workers have found it tougher and tougher to get by.

Until now.  We’re still early days, but with inflation coming down for 12 straight months and unemployment lower than it’s been in 50 years, real wages have begun to rise.  Getting a little ahead of the game for a change.  That’s the kind of economics — whatever you call it — I want to keep coming.

And it will keep coming as we put people to work at good jobs revitalizing America’s infrastructure.  We’re just getting started.

And by the way? 

Two things.

One:  You know where a majority of those infrastructure dollars are going?  To the states of Republicans who voted against our MAKING these investments — but are now taking credit for them.  I don’t care: all 50 states matter to me.  But imagine that.

Okay, that’s one.

Here’s two:  When I talk about PRIVATE JET economics only helping the rich — that’s true.  But I want to tell you something.  I love the rich.  Or at least a lot of them.  I’m serious!   Some of my strongest supporters are rich, God love ’em.   And they’ve worked hard to get rich and done a helluva lot of good along the way.

KITCHEN TABLE economics isn’t about punishing the rich.

It’s not about hurting folks with private jets and 200-foot yachts.

It’s about helping America’s middle class, and those busting their butts to climb INTO the middle class.  THAT’s who Democrats are fighting for.

And do you know the best part?  When the middle class does well, the economy does well, profits grow, and the ultra-wealthy do great.  KITCHEN TABLE economics winds up working well for everybody.

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I couldn’t fit it in anywhere, but maybe a line, too, like, “You know, I’m basically an Amtrak guy.  All my life.  But I get the appeal of private jets.  Mine’s called Air Force One.  You own it; but for a while, I’m the guy who gets to ride in it.  Thank you for that, folks.  It makes my job a whole lot easier.”

What do you think?

CHRA / CHRB

Those of us who bought CHRA three months ago — with money we could truly afford to lose — as suggested here, here, and here at around $2.75, $2.20, and $1.40, respectively — got bought out Thursday at $6.  And I like to think the game may not be over.  The company was arguably worth much more.  But for now, at least, we’ll have to settle for a quick double, triple, or quadruple.

Those who bought CHRB instead (or in addition) between $9.50 and $13.50 as suggested here and here saw it close at $16.49 last night, even as we pocketed the first of what should a dozen or so 53-cent quarterly interest payments before being paid $25 at maturity.  So that one, too, may be a winner.

RECAF / PRKR / BOREF

To emphasize the “money you can truly afford to lose” part of this game, I would note that those of us who bought these three — among lots of others — have not fared.  The game’s not entirely over, to be sure.  (What’s another year or five when we’ve been waiting 24 years for BOREF?).  But of RECAF, my primary source writes:

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I’m at a loss.

They didn’t drill all the wells they said they would. Instead they’ve been gathering more seismic and aero mag data. Unfortunately they’re now running out of money and will need a partnership/farm-in/buyout by a large company to pay for more drilling.

The geology turned out to be different from what they expected to find. But I know a couple of geologists who still like the prospects. And another who’s sold most of his.

Then there are respected folks in the online communities who think the company is nothing but a scam and have sold out entirely. I have to admit that their pessimism makes some sense given all the missed targets and broken promises. I’ve sold half of my holdings at prices between $0.90 and $1.15.

I sure never expected we’d be in this position at this point. I am not in the camp of “it’s a scam,” as buying a rig, shipping it to Africa and drilling three wells seems like a lot of effort just to fleece shareholders. But it’s getting ugly.

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You know me well enough to know that — except for shares on which I can take a tax loss — I’m holding on.  Not out of any logic.  The prospect of losing $1  just hurts me less than the prospect of missing out on making $5 — vanishingly slim though that prospect may be.  If I were fully rational, I’d be Star Trek’s Spock, with pointy ears.

CUTTING RED TAPE

Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania:

We fixed I-95 in 12 days. Here are our lessons for U.S. infrastructure.

SAVING DEMOCRACY

Got five hours, spread over four Saturdays?

We perhaps owe it to our forefathers who died fighting for it — and to future generations — not to let democracy slip through our hands.

Check it out!

THE DOG ATE MY COMPUTER FAN

I turned on my trusty old Lenovo a couple of weeks ago to the sound of a stiff breeze whooshing through the room.  The fan had suddenly been given voice.  It caused no harm, so for those couple of weeks I just lived with foreboding.

This past Thursday I turned it on to find the whoosh gone — replaced by a loud persistent buzzzzzz.  As if someone were at my door.  I thought the whole laptop might fly apart and closed the cover immediately.

If you’ve ever tried migrating to a new PC, especially if the old one is suddenly kaput (or stolen), you know the feeling I had.

But guess what!  The repair guys around the corner from me cleaned the fan and tightened a loose wire that was hitting it 50 times a second, producing  that loud buzz, and — $100 and a day later — I was back in business, ready to annoy you once more.

I count my blessings quarter-hourly.

Have a great week!

Journalists Need To Sound The Alarm, writes Mark Jacob.  “It’s high time for news media to confront the rise of fascism.“

He asks why “journalists covering the biggest story of their career—the attempted overthrow of democracy—treat it like routine politics?” 

And he offers four reasons. 

E.g.:

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Some journalists see the alarming fascist turn of the Republican Party as a temporary error in judgment, like a basically good dad staying out drinking with his pals all night. Except it’s been eight years and dad hasn’t come home yet. He may never come home.

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“It’s time,” he concludes, “for journalists to panic responsibly.”

It’s a big deal that Joe Biden has led NATO’s reinvigoration and expansion to include Finland and now, it seems, Sweden.

It should be heartening to anyone, Republican or Democrat, who wants to live in a peaceful, largely democratic world.

And did you notice that unemployment has been under 4% for 17 months now — the longest stretch in more than 50 years?

Or that inflation has fallen for 11 months in a row — back to where it was after 8 years of Ronald Reagan’s presidency — and is getting ever closer to where it needs to be?  Used car prices fell 4% last month alone, down 10% year over year.

DNC Treasurer Virginia McGregor:

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While the GOP is running across the country taking credit for legislation they didn’t support when it was up for a vote and hoping people will be distracted by the micro issues they keep trying to bring to the forefront, Democrats are focused on the macro issues. Inflation is down, job creation is up, and our country is getting back on track.

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Oppenheimer — the film that will get you back into the theater: July 21.

And speaking of movie theaters, APE ($1.91) — the intrinsically ever so slightly more valuable twin of AMC ($4.39) — will almost surely be converted into AMC shares fairly soon, at which point there will be just one set of shares — AMC — and one stock price.  Just where that price will settle, and then move over time, will be interesting to watch.  Having bought our APE last November at around $1.05, I’m comfortable hanging on for a while to see what happens.  (Famous last words?)

Either way, I’m going to see Oppenheimer.

Why liberals protesting cluster munitions for Ukraine are wrong.

Executive summary: The reason so many countries ban them is that the unexploded ones can later kill or maim civilians — in this case, Ukrainians — long after the war is over.  Max Boot argues that if, knowing this, the Ukrainians have decided they must use them anyway, despite the risk to their own people, it is their decision to make, not ours.

The blame for their use, really, falls not on us, or even on the Ukrainians, but on Putin for launching his invasion, committing countless war crimes, and firing his own cluster munitions (which are leaving far more “duds” unexploded on Ukrainian soil than ours will).

Biden acknowledged it was a difficult decision, but I think made the right one.

It’s a little embarrassing that my best investment — ever — was in a deeply sophomoric musical about 52 dead nuns (poisoned by tainted vichyssoise, so the surviving nuns had to put on a talent show to raise the money to bury them), called Nunsense.  It played throughout the world and spawned spin-offs that included Nunsense A-Men (the all-male version), Nuncrackers, and Meshuggah-Nuns.

The creator of all this silliness, Danny Goggin — a boyish 34 when I invested, now a boyish 80 — tells the tale here.

Fun.

Linda Greenhouse reviews John Roberts’ 18-year regime.

Sad.

Depoliticize the Court!

The Laptop — How Credible Are Giuliani, Et Al, Really?

A former Republican Congressman suggests there may be less here than the Right would have us think.

I’m not sure it’s worth the full 7 minutes, but you’ll get the gist pretty quick.

However the laptop stuff turns out, Hunter Biden has no role in the Administration, so who really cares?  (Versus, say, Jared Kushner and his deal with Qatar.)

Here’s 4 minutes on the Republican front-runner. who actually was the previous Administration and plans to be the next one.  So we should care a lot.

President Biden, by contrast — for all the Right makes of his occasional stumble — is all the things you’d want in a President: thoughtful, wise, and steady.  Watch this past weekend’s interview with Fareed Zakaria and see if you agree.

Sorry to give you so many links.  Take the rest of the week off.

Not original with me, but true:

We’ve had 46 Presidents.

They’ve been indicted on a total of 71 felony counts.

Here’s how it breaks down:

Presidents    # of Felony Counts

1-44                           0

45                              71

46                              0

Most Republicans think Ronald Reagan’s economy was terrific.

After 8 years of his magic, the unemployment rate was 5.3% — versus today’s 3.6%.

Inflation was the same 4% that it is today.

So Joe Biden’s economy is perhaps even more terrific?

A perpetually surprised media isn’t doing its job, argues Jennifer Rubin in the Washington Post:

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You might find it remarkable that outlets touting their economic foresightedness and keen analysis could be continually surprised about the economy’s strength after 29 consecutive months of job growth, inflation steadily declining, durable goods having been up for three consecutive months, 35,000 new infrastructure projects, an extended period in which real wages exceeded inflation and outsize gains for lower wage-earners. It’s as though outlets are so invested in the narrative of failure and imminent recession that reams of positive data have had little impact on their “narrative.”

Part of the problem might be the media’s preference for political horse-race coverage over events on the ground. “What do voters think?” (about what? about the media’s own negative spin on the economy?) replaces “What is going on?”

We have seen far too little coverage of the economic transformation in little towns, rural areas and aging metro centers brought about by new investment in plants, infrastructure projects and green energy related to the Chips Act. . . .

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So far.

The once-Grand Old Party overwhelmingly favors him to reflect their values.

Who wants their kids to grow up to be like Barack Obama (“be kind and be useful”) — or Joe Biden — when they can grow up to be like Donald Trump (“I’d like to punch him in the face”)?

Japanese firm believes it could make a solid-state battery with a range of 745 miles that charges in 10 minutes.

And not just any Japanese firm — Toyota.

Perhaps not great for Tesla or General Motors, but potentially great for the planet.

We have all the energy we need, virtually free, from the sun.

Not just for cars; for everything.

And we have the technology.

All we need to solve now, as President Clinton used to say so often near the end of his presidency, is the oldest problem of all.  Not splitting the atom or mapping the human genome or landing men on the moon.  Just this: learning to live with each other.

Thom Hartmann asks at Raw Story:

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What would America be like with ‘Dear Leader’ in 2024?

NBC News reported this week that Trump is not only still leading the GOP field, but that his margin is growing:

. . . Another national survey, reported by NBC on Monday, shows a tossup in a Trump-Biden matchup; Biden’s small lead is within the margin of error.

All of which raises the question: what would America be like if Trump or a similarly fascist Republican were to take the White House in 2024? What would the dire warnings about American fascism, were they realized, mean in real life?

Louise and I have been in Spain all this week while Jefferson Smith fills in for me on my radio/TV show, and we’ve learned more than a little that might answer those questions.

Most Americans, when they think of fascism, think of goosestepping Nazi soldiers and death camps, and believe that system of government was totally crushed by the Allies in 1945 at the end of World War II. But Spain was fascist right up until dictator Francisco Franco’s death in 1975 at the age of 82.

There are still many people here in Spain who regard the Franco time fondly; if you were on his side, supported his Falange party — later called simply “The Movement” — or were assiduously nonpolitical, life could be relatively normal.

. . . most people simply avoided politics back during Franco’s time — and are still, to this day, reluctant to discuss the horrors of his regime.

. . . If you weren’t political, life went on like in much of the rest of “free” Europe. People worked, went to theatre and dance clubs, raised their kids, vacationed, cared for pets, engaged in hobbies, fell in love or got divorced: as long as Franco’s regime wasn’t mentioned in a negative light, life was good.

Like in most fascist or neofascist countries through history and today the wealthy were the most well taken care of, but even working people and the poor enjoyed a reasonable social safety net. In 1942, Franco mandated a national healthcare insurance program, for example, and throughout his reign expanded the number of hospital beds and clinics across the country; in 1951 he led a movement through much of the Spanish speaking world to establish what something like American Social Security.

If you spoke out against his fascist movement job opportunities vanished, you could be imprisoned, or even “disappeared,” as happened to tens of thousands. One of the people we spoke with here told us how the media was entirely in the bag for Franco with pro-fascist slogans and news shorts airing constantly, along with commentary praising him even interspersing music and programs on radio and TV.

Trump and his followers have given us numerous insights into how he’d transform American society to resemble something like Franco’s regime. Like with Franco, loyalty to Trump and his cult was a far more important factor in rising through the ranks of government and even private industry.

Trump has promised — most recently just a few weeks ago — that he would use the awesome police powers of the federal government to target his political enemies for persecution, imprisonment, and possibly even death.

Several former DOJ officials, men Trump has suggested could lead the agency if he again becomes president, have endorsed stripping our federal police agencies of their independence and making them armed factions of Trump’s movement.

Republicans don’t talk about it out loud very much, unlike Nixon’s man G. Gordon Liddy, who used to love on fascism back in the day when he signed memos using Hitler’s SS symbol. But MAGA Republicans have a model for a future America and it grows both closer and clearer every day.

What could it be? What would it look like? How will it most likely come about?

First, and essential to American fascism, Republicans envision a strong-man Leader who will hold power for as long as he (it’s almost always a “he”) chooses, with the transition to the next Leader determined by The Leader himself.

This has been the primary characteristic of every fascist-type of government to emerge in the 7000-year written history of the modern world.

When Trump was running for re-election, at rallies in both Nevada and Wisconsin, he came right out and said that not only would he win the 2020 election but that he’d also be re-elected again in 2024 and 2028. He was dead serious.

Sure, our constitution says a president can only serve two terms: so did the Russian constitution, until Putin got it amended. Trump was planning the same, and his followers were — if the response at the rallies when he announced it is any indicator — ecstatic at the prospect.

That single strongman Leader, and his hand-selected toadies at every secondary or tertiary level of government, is the key to understanding everything else that happens when a country flips from democracy to oligarchy to fascism.

For example, in a fascist state the way that you as an average citizen ensure your own advancement and economic, personal, and political security is by sucking up to that one man (albeit often through one of his factotum’s). You either become an acolyte/follower or you find yourself on the outside looking in.

If you think this sounds extreme, just look at today’s Republican Party, which has become the prototype for how these MAGA Republicans will reinvent the United States if they gain power.

Liz Cheney spoke against Trump, and the Wyoming GOP expelled her while Trump supported a primary challenger. Four Republicans who voted to impeach Trump faced such a backlash that they decided to retire from politics: Adam Kinzinger, Anthony Gonzalez, John Katko, and Fred Upton.

Not only is fealty to The Leader required for political advancement, it’s also a requirement for individual economic advancement. Employers eager for state contracts or The Leader’s endorsements of their products or services demote or fire those insufficiently loyal to The Leader.

Psychologist Dr. Bandy Lee was fired from Yale University for writing that Trump was dangerously mentally ill. Schoolteacher Leah Kinyon was fired from her job for saying that “I hate Donald Trump. … He is a sexual predator. He’s a literal moron.” Juli Brisker was fired from her job with government contractor Akima for giving Trump’s motorcade the finger.

Rebekah Jones was fired by Ron DeSantis for telling the truth about his covering up Florida Covid statistics. Florida’s Orange County Health Director Dr. Raul Pino was removed for encouraging his staff to get vaccinated.

When companies defy The Leader they are brutally punished, as DeSantis is doing right now to Disney and the Tampa Bay Rays. Soon companies don’t even try to stand up to The Leader, including media companies.

And now Trump mini-me DeSantis has signed legislation giving him the authority to “hold accountable” college professors, reviewing their politics every five years so those who aren’t totally on board with his agenda can lose tenure and be fired. The headline at Salon says it all:

“DeSantis signs bill requiring Florida students, professors to register political views with state: Universities may lose funding if staff and students’ beliefs do not satisfy Florida’s GOP-run legislature.”

You end up doing things on The Leader’s behalf, whether you’re supporting his party, working at a private corporation, or engaged in the nonprofit sector like teaching at a university or medical center.

Defying or challenging The Leader brings opprobrium; supporting The Leader is the path to career advancement. The Trump White House and DeSantis Governor’s Office are filled with examples.

Everything is done for The Leader because The Leader is the state. The state and The Leader have become one.

If you challenge The Leader, you’re challenging the state, and that’s treason. As Marjorie Taylor Greene said of former speaker Pelosi:

“She took an oath to protect American citizens and uphold our laws. And she gives aid and comfort to our enemies who illegally invade our land. That’s what treason is. And by our law, representatives and senators can be kicked out and no longer serve in our government — and it’s a crime punishable by death”.

Whatever the Leader says becomes the law. This is called “rule by decree” and it’s where every fascist in history – including those for the thousands of years before Mussolini “invented” the word – has ended up.

The power to rule by decree goes back to the days of kings and is also embedded in our laws about the president’s emergency powers. Trump came close to invoking it with an “emergency declaration” when he lost the election. General Flynn begged him to do it and “temporarily suspend the Constitution.”

It now appears that the reason Trump was showing classified Iranian battle plans to reporters at Bedminister was to trash-talk General Mark Milley as “revenge” for Milley’s refusing to use the military like Flynn wanted to complete the January 6th coup.

Next time, he won’t be so restrained and he will have surrounded himself in advance with people like Flynn who will make it happen.

Yet, while it will change how power is distributed in our government, things will still look much the same, just like during Franco’s reign here in Spain.

If a fascist like Trump or DeSantis rises to power again in the United States, there will still be all the trappings of democracy.

The House and Senate, state houses and governors, bureaucracies and political systems will remain intact. Everything looks normal on the surface.

But when you peel off the top layer, you discover that all of those people in all of those offices, whether elected or bureaucratic, are serving only one principle and one person and that is The Leader.

Be they governors, secretaries of state, United States senators, members of the US House, state representatives, or even a part-time guy working at a polling place in Michigan, they might get a call at any time from The Leader demanding that they do something for him, whether it’s legal or not.

There will still be opposition parties and political candidacies in a Republican fascist America, although if any of them seriously challenges The Leader or shows the ability to disrupt the status quo, they’ll be discovered to have a secret drug habit or get imprisoned for corruption or other made-up charges.

Nobody will really notice, though. People will just shrug their shoulders and assume another crook got caught. The swamp is being cleaned up.

The prosperity of the company you work for will depend in part on how well it supports the politics of The Leader. Today we see this writ large in Russia and the GOP’s new role model, Hungary.

The Leader helps a few dozen oligarchs he knows are loyal to him seize control of the nation’s major industries, and every smaller company in each of those industries must directly or indirectly answer to that oligarch.

Those who fail to are bought out, shut down, or simply cannot find customers or supplies because nobody will do business with them.

The industry where this is most visible at first is the media.

Some media organizations will be absorbed by the government itself, as Putin has done in Russia; others will be bought out and run by the Leader’s oligarch buddies, as is the case today in Hungary and Turkey (among others).

Soon opposition voices vanish from all but the most obscure media, and those few opposing voices that are tolerated are pointed to by the Leader as proof the nation “is still an open democracy.”

Jews and people of color may find a rougher time maintaining a job or staying safe from vigilantes, abuse, and discrimination but white conservatives will be just fine, particularly white conservative men. The majority of Americans, so long as they pay attention to football instead of politics, won’t even notice how the nation has changed.

There will still be Christmas parties, although people celebrating Hanukkah or Muslims praying may want to pull the shades closed.

Hate crimes and murders by vigilante groups start happening with such frequency that the media doesn’t bother to report them anymore.

Within a few years a little bit of every business activity in the country ends up in The Leader’s pocket. And The Leader uses that revenue to enrich himself, his inner circle, and those who are part of his military entourage, his private military.

That’s right: The Leader’s private military.

It’d be put together like what Ron DeSantis is organizing in Florida right now, a state-sanctioned militia that answers only to The Leader, in this case DeSantis. Trump tried the same in 2020, flying 700+ Customs and Border Protection and other federal officers into Portland where they hit the streets without identification on their uniforms to beat and kidnap people protesting George Floyd’s murder.

When the private militia is created at the federal level it’ll become a substantial national military force with hundreds of thousands of soldiers under The Leader’s direct command. Hitler’s was called the SS and answered only to The Leader himself. Mussolini and Franco had theirs, as Putin, Erdoğan, el-Sisi, bin Salman, and others do today.

Citing “national security,” The Leader’s private militia will have an undisclosed and therefore vast budget. Outside of times it’s called on to intimidate people or make a public display of power, it’ll largely operate in secret.

Its members won’t have to obey the law because, as agents of The Leader who’s above the law, they are, too. If they have to kill somebody, there will be no investigation unless it’s to cover up the crime. If they need to make somebody disappear, that person disappears. At first it’ll be done by stochastic terrorism: lone wolf actors not directly connected to The Leader but answering his general call to punish political evildoers.

Just ask Nancy Pelosi or Mike Pence.

The Leader’s oligarch buddies and their media machine, along with his well-indoctrinated followers, promote a law-and-order crime ideology that results in high levels of incarceration, heavily militarized police, and a disregard for the general rights of the average citizen, particularly racial and religious minorities.

As “future dystopian” as all this may sound, there are more governments in the world run this way today than there are democracies. It’s “normal.”

Once established it’s almost impossible to dislodge without a crisis like the death of The Leader or an actual revolution. Just ask any Russian. Or Spaniards who were alive in 1975.

Some of the governments around the world that are structured like this were democracies that turned fascist, like Russia, Turkey, and Hungary. But many have been this way for centuries, including the hereditary kingdoms in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

So, how do the democratic countries that make the transition to fascism allow that to happen? And what is life like in those countries, both during and after the time that it’s happened?

We can’t say we weren’t warned by our own people, our own politicians, the most senior members of our own institutional power structure.

In a speech that was hysterically criticized by Republicans and Fox “News“ pundits, President Obama in December of 2017 came right out and said it:

“You have to tend to this garden of democracy, otherwise things can fall apart fairly quickly. And we’ve seen societies where that happens.”

Yes, the former President of the United States invoked Nazi Germany six years ago while Donald Trump was President, adding:

“Now, presumably, there was a ballroom in Vienna in the late 1920s or ’30s that looked and seemed as if it ― filled with the music and art and literature and the science that was emerging ― would continue into perpetuity. 

“And then,” President Obama said, “60 million people died. And the entire world was plunged into chaos.”

The warnings have been there all along. I wrote of this in 2005, quoting Mayer and going off on Bush and the PATRIOT Act as the prequel to fascism.

Americans have been shouting about it lately, in venues like The New York Times and Madeline Albright’s book and from legislators like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

And now the President of the United States warns Americans that a fascist movement within our own nation is at our door, and will either be soundly defeated in the next election or will seize power and end our form of government:

“What we’re seeing now is [either] the beginning or the death knell of an extreme MAGA philosophy,” Biden told a group of Democratic donors. “It’s not just Trump, it’s the entire philosophy that underpins the — I’m going to say something, it’s like semi-fascism.”

His comment got only a passing mention in the news.

But, still, how do we know? Is there a sudden proclamation by The Leader that the nation is now “officially fascist”?

After World War II, a Chicago reporter named Milton Mayer struggled to understand how Hitler was able to flip one of the world’s most stable democracies into fascism.

An American Jew of German ancestry and a brilliant writer, Mayer went to Germany seven years after Hitler’s fall and befriended 10 “average Germans,” asking each how the Nazis rose to power in an otherwise civilized nation.

His book, They Thought They Were Free, is his story of that experience. Intertwined through it — first published in 1955 — are repeated overt and subtle warnings to future generations of Americans: to us, today.

A German professor who made it through the war by avoiding politics told Mayer:

“But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

“And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jew swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose.”

In the next election, many of us will no longer be able to know if our voices, our attempts to vote, will actually decide who leads our nation.

Many Americans will show up at the polls to discover they are no longer registered to vote. Many of our mail-in ballots will be “challenged” by Republican vote observers and we won’t learn about it until after the election is long over.

Five Republicans on the Supreme Court ruled in 2018 that you can be purged from the voting rolls on a whim. In the majority of US states Republicans can take over electoral precincts, install their people (as we just learned they are doing right now) and run them under whatever rules they want.

Already in some states when the GOP inflicts 10-hour lines to vote on people in Democratic districts, for example, and you go to jail if you bring them water. If you make a mistake on your voting registration or ballot, or help another person register to vote, in multiple Red states the governors can choose to send you to prison for five years or more.

Somehow, of the many people from both parties who are busted for this, it seems only the Democrats end up going to prison.

And yet everything seems “normal.” As Mayer’s professor friend told him, when the Leader finally seizes control of all the levers of power from political to economic to spiritual, everything changes but everything also stays the same:

“The world you live in — your nation, your people — is not the world you were in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays.

“But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed.

“Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God.”

We’re already quite a ways down this road, which is why both our media and our democracy have been rated by numerous international groups as being “at risk” or similar designations.

Voter suppression, gerrymandering, the proliferation of phony media selling rightwing propaganda as “news,” armed militias on our streets (and the GOP recruiting them for “election monitors”) are the visible tip of the proverbial iceberg.

“How is this to be avoided, among ordinary men, even highly educated ordinary men?” Mayer’s friend asked rhetorically.

And, without the benefit of a previous, recent, and well-remembered fascistic regime to refer to, Mayer had to candidly answer:

“Frankly, I do not know.”

That was 1954; this is 2023. We now know.

We know how the poisonous hate that animates fascism seeps into a society because we saw it ourselves during the 4 years of the Trump administration.

We’re watching it in Red states across the country as MAGA Republicans replace honorable Republicans like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.

We know how easily a government can be toppled and how close we came on January 6, 2021: if just five Republicans hadn’t refused to go along with Trump we’d be in this fascist dystopia today.

MAGA Republicans across the country are calling for a Franco-like government as you’re reading these words. They believe so long as they’re loyal to Leader and Party everything will be good for them and theirs, and, generally speaking, they’re right.

As President Biden said last year:

“We can’t take democracy for granted any longer. … Make no mistake. Democracy is on the ballot.”

The only way we can avoid repeating the experience of Spain, Germany, Hungary, Russia, and Chile (among others) is to overwhelmingly repudiate — defeat — Trump’s and the MAGA Republicans’ movement at the polls.

And the first step to that is to wake up everybody we know.

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Pass it on.

If you’ve seen Leopoldstadt, we’re arguably someplace between Act III and Act IV — with the power to give the play a happy ending.

And if you can afford to help, click here.