There WAS No Cherry Tree July 7, 2025 But first . . . ZOHRAN MAMDANI If you happen to be a New York City voter, I think he deserves your consideration.* > The anti-Semitism charge is bogus: witness this quick video from a young Israeli American. > His inexperience and the impracticality of some of his proposals are real, but so are his talent, vision, energy and decency: see his appearance on Meet The Press. Andrew Yang’s analysis, I think, is spot on: If elected, Mamdani will need to learn fast, adapt, and make really smart appointments. And even then it will be a hugely tough slog. This is New York City after all. The mayoralty is never easy, even when there’s a normal president (like all those of my lifetime until now) who believes in common decency and the rule of law. Mamdani says — and seems truly to mean — everyone is welcome in New York City. (By contrast, Idaho bans ‘Everyone Is Welcome Here’ Classroom Signs.) Given the unfortunate alternatives, and the badly needed excitement he’s generated among disaffected young people and almost everyone who meets him, I think he’s the right choice. *The one important edit I would have made – she uses the term genocide, which is wrong. War crimes, arguably, which is bad enough — but genocide is the intentional extermination of a whole people (just ask the ghosts of 6 million Jews or 500,000 Rwandan Tutsis), which Israel does not now nor ever has intended. All Hamas would have to do to end the nightmare is surrender — as Germany and Japan once did. And all they would have had to do to avoid a single death was to accept Israel’s voluntary 2005 withdrawal from Gaza and build a thriving, peaceful society instead of an underground military complex bent on Israel’s eradication. YOUR MONEY Many — most? — U.S. stocks are overpriced. One newsletter I read (without upgrading to the paid edition as of yet) is Slow Money by a devotee of Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett’s mentor). Among much else in this latest letter is the discrepancy between ADP’s gloomy employment data and Trump’s: For example, on Wednesday, payroll giant ADP announced that the private sector had lost 33,000 miles in June. A day later, however, the Labor Department reported that 147,000 new jobs were added that month, more than half of these in the private sector. Is the economy really solid, then? Is the Trump Golden Age upon us? Are we not, as has been asserted here so often, trapped in a stagflationary vortex in which every penny of economic growth is borrowed—and then some? Well, the answers now depend on if you trust the government or the private sector. Of course I’d bet on the latter, because doing so would (finally) put me in the company of JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Dimon, who last month told analysts he doesn’t trust the official numbers . . . If you come to my site for occasional crazy speculations, consider James Scurlock’s for the opposite. THAT CHERRY TREE Invariably, after I post something, I have afterthoughts I wish I had included or things I had said more clearly. The conclusion I now wish I had included yesterday (“The Most Popular Bill Ever Signed In The History Of Our Country”) would have read something like this: The fever will surely break. People will surely come to see that constant lying and disregard for the law works in North Korea and Russia (except for those who live there) and worked fine in 1930’s Italy and Germany (until it didn’t). But constant lying and disregard for the law are not what we aspire to here. Ever since biographer Mason Weems invented the myth of George Washington and the cherry tree, Americans have been taught that honesty and decency and responsibility are American virtues. Humility, I would argue, is another. One of the dozens of differences between Trump and George Washington is that where Trump invents his own self-aggrandizing myths — daily — George Washington never invented even that famous one. It was added to the fifth edition The Life of Washington in 1806, seven years after his death. Trump lied endlessly — and still lies — that Biden’s victory in 2020 was rigged. Isn’t it odd, I suggested yesterday, that when Democrats were IN power, they were unable to rig anything and twice handed the presidency to Trump . . . . . . but when they were OUT of power, they somehow made it appear Biden won by 7 million votes when “everybody knows” Trump won by a landslide? Yes, Trump’s own chief of election integrity deemed it “the most secure election in American history,” yet he gulled many of his followers into shouting “STOP THE STEAL!” at every occasion, not least when they went to hang Mike Pence, thinking they were engaged in righting a grievous wrong when in fact they were committing one. So Peter Stolz suggests we chant REPEAL THE STEAL non-stop between now and the mid-terms, referring to his Big Ugly Bill that will rob the hungry of food, deny the sick health care, and add trillions to the National Debt — all in order to help billionaires and millionaires. They presumably won’t repeal it. And have designed it so that much of the steal only begins to hit after the mid-terms . . . . . . but REPEAL THE STEAL, Peter argues, should be part of a constant drumbeat. Let me know whether you agree.
“The Most Popular Bill Ever Signed In The History Of Our Country” July 6, 2025July 6, 2025 That’s what he called it Friday, “adding for emphasis,” as CNN reports, “this is the single most popular bill ever signed.” He may as well have added, “anywhere in the world at any time in history.” He obviously knows he’s lying — and all his MAGA folks know it, too, even if they don’t fully realize just how unpopular the bill is — and they brush that aside. Yes, sure (I mean, duh!), the President of the United States is a congenital liar and pathological narcissist. So what? Like the membership he shares with Abdullar the Butcher, with Earthquake, and with George “The Animal” Steele in the fake wrestling Hall of Fame, it’s all just a show. It’s entertaining! (Well, maybe not to those who’ve already died with the wood-choppering of USAID . . . or to the millions who will lose their health insurance and see their rural hospitals disappear. But who really cares about them?) Trump had the largest inaugural crowd in the history of the country! He won the popular vote in 2016 (which he lost by 3 million) by a landslide! And by a landslide again (though he lost by 7 million) in 2020! (Isn’t it odd that when Democrats held power, they chose not to rig the elections of 2016 and 2024 and, instead, handed the presidency to Trump; but that when Trump held power, Democrats were somehow able to deny him the re-election that “everyone knows” he won by a landslide?) Who cares about honesty or integrity anymore? Or ethics or due process or the rule of law or the separation of powers — or kindness or competence? Certainly not the man whom many believe God sent to save America. (See: The Gospel Of Trump: “Trump is no longer merely supported by religious voices. He is becoming the religion.”) Who cares about adding trillions to the National Debt to enrich billionaires? Certainly not the Republican Party. (Many billionaires are wonderful — some are my friends — but they don’t need more money.) The bill is horrible. Even most of those cowed into voting for it know that. In the words of Trump’s biggest donor: “It is insane.” (See How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again.) BONUS Trump Kicks Off Celebration of America by Declaring His Hatred for Democrats
Unbelievably Bad — Literally July 4, 2025July 4, 2025 I’ve been listening to Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Unfinished Love Story about the Kennedy and Johnson years. The dignity. The decency. The higher purpose. The seriousness of purpose. The moral clarity*. And now Trump. It is to weep. Yes, sure, it’s funny to read how Trump cheated at golf; funny to hear Charlie Sheen’s cufflink story. He’s a rogue! The king of bankruptcy! (Not so funny if you’re the contractor who hasn’t been paid.) He sells steaks and Bibles and grabs women by the pussy — a man’s man with a bone spur inducted into the fake wrestling Hall of Fame. A felon, a showman — fun! — in ways Truman, Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden — the other presidents of my lifetime — never were. And I’m all for fun. But as leader of “the free world”? By which is meant the world that rejects autocrats rather than exchange love letters with them . . . rejects autocrats rather than aspire to their unchecked power . . . rejects autocrats rather than trust them over America’s own intelligence agencies . . . rejects autocrats rather than take their side over an invaded nation struggling to remain free. The dreadful bill Trump signs today is the worst possible way to celebrate July 4th. Steve Benen writes: “Many Americans may be surprised by just how horrible the Republicans’ megabill is.” But what really stands out in his piece is that — as with much else Trump has done — when people are told the facts, many simply refuse to believe they could be true. What Trump and his cowed Congress have done is so unbelievably bad, people literally don’t believe it. Worth the read. The bottom line, it seems to me, is that you and I have a once-in-a-lifetime responsibility — to our Founders who fought for Independence, to our forefathers who fought the Nazis and the communists, to the rest of the free world that looks to us for leadership and partnership, and to generations to come — to do all we can peacefully to resist as Fascism in the USA Enters the Fifth & Final Phase. Not just to watch — to resist. Enjoy the burgers and watermelon. Roast marshmallows. But tomorrow make a plan (if you haven’t already, as many of you have) to do more than you ordinarily would. For starters: resolve to be as annoying (if that’s possible) as me. *Vietnam being the glaring exception. But Johnson agonized over whether to surrender or escalate in ways one imagines our current president has never agonized over anything.
Repeal The Steal July 2, 2025 Jesus would have voted NO (60 seconds). “We Christians are called to do more than charity,” preaches James Talarico. “We are called to challenge the systems that make charity necessary.” Senator Chris Murphy: Within minutes of the bill passing, Lisa Murkowski told reporters, “My hope is that the House is gonna look at this and recognize that we’re not there yet.” All reporting indicates that she was the final holdout that Republicans had to flip to yes, and now, she is saying that she doesn’t want this version of the bill to become law. That’s bullshit. Her vote could’ve stopped this. They will all live forever with the horror of this bill. (“I guess they convinced Lisa Murkowski that this bill is good for the country by offering to exempt her state from what’s in it.” — Michael B., ‘ashamed former Alaskan’) In case you don’t know how bad it is . . . An Ignominious Bill Passed By an Inglorious Body The legislation Senate Republicans passed on Tuesday is probably going to kill a lot of people. . . . And death doesn’t even capture the full impact of the bill, which thanks to Tuesday’s vote seems likely to become law. . . . In trying so hard to shield the bill’s true nature from the public, Republican leaders may have also succeeded in hiding parts from their own members, who might not appreciate just how much some features of the bill undercut supposedly cherished MAGA goals like lowering the cost of living and making U.S. industry more competitive. And that’s to say nothing about the disproportionate effects some elements of the bill will have on their own constituents. . . . But killing a lot of low-income people is not an overriding MAGA concern. Witness their shutting down USAID (and the 80 years’ accumulated soft power it earned us across the world). Bush, Obama — and singer Bono — fault Trump’s gutting of USAID on agency’s last day. WASHINGTON — Former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush delivered rare open criticism of the Trump administration — and singer Bono recited a poem — in an emotional video farewell Monday with staffers of the U.S. Agency for International Development. Obama called the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID “a colossal mistake.” . . . He credited USAID with not only saving lives, but being a main factor in global economic growth that has turned some aid-receiving countries into U.S. markets and trade partners. . . . One of you wrote yesterday to suggest we should all be out protesting the Republicans’ awful bill with STOP THE STEAL signs — “stealing” trillions from poor and middle-class folks and giving it to the rich. Reverse-Robin Hood on steroids. When I said I wished he’d come up with that sooner, in time for us to maybe do it, he pivoted to REPEAL THE STEAL. If the bill does get signed into law before we can stop the steal, that should be an outcry that carries all the way through to November 3, 2026: REPEAL THE STEAL. (Thanks, Peter.)
Our Record-High Stock Market June 30, 2025 Yesterday’s link to The Economist rightly suggested — at least indirectly — that most U.S. stocks are overvalued: No one can predict if or when investors will lose patience, forcing interest rates much higher. Yet there must be a limit to the debt binge. Which prompted one of you to send me the conclusion of “Adam Smith’s” obituary: “We are at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air,” he wrote [in 1968] of a high-flying stock market in “The Money Game.” “We know at some moment the black horsemen will come shattering through the terrace doors wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors,” he continued. “Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid no one wants to leave while there is still time. So everybody keeps asking — what time is it? But none of the clocks have hands.” Mallory McMorrow on Trump’s horrible ugly bill: “Ninety percent of Americans will lose money over the next ten years in order to give the wealthiest ten percent more money.” Republican Tom Tillis would rather give up his Senate seat than vote for the damn thing. Two-thirds of Americans are against it — and almost all the rest don’t realize what’s in it. Join Indivisible! Support the opposition!
Stuffing The Goose June 30, 2025 From The Economist: Last year America ran a budget deficit of 7% of GDP. It may soon be even bigger. . . . Jean-Baptiste Colbert, a bureaucrat under Louis XIV, remarked that the essence of tax policy involved “plucking as many feathers from the goose with the least hissing”. Today’s governments do not pluck the goose. Like producers of foie gras, they stuff it. . . . [A] government can simultaneously borrow money and become less indebted, if the economy grows faster than debt accumulates. What is happening today, however, is unprecedented. . . . A demographic crunch and free-spending fiscal policies are . . . about to interact in unpleasant ways. No one can predict if or when investors will lose patience, forcing interest rates much higher. Yet there must be a limit to the debt binge. As any lover of foie gras knows, overfeeding even the greediest goose can cause its liver to explode. Trump’s big ugly bill is horrible in so many ways — why are we doing this to ourselves? Michael M.: “Yesterday you said we should call Trump’s executive orders ‘decrees.’ I have a better word: ‘edict.’ It has more bite — perhaps because it includes the first four letters of ‘dictator.'” BONUS We know Trump wants to have the final word on what kids and their parents and doctors can decide about their health care; but I think it’s worth hearing what the kids themselves think, young though they are: Five Trans Youth Speak Out as SCOTUS Upholds Health Care Ban.
Yes! (Plus A Bonus) June 29, 2025 The photo is thrilling. Facing a year in prison for the organizers, and $500+ fines for every participant — who knew their faces would be photographed — 100,000 people showed up for Budapest pride — including the Mayor. — The New York Times It was about way more than LGBT rights. Peaceful protest against right-wing autocratic governments can work. (NPR’s story adds additional detail.) TAKING POLITICS OUT OF THE MILITARY? Hegseth Says U.S.N.S. Harvey Milk to Be Renamed After Oscar V. Peterson So Harvey Milk is out, but Robert E. Lee — who fought against the United States for the cause of slavery — is in. No political ramifications to that? The administration is saying the military must not honor heroes who died in the cause of equality; but must restore honor to seven generals who fought to keep black Americans in chains. That will help make America great again. Clarence Thomas is doubtless all in. LET’S STOP CALLING THEM “EXECUTIVE ORDERS” AND START CALLING THEM “DECREES” It just seems more in tune with the times. The Republican House and Senate are yet to push back on a single one. BONUS A Canadian tells it like it is. Share widely if you agree.
How Does THAT Make You Feel . . . June 27, 2025 . . . ABOUT YOUR SHRINK? Millions more Americans are seeking mental health therapy. I read this and wondered, where are all the new therapists gonna come from? And then I read this, from Shelley Palmer‘s always-fascinating blog: Earkick is an AI-powered mental health app that offers real-time support and self-care tools. It boasts a 4.8/5 rating on the App Store, with users praising its effectiveness in managing anxiety and stress. The app provides daily journaling, mood tracking, and personalized feedback. While it doesn’t claim to replace professional therapy, it serves as a valuable tool for those seeking immediate support. Meanwhile . . . HOW DOES THIS MAKE YOU FEEL ABOUT YOUR GENDER? Everyone is reading Andrew Sullivan’s How the Gay Rights Movement Radicalized, and Lost Its Way. It is controversial and, to my mind, very worth considering. And comes just as I was corresponding with a recent Rhodes Scholar who runs an LGBT nonprofit. I had urged him and his team not to specify their pronouns, except where guidance was needed . . . linking him to my recent screed, Enough With The Pronouns! He replied: From our point of view, given that we work with Gen-Z LGBTQIA+ community members who generally support pronoun use, we think it is strategic for us to continue stating pronouns in OutVote-related communication. But we do understand your argument and think this is an important conversation to keep having! See: How Gen Z Changed Its Views On Gender | TIME 2023 To which I replied: Thank you for the TIME link – not new, but new to me. Wow. I guess I should amend my screed to suggest pronouns not be +indiscriminately+ used. I.e., it makes sense to use them in addressing a Gen Z audience, especially a queer one. But – until the world changes some more – candidates (and the rest of us) should generally not use them unless the gain they expect from young voters will outweigh the loss they can expect from everyone else. Does THAT make sense? He said it did. And so I have.
Randi, David, Ken, and HYMC June 26, 2025June 26, 2025 CORRECTION: Next Monday’s Virtual Conversation with Heather Cox Richardson and DNC Chair Ken Martin is not free. It’s a $25 ask. Today’s 3pm Indivisible planning call is free — and will be attended by thousands of us. Union leaders’ exit from DNC exposes ‘mind-boggling’ tensions inside Democratic party. If you read the whole story, you might conclude that headline is unhelpful sensationalism. (I love and support the Guardian, but still.) Let me add my own two cents. I know union leader Randi Weingarten. Rather than craft a practical solution to COVID once it became clear that children and healthy adults under 50 or 60 were not at great risk — providing on-line schooling for children living with at-risk relatives taught from home by at-risk teachers — Randi pushed to just shut it all down. This caused enormous long-term harm to children and enormous economic damage to their families. I believe she failed to see the big picture. In today’s situation, she certainly does see the big picture — that we have to win! — but rather than remain on the DNC and help mobilize her union members to do all the things she wants the DNC to inspire people to do, she made it about her. Like other wonderfully idealistic people — Ralph Nader comes to mind* — she put ego ahead of what really matters. David Hogg‘s departure as a DNC Vice Chair is more complicated and could certainly have gone more smoothly, yet I’m a fan. He proposes to raise $20 million to unseat Democrats — not, in my view, an appropriate role for a DNC officer — but to do it only in deeply blue districts not at risk of flipping red . . . and to primary only Democrats who don’t seem to him and his team to have the fire in the belly required to meet this moment. My calculus is: worst case, Leaders We Deserve will be wasting 20 million Democratic dollars, if the candidates he backs don’t wind up strengthening the Party. Over two years, in the scheme of things — as horrifying as this is — $20 million isn’t all that much. Best case, his efforts will electrify a generation of young people who’ve given up on politics and feel unrepresented. That could be worth a lot more than $20 million. So, I’m a fan — as I am of DNC Chair Ken Martin. Ken is terrific. And a winner. And deserves our support. Tune in Monday to hear him in conversation with the amazing Heather Cox Richardson. *Had Ralph, days before the 2000 election, urged his swing-state supporters to vote for Gore — since there was obviously no chance he would win — Gore would have won by an even wider** margin, there would have been no war in Iraq, no right-wing Supreme Court, no Trump, no inaction on the climate crisis, far less inequality . . . the list goes on and on. All because Ralph refused all his friends’ entreaties to put country over ego. **Bush allegedly won Florida by 537 votes. Had the “over-votes” been counted — where voters punched the Gore chad but, to be doubly sure, wrote in “Gore” — he would have won by about 45,000. HYMC In order to raise more working capital, HYMC recently sold $40 million of stock and warrants. Including its $128 million in debt (coming due in 2027), the company is currently valued at $300 million, give or take (depending on how you account for the warrants). I asked Copilot (Microsoft’s AI): What are Hycroft Mining’s proven and probable gold and silver reserves worth? Copilot shot back: As of the most recent estimates, Hycroft Mining’s proven and probable reserves include approximately 12 million ounces of gold and 481 million ounces of silver. To estimate their potential worth, we can use current market prices: Gold: ~$2,300 per ounce Silver: ~$29 per ounce Rough Valuation: Gold: 12,000,000 oz × $2,300 = $27.6 billion Silver: 481,000,000 oz × $29 = $13.95 billion Total estimated gross metal value: ~$41.55 billion Of course, that’s a theoretical maximum. Actual economic value would be significantly lower after accounting for: Extraction and processing costs Recovery rates (not all metal is recoverable) Royalties, taxes, and capital expenditures Time value of money over the life of the mine Still, it gives a sense of the scale. It does indeed. Suggested here at $2.20 a couple of years ago (adjusted for its reverse split) and now around $3.20, I’m gambling — with money I can truly afford to lose — that: (1) the price of gold and silver may rise further, and/or (2) yet more gold and silver may be found to lie under HYMC’s 64,000 acres, and/or (3) someone may one day come along and acquire HYMC for (say) 5% of the value its reserves, which would give us a modest homerun. Alternatively, gold and silver prices could fall, the estimated reserves could prove over-estimated (or too expensive to mine economically), or the company could run out of cash, leaving us with nothing but dashed dreams and bitter recriminations. Speaking of which . . . BOREF – Even if I could find a broker that trades it, I wouldn’t sell (and to whom?!). But as the years turn into decades and the decades pile up, I’m beginning to think air travel may be superseded by teleportation before we ever see a dime. SQNS – A big disappointment, they seem now to be trying a Hail Mary speculation on Bitcoin. I suppose that if Trump so craters the dollar that Bitcoin replaces it as the world’s reserve currency, SQNS could yet pay off; but I hope not. PRKR – I haven’t sold a share. I still have this naive faith that justice will prevail. ANIX, CNF, RNGE, UNIT, VERU, OPRT — high hopes for all. One of the few names I’ve suggested that’s not a swing-for-the-fences speculation is CHRB. This odd little “senior note” has been paying us its outsized $2.125 annual dividend even as it’s climbed from the $13.50 we paid toward the promised August 31, 2026 $25 pay-off. Not a home run, but a solid hit. BONUS Trump’s CFPB rollback will cost Americans $18 billion a year, consumer groups say.
Six Links For Your Consideration June 25, 2025June 25, 2025 1. A Virtual Conversation with Heather Cox Richardson and DNC Chair Ken Martin — next Monday at 3pm Eastern, 12pm Pacific. If you’re not happy with total MAGA control of the government, blow $25 and sign up for the call! 2. A Deeper Look (Literally): What Trump’s “Big Strike” Did and Did Not Achieve. 3. It “likely only set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by months.” Here’s hoping Trump’s efforts to bring peace to the Middle East succeed. 4. Should Iran instead foolishly decide to activate sleeper cells it claims it has positioned here, never fear: an eager 22-year-old oversees the government’s main hub for terrorism prevention. 5. Senator Alex Padilla addresses his colleagues . . . 6. . . . including “knee-jerk moderate” Lisa Murkowski. Might she caucus with the Democrats? VERU vs TSLA Suggested here at 52 cents three months ago, VERU remains, at 66 cents, an interesting speculation. My friend who suggested it notes the large short interest in the stock — a bad thing if the shorts are right and it goes bust; a great thing if they at some point decide to cover their short positions to avoid ruin. What has my friend excited is that (he writes): Two of the three drugs competing with VERU’s Enobosarm reported results recently that dramatically underperformed. VERU’s 3 mg dosage (taken in pill form) reduced loss of muscle mass by 97.2% . . . while Scholar Rock’s intravenously administered drug and Regeneron’s injected drug reduced muscle mass loss by only 50.0% and 51.3%, respectively!!! Neither of these two competing drugs improved total weight loss significantly, either, as compared to Enobosarm!!! So, as against two of the three competitors, he reports, our drug is way more effective — and taken in pill form. As for the third, he writes: Lilly’s drug (IV induced) (data expected 11/2026) that they acquired from Versanis for $2 BILLION is in my opinion the only drug still in the running to compete with Enobosarm. If VERU could be worth the same $2 BILLION, then, with 147 million shares outstanding ($2 BILLION/147 million = $13.60) VERU share price target might reasonably be $5 or $10 or $15 — no? A 10X or 20X. Highly speculative, but — I would argue – not as nuts as TSLA. (See: Tesla Stock Valuation Looks Insane.) Could TSLA, currently valued at over $1 trillion, reasonably be imagined to jump 10- or 20-fold in the next two or three years, to $10 trillion or $20 trillion? I don’t see it. Might its market cap fall to just (say) five times that of Ford and GM combined? That I could imagine — and would cut its share price in half. And what if Tesla were one day worth only twice Ford and GM combined? Stranger things have probably happened.