Stocks And Facts March 6, 2025 If you care more about democracy than money, by all means skip ahead. Either way, don’t miss Claire’s investment update at the end. STOCKS CMRX, first suggested here in 2022 at $1.74, is being acquired at $8.55. As posted recently, I sold half at $4.83. Yesterday, at $8.40, I sold the rest. (Whoever bought it is welcome to the extra 15 cents.) VERU has a drug in development that it believes everyone taking the new miracle weight-loss drugs will consider taking as well. Early indications are that with their drug, the weight loss patients experience is 99% fat and only 1% muscle — versus 69%/31%. Most people would much rather lose fat than muscle. This one is highly speculative — with no revenues and big expenses, they could, for one thing, run out of cash. But it comes recommended from the same wonderful reader who suggested CMRX, and who thinks VERU has the potential to be a 10X or 20X winner, so I bought a bunch yesterday at 52 cents a share. Only with money I could truly afford to lose. PRKR keeps sliding, down to 65 cents last night from its recent $1.26 high. But you know what else keeps happening? Time keeps passing. Which means we grow ever closer to the hoped for trials in its numerous lawsuits. In the meantime, there was this press release yesterday. It seems encouraging. Ultimately what’s at stake is whether patents mean anything and small inventors still have a shot in America. I think they do, and that a jury might agree (as one did to the tune of $173 million 12 years ago). Only with . . . OPRT has given up some of its gains as well, but my same thinking applies: Time will pass. If a year from now they really do report earnings in the range of $1.10 to $1.30 a share, as projected, I would expect the company to be awarded a multiple of 12X or more, so a double from here. To me, the reward outweighs the risk . . . though only with . . . And since you’re interested in money, here is Warren Buffett’s annual letter from a couple of weeks ago. The foregoing speculations notwithstanding, he drives home the point that the market as a whole is hardly a bargain here. FACTS The President told us Tuesday night Joe Biden handed him a horrible economy and stratospheric inflation. In point of actual fact, President Biden handed him inflation under 3%, and falling; and an economy that both the Economist and the Wall Street Journal called “the envy of the world.” Trump said he was the best president since George Washington; Biden, the worst. We all know that little he says is true. Even Republican senators privately know that. But the MAGA base eat it up. They know Ukraine started the war against Russia (by being invaded?); that the January 6 cop-beaters were heroes, unjustly imprisoned; that contracting measles builds valuable immunity; that John McCain was no hero; that Trump will absolutely release his tax returns as soon as the audit is completed. Here, with much less snark (I can’t help myself — his breathtaking dishonesty and narcissism scream for snark), is NPR’s Fact Check of the Joint Address. COMBINING STOCK PICKING AND FACT CHECKING Claire Margaret Brown — former Air Force doctor and exceptional trans woman whose Aristides Capital has compounded my IRA at 15.83% since 2008 (growing each $1 into $11.30) — has given me permission to share excerpts from her latest monthly investor letter: . . . [T]he elimination of USAID Global Health funding will, in the very short run, save $18 per American per year and will result in the deaths of tens of millions of people worldwide. I don’t know if it matters to the financial markets or not. I do know it is, without a doubt, the darkest moment for the American government in my adult life. In the long run, it’s also incredibly stupid. In a global economy, disease does not stop at borders. More HIV, more malaria, more measles, more tuberculosis, more chikungunya…they will come for us. Had Trump been President in 2014, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa would have been several regional Ebola epidemics around the globe. It would have easily cost $100 billion or more in knock-on trade effects. Instead of saving millions of lives, President Trump this weekend announced a national “Strategic Reserve” of cryptocurrency, to include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and Cardano. I don’t really understand what those last three things even are, but I’m 99.99999% certain that none of them are a strategic asset. I do know that Trump donor and “Crypto Tzar,” David Sacks, happens to own all five. That is probably all you need to know about them, too. Our President had a nifty episode of narcissistic rage in the oval office on Friday, as he and his toady Vice President lectured Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for daring to ask what would make Vladimir Putin honor a new ceasefire this time, when he has broken three already (the Budapest Memorandum, First Minsk Agreement, and Second Minsk Agreement). This is the sort of thing markets absolutely do care about because for the last eight decades the Western world has been led–politically, militarily, and economically—by the United States, while in the first six weeks of Trump’s second administration, he has unilaterally done more to damage U.S. hegemony than anything else that has happened in the last eighty years. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas commented “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It is up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.” . . . Today, the U.S. equity market sold off again on a Trump plan for tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which makes no economic sense, unless one were clumsily trying to destroy the entire American auto industry except for Tesla. The policy of this administration is utterly incoherent other than fairly consistent in its awfulness. It’s a mix of Project 2025, white nationalism, Christian theocracy, Curtis Yarvin, aggrieved Silicon Valley sociopathy, Trump’s unpredictable narcissistic ego wounds, and the most brazen corruption ever seen in the United States. There’s no point even writing an outlook for the year or the month because it’s hard to know what cruel idiocy will happen next. My expectations for the second Trump administration were incredibly low, and Trump has delivered well beneath them. Humans are prone to normalcy bias, but nothing about this administration is normal. The decline of our country that I thought might take years to materialize is being delivered in mere weeks. As always, I tend to be very mild in the way my political views bleed into the portfolio, and we tend not to run the portfolio net short, ever, and this year has been no exception. Fortunately we’ve been positioned generally okay so far . . . We have close to 25% of the portfolio long foreign securities, whereas nearly all of our short positions tend to be in the United States, so, effectively, we are close to market neutral in the United States (on a beta-adjusted basis), and our modest net long exposure comes mostly from Europe, Japan, and Canada. . . . [T]he share prices of our longs have held up much better than the prices of our shorts . . . . . . But the last six weeks . . . to see millions of deaths getting queued up globally for no good reason and to see our nation weakened dramatically and its institutions gutted for nothing but some crazy ideology of destruction . . . it’s a good reminder that the world needs me and you. The world needs all of us. We, here at this moment, each of us the only one of us who has ever been or will ever be, the product of 13.7 billion years of the universe striving to see what is possible, we each make so many changes in the lives and the futures of everyone with whom we interact. Our country, the most gifted nation in the history of earth, is in such a stupid, needlessly dark time right now, but hopefully your response to that is to be a light in the lives of those around you. We’re incredibly fortunate to be here. . . . Thank you, as always, for your partnership. Good luck navigating all of this. The money part is not the hard part right now, and hopefully we’ll help to keep it that way. Join Indivisible! Plant seeds of DIS-disinformation!
It’s Not A State of the Union It’s A . . . March 4, 2025March 4, 2025 State of Emergency! HERE’S WHY We are abandoning our allies to align with Russia! Doing everything Putin wants us to do! Switching sides! Losing the Cold War! Relinquishing our role as Leader of the Free World! Dismantling our government! We are also starving children and enabling malaria, polio, and AIDS to flourish, even as we surrender our “soft power” to China and Russia. And launching a Smoot-Hawley-reminiscent trade war that, if continued, will spike inflation and interest rates, tank the world’s economies and stock markets, tank 401k’s, and cause widespread hardship. Most of you get all that. (Carl sees the emergency as men playing in women’s sports and immigrant-perpetrated crime.) WHAT TO DO In a word? More than ever. (Well, three words.) So if you’ve been avoiding the news or taking a break — welcome back. We need you. Here’s my checklist: 1. Watch (or listen to) Rachel Maddow every night. She’s sometimes shrill or unfair; but most of the time she’s right on target, and often she’s invaluable. Last night, for example, which you may be able to watch here. And should definitely be able to listen to here. Everything Trump is doing is what Putin wants him to do. Why is that? What are we getting in return? Is this what the American people voted for? The parallels to the late 1930’s and 1940 are chilling. 2. Consider Lawrence O’Donnell, Chris Hayes, and Morning Joe when you have time, too. 3. Join an Indivisible chapter, if you haven’t already, or start one of your own — and get all your friends and relatives to do likewise. Participate in the actions they suggest. 4. Plant seeds of DIS-disinformation. 5. Live even more frugally than before, if you can, to build savings to fund the struggle. 6. Watch tonight. Technically, it’s not a State of the Union — but, however awful, it is history in the making. And don’t be too angry if Democrats don’t do something brilliant, because it’s not entirely clear (at least to me) what would be most effective. I liked the idea of our all just boycotting — what a statement it would be to show the chamber half empty. But someone pointed out that it wouldn’t be empty — the Rs would likely just fill those seats with cheering Republican staffers. 7. Know that ultimately we ARE going to turn things around because this is NOT what most Americans want, and at the end of the day, ours is a government of the people, by the people, for the people. We are NOT going to give in to dictatorship as they did in Russia after their brief fling with democracy. 8. Spread the word. It’s not easy to move from watching the news to becoming part of it, attending a town hall or demonstrating in front of a senator’s local office holding up a witty home-made sign. It’s a sacrifice to redirect part of one’s Travel & Entertainment budget to one’s budget to help save the world. But compared to what our forefathers had to sacrifice for democracy? Or what our lives will be like if we fail? It’s thrilling to have a chance to be part of something this important. 9. Lists are better with TEN things, so add one of your own — and share it with me! READER FEEDBACK: PRONOUNS [I haven’t cherry-picked these. If any of my LGBTQ+ readers disagree, they haven’t me-mailed. But realistically, my readers skew older and less gender-nonconforming than those who’d be most likely to push back. I’m sure my view is not universally accepted — and I respect theirs . . . unless, that is, they advocate for the possessive — he/him/his. That I can’t respect — but, as I argued yesterday, on grounds of grammar and logic, not politicals.] Gloria: “THANK YOU for posting this. I agree 100%. Speaking of signaling, I think all liberals, progressives, Democrats, etc, who are attending protests and demonstrations should proudly carry the American flag along with their signs. The flag is a symbol that belongs to all of us, not to MAGA, yet they have appropriated it. It is important to signal that we demonstrate precisely because we love this country.” David T.: “Thank you for saying what nobody else seems willing to say: stop with the ridiculous virtue-signaling pronouns, unless (as you said) you are someone who uses pronouns that are not obvious to the rest of us. I absolutely agree that, despite good intentions, they’ve done us far more harm than good.” Drew W.: “Far and away the most damaging ad in 2024 was the one that ended, ‘She’s for they/them. He’s for us.'” → So I would argue that a more effective way to express support for the gender-nonconforming — rather than specifying your pronouns in solidarity — is to send something to one or two of these 100 groups.” Rich G.: “It’s not just pronouns. There are 500,000 athletes under the auspices of the NCAA. Maybe 10 transsexual athletes. My friends say they don’t want their daughters to have to compete against men. Duh! We allowed Trump to make this tiny example a big issue.” → Yes. Here was my discourse on that: “The Elephant In The Bathroom.”
Enough With The Pronouns – UPDATED March 4, 2025June 27, 2025 I got an email from a 78-year-old heterosexual partner in a major law firm whose first name is clearly male. His signature block specified his pronouns: he/him/his. The grammarian in me wonders why anyone needs to include the possessive. Is there an imaginable gender identity that would allow for he/him/hers? The progressive in me believes that most people who specify their pronouns, though wonderfully well-intentioned, should stop. I can think of only two reasons to specify pronouns. 1. To provide needed guidance, which the world should be grateful for and enthusiastically respect. This makes total sense. In most cases, however, guidance is not needed. Most people identify as — and are readily identifiable as — men or women. So the only reason for them to specify their pronouns is . . . 2. To signal support. Which is a beautiful thing but which raises this question: Does the comfort it provides our gender-nonconforming brethren outweigh the discomfort it may cause good people who are not yet at ease with gender-nonconformity? I want to win elections — not least to help protect the gender-nonconforming, who do not fare well in MAGA land or autocratic states like Russia and North Korea (our latest allies at the U.N.). By specifying pronouns when they’re not needed, we signal that we think everyone should — that specifying pronouns is what all enlightened people do. It kind of says (not literally, of course, but subtly): Democrats do this, Republicans don’t. (Well? Do you know Republicans who specify their pronouns?) If we controlled one or two branches of government, and if the Republican Party had not become the party of the Proud Boys and autocracy, I might feel differently. But when so much is at stake, I think we should avoid signaling to millions of good people that they really don’t fit in with us. Because on almost every policy that matters to them — from health care to the economy to climate, from taxing billionaires to sensible gun safety to not pardoning cop-beaters — we are exactly the party they fit in with. UPDATE! In June, I sent the above to a recent Rhodes Scholar who runs an LGBT nonprofit, urging him to stop specifying their pronouns unless they thought guidance might be needed. He replied: From our point of view, given that we work with Gen-Z LGBTQIA+ community members who generally support pronoun use, we think it is strategic for us to continue stating pronouns in OutVote-related communication. But we do understand your argument and think this is an important conversation to keep having! See: How Gen Z Changed Its Views On Gender | TIME 2023 To which I replied: Thank you for the TIME link – not new, but new to me. Wow. I guess I should amend my screed to suggest pronouns not be +indiscriminately+ used. I.e., it makes sense to use them in addressing a Gen Z audience, especially a queer one. But – until the world changes some more – candidates should generally not use them unless the gain they expect from young voters will outweigh the loss they can expect from everyone else. Does that make sense? He said it did. And so I have. BONUS Did you see Heather Cox Richardson’s recent post? “Putin is on the inside now.” It is so worth reading in full.
What To DO . . . And Krasnov — Really? March 2, 2025 The company that emails these posts to those of you who subscribe (the free trial period is now in its 29th year, but who’s counting?) encountered some kind of issue that kept Saturday night’s 9pm post from going out. (I retried at midnight, 1am and 10am as well — no luck.) So: I don’t know whether or when this one will reach subscribers, either. (I’m posting it Sunday afternoon.) If you did miss What To Do About Our Debt And Our Dictator, just click. I worked pretty hard on it. And now . . . The Krasnov file, so to speak. A thoughtful assessment of its credibility from “a former CIA Russia specialist who served in Moscow right about the time Trump first visited.” He concludes: One key misconception about espionage is the idea that ‘kompromat’ is the primary tool of recruitment. While kompromat can play a role, coerced agents are often unreliable and difficult to control. A much more effective intelligence relationship is one in which the collaborator sees mutual benefit. Trump’s rhetoric and actions in recent years—his reluctance to criticize Putin, his efforts to weaken NATO, and his alignment with Russian disinformation campaigns—do not suggest someone acting under duress. Instead, they suggest someone who, for his own reasons, has fully embraced the Russian position. Whether or not Trump was recruited in 1987 may ultimately be less important than the fact that today, he is aligned with Putin’s interests. Whatever the origins of that alignment, its current reality is undeniable. Watch 90 seconds of President Zelensky two weeks ago. Yes, he should be thanking us for your support — and has, over and over. But we should be thanking him, too. He and his countrymen have been doing all the fighting, dying, sacrificing, and suffering to protect NATO’s 32 democratic members from aggression.
What To Do About Our Debt And Our Dictator March 2, 2025March 2, 2025 I’ll quickly get to that — what to do — but first a quote . . . “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.” — Ronald Reagan . . . and a few headlines, because I just have to. I don’t expect you to click on them; you’ve doubtless seen so many already: ‘A spectacle to horrify the world’: what the papers say about Trump and Vance’s meeting with Zelenskyy S.E.C. halts fraud prosecution of Chinese national who sent Trump millions The Trump Administration Is Playing With Fire in Germany Trump’s AG Is Disbanding Anti-Corruption Teams created in 2022 to target Russian oligarchs Trump Welcomes Russian Oligarchs With $5 Million Golden Card Trump administration retreats in fight against Russian cyber threats Maureen Dowd: Rootin’ for Putin Bernie Sanders — this capitalist Harvard Business School grad’s perhaps surprising choice to head our shadow Cabinet, as argued here — writes (even before Friday’s horrifying Oval Office event): America must not surrender its democratic values . . . Rather than side with our longstanding allies to preserve democracy and uphold international law, the president voted with authoritarian countries such as Russia, North Korea, Iran and Belarus to oppose the resolution. Many of the other opponents of that resolution are undemocratic nations propped up by Russian military aid. Let’s be clear: this was not just another UN vote. This was the president of the United States turning his back on 250 years of our history and openly aligning himself with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. This was the president of the United States undermining the independence of Ukraine. And let us not forget who Putin is. He is the man who crushed Russia’s movement towards democracy after the end of the cold war. He steals elections, murders political dissidents and crushes freedom of the press. He has maintained control in Russia by offering the oligarchs there a simple deal: if you give me absolute power, I will let you steal as much as you want from the Russian people. He sparked the bloodiest war in Europe since the second world war. . . . Alongside his fellow oligarchs in Russia, Saudi Arabia and around the globe, Trump wants a world ruled by authoritarians in which might makes right, and where democracy and moral values cease to exist. Just over a century ago, a handful of monarchs, emperors and tsars ruled most of the world. Sitting in extreme opulence, they claimed that absolute power was their “divine right”. But ordinary people disagreed. Slowly and painfully, in countries throughout the world, they clawed their way toward democracy and rejected colonialism. At our best, the US has played a key role in the movement toward freedom. From Gettysburg to Normandy, millions of Americans have fought – and many have died – to defend democracy, often alongside brave men and women from other nations. This is a turning point – a moment of enormous consequence in world history. Do we go forward toward a more democratic, just and humane world? Or do we retreat back into oligarchy, authoritarianism, colonialism and the rejection of international law? As Americans, we cannot stay quiet as Trump abandons centuries of our commitment to democracy. Together, we must fight for our long-held values and work with people around the world who share them. So, okay — how? HOW WE +SHOULD+ BE LOWERING THE DEFICIT I. RAISE MORE 1. Let the Trump tax cuts expire on schedule but only for income above $400,000 a year. Bang: that saves $4 trillion over 10 years. 2. Raise the personal rate a little, but on only that portion above $1 million (and a little more on that portion above $10 million and a little more still above $100 million). Send thank you notes to all who pay these higher rates: we celebrate their success and deeply appreciate their contribution to our society. 3. Raise the corporate rate a little, but on only that portion of income above $100 million (and a little more still above $1 billion). At the same time, to avoid driving companies to relocate, rejoin the 15% Global Minimum Corporate Tax Rate agreement that the U.S. persuaded 140 nations to signed on to in 2021 (set to take effect this year), and which Trump last month bailed on. Urge those 140 nations, in fact, to raise the minimum rate from 15% to 18% . . . which should give us room to go a little higher. (Is a company really going to leave the U.S. over a small difference in the tax rate?) 4. Close estate-tax loopholes and raise the rate on estates above $25 million and even more above $100 million and $1 billion. Surely, it’s least painful to pay taxes after you’re dead. No? This would still leave billionheirs plenty of money — just less. And it would increase charitable giving (because, after tax, it would be less expensive). 5. Fund the IRS adequately to audit complicated high-dollar personal and corporate tax returns. Not all of them every year; but enough of them to (a) raise lots of revenue; (b) inspire an even higher rate of voluntary compliance. These five measures would raise trillions in deficit-reducing revenue with ZERO pain on the part of 98% of us, and minimal pain on those fortunate enough even to notice. They would not have to reduce their standard of living in any way. II. SPEND LESS 1. Root out fraud, not least by rehiring the 18 experienced, effective inspectors general Trump immediately (and illegally) fired without cause . . . whose job it was to root out fraud. Many if not all of them had the experience and passion to do the job well. 2. Reform Social Security along the lines I’ve been suggesting for more than 20 years. E.g., here. No current recipients would lose a dime; future recipients would have a decade or more to prepare for the very modest changes; and by the time those changes were slated to kick in — if we get our house in order — economic growth and productivity gains might have been sufficient to allow Congress to responsibly cancel them even before they ever did kick in. But enacting these adjustments now would signal to the bond market that we’re getting our long-term finances in order, which would help to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates would have an enormous impact on the cost of servicing our $36 trillion National Debt, and thus our annual deficit. 3. Stem the growth in health care costs NOT by penalizing Medicare and Medicaid recipients or Veterans, but by negotiating drug prices (why does Uncle Sam have to pay drastically more for drugs than I do here?); and by finding efficiencies in our bloated insurance system (which I admit will be harder, because so many lobbyists are employed to resist reform). 4. REDUCE tariffs, which are simply a tax on American businesses and consumers that raises inflation . . . which in turn raises interest rates, including the rate we pay on our massive National Debt. 5. Stop indiscriminately firing experienced public servants . . . which only weakens our economy and our society. Instead, do a deliberate, thoughtful review to find places government can be reorganized to run more efficiently. It won’t make much of a dent in the deficit (the federal workforce is a small part of our annual budget); but efficiency is always worth striving for, and every little bit helps. And don’t cancel the infrastructure investments we’re finally embarking on (other than any “bridges to nowhere” you might find, though I don’t expect there are any or many). Putting people to work on infrastructure projects provides jobs, which provides tax revenues (and purpose in people’s lives and more social cohesion) . . . and builds a more competitive, successful economy that itself will produce more tax revenues over the long run. 6. Pass the hard-bargained bi-partisan Immigration Reform bill Trump killed last year to keep the border in crisis as an election issue. Deport violent criminals — of course! — but don’t drain the country of labor needed to produce the goods and services — and groceries — we consume. Spending a fortune to rid the country of these workers will (a) add to the deficit; and more importantly, (b) drive up inflation and the interest rate we have to pay on our massive National Debt. HOW TO DEAL WITH THE DICTATOR As posted here Wednesday, wannabe capo di tutti capi — godfather of all the kleptocrat autocrats may be more apt than “dictator” — but whatever we call him, he’s in bed with the journalist-and-opposition-leader-murdering leaders of Russia and North Korea. We’ve switched sides. If you can find just a few more minutes (don’t hate me!), watch our former Ambassador to Russia make the case: Trump doesn’t want to be leader of the free world, he wants to be buddies with Putin and the rest. But as heartbroken as he is, Ambassador McFaul offers hope. He says that it’s the people’s country, not Trump’s; that the people are overwhelmingly against switching sides; and that he believes we, the people, can prevail. Watch. Join your local Indivisible chapter. Inspire your kids and grandkids to join theirs. Plant seeds of DIS-disinformation. Boost everyone you know: tell them that being distraught is entirely warranted — but not helpful. Helpful is to take action; which we will increasingly be called upon to do. Save money in all the insanely frugal ways I suggest in my book — here’s an example, $850 on iced tea — because saving democracy will require each of us to contribute what we can. Obviously, we have to see to it that free and fair mid-term elections are held and that we win them. But even before that we may need to give Republicans in the House and Senate the spine to impeach Trump and Vance. I know it sounds impossible — and it may be impossible. But . . . third time’s a charm?
What To Do About Our Debt And Our Dictator March 1, 2025 I’ll quickly get to that — what to do — but first a quote . . . “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.” — Ronald Reagan . . . and a few headlines, because I just have to. I don’t expect you to click on them. You’ve doubtless seen so many already: ‘A spectacle to horrify the world’: what the papers say about Trump and Vance’s meeting with Zelenskyy S.E.C. halts fraud prosecution of Chinese national who sent Trump millions The Trump Administration Is Playing With Fire in Germany Trump’s AG Is Disbanding Anti-Corruption Teams created in 2022 to target Russian oligarchs Trump Welcomes Russian Oligarchs With $5 Million Golden Card Trump administration retreats in fight against Russian cyber threats Maureen Dowd: Rootin’ for Putin Bernie Sanders — this capitalist Harvard Business School grad’s perhaps surprising choice to head our shadow Cabinet, as argued here — writes (even before Friday’s horrifying Oval Office event): America must not surrender its democratic values . . . Rather than side with our longstanding allies to preserve democracy and uphold international law, the president voted with authoritarian countries such as Russia, North Korea, Iran and Belarus to oppose the resolution. Many of the other opponents of that resolution are undemocratic nations propped up by Russian military aid. Let’s be clear: this was not just another UN vote. This was the president of the United States turning his back on 250 years of our history and openly aligning himself with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. This was the president of the United States undermining the independence of Ukraine. And let us not forget who Putin is. He is the man who crushed Russia’s movement towards democracy after the end of the cold war. He steals elections, murders political dissidents and crushes freedom of the press. He has maintained control in Russia by offering the oligarchs there a simple deal: if you give me absolute power, I will let you steal as much as you want from the Russian people. He sparked the bloodiest war in Europe since the second world war. . . . Alongside his fellow oligarchs in Russia, Saudi Arabia and around the globe, Trump wants a world ruled by authoritarians in which might makes right, and where democracy and moral values cease to exist. Just over a century ago, a handful of monarchs, emperors and tsars ruled most of the world. Sitting in extreme opulence, they claimed that absolute power was their “divine right”. But ordinary people disagreed. Slowly and painfully, in countries throughout the world, they clawed their way toward democracy and rejected colonialism. At our best, the US has played a key role in the movement toward freedom. From Gettysburg to Normandy, millions of Americans have fought – and many have died – to defend democracy, often alongside brave men and women from other nations. This is a turning point – a moment of enormous consequence in world history. Do we go forward toward a more democratic, just and humane world? Or do we retreat back into oligarchy, authoritarianism, colonialism and the rejection of international law? As Americans, we cannot stay quiet as Trump abandons centuries of our commitment to democracy. Together, we must fight for our long-held values and work with people around the world who share them. So, okay — how? HOW WE +SHOULD+ BE LOWERING THE DEFICIT I. RAISE MORE 1. Let the Trump tax cuts expire on schedule but only for income above $400,000 a year. Bang: that saves $4 trillion over 10 years. 2. Raise the personal rate a little, but on only that portion above $1 million (and a little more on that portion above $10 million and a little more still above $100 million). Send thank you notes to all who pay these higher rates: we celebrate their success and deeply appreciate their contribution to our society. 3. Raise the corporate rate a little, but on only that portion of income above $100 million (and a little more still above $1 billion). At the same time, to avoid driving companies to relocate, rejoin the 15% Global Minimum Corporate Tax Rate agreement that the U.S. persuaded 140 nations to signed on to in 2021 (set to take effect this year), and which Trump last month bailed on. Urge those 140 nations, in fact, to raise the minimum rate from 15% to 18% . . . which should give us room to go a little higher. (Is a company really going to leave the U.S. over a small difference in the tax rate?) 4. Close estate-tax loopholes and raise the rate on estates above $25 million and even more above $100 million and $1 billion. Surely, it’s least painful to pay taxes after you’re dead. No? This would still leave billionheirs plenty of money — just less. And it would increase charitable giving (because, after tax, it would be less expensive). 5. Fund the IRS adequately to audit complicated high-dollar personal and corporate tax returns. Not all of them every year; but enough of them to (a) raise lots of revenue; (b) inspire an even higher rate of voluntary compliance. These five measures would raise trillions in deficit-reducing revenue with ZERO pain on the part of 98% of us, and minimal pain on those fortunate enough even to notice. They would not have to reduce their standard of living in any way. II. SPEND LESS 1. Root out fraud, not least by rehiring the 18 experienced, effective inspectors general Trump immediately (and illegally) fired without cause . . . whose job it was to root out fraud. Many if not all of them had the experience and passion to do the job well. 2. Reform Social Security along the lines I’ve been suggesting for more than 20 years. E.g., here. No current recipients would lose a dime; future recipients would have a decade or more to prepare for the very modest changes; and by the time those changes were slated to kick in — if we get our house in order — economic growth and productivity gains might have been sufficient to allow Congress to responsibly cancel them even before they ever did kick in. But enacting these adjustments now would signal to the bond market that we’re getting our long-term finances in order, which would help to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates would have an enormous impact on the cost of servicing our $36 trillion National Debt, and thus our annual deficit. 3. Stem the growth in health care costs NOT by penalizing Medicare and Medicaid recipients or Veterans, but by negotiating drug prices (why does Uncle Sam have to pay drastically more for drugs than I do here?); and by finding efficiencies in our bloated insurance system (which I admit will be harder, because so many lobbyists are employed to resist reform). 4. REDUCE tariffs, which are simply a tax on American businesses and consumers that raises inflation . . . which in turn raises interest rates, including the rate we pay on our massive National Debt. 5. Stop indiscriminately firing experienced public servants . . . which only weakens our economy and our society. Instead, do a deliberate, thoughtful review to find places government can be reorganized to run more efficiently. It won’t make much of a dent in the deficit (the federal workforce is a small part of our annual budget); but efficiency is always worth striving for, and every little bit helps. And don’t cancel the infrastructure investments we’re finally embarking on (other than any “bridges to nowhere” you might find, though I don’t expect there are any or many). Putting people to work on infrastructure projects provides jobs, which provides tax revenues (and purpose in people’s lives and more social cohesion) . . . and builds a more competitive, successful economy that itself will produce more tax revenues over the long run. 6. Pass the hard-bargained bi-partisan Immigration Reform bill Trump killed last year to keep the border in crisis as an election issue. Deport violent criminals — of course! — but don’t drain the country of labor needed to produce the goods and services — and groceries — we consume. Spending a fortune to rid the country of these workers will (a) add to the deficit; and more importantly, (b) drive up inflation and the interest rate we have to pay on our massive National Debt. HOW TO DEAL WITH THE DICTATOR As posted here Wednesday, wannabe capo di tutti capi — godfather of all the kleptocrat autocrats may be more apt than “dictator” — but whatever we call him, he’s in bed with the journalist-and-opposition-leader-murdering leaders of Russia and North Korea. We’ve switched sides. If you can find just a few more minutes (don’t hate me!), watch our former Ambassador to Russia make the case: Trump doesn’t want to be leader of the free world, he wants to be buddies with Putin and the rest. But as heartbroken as he is, Ambassador McFaul offers hope. He says that it’s the people’s country, not Trump’s; that the people are overwhelmingly against switching sides; and that he believes we, the people, can prevail. Watch. Join your local Indivisible chapter. Inspire your kids and grandkids to join theirs. Plant seeds of DIS-disinformation. Boost everyone you know: tell them that being distraught is entirely warranted — but not helpful. Helpful is to take action; which we will increasingly be called upon to do. Save money in all the insanely frugal ways I suggest in my book — here’s an example, $850 on iced tea — because saving democracy will require each of us to contribute what we can. Obviously, we have to see to it that free and fair mid-term elections are held and that we win them. But even before that we may need to give Republicans in the House and Senate the spine to impeach Trump and Vance. I know it sounds impossible — and it may be impossible. But . . . third time’s a charm?
For God’s Sake, Carl: WATCH THIS March 1, 2025 Just click here. I’ve started the clip about 11 minutes in, to save you time. I beg you to watch the 15 minutes that follow. Thoughts on what we should DO about this nightmare — and Carl’s reaction, if he cares to share one — to follow soon.
Cognitive Dissonance February 27, 2025February 26, 2025 Mark Aaron James: This is what sucks about cognitive dissonance. Once you’ve committed, and defended a position, it is VERY difficult to rectify such a mistake with one’s sense of self. Humans are incredibly reluctant to see themselves as less informed, making bad decisions, unknowingly supporting evil, and being fooled. They will, honestly, die defending a choice, rather than admit they were flawed. It is one of our greatest weaknesses as a species. There is a gentle process, where you can lead people to figure it out themselves, but just telling them, even showing them evidence, often causes them to double down. I wish this weren’t true, but there are tons of studies about it. Ignorant people are fragile, and that sucks for anyone hoping to make change. → That’s the problem all right. Yet . . . . . . when the 79 million Americans on Medicaid see how hard Trump is trying to cut their benefits . . . while cutting taxes for millionaires and billionaires . . . and ballooning the deficit . . . . . . when farmers lose the sales they used to make to USAID to feed starving children (and win the world’s admiration and goodwill) . . . . . . when shoppers see the price of eggs double what got them to vote for Trump . . . . . . and hard-working public servants who voted for him are treated with contempt and laid off . . . . . . and government services get worse and air safety becomes a concern and measles spreads and 401k’s fall . . . . . . and they wonder how it makes America great to pardon cop beaters . . . . . . and to vote with Russia and North Korea against Ukraine and our allies . . . . . . I think more than a few of the good people who trusted Trump with their vote will feel betrayed. Whether this will happen in time to save the country — and whether free and fair elections will be allowed in 2026 — I don’t know. They have elections in Russia and North Korea, too. Join Indivisible! Take 20 minutes a day to spread DIS-disinformation! BONUS Will it be okay for Trump to murder people as Russia’s Putin and North Korea’s Kim do? Adam Schiff puts the question to a Trump nominee.
Two Alarms: Your Investments and Your Country February 26, 2025 YOUR COUNTRY Jonathan Rauch writes: Seeking to make the world safe for gangsterism, Putin used propaganda, subversion, and other forms of influence to spread the model abroad. Over time, the patrimonial model gained ground in states as diverse as Hungary, Poland, Turkey, and India. Gradually (as my colleague Anne Applebaum has documented), those states coordinated in something like a syndicate of crime families—“working out problems,” write Hanson and Kopstein in their book, “divvying up the spoils, sometimes quarreling, but helping each other when needed. Putin in this scheme occupied the position of the capo di tutti capi, the boss of bosses.” Until now. Move over, President Putin. So worth reading in full! Joe O’Neill in the New York Review: We’re in new territory—systemic democratic collapse. Things are coming at us fast. It’s hard to know which way to turn. . . . Democrats have disgraced themselves. They’ve looked terrified and defeated and confused. They’ve hidden behind consultant-devised talking points about grocery prices. They’ve cast votes to confirm Trump’s extremist cabinet nominees. Jim G.’s prescription: Democrats must stop conducting business as usual! > Declare an emergency—an ongoing lawless authoritarian takeover! > Designate a leader of the opposition — someone vigorous, passionate, and credible! [My choice.] > Hold a daily press briefing on the Capitol steps calling out every lie and illegal action of the previous day! > Refuse to cast any vote, confirm any nominee, agree to any unanimous consent resolution, until Republicans commit to return to the rule of law! There is a time for exclamation marks, and this is one of them. Join Indivisible! Spread DIS-disinformation! YOUR INVESTMENTS I think there’s a good chance of a major stock market decline in the not-too-distant future (did it start last week?). I could be wrong, of course. But you wouldn’t be alone if you liquidated some of your holdings (especially in retirement accounts where no tax is incurred). The world’s wisest investor, Warren Buffett, would be right there beside you, with well north of $300 billion on the sidelines, ready to scoop up bargains, should the bottom fall out. I’ve sold very little, because most of my holdings are “special situations” not all that closely correlated to the market as a whole. Take CHRB — suggested here two years ago at $13.50 (currently $18.89), a preferred stock paying an 8.5% dividend on its $25 face value — $2.125 per year, 53 cents each quarter (so 11% or so currently). That’s a pretty good current yield, and it is enhanced by the promise of redemption 6 quarters from now at its full $25 value. Should all go as planned, that would be a further 32% gain from here regardless of what the stock market does. Or take PRKR. If its lawsuits go well, the stock will do well. If they tank, it will tank. How this rank speculation fares is largely independent of the broader market. Or take OPRT. My fantasy is to imagine that I am a fund manager who owns 100,000 shares of TSLA, purchased a few years ago at $70. It’s plunged from its high but still over $300 a share (at least as of last night) sporting a price earnings ratio well over 100 . . . and I’ve read Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter and I’m getting nervous . . . so I sell it — and have $30 million to invest. Where do I put it? Maybe I see that OPRT is projecting earnings of $1.10-$1.30 a share and that, closing yesterday at $7.20, it’s selling for 6 times projected earnings. So maybe I think about buying 1 million shares. In a real panic, everything, certainly including OPRT, would fall. But (I like to think) OPRT would be the kind of stuck that bobbed back up pretty fast. Remember! Only with money you can truly afford to lose!
Snatching Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory February 25, 2025 U.S. VOTES AGAINST U.N. RESOLUTION CONDEMNING RUSSIA FOR UKRAINE WAR. Really. We did that. The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse but Trump is riding to Putin’s rescue — and fast destroying the largely successful 80-year post-War order. At home, everything he touches dies. Not least the FBI. An Obituary For the FBI: The 117-year-old Federal Bureau of Investigation, long heralded as the nation’s premier national law enforcement agency — an avowedly nonpartisan, independent investigator that for decades has pursued gangsters, mafioso, Nazis, terrorists, spies, cybercriminals, and corrupt politicians without fear, favor or political malice — died over the weekend. . . . The Sunday night announcement that Dan Bongino — a bombastic MAGA podcast host, fiery right-wing troll, one-time Secret Service agent, and three-time failed Republican congressional candidate — would be the new FBI deputy director and join the newly confirmed director Kash Patel, another MAGA loyalist better known for his hucksterism of Trump merchandise than his management, leadership, or law enforcement experience, and lead the FBI marked an almost certainly permanent alteration of the fabric of the institution. In the entire modern history of the bureau, the deputy director — the #2 person who serves as the day-to-day operational leader of the FBI — has always been a civil servant and career special agent, one who has worked his (they’ve always been men) way up the ranks over a two-decade career and is deeply familiar with the workings of the bureau, its wide-ranging missions, and curious culture. All previous modern directors, meanwhile, have had deep experience with the FBI — working in senior roles in law enforcement, atop the Justice Department, or as federal judges. Patel and Bongino . . . bring none of that acquired expertise or wisdom to the role; neither has worked for the FBI for a single day and neither has meaningful senior management experience. Both have been installed, effectively, to troll the libs . . . Don’t take my word for it — Bongino said it himself in 2018: “My entire life right now is about owning the libs.” He added then: “We win, you lose, the new rules are in effect.” That’s just an excerpt. It gets worse. So worth reading in full. If you wanted to become a dictator like the men you admire — Putin / Orban / Kim Jong Un / Xi — isn’t this exactly what you would do? We once held these truths to be self-evident: That democracy was better than authoritarianism; that murderous kleptocrats were the bad guys; that those who died for their country were heroes, not suckers; that beating cops defending democracy would be unforgiveable; that the Supreme Court, Justice Department and FBI should be above politics. Now, not all of us do. Putin is winning. Trump, one of his former Chiefs of Staff asserts, is “fascist to the core.” And, yes, though not a voracious reader, he for years kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside. If you missed Sunday’s column, here are some things we can do.