But first . . .
Good earnings. Don’t sell. More Monday.
All this napping seems to have paid off.
There will doubtless be a lot of ups and downs along the way, but yesterday, as the market for HAPN and its warrants continued to sort itself out, the stock closed at $5.15 and the warrants at 48 cents.
Some of you paid as little as 23 cents for HAPNW a few weeks ago, and so have a double. Others paid more like 34 cents (or 42 cents yesterday morning) and so are not yet in the Giddy Zone. Well, hang on.
My own sense is that, in the short run, the stock should perhaps be more like $5.90 or $6 – given that some pretty sophisticated institutions preferred to keep their shares rather than exchange them for $5.97 in cash – and that the warrants should be at least a couple of dimes above their intrinsic value, which would put them at $1.10 or $1.20. Not to say I’m predicting that; it just seems to me a reasonable way to think about what the two securities might reasonably be selling for absent new developments.
In the quarters and years to come, of course, the valuation will depend at least in large measure on how well the company does. If it grows and is nicely profitable, we almost certainly have a winner. If it stumbles (or the market crashes just when, let’s say, three years from now, the warrants were about to expire and we were about to realize a 1000% gain) – we could certainly still lose all our money.
But to me, anyway, the warrants are nowhere near high enough to begin taking profits.
Famous last words.
And now . . .
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