Author: A.T.

UNDECIDED?

These 2 minutes with Bill Maher pretty much say it all.

HEAR NO EVIL, SEE NO EVIL

Russia was a “hoax” so long as you don’t read Volume One of the 381-page Mueller report . . . or the equally thorough Volume Two detailing at least 10 instances of criminally indictable obstructions of justice Trump committed to keep Volume One from being even more damning.  (Take these 2 minutes to watch that).

To those with eyes and ears open, this is all old news.

Something NEW no Trump fan will allow himself to be exposed to is FROM RUSSIA WITH LEV. 

Trump, of course, doesn’t know Lev.  Or Igor.  Might have had a photo with them — he has photos with thousands of people!  But he “doesn’t know the gentlemen.”  

Ha!

Watch!

So fun — except for the fact that it really happened yet Trump could still be elected; and millions of his followers will only accept the results if he is.

BONUS: PROFITING FROM DJT

Why didn’t I think of this????

It’s basically too late now — but interesting, I think.

My old pal Terry writes:

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Here’s how I use options to capitalize on the huge difference between the market cap and the fundamental value of the enterprise.  You can’t sell DJT short because even if you can find a broker who will accept the order, you pay a huge monthly interest charge which goes to whoever loans stock to cover the short sale.

Normally, if you believe a stock is headed lower, you’d buy a put on the shares, but DJT is so universally recognized as trading well above its fundamental value that the puts are extremely expensive and pretty much not worth the risk.

For example, a two-week at-the-money put on DJT would cost $2.67 as I write this.  The stock would have to fall 11% in those two weeks before you started making a profit, but if it remained flat or moved any higher, you would lose 100%.  Not a bet that appeals to me.

Instead, I have been selling what are called vertical call credit spreads.  I have been selling these every month since DJT was about $40 and every trade has been profitable (about a 50% average gain on the maximum risk for a one-month time period).  I made only small investments, however, because it was with money that I could not afford to lose.  Even though the stock was ridiculously over-priced, you never knew when a MAGA millionaire or Russian oligarch might buy shares in hopes of getting an invite to Mar-A-Lago.

I believed that the risk-reward basis would change on September 19 or 26 when the six-month lock-up restriction would expire for insiders who received shares in DJT.  Two individuals who own about 10% each could then sell their shares (Donald publicly stated that he would not be selling his, a statement that caused them to soar by 20% for one day only).  These other insiders probably don’t like Donald that much because they both are suing him for something related to the issuance of their shares.  So I figured that they will unload their shares before the election when Donald may change his tune and start dumping his shares.

On September 10, with the stock trading about $18, I sold call options on DJT expiring on October 4 at the $18 strike as part of a vertical call credit spread, buying October 4 calls at the $23 strike.  These calls would all expire at least one week after the lock-up period had ended, giving the insiders ample time to unload some of their shares and presumably push the selling price down (or at least not cause it to move higher). I received $167 for each spread I sold.  A $500 maintenance fee was required (like a margin loan but no interest is charged). I just had to post $333 per contract to maintain the position. This meant that my maximum risk would be $333 per spread and that is how much I would lose if the stock rose to above $23 on October 4, a highly-unlikely event in my mind.  If the stock remained flat at $18 on October 4 or traded any lower, both call options (my long and short positions) would expire worthless and I would gain 50% on my maximum risk.  I figured the odds were strongly in my favor, and I committed considerably more than my earlier similar spreads.  In fact, I’ve subsequently sold similar spreads almost every day since then at several lower strike prices as the stock fell to below $14.  I’m finished for now, and have to wait out two weeks to cash in.  I am a little concerned that the stock must stay below $14 to make a gain on some of my spreads.  There is always the possibility that Elon Musk or Putin will buy a few hundred million shares to gain political favors. If they do that, I hope they will wait a couple of weeks to do it.

If I wanted to cash in on my September 10 spread sale, I could buy them back for $37 at today’s prices for a $130 gain on the $167 I collected per spread, but I am willing to wait out the two weeks to collect the full amount that will come my way if DJT stays below $18.

I know you have personally bought both puts and calls along the way, but I was not sure you knew all about the opportunities to be a bit more creative with option spreads.

PS — I am totally obsessed by Kamala’s arrival on the scene and am doing whatever I can, including personally contacting three Republican old Vermont friends now retired to Florida about voting for her in a state which really counts (yes, I think Florida is a swing state).  Two of them (and their wives) have agreed to vote blue for the first time ever.

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→ Note to readers: when you have a brilliant idea like this, please share it with me before it’s too late for me to get rich!

But first . . .

SUCCESS!

Their latest annual report: 53 schools serving more than 20,000 scholars, mostly from low-income families of color, selected by lottery.  First in New York State in math; middle schoolers acing exams typically taken by 10th and 11th graders; 172 points above the national SAT average — and more.

(To those who believe charter schools are a bad idea, draining resources from public schools, please see this longer post.)

And also . . .

FAILURE!

Or at least that’s what one would predict for North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.

Per Heather Cox Richardson:

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Republican North Carolina lieutenant governor Mark Robinson frequented porn sites, where between 2008 and 2012 he wrote that he enjoyed watching transgender pornography; referred to himself as a “black NAZI!”; called for reinstating human enslavement and wrote, “I would certainly buy a few”; called the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. a “f*cking commie bastard”; wrote that he preferred Adolf Hitler to former president Barack Obama; referred to Black, Jewish, Muslim, and gay people with slurs; [and] said he doesn’t care about abortions (“I don’t care. I just wanna see the sex tape!” he wrote). Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck of CNN, who broke the story, noted that “CNN is reporting only a small portion of Robinson’s comments on the website given their graphic nature.”

After the first story broke, Natalie Allison of Politico broke another: that Robinson was registered on the Ashley Madison website, which caters to married people seeking affairs.

Robinson is running for governor of North Carolina. He has attacked transgender rights, called for a six-week abortion ban without exceptions for rape or incest, mocked survivors of school shootings, and—after identifying a wide range of those he saw as enemies to America and to “conservatives”—told a church audience that “some folks need killing.”

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Robinson has Trump’s backing (60 seconds).

But even with that, I think Josh Stein will be the next governor of the great state of North Carolina — and that Kamala Harris may just win the state’s 16 Electoral College votes.

You know who also has Trump’s backing?  Laura Loomer.  Treat yourself to Jon Stewart’s take.

And now . . .

DJT

With the stock now down to $13.55 from its $79.38 March 26 high, bargain-hunters have to ask themselves: is a company with no meaningful and enormous losses worth $2.7 billion?  Should they invest in a company whose success rests with this man?  Will he bankrupt this company as he has bankrupted so many others?

Who’s buying here, even at $13.55?

Heather Cox Richardson goes on to show just how far DJT has taken the G.O.P.  from the mainstream and offers this stark assessment:

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When a political party has so thoroughly walled itself off from the majority, there are two options. One is to become full-on authoritarian and suppress the majority, often with violence. Such a plan is in Project 2025, which calls for a strong executive to take control of the military and the judicial system and to use that power to impose his will.

The other . . .

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We really need to win.  And by such a wide margin that even this Supreme Court wouldn’t dare throw it into the House of Representatives.

Pitch in!  Volunteer! 

LEV!

Treat yourself to this 2-minute trailer and you may cancel Friday’s dinner to stay home and watch From Russia With Lev at 9pm on MSNBC.

STENCH!

First He Went After Anita Hill. Now He’s Coming for Clarence Thomas.

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As a young conservative, David Brock smeared Hill, who accused the Supreme Court justice of sexual harassment. Now, in a new book, Brock is denouncing Thomas and the court’s rightward tilt — and contending with his own complicated past.

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Stench: The Making of the Thomas Court and the Unmaking of America.

A compelling weekend read or listen.

AND NOW, THE QUESTION

Harris endorsed by over 100 former Republican former national security officials.

Where are the former Democratic national security officials endorsing TRUMP?

Where, for that matter, is KAMALA’s niece writing a book subtitled, “the world’s most dangerous WOMAN?“

This is not normal, people.  Presidential nominees are not widely attacked — with patriotic urgency — from within their own party.  By their own former appointees.

Trump calls those of us who oppose him “radical Marxist communists.”

Seriously?

Dick Cheney?  Mike Pence?

Does Trump even know what a Marxist is?

I doubt it, but you can be sure his cult members don’t — they just know it’s bad, he’s good — and that’s enough.

The key plank in the Marxist platform is abolishing the right to private property.  Everything — like homes — should be communally owned.  A key plank of Kamala Harris’s platform are $25,000 grants* to help young families achieve homeownership.  See the difference?

Marxists want to do away with capitalism.  Harris’s Entrepreneurs & Innovators Policy Plan sets a goal of 25 million new business applications in her first term.  See the difference?

The whole thing is nuts — watch From Russia With Lev! — but it’s happening.  And Team Trump are deadly serious about making sure it does.  Putin, too.

To keep from losing our democracy we all need — urgently — to pitch in and volunteer.  And win by such a wide margin that even this shameless Supreme Court — read Stench — wouldn’t dare overturn the result.

Are Jewish Republicans willing to stand for Holocaust denial?

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Tucker Carlson called Cooper “maybe the best and most honest popular historian working in the United States today.” Cooper proceeded to explain that the Holocaust was not a deliberate campaign to exterminate Jews . . .

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And J.D. Vance was okay with that.

Meanwhile . . .

Trump’s Bedminster club hosted an alleged Nazi sympathizer who stormed the Capitol.

You’ve heard from Taylor Swift.  Billie Eilish and FINNEAS now step up.

From Billie Eilish to Dick Cheney.  Ours is a big tent.  Come on in!

THREE OF THE MANY ADS YOU’VE PAID FOR . . .

. . . but not seen unless you live in a swing state:

Control (60 seconds).

Blood clot (60 seconds).

Economic Plans (15 seconds).

“You’re rich as hell — we’re gonna give you tax cuts” (not an ad, but 12 seconds worth watching).

BONUS

Pete Buttigieg on FOX four years ago.

CORRECTION

Bob:  “Yesterday you linked to an October 2023 article entitled ‘Great News About American Wealth.’  You said it was ‘nearly a year old but’ but suggested things have ‘likely only gotten better in the meantime.’  While the article is about a year old, the data is from 2022, so it is closer to two years old. And, yes, the stock market has soared in that time, adding to people’s 401(k)s, etc.  But it is my understanding that household savings have decreased significantly over those two years. Equally concerning, the credit card delinquency rate has hit a nearly 12-year high.  The article you linked to said ‘debt is ‘much less of a problem.’  With credit card delinquencies so high, I’d say that’s misleading at best.”

ARE WE REALLY TALKING ABOUT GEESE?

Watch J.D. Vance make his case, then be fact-checked.

LET’S TALK, INSTEAD, ABOUT THE ECONOMY

Trump says it’s terrible.

He hopes to fix it for everyday Americans by cutting taxes on the rich . . . by raising the prices of everything they, and American manufacturers, import . . . by pulling millions of needed workers off the job and putting them into camps awaiting deportation . . . by repealing Obamacare . . . by rooting out the “vermin” among us . . . by forcing families to have unwanted children they can’t afford . . . and by setting a general tone of vengeance and retribution.  Not to mention his team’s Project 2025 which he claims to know nothing about, just as knew nothing about Stormy Daniels or the checks he himself signed to pay her off.

Things are terrible if you bought Trump Media at its $79.38 high six months ago and now see it, as Trump sees his shares, at $17.97.

But employment remains robust, wages are rising faster than prices, interest rates have begun falling, we’ve begin finally revitalizing the nation’s infrastructure, and the stock market, albeit not DJT, is at an all-time high.

For all the difficulties average Americans face — which Kamala Harris and Tim Walz see and are working to assuage — our economy is pretty much the envy of the world.

What’s more, there is Great News About American Wealth.

It’s nearly a year old, but has likely only gotten better in the meantime:

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Americans’ wealth is way up since before the pandemic.

The increase is very even across the board, with people at the bottom of the distribution gaining proportionally more than people at the top.

Inequality is down, including racial inequality, educational inequality, urban-rural inequality, overall wealth inequality.

Debt is much less of a problem.

There’s even some surprising good news about income as well as wealth.

In other words, a rising tide is lifting all boats. I know it can be tough to believe that, with all the doom and gloom you see in the media, but the numbers speak for themselves. And just so you know, all the numbers I give in this post are adjusted for inflation, so don’t worry about that.

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Here’s Why Trump Was Forced to Say That He Only Has ‘Concepts of a Plan’

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Executive summary:  It’s because in the 9 years he’s been by saying he would provide “everyone” better health care at a “tiny fraction of the cost,” he was just lying.  Has no plan. He never did.

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Dare we hope this makes his 2016 and 2020 voters angry?

As George W. Bush might have said, “Fool me twice, shame on you; fool me three times . . . I’m done.”

Though this two-time Trump voter offers a different reason:

Harris Can Win on the Economy, but She Needs a Stronger Message

If only she could get him to debate again!

This time, I’d love to see her turn to him with an incredulous smile and say:

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Now wait. You were president for four years and you actually think that foreign governments pay the tariffs we levy?  You actually think that?  No one told you that it’s the importers who pay, not the exporters?  That it’s our American companies that pay your tariffs, not foreign governments?  And that they then pass that extra cost on to American consumers? That’s why your tariff plan is like a giant sales tax.  It’s scary to me you don’t know something as basic as that. You may be the only Wharton graduate who doesn’t.  But now you do.

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Wouldn’t that be fun?

What would he say in return?  That he did know it?  That she’s wrong?  Every fact-checker in the world, every newspaper editor, every economist, and every business, big or small, that ever imported something subject to tariffs would say she’s right.

To pile on, click here.  Or here, to volunteer.

We have a ton of work to do but have a real shot at holding the White House and Senate and taking back the House.

All we need is for young people to engage.  They have more at stake than anyone; and I think they see in Kamala Harris the kind of energy and optimism that will get them to join Taylor Swift in showing up.*

That would give us the trifecta we need to pass things most Americans want, like codifying Roe, sensible gun-safety measures, voter-protection legislation, $35 insulin even if you’re under 65, the bipartisan immigration solution Trump killed, funding for the IRS to collect taxes owed by billionaires and corporations, hiking the $7.25 federal minimum wage . . . maybe even an enforceable code of ethics for the Supreme Court (although this Court would presumably find that unconstitutional).

Trump said last night the economy is horrible.  In fact, of course, it is the envy of the world.

(He may think it’s horrible because his stock is down from $79 to $16; but the market as a whole is at record highs.)

We’re suffering inflation, he said, “like our country’s never seen.”

Really?

It was 7% in Biden’s first year, in the throes of COVID supply chain disruption, and has fallen ever since . . .

Inflation Extends Cooling Streak to Hit 2.5% in August

US inflation may soon undershoot Fed’s 2% target.

The year Trump was born, it was 18%. 

Was he asleep in 1973 (8.7%), 1974 (12.3%), 1978 (9%), 1979 (13.3%), 1980 (12.5%) and 1981 (8.9%)?

No one disputes that pre-COVID prices were lower.  But Vice President Harris has her eye very much on that ball, whereas the 20% tariffs Trump proposes would not be paid by foreign governments — that’s not how tariffs work! — they would be paid by the American companies that import foreign goods . . . and then largely passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices.

The Vice President should have done a better job of explaining that this is what she meant by a “sales tax.”  And that tariffs are literally, unquestionably, incontrovertibly, paid by the importers, not the exporters.  But she is so right: tariffs on imported goods are, in effect, sales taxes on American consumers.

There’s much more to be said about last night.

Happily, everyone is saying it.

Please join me in piling on.  With cash, if you can (believe it or not, the campaign actually needs more and has effective ways to spend it), or with effort or with both.

JOYFUL BONUS

Trumpers CAN be reached . . . though I doubt many are as open-minded as this one (90 seconds).  Watch!

*Know a Gen-Z-er who wants to win two tickets and travel expenses to a Taylor Swift concert?  Or a Shakira concert?  Or P!nk?  Send them this link. 

There are way, way, WAY more important issues at stake in this election — see, for example, this one . . .

. . . but with immigration now Trump’s liability — because he killed the bi-partisan legislation that would finally have fixed the border crisis . . .

. . . and with inflation now barely 1% above the Fed’s target . . .

. . . Republicans are sure to stoke fear of men in girls’ dressing rooms (well, except for Trump, for whom it’s okay), and all the other scary things about transgenderism.

But how scary should these things really be?

I’d bet not one American in a thousand has been harmed in even the slightest way by a trans person.  Certainly not physically.  (Not only were you not a female Olympic boxer beaten by this trans gold medalist — she turned out not to be trans at all!)

Nor even psychologically, by a glance in a public restroom (or whatever else Republicans want you to fear).

The problem — as it was with gay and lesbian Americans until relatively recently — is that few people know trans people.

Now that most Americans do know LGBT friends, neighbors, co-workers or family members — or at least “know” Anderson Cooper, Ellen DeGeneres, Tim Cook, and Brandi Carlile — they find us a lot less scary.

The same will gradually prove true of the trans community.

A great start will be Netflix’s Will & Harper, streaming worldwide September 27.  Watch the trailer and I think you’ll see what I mean. Whatever your politics, I think it will touch you.

If you have a few minutes more, “meet” Stephanie Fritsch of Wiconisco (pop.784) and a few other trans Pennsylvanians.

All that said, whatever your feelings on this issue, don’t let Trump and Putin fool you into thinking it has anything near the importance to you and your kids as the issue of whether we lose our democracy to a man bent on “vengeance” and “retribution,” whom Vladimir Putin desperately hopes will win.

*I’m sorry; this is entirely off topic.  But those of us who know Tom Lehrer’s iconic “Vatican Rag” can’t hear the word “trans” without immediately thinking, Two, four, six, eight — time to transubstantiate!   You’re welcome.

Dick Cheney joins his daughter in endorsing Kamala:

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In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.  He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.

As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

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And in other big news . . .

PRKR

Today, the appeals court finally ruled, granting PRKR everything it could have hoped.

The stock more than doubled on 8.2 million shares.

Here’s the short form.

(And here’s the 60-page ruling.)

The judicial process takes forever, but this ruling strengthens PRKR’s hand with Qualcomm — should they want to settle for a fraction of what a jury might award — and with a couple of other large companies against whom PRKR also has claims.

So — in for a penny, in for a pound — I’m not tempted to sell here.  More thoughts to come.

GOOD INTENTIONS GONE AWRY

When well-intentioned religious parents drive their home-schooled kids to suicide.

WEEKEND BONUS: THE PIG-DOG CONUNDRUM

John Heilemann interviews Nick Kristof on that and much more.