Carl Feels Like A Lobster July 15, 2021July 14, 2021 But first, in case you missed it: Joint Chiefs chairman feared potential ‘Reichstag moment’ aimed at keeping Trump in power. . . . In the waning weeks of Donald Trump’s term, the country’s top military leader repeatedly worried about what the president might do to maintain power, comparing his rhetoric to Adolf Hitler’s during the rise of Nazi Germany . . . → Worth reading in full if you think the biggest threat America faces is from people who want to raise the corporate tax rate halfway back to where it was and extend Medicare to cover dental care, eye care, and hearing aids. And now, back to lobsters: John R. Firestone: “This piece by David Foster Wallace in Gourmet Magazine from 2004 is a “classic.” I heard Ruth Reichl talk about this article – they had been soliciting Wallace to write something for Gourmet for years, so they were thrilled when he finally agreed to write about the Lobster Festival, but appalled when it was finally submitted, as many (not Ruth) thought it was inappropriate and would offend their readers. Check out the Youtube audio of Wallace reading the article (and his intro, where he explains how he handles the footnotes in an audiobook!) Enjoy!” Sam G.: “Watch Seaspiracy and you will probably stop eating anything out of the sea. After watching it I was able to convince my 19-year-old son to accept vegetarian at least three times a week.” → Then again, Netflix documentary accused of misrepresentation by participants (“NGOs and experts quoted in film say it contains ‘misleading’ claims, erroneous statistics and out-of-context interviews”), so I’m going to watch but keep an open mind — and keep eating smoked salmon, at least for now, when it’s on sale. Carl: “Could you have one modicum of the compassion that you have for lobsters for patriotic Americans, veterans, and all other America lovers who are heartbroken, terrified and in shock over the BLM/Marxist/CRT/Democrat anti-American ongoing events of the recent months? Every July 4th for about 245 years, Americans have celebrated the freedom of America that our Declaration of Independence and Constitution have given us only to be cruelly affronted by flag burning of brainwashed ignorant mobs. Ingrates that never experienced the terror of living in a Cuba, Russia, China and Venezuela have organized and are bringing down the free civil capitalist society we have enjoyed. Could you try to put yourself in a patriotic American’s shoes to see how they feel their beloved country is being dropped into boiling water and express some compassion for them? It’s not just lobsters.” → For all his patriotic passion, I believe Carl has it backwards. There is nothing patriotic about siding with autocrats and the Proud Boys. Nothing UNpatriotic or “anti-American” about investing in kids or seeking to put millions to work (for private companies) revitalizing our nation’s infrastructure. Does Carl keep a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside? Does it not trouble him that Trump, no big reader, kept this one by his? Or that he sides with journalist-murdering Putin over his own 17 American intelligence agencies? Where is the patriotism in that? Or in inciting a mob to storm the Capitol and then cheering them on – for hours – as he watched them on TV? The only reason – or at least the main reason – Carl and other good Americans are “heartbroken, terrified, and in shock” is that they have been sold a bill of goods. Was Carl himself “cruelly affronted” by the “flag burning of a brainwashed ignorant mob” on July 4th? Where? And how are ingrates “bringing down the free civil capitalist society”? Somebody’d better warn Wall Street — record stock prices seem to suggest Goldman Sachs is unaware of American capitalism’s demise. And speaking of high prices . . . BONUS Len Vishnevsky: “Unopened Super Mario 64 game from 1996 sells for $1.56M. Irrational Exuberance! My shrink-wrapped MYM is older. Make me an offer.” → Three bucks. You pay shipping.
Lobsters Have 10 Feet July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 What I really want to write about is how we might make a wealth tax work. But in the meantime: lobsters. I serve 175 lobsters every July 4th and have for about 30 years, so about 5,000 of them. When people hear this — 175 lobsters??? — and ask how on earth I’m able to cook so many, I joke that we take the safety off the hot tub, which can then get up to around 130 degrees (coincidentally, the temperature in California last week) . . . wait a couple of hours . . . then pass around pitchforks. “There’s just a tiny hint of chlorine,” I say, if they’re still buying it, eyes wide, “but that taste is more than drowned out by the melted butter.” In fact, of course, none of this is true. (Not least because the second summer we were together — needlessly worried about how I might use the hot tub during the week when he wasn’t around — Charles filled the hot tub with soil and turned it into a planter.) What really happens is that a family comes over each year with all the pots and propane needed to put on a proper clam bake. I love our country and I love my friends, so it’s worth the splurge. But what about the lobsters? (“Cockroaches of the sea,” as Dave Barry once famously profiled them.*) Trying to put myself in their 10 shoes (flip flops?), it seems to me that being crammed together in coolers for long periods would be worse than the infamous moment when they die all but instantly as they’re dropped into the boil. But that can’t be fun either, so I do wonder whether it’s time — if not 5,000 lobsters past time — to change the menu. Which is what the British Parliament has been wondering as well. And not just for lobsters. A fascinating report in the Washington Post. Let me know your thoughts. *So to summarize: If you’re looking for a hearty entree that (1) is related to spiders; (2) is descended from a worm; and (3) has mutant baby-poopers walking around on its lips; then you definitely want a lobster. I myself plan to continue avoiding them, just as I avoid oysters, which are clearly — scientists should look into this next — members of the phlegm family. . . . Soon: A consideration of the wealth tax.
Texas At Less Than Its Best July 13, 2021July 12, 2021 Yesterday I promised this transcript: . . . Just a few days after the 2020 presidential election, the lieutenant governor of the great state of Texas, a man named Dan Patrick, announced a cash reward [of] up to $1 million to anyone who could find evidence of the supposed voter fraud that President Trump said had cost him the election. And this $1 million prize was not just for people in Texas, it was an offer valid in all 50 states . . . And wouldn`t you know it? Soon after Texas`s Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick threw that chum into the water, he got a bite. Oddly, he got it from somebody who has the same job he has in a different state. The lieutenant governor in Pennsylvania, a Democrat named John Fetterman said that he had taken on the challenge from Dan Patrick, and bingo, instantly, he hit pay dirt. He said he had bang up surefire evidence of an instance of real voter fraud in the 2020 election right in his home state of Pennsylvania and it was maybe not the kind of voter fraud his Texas counterpart was hoping for. But John Fetterman tried to collect just the same. He said, hey, Lieutenant Governor Patrick, it`s me John Fetterman, your counterpart in Pennsylvania. I`d like to collect your handsome reward for reporting voter fraud. I`ve got a dude in Forty Fort PA who tried to have his dead mom vote for Trump. Oddly, as far as we know, Pennsylvania`s lieutenant governor did not receive any of that reward money . . . But he was not the only one. There was another Pennsylvania guy. This one in Delaware County, Pennsylvania. He filled out a voter registration application for his dead mother as well. Although his mother had been dead for like a dozen years. The guy then requested and submitted an absentee ballot in her name with a vote for Donald Trump for president in 2020. When the state of Pennsylvania flagged his mother`s voter registration as belonging to an obviously dead person, this guy ended up signing and sending back a letter to the state swearing that in fact, she was still alive. He did that all in order to deliberately cast a single fraudulent vote for Donald Trump. He plead guilty to it in court. But wait, there`s more. There was a guy in Chester County, Pennsylvania, another registered Republican, who went and cast his ballot at his local polling place. But then 45 minutes later he came back wearing sunglasses. And in sunglasses, he cast a ballot in his son`s name. Somehow, an alert poll worker saw through his brilliant sunglasses disguise. If you don`t just want to pick on Pennsylvania, there`s also a guy in Ohio, an actual elected local Republican official in his town in Ohio. He voted twice in 2020, once for himself, and once by forging his dead father`s signature. Again, he`s an elected Republican official in Ohio. Voter fraud is very, very rare in our country, but there are a few instances of it here and there usually affecting a single vote. And the few instances of it that do turn out from time-to-time, they`re usually ridiculous. And all of those instances that I just described from 2020 . . . all of those Republicans, ALL of them got off with basically a slap on the wrist . . . The guy who voted for his long dead, dozen years dead mother swearing she was still alive — he got five years` probation. The local Republican elected official in Ohio who voted for his dead father got three days in jail and a $500 fine. And it is worth keeping that context in mind when you also remember the case of Crystal Mason. . . . In 2016, she went to her local polling place in Tarrant County, Texas to vote, she discovered her name was not on the voting rolls there. So, at the suggestion of a poll worker, Ms. Mason, filled out a provisional ballot. She was told basically, we`re not sure what the problem is, but fill out this provisional ballot. That way, if there is any real problem here, we won`t count it. But provisionally, you can cast this vote in case we can sort out whatever seems to be the matter. A few months after that experience, Crystal Mason was arrested and charged with illegal voting because when she filled out that provisional ballot, she was on supervised release after completing a prison sentence for a federal conviction. And she thought, because she had served her time in prison, that she was eligible to vote, she did not know that under Texas law, you`re not eligible to vote unless you`ve also completed any probation or any supervised release – after release from prison. She did not know that. Even though that was a technical misunderstanding, and even though she cast a provisional ballot, and even though her provisional ballot was never counted, she nevertheless was convicted and sentenced to five years in prison. Five years hard time for illegal voting. So, if you are a Republican white guy engaged in a premeditated scheme to deliberately cast a dead person`s vote for Donald Trump, even though you know that person`s dead and it`s illegal, oh, it`s forgiven, probation, perhaps a small fine. But if you are Crystal Mason in Texas, [a black woman] trying to vote because she does not know she is not eligible on a technicality . . . and in fact, her vote is never counted — five years in prison. Now, you may remember us talking about Ms. Mason`s case on this show before. It sticks in your mind right, because it is so, sort of egregious on its face, particularly egregious in context. Now it looks like again, in the state of Texas, it may be happening again. This story starts on primary day in Texas last year, so not the general election. This was actually Super Tuesday. The day that 15 different states and territories held their presidential primaries, including Texas, March 3rd last year and the turnout on Super Tuesday last year was massive. Harris County, Texas, home to the state`s largest city of Houston. Harris County was not prepared for the huge turnout on Super Tuesday last March. There were crazy long lines at lots of polling places, particularly in heavily minority communities. People in those communities had to wait hours to vote in many circumstances. And that was when the nation met a man named Hervis Rogers. Mr. Rogers was the last person in line at the polling site on Texas Southern University`s campus that night. That`s him, bald [black] guy there in the white shirt. Hervis Rogers worked two jobs. He got to the polling site just before polls closed at 7 PM to cast his ballot in the presidential primary. But in the end, it took him six hours and 20 minutes to get to the front of the line and cast his ballot. He finally walked out of that polling place after 130 in the morning. According to some reports, he may have been the last person in the entire state of Texas to cast a vote that night. Again, he waited in line more than six hours. He told reporters after it was all over that it was worth it. He felt good. He also said though, that he`d been there so long, he had to go get ready for his next shift, for his next job. After six hours online to vote. So, a couple things came out of that 2020 primary day in Texas. For one, Hervis Rogers became a little bit of the story of the day, became sort of one news cycle mini celebrity because his persistence and dedication were so impressive, also, because no American should have to be so persistent and so dedicated in order to just cast a vote. The other thing that happened in the wake of that was that the county clerk who oversaw that voting debacle on Super Tuesday last March in Texas, that county clerk apologized and resigned. Harris County commissioners appointed a new clerk, an energetic, ambitious, enthusiastic young man who really hit the ground running. He changed the allocation of voting machines and he extended voting hours, he convinced Harris County officials to approve millions more dollars to pay for poll workers and drive-thru voting and mail-in-ballots, all things to try to ease the bottlenecks that led to such terribly long lines, hours long lines during the primary. . . . [And so, in the 2020 general election] Harris County recorded its highest voter turnout in decades, in large part because Harris County made voting so easy and so accessible. They didn`t want to get stuck in those bottlenecks of years past. Vote at more times, in more places, vote from your car, vote by mail. Texas Republicans looked at that, they looked at record voter turnout in their state`s largest city, one of the most diverse cities in the country. And they said oh, no, we cannot let that happen again. And that is why Texas state legislators are back in the state capitol this week called back by the state`s Republican governor for a special session, among other things, try to pass some of the most restrictive voting laws in the country. And what the Republicans did to fashion this legislation, honestly, it seems like they just sort of looked at all the things that Harris County implemented last year, the measures that made voting easier and more accessible, made the voting process so smooth, led to record turnout. They looked at what Harris County did and they wrote a bill making, all of that illegal. And just as Republican legislators gather in the Texas Capitol now for this special session to rollback voting rights . . . and former President Donald Trump addressed Republicans from all across the country gathered up the road in Dallas for the annual CPAC convention . . . just as all that is happening, today comes word from Texas that Hervis Rogers has been arrested by the Republican attorney general of Texas for illegal voting. Turns out when Hervis Rogers waited over six hours to vote in March of 2020, on Super Tuesday, he was a few months short of the end of his parole for an old burglary conviction in the 90s. He`s been out of prison for more than 15 years, but his parole did not technically end until last June. And he voted in the primary in March. Texas attorney general has now charged Hervis Rogers with two counts of illegal voting, alleging that he voted in the 2018 general election as well. We do not know at this point whether this was an honest mistake on Hervis Rogers` part, perhaps he did not know he was not allowed to vote, we don`t know. That said perhaps it was a deliberate premeditated scheme to wait over six hours in line to vote in a democratic primary in order to break the law on purpose. We do not know what Mr. Rogers has to say about any of this. We can`t ask him because the attorney general of Texas has locked up Hervis Rogers on $100,000 bail. He`s in prison tonight. Unable to pay $100,000 bail. Bail is set at $100,000, because — what? — he might escape and vote again? Also, I should tell you this: Hervis Rogers lives in Harris County. He voted in Harris County. But the Texas attorney general has chosen to file these charges against him in neighboring Montgomery County. We asked the attorney general`s office why they filed these charges in that other county. They told us essentially because we can. They told us the laws allow them to file these charges in any county that abuts Harris County, if they want to. They wouldn`t tell us why they picked Montgomery County to press these charges specifically. I can tell you though, that according to the most recent U.S. Census data of the eight possible counties that abut Harris County, of the eight possible counties from which they have the option of drawing a jury pool, Montgomery County is just about the whitest, it has the lowest proportion of African American residents of any of those counties. I mean, I can`t tell you for certain that that is relevant there. But I can tell you that it`s true. The attorney general`s office, we went back to them again, they will not tell us why they chose this county. I`ll also tell you that the ACLU of Texas has put out a strong statement on this tonight, it says, the arrest and prosecution of Mr. Hervis Rogers should alarm all Texans. “He waited in line for over six hours to vote to fulfill what he believed to be his civic duty. He is now locked up on a bail amount that most people could not afford. He faces potentially decades in jail. Our law should not intimidate people from voting by increasing the risk of prosecution for at worst innocent mistakes.” If only he had been a white guy [intentionally] casting a vote in the name of a dead relative for Donald Trump, right [he could have been forgiven]. I will also tell you that the Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has put out his own statement tonight, sort of, at least he has tweeted: “Hervis is a felon rightly barred from voting under Texas law. I prosecute voter fraud everywhere we find it.” And Ken Paxton prosecutes it whenever he wants to, as well, it would seem, and wherever he wants to. The alleged illegal voting Hervis Rogers is accused of took place almost a year and a half ago. It`s not like he was hiding it. Like I said, he was a national media figure for a hot minute, because he had to cast his vote after that six plus hour wait before heading off to his other job. But apparently, this is the moment to arrest him, to lock him up on $100,000 bail and to bring charges against him that could put him in jail for decades. This is the moment. For some reason now have happened today. As Republican legislators gather in the Texas state capital to try to make it harder for Texans who look like Hervis Rogers to vote. And just in time for Ken Paxton to give his big headliner speech at CPAC this weekend in Dallas, just before Donald Trump takes the stage there. I should also tell you, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton himself is under indictment on securities fraud charges in the state of Texas, has been for years. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is [also] currently under FBI investigation for abusing his office to allegedly benefit a wealthy campaign donor, an elaborate scheme that was so egregious and over the top, seven of Paxton`s top deputies in the attorney general`s office reported him to law enforcement authorities. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is currently under investigation by the Texas State Bar to determine whether his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election based on bogus fraud claims amount to professional misconduct that should result in him losing his law license. Remember when he tried to get the Texas – excuse me remember when he tried to get the United States Supreme Court to toss out other states presidential votes for Biden and declare Donald Trump the winner? Yes, forge your dead parent`s signature in order to vote for Trump, slap on the wrist. Try to overturn a whole democratically decided election, you get to be Attorney General of Texas, even if you`re already under indictment. But wait in line for over six hours to cast a vote a few weeks before your parole is up, you get locked up with bail you cannot possibly pay, charged in a county that seems designed to ensure an all-white jury, threatened with decades in prison. That seems to be where we are today. . . . Texas just got a little smaller.
Will The Meme Stock Insanity Last? July 12, 2021July 11, 2021 But first . . . WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE? Our nation’s Capitol is under attack. Our elected representatives and staffers cower under desks fearing for their lives. The man who incited the mob watches on TV — for hours — cheering them on. Is this America? VOTER FRAUD Texas Republicans offered a $1 million reward and spent 22,000 taxpayer-funded person-hours searching for instances of voter fraud and found 16. Some of those 16 were for Trump, yet Texas has called its legislature back into special session to deal with the crisis. And has just put a guy in jail with $100,000 bail for spending 6 hours in line to vote — he’s black, so the lines are long — without having completed the last little bit of his 15 years’ parole for a crime committed 30 years ago, not realizing that this made him ineligible to vote. The full story is even more enraging, but MSNBC no longer allows segment-sharing and Friday’s transcript is not yet available. I’ll post it as soon as it is. In the meantime, here’s the story of a Pennsylvania voter imprisoned for five years for unintentionally voting improperly — contrasted with the wrist slaps of intentional voter fraud for Trump. It seems to me there’s something deeply wrong with these pictures, as well. And now . . . CRAZY TOWN Did you notice that GameStop stock went from $3.77 to $483 in the last few months on no substantive news? It’s since pulled back to $191, but that’s still a nice 50-fold bump. And it’s not the only stock to have had a wild irrational ride. Here’s why the meme stock revolution will last. Or not — but if you’re an investor, I think you’ll find it of interest. Have a great week!
Think Of Today As Friday July 10, 2021July 9, 2021 INFRASTRUCTURE. I’ve been writing about it forever. “Now let’s get it done” — 30 seconds. FOOLS. “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so certain of themselves, yet wiser people so full of doubts.” — Bertrand Russell I owe this quote to Your Bias Is, a site that helps us understand 24 ways we think unclearly . . . from Anchoring to the Spotlight Effect to the Dunning-Kruger Effect (whence the Bertrand Russell). If the world is round not flat / Biden the rightfully-elected president not Trump, then reviewing these 24 impediments to rational thought can help explain why tens of millions believed / believe otherwise even after the evidence was indisputable. FADERSMITH. I know about that site because my pal Henry sent it to me. Henry is Dan’s husband — Dan whose new album (streaming here free) I plugged yesterday. Great music to accompany water volleyball, or anything else fast-paced and exciting. (Not golf.) When I say “yesterday,” I mean the column that hit your inbox Thursday. Today’s, like quite a few “Friday” posts, hit Saturday — and there is a reason for that: why should Friday have all the fun? Every other day gets 24 hours before the next post hits — and Friday gets 72? It doesn’t seem fair! So sometimes I post “Friday” on Saturday, to spread things out a little. Now you know. SAVING THE WORLD. The DNC has begun organizing in nine target states — Virginia, New Jersey, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — with more to follow. The Campaign Pipeline Project, as it’s called, will support recruitment and training of local organizers following the same model Biden-Harris used to mobilize the largest volunteer cohort in presidential campaign history. Be part of this? Have a great weekend!
One More Speculation July 8, 2021July 7, 2021 But first . . . You know how someone you think you know can turn out to have a secret life? Usually, that doesn’t work out well. But at dinner last night a close friend’s husband announced: “Dan’s album just dropped.” Unbeknownst to any of us — and barely known to his husband — Dan, who works on the sociology side of high tech, has been composing, performing, and recording an album. And it’s good! Here it is. (And on Spotify and elsewhere: Fadersmith.) Dan is an accomplished cellist. This is not cello. Enjoy. Yesterday, I offered two speculations for money you can truly afford to lose. Long-time readers know I believe most people should invest money they want exposed to the risks and rewards of the market via index funds and ETFs. Boring — but likely to put you ahead of 90% of everyone else, with less effort . . . . . . but that those who want to have a little more fun should carve out some small portion of their stock market money (10%? 20%?) and split it among five or six interesting speculations. Some will crater; one or two might do really well. If you use the losers to lower your taxable income and your winners-held-more-than-a-year to fund the charitable donations you would otherwise have made with cash — perhaps through a Gift Fund account at Fidelity or Schwab as described here — then, even if you only break even, you’ll still come out ahead after tax. So yesterday I mentioned the August EVLO puts I had bought. (One of you wrote back to ask why Guru believes the stock will fall. Answer: “The stock will drop below $4 in July when they announce the results of their pivotal phase 2 trial of 225 patients with psoriasis. To treat psoriasis they are using an oral solution of killed, freeze-dried Prevotella bacteria, which they have convinced themselves will stimulate an immune suppressive response needed to treat psoriasis. Yes, you are reading this correctly: they are using dead bacteria to try to turn off the immune system. As you can imagine or could find out from Google, uncontrolled Prevotella when alive create infections such as tooth caries or pneumonia, although when found in the lower intestine they mostly get along with everybody else that’s in the bacterial world. The point is that of course they don’t turn off the immune system, they turn it on, but when you kill them you have a bunch of bacterial shells that just get dumped out the other end. They did run some phase II trials and announced that they had statistical significance, but when you look at their efficacy it looks the same as the placebo arm in the large well-done trials such as the one they are running now. It’s pretty amazing that people do crazy stuff like this but, with luck, we will get to take advantage of it.”) Today, Guru offers RFL. He believes the good results they hope to announce in September will not materialize and that, as a result, this $60 stock could plunge toward $10. I paid $3,50 for puts that allow me to sell it at $40 any time until November 19 . . . which would be a total loss for me if the stock remains above $40 but a large gain if the stock fell to $30 or $20 or $10.
Only With Money You Can Truly Afford To Lose! July 7, 2021July 6, 2021 But first . . . Inflation? Maybe not, argues Paul London: competition will stop it. And this . . . Kinzinger says he suspects some lawmakers knew what was going to happen on Jan. 6. Shouldn’t we maybe find out? And this, which I meant to post last week . . . And now . . . John Z.: “When you give an update, would you also note whether you think it’s still a good bet for those who didn’t get in when you did? You’ve recently said you’re hanging on to your RECAF. But would you buy it now at the current price?” → It’s such a good question . . . and so hard to answer because RECAF has quadrupled. When I update a stock that’s lower than it was — or about the same or a little higher – like CNF — it’s easy to say: “To my mind, the risk/reward remains excellent, so long as you invest only with money you can truly afford to lose.” But with RECAF? I guess the logical answer is yes: buy it if you can afford 100% loss. But the psycho-logical answer is: I find it hard to buy after things have shot up — or to recommend that you do. Which is why I was too dumb to buy Berkshire Hathaway at $300 (now $415,000). Not to suggest that RECAF is the next Berkshire – obviously. But the irrationality of not being comfortable buying — or suggesting you buy — after having missed a big jump is more or less the same. An exception would be PRKR, up tenfold at last night’s $1.28 close if you paid a dime, or threefold if you paid 35 cents. A triple from here seems more likely in the next 12 months than a wipeout. So it wouldn’t be dumb for someone who missed those lower prices to buy it with money she or he can truly afford to lose. Why the psycho-logical exception? For one thing, the stock was once $50 (long before I knew of it), albeit with fewer shares outstanding; so at $1.28 it doesn’t seem crazy high. For another, I first paid $1.10 for a few shares in 2018; so even though I bought far more at a dime and at 35 cents, I may in some way be desensitized to the fear of having missed the boat. Hocus-pocus, but you asked. Three more: PLSE: My guru says, “Its product has absolutely no value and is being marketed at a price that will get nobody to use it. It will actually cost the doctor more to use this without any benefit to either him or the patient. So it’s definitely gonna go out of business.” On the off chance you own shares . . . sell? Otherwise, unless you’re the kind of sophisticated investor who knows how to size and hedge short positions and can afford the risk Guru is wrong, going short is a terrible idea. Look at all the smart people who shorted GameStop or AMC and have now lost vastly more than they could ever have hoped to make had the trade worked out. The problem with buying PLSE puts, meanwhile — a bet that the stock will fall — is that they’re expensive — and only run six months. If it takes longer for Guru to be proven right (if he is), they’d expire worthless. Of possibly more interest: EVLO. At $13.49 last night, Guru believes it will be $4 before the August puts expire next month. With money I can truly afford to lose, I bought $10 puts for 85 cents and $7.50 puts for 45 cents. If the stock is $10 or higher on August 20, the puts will expire worthless. If it’s $4, I’ll make $6 on each $10 put, $3.50 on each $7.50 put — about seven times my money (shielded from taxes in my IRA). Wish me luck. And beware! Buying options is generally a losing game. Over time, the premiums, spreads, fees, and taxes do not tilt the odds in your favor. I made an exception in buying these puts because Guru is often right . . . and because I’d rather get my blood racing this way than this way. (Thanks, David.) Likewise: MWXRF, which I am entirely unqualified to evaluate but which at 7 cents a share (a $25 million market cap) I was psycho-logically unable to resist. They claim to have a cost-effective way to extract platinum and palladium from tens of millions of discarded catalytic converters. Read all about it (paid for by the company itself). This is a rank, ill-informed speculation, and I’m already having fun with it.
Patriotism July 5, 2021July 5, 2021 Our friend Carl read my July 4 weekend post — with the chilling video I hope you got a chance to watch — and reacted, simply: “What if you showed a little patriotism?” In my view, fighting to save democracy is the most patriotic thing we can do. Ideally, it can be done just by spreading the word and turning out to vote — no paramilitary training, baseball bats or bear spray required. Surely defending the Capitol was more patriotic than storming it; yet most elected Republicans refused to vote for a bill honoring the Capitol Police . . . refused to vote to establish a bipartisan commission to investigate what happened . . . on the night it happened, refused to certify the results of the election that Trump’s own officials called the most secure in our history. Watch this one-minute clip? It’s chilling that Trump — clocked in at more than 30,000 lies in four years — has been able to persuade tens of millions that he won by a landslide. Will stories like this . . . A Michigan Republican spent eight months searching for evidence of election fraud, but all he found was lies. . . . have any impact on people like these? Mostly good people, who think they’re the patriots, but who — like Carl, I would argue — have been misled.
Indivisible, With Liberty And Justice For All July 2, 2021July 4, 2021 This July 4 it could be worth asking: What if our Capitol were under attack by an angry mob? What if our democratically elected representatives feared for their lives? What if the President had incited the mob . . . and then retreated to the White House to cheer it on? What if they’re not done? Watch The Assault On Democracy. Have a great weekend.