Four Simple Things That — Together — Defeat The Virus May 18, 2020May 18, 2020 Here’s a good question, as asked by my friend Bill Mutterperl in the letters section of the New York Times: I keep thinking back on Joseph Welch, a lawyer who was not exactly a household name, who precipitated the end of Joe McCarthy with two famous sentences: “Have you no sense of decency, sir. At long last, have you no sense of decency”? Is there anyone today who could utter similar words and actually make the impact that Welch had? Or are we facing a demagogue far more powerful than McCarthy, who will do anything to gut our democratic institutions to preserve his power, and a population who will go along with the destruction of the greatest democracy the World has ever seen because they don’t understand what is happening? M.L.: “How about countering every mention of ‘Obamagate’ with an immediate reminder of the ongoing ‘Trumpocalypse’?” → I don’t like it: it implies both are real. Atul Gawande in the New Yorker on how to reopen: . . . Hygiene measures, screening, distancing, and masks. Each has flaws. Skip one, and the treatment won’t work. But, when taken together, and taken seriously, they shut down the virus. We need to understand these elements properly—what their strengths and limitations are—if we’re going to make them work . . . Like everything he writes, this article is thoroughly engaging and informative. Read it and “breathe easier.” Mark L.: “Current data shows Sweden’s death rate at 361 per million versus 271 for the U.S. Not the same, as you stated.” → Fair enough, except it’s possible that we are under-reporting our deaths by more than the Swedes are. So at the time I did my rough back-of the envelope calculation, accounting a little for that, it seemed as though they were sufficiently in the same ballpark. That said, I take your point. The official numbers are for sure worth noting. Thanks, Mark. S.F.T: “Joseph O’Neill thinks the Democrats need way better messaging to reach the persuadables. An intense advertising campaign. Loud, consistent, focused. Disparaging the GOP as a brand and boosting Democratic Party. As in: It’s terrible what’s happened to the Republican party. They can’t be trusted to govern anymore. They’ve crashed the economy. They’ve undermined our security. DEMOCRATS ARE THE PARTY OF THE ORDINARY PEOPLE.” → From the New York Review of Books, in very small part: . . . [Republicans have] a partisan brand advantage on “national security”—a concept with powerful connotations of strength, patriotism, and fear of the other. How on earth is that advantage possible? The Republican administration of George W. Bush failed to prevent the September 11 attacks, ignoring warnings about the danger posed by al-Qaeda. Then, under false pretenses, it started a war of regime change in Iraq that resulted in the rise of ISIS, the near-destruction of Syria, and a refugee crisis that shook the global political order. The current Republican administration has rapidly undermined NATO; poisoned relations with Ukrainian, South Korean, and Kurdish allies; worsened the climate crisis; and fostered the authoritarian interests of Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia at the expense of America’s long-established relationships and strategic goals. As for the GOP–Russia scandal (“Trump–Russia” is an inadequate term) and the undue influence of a hostile Russian leader over a Republican president who is obviously temperamentally unfit to be the commander-in-chief—the damage caused and the world-historical risks created are scarcely amenable to conventional description. Bill Clinton’s administration, meanwhile, expanded the NATO alliance while staying on good terms with Russia; forced the Haitian junta to step down; halted genocidal Serbian expansionism; helped bring peace to Ireland; and started no wars. Barack Obama started no wars, killed Osama bin Laden, established the United States Cyber Command, and made effective nuclear weapons deals with Russia and Iran. He did involve the US in a calamitous military intervention in Libya, but that did not result in a long-term military engagement. The Obama-Biden administration dealt effectively with two pandemics, and its National Security Council produced a sixty-nine-page playbook to prepare the Trump administration for future pandemics. Over the course of sixteen years the only real threat to American domestic security created by a Democratic president was, ironically, the Obama administration’s decision to do little as the Republican Party entered into a de facto (and ongoing) electoral alliance with Russia. . . .
Everything May 15, 2020 First, these quick takes: Obama’s crimes — in detail, with photographic evidence. (Spoiler alert: there were none.) FOX News on Trump — four amazing minutes last summer. It’s only gotten worse. Obama Osama And Trump — one minute. Second: For those who’ve bet money we can truly afford to lose on PRKR: yet another potential source of recovery. Third . . . w o o o o o w: Her bizarre Putin tweets aside, Tara Reade has a remarkably troubled background. I had no idea. (Quite a contrast with Kavanaugh’s accuser.) Finally: Steve: “I’m moderating a panel in two weeks on Who Was Right, Sweden Or The USA? We probably won’t know the answer for another 3 years, but it’s an interesting topic.” → “Sweden was a lot more right than the USA, as we had NO plan, and got both the deaths and a depression. The better question might be: who was right, Sweden or Denmark?” Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns. It’s all agonizing, and the jury is still out. But for now, while suffering no more deaths per capita than we have, a higher proportion of the Swedish population, having been infected, may have become immune. Time will tell. Foreign Affairs argues that Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be The World’s. Because remember as awful as even a single COVID-19 death is, there are also costs to preventing them: Today’s children are the pandemic generation. For millions, the future is now grim. . . . It’s impossible to overstate what this crisis will mean for the pandemic generation. This prolonged, unpredictable and highly contagious disease is upending their education, family lives, social relationships, resiliency and opportunities to pull themselves out of multigenerational cycles of poverty. The result might be a chasmic gap between relatively affluent children and those in poverty deeper than at any other time in modern history. There is no doubt that persistent lockdowns and school closings have affected children everywhere. UNICEF reports that more than 91 percent of the world’s children are impacted by school shutdowns, and at least 117 million children are at risk of missing vital health care, including critical vaccines. . . . Not to mention “food insecurity.” So it’s worth considering views like this one, from a doc at Johns Hopkins: How To Reopen America Safely Months ago, I called for a long lockdown. Now we must minimize collateral damage. . . . The full lockdown made sense weeks ago. But the situation is changing, and more data on the virus are now available to inform our next steps. . . . As a physician, I firmly believe that the primary goal of our reopening strategy should be to maximize the number of lives saved. But . . . [e]xtreme forms of mitigation can have diminishing returns. . . . [T]he effects on human life are real. In late April, the United Nations World Food Program reported that 250 million people may face starvation as a result of the economic impact of Covid-19. In America, local food banks are already congested with record wait times. There are other serious consequences of continuing stay-at-home orders and prolonging economic disruption. Deferred medical care, mental health problems, domestic violence and one of the biggest pre-Covid-19 public health problems in the United States — loneliness — are all magnified by in-home sheltering. The economic and public health harm associated with sheltering is yet to be fully measured. . . . Professor Makary goes on to make sensible suggestions, well worth the read. If you need something to cheer you up after all that, try these three minutes of a cat and a magpie. (Thanks, David.) Have a great week-end!
How Flying Is A Little Like Sending Your Kid Back To School May 14, 2020May 14, 2020 “If your child under the age of 15 has died during the covid pandemic, there is a 99.81% chance the cause of death was not COVID,” writes Zac Bissonnette. “People need to know this.” Not least because (per the Los Angeles Times) the economic devastation wrought by the pandemic could ultimately kill more people than the virus itself. And those deaths may not skew heavily toward people in their eighties and nineties. (About a third of COVID deaths have been among people over 85; four-fifths, over 65.) Not in any way to minimize the tragedy of people dying at any age. I have a wonderful 92-year-old friend who lives in a facility in Texas. I will be terribly sad if he ever dies. But if he ever does, the cause may well not be COVID. Only about 7% of the deaths in the U.S. among people over 85 have been COVID related. Of the 11,000 people in my Outlook, I know of only 2 who have succumbed to COVID. Both spectacular people, one 72, one 81; the former already on a last-gasp experimental treatment for late-stage cancer, the latter suffering from lung cancer. I hate that they are gone. But to protect such people, should we close all the schools and colleges until there is a vaccine or a cure? How will that help keep my 92-year-old friend safe? Or would it be more sensible to keep them — and others who are vulnerable — safely separated from potential infection while allowing healthy young people to go back to school and to work? “We need to be safe and smart, but we also need to be rational,” writes Zac. “Decision making in a terrified frenzy is never good decision making. Do you remember when President Obama said after one of the school shootings parents shouldn’t be afraid to send their kids to school? It’s a terrible problem, he said, and we’re doing everything we can to stop it against a ton of right-wing resistance. But, he said, parents need to know this is extremely rare. It’s safe to send your kids to school. That’s the sort of steady thinking we need.” It’s like flying. Scary, especially the first time you do it. But it helps to know that — statistically — you’re actually safer at 37,000 feet than you were in the car to the airport. The COVID-related Kawasaki-like disease that only strikes kids is also scary. But every time they show the heart-wrenching photo of a child whose life it’s taken, our political leaders and news anchors need to stress two things: > First, almost no kids die of Kawasaki syndrome. That’s why it’s news when one does. > Second, there were already thousands of Kawasaki cases in the U.S. every year — thousands! — and no one talked about shutting the schools. Why do these extra few hundred — distressing as they surely are — make the news night after night after night? It is not heartless to urge smart, sensible measures that could help lessen the tremendous economic destruction we’re watching play out, which has health — and mental health — consequences of its own. (See, e.g., The Coronavirus Mental Health Crisis Hits Home.) That the current situation was allowed to happen — as Bush ignored warnings of the “tremendous immediate threat” that became 9/11, or as Trump ignored more than a dozen urgent briefings about the pandemic and shut down the preparations Obama had built in the wake of Ebola to equip us to handle a pandemic– is beyond tragic. Beyond infuriating. Beyond criminally negligent. But what now? The most important thing, if you’re older or have an underlying condition, is to protect yourself. Here’s a good article on how to do it.
Belated Happy Mothers Day! May 13, 2020May 12, 2020 Trump didn’t build a great economy; his failure to lead destroyed one: The new Biden ad. Seth Myers — the full 15 minutes. Or start here with the call in to Fox and Friends. Almost Lincolnesque, it’s so classy. But if nothing else, start here with his Mother’s Day wish to Melania and “all the mothers watching today.” The emperor has no clothes. “A national disgrace and an international pariah.” — Colin Powell “A dangerous con man.” — Marco Rubio “A phony . . . playing the American public for suckers.” — Mitt Romney “A pathological liar.” — Ted Cruz “A complete idiot . . . graceless and divisive.” — Karl Rove “Not qualified . . . dangerous.” — 51 Former GOP National Security Officials “A race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot . . . undercutting everything we stand for.” — Lindsey Graham And can we have a quick shout-out for little Billy Barr, whom I missed the opportunity to shove into a locker, oh so many years ago? Forbes: 2,000 Former FBI And DOJ Officials Call On Barr To Resign. Putin is succeeding beyond his wildest dreams.
What’s Wrong With This Logic? May 12, 2020 Wired makes the case for reopening schools: Schools are reopening in countries around the world in response to a substantial body of evidence that children are largely unaffected by Covid-19 and minimally contagious when they get infected. Experts and policymakers abroad also acknowledge that school closures perpetuate a long list of known harms to children. Yet, oddly, the US is following a divergent path. . . . In Italy, of 30,000 COVID deaths, just two were of children under 19. Well-informed people are not worried kids will die from COVID-19, or even get very sick. It’s that they will infect vulnerable adults. As you’ll read in Wired, there’s growing evidence we may be able to breathe easier on that score, too. Even so, until there’s a vaccine or cure, kids living in close quarters with vulnerable adults — and vulnerable teachers and staff — should stay home unless the evidence becomes stronger that kids don’t transmit the virus. As for the Kawasaki-like disease now associated with COVID-19, did you know that prior to the pandemic, there were already 3,000 cases in the U.S. each year? If 3,000 weren’t sufficient reason to shut the nation’s schools, why would 3,500 be? Indeed, the enormous national attention focused on these rare but scary cases — nearly 100 so far — will surely raise parents’ and doctors’ awareness, leading to earlier diagnosis and treatment, thus reducing the sometimes long-lasting and in rare cases fatal consequences. Do you buy that logic? Can we carefully, sensibly, reopen schools and summer camps for most kids whose parents would like them to attend? While taking every reasonable precaution to protect those who are vulnerable? And what about the rest of us? This Bloomberg op-ed concludes: . . . Lockdowns were supposed to be a stopgap to let slow-moving officials get those plans in place, not a long-term solution. Epidemiologists tend to focus on what will save the most lives from a given disease at any cost, but Buckee admits that keeping everyone forced inside their homes until there’s a vaccine is not an option anyone is seriously considering. Strict shutdown measures are good for protecting public officials from appearing responsible for any deaths. They also, to some degree, shift the blame for continued infections to the public — any increase in cases can be blamed on people’s failure to comply with rules so strict that even epidemiologists and health officials have been caught breaking them. Those wanting to lift lockdowns aren’t necessarily denying the seriousness of the disease. Our safety can’t be bought by more suffering. At this point we’ve done our part, and public safety depends on what health authorities and politicians have done with the time we bought them. It’s now on them. We adults who are old and/or vulnerable are surely aware by now that COVID-19 could kill us. We should take every precaution. But we shouldn’t require a total lock down of everyone else — because what good will that do us? Something that may do us good: Yet another study suggests that BrainHQ is really good for you, whether your goal is to avoid dementia, sharpen your driving skills, win a SuperBowl, or, in this case, lessen the effects of multiple sclerosis. . . . More than 100 published studies of BrainHQ exercises have shown benefits across varied populations, including gains in standard measures of cognition (attention, speed, memory, executive function, social cognition), in standard measures of quality of life (mood, confidence and control, managing stress, health-related quality of life), and in real world activities (gait, balance, driving, everyday cognition, maintaining independence). BrainHQ is now offered, without charge to users, as a benefit by leading national and 5-star Medicare Advantage plans; by the Department of Defense for all servicemembers; and by hundreds of clinics, libraries, and communities. Consumers can also try BrainHQ for free at http://www.brainhq.com. [Full disclosure: As long-time readers know, each time someone uses BrainHQ, my vast fortune swells.]
Jersey Boys May 11, 2020May 10, 2020 I’ve seen “Jersey Boys” three times. Here it is in ten minutes. We could use a little up-tempo these days. Jersey boy Chris Christie makes the case for sensible re-opening. Not every Republican is wrong about everything. But Trump comes close. It’s beyond tragic how — having ignored dozen urgent warnings — he allowed this health-and-economic catastrophe. To date, the democracy of South Korea, which reported its first case the same day we did, has had 256 deaths. We have ten times as many every day. And a depression. As desirous as he was to bring the U.S. to its knees, Putin could never have dreamed of success like this. Take six minutes to watch how your president has led the country, day by day. (Compare that with what Joe Biden was saying as early as January 27.) Consider another three minutes to watch Al Gore’s appraisal. We desperately need to find some face-saving way for smart, well-intentioned 2016 Trump voters to say, “Well, it was worth a shot. But I’m open to trying something different.” They never have to agree he’s a vulgar incompetent pathologically lying racist narcissistic sociopathic bully, though he is; they just have to agree he’s proven himself unequal to the task.
Bill Maher Tara Reade Vladimir Putin And The New York Times May 9, 2020 Yes, it’s the indispensable New York Times. But nobody’s perfect. Watch. And then subscribe anyway . . . as well as to the Washington Post. Democracy dies in darkness.
What Number Are We? May 8, 2020 We’re Number One! With only a quarter as many people — and despite having had a lot more warning — the U.S. now has 25 times as many COVID-19 deaths as China. Three hundred times as many as South Korea. You can keep track here. Joe Biden laid it out in USA Today as early as January 27. When it comes to happiness, we’re #18. Or were, pre-pandemic. Next year’s ranking, I fear, will be lower. Have a great week-end!
Lara Trump Writes Me May 7, 2020May 6, 2020 I just got an email from Jason Lewis. With unemployment around 20% . . . 300 times as many COVID deaths here as in South Korea . . . and the National Debt up by $7 trillion, he writes: Fellow Patriot, I’m running to represent Minnesota in the U.S. Senate to fight alongside President Trump and continue on the great success we’ve had under his leadership: historic tax cuts for all Americans, new and updated trade deals that benefit our workers, making us safer at home by taking the fight to terrorists abroad, and strengthening our border. I’m honored to have President Trump’s endorsement . . . but, we need your help in order to take the fight to Chuck Schumer, Tina Smith and other radical liberals that are trying to take President Trump out. The American people are better off now thanks to President Trump! But all of the progress we’ve made over the past three years is on the line — our Republican Senate Majority hangs in the balance. We need proud conservatives like you step up and join me in the fight to save the Senate The bolding is his. The links are mine. (Note, e.g., that “radical liberal” Tina Smith is a Dartmouth MBA who worked for General Mills and then started her own business. Married to the same man for more than 30 years. Can’t get much more radical than that!) Speaking of proud conservatives, you’ve surely seen Mourning In America. But what makes it really powerful is that it was paid for by Republicans. If you’re a Republican who can’t bear to support Biden, join these Republicans and support The Lincoln Project. I actually get a ton of email from Republicans. You’d think Donald Jr. is my best friend. Here’s one Lara Trump — Eric’s wife — sent me: Friend, Every day, President Trump is up against the Fake News media and the Radical Democrats. They’re spewing LIES about him and his administration to try and trick the American People into voting for their corrupt candidates. We know that their desperate attempts to deceive voters won’t work, but that doesn’t mean we should just let them get away with it. We need to make a statement. President Trump has . . . requested a list of every donor who steps up at this critical time. He expects to see your name, friend. This goal is so important that President Trump has activated a short-term TRIPLE-MATCH on ALL CONTRIBUTIONS. He’s requested to see the next list of Deadline Donors TONIGHT, and I want to make sure he sees YOUR name at the very top. Thank you, Lara Trump Senior Advisor Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. Finally, in Trump — battling a sea of corrupt Democrats — we have a calm, selfless, stable genius who, like George Washington, can never tell a lie. Oh, Mama. And speaking of Mama, Amazon is now offering all four flavors for just $19.95 a case with free shipping when you order two or more. “Lightly sparkling lightly sweetened — rich in nutrients but, surprisingly, not the maple taste.” As a reminder: Drink ice-cold straight from the can. So good! (Ginger lemon is the best.) As a further reminder: Each sip boosts my net worth. Thank you! Have some spare gin, rum, or vodka sloshing around? Come up with the recipe for a terrific Maple Mama cocktail and I’ll submit it to the Board of Directors. Jonathan: “Care to give us another word about Borealis, now $4.20? I take it they’re being pulled down by the airlines’ woes in addition to their own concerns.” → Borealis trades an average of 800 shares a day. When it goes down, the only plausible explanation is: someone sold shares. If someone should later decide to go crazy and buy $10,000 worth — triple the average daily volume — the stock could leap 20%. Trying to analyze the stock’s movement as if it were tied to logic or world events . . . well, it’s not. We just have to wait. And wait. And wait. And wait. And wait.
Is It Me, Or Is It Getting A Little Warm? May 6, 2020May 7, 2020 Climate change, Trump has told us, is a Chinese hoax. Yet those who have begun to doubt his scientific credentials may find this, from the National Academy of Sciences, of interest: . . . the researchers found that the position of the human climate niche is projected to change more in the next 50 years than it has during the past 6,000. Such a shift would leave 1 billion to 3 billion people outside the climate conditions that have nurtured human society to date. . . . After he solves the pandemic — more bleach, perhaps? — we should enlist him to solve the climate crisis. He alone can fix it. Until then — or if God forbid Putin wins again — Regional partnerships may offer a new framework for dealing with urgent issues on which Washington has failed to lead. A friend sent this video of Wuhan China. I knew it was a large city (11 million), but I wouldn’t have expected it to look like this (thanks, Mel!): https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/Wuhan.mp4 [UPDATE: Another friend wrote in to tell me we’d been had. All these buildings are real, and in China, he said (or at least was pretty sure); but they’re not all in Wuhan. I did some Googling and found videos that suggested, yes, much of the city is impressive . . . but perhaps not as impressive as above.]