Year: 2018

Which goes without saying — no?

And yet, as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright makes clear in the New York Times, and in her new book, Fascism: A Warning, we’re taking the first steps in that direction.

On April 28, 1945 — 73 years ago — Italians hung the corpse of their former dictator Benito Mussolini upside down next to a gas station in Milan. Two days later, Adolf Hitler committed suicide in his bunker beneath the streets of war-ravaged Berlin. Fascism, it appeared, was dead.

To guard against a recurrence, the survivors of war and the Holocaust joined forces to create the United Nations, forge global financial institutions and — through the Universal Declaration of Human Rights — strengthen the rule of law. In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down and the honor roll of elected governments swelled not only in Central Europe, but also Latin America, Africa and Asia. Almost everywhere, it seemed, dictators were out and democrats were in. Freedom was ascendant.

Today, we are in a new era, testing whether the democratic banner can remain aloft amid terrorism, sectarian conflicts, vulnerable borders, rogue social media and the cynical schemes of ambitious men. The answer is not self-evident. We may be encouraged that most people in most countries still want to live freely and in peace, but there is no ignoring the storm clouds that have gathered. In fact, fascism — and the tendencies that lead toward fascism — pose a more serious threat now than at any time since the end of World War II.

Warning signs include the relentless grab for more authority by governing parties in Hungary, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey — all United States allies. The raw anger that feeds fascism is evident across the Atlantic in the growth of nativist movements opposed to the idea of a united Europe, including in Germany, where the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the principal opposition party. The danger of despotism is on display in the Russia of Vladimir Putin — invader of Ukraine, meddler in foreign democracies, accused political assassin, brazen liar and proud son of the K.G.B. Putin has just been re-elected to a new six-year term, while in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, a ruthless ideologue, is poised to triumph in sham balloting next month. In China, Xi Jinping has persuaded a docile National People’s Congress to lift the constitutional limit on his tenure in power.

Around the Mediterranean, the once bright promise of the Arab Spring has been betrayed by autocratic leaders, such as Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt (also just re-elected), who use security to justify the jailing of reporters and political opponents. Thanks to allies in Moscow and Tehran, the tyrant Bashar al-Assad retains his stranglehold over much of Syria. In Africa, the presidents who serve longest are often the most corrupt, multiplying the harm they inflict with each passing year. Meanwhile, the possibility that fascism will be accorded a fresh chance to strut around the world stage is enhanced by the volatile presidency of Donald Trump.

If freedom is to prevail over the many challenges to it, American leadership is urgently required. This was among the indelible lessons of the 20th century. But by what he has said, done and failed to do, Mr. Trump has steadily diminished America’s positive clout in global councils.

Instead of mobilizing international coalitions to take on world problems, he touts the doctrine of “every nation for itself” and has led America into isolated positions on trade, climate change and Middle East peace. Instead of engaging in creative diplomacy, he has insulted United States neighbors and allies, walked away from key international agreements, mocked multilateral organizations and stripped the State Department of its resources and role. Instead of standing up for the values of a free society, Mr. Trump, with his oft-vented scorn for democracy’s building blocks, has strengthened the hands of dictators. No longer need they fear United States criticism regarding human rights or civil liberties. On the contrary, they can and do point to Mr. Trump’s own words to justify their repressive actions.

At one time or another, Mr. Trump has attacked the judiciary, ridiculed the media, defended torture, condoned police brutality, urged supporters to rough up hecklers and — jokingly or not — equated mere policy disagreements with treason. He tried to undermine faith in America’s electoral process through a bogus advisory commission on voter integrity. He routinely vilifies federal law enforcement institutions. He libels immigrants and the countries from which they come. His words are so often at odds with the truth that they can appear ignorant, yet are in fact calculated to exacerbate religious, social and racial divisions. Overseas, rather than stand up to bullies, Mr. Trump appears to like bullies, and they are delighted to have him represent the American brand. If one were to draft a script chronicling fascism’s resurrection, the abdication of America’s moral leadership would make a credible first scene.

Equally alarming is the chance that Mr. Trump will set in motion events that neither he nor anyone else can control.

His policy toward North Korea changes by the day and might quickly return to saber-rattling should Pyongyang prove stubborn before or during talks. His threat to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement could unravel a pact that has made the world safer and could undermine America’s reputation for trustworthiness at a critical moment. His support of protectionist tariffs invites retaliation from major trading partners — creating unnecessary conflicts and putting at risk millions of export-dependent jobs. The recent purge of his national security team raises new questions about the quality of advice he will receive. John Bolton starts work in the White House on Monday.

What is to be done? First, defend the truth. A free press, for example, is not the enemy of the American people; it is the protector of the American people. Second, we must reinforce the principle that no one, not even the president, is above the law. Third, we should each do our part to energize the democratic process by registering new voters, listening respectfully to those with whom we disagree, knocking on doors for favored candidates, and ignoring the cynical counsel: “There’s nothing to be done.”

I’m 80 years old, but I can still be inspired when I see young people coming together to demand the right to study without having to wear a flak jacket.

We should also reflect on the definition of greatness. Can a nation merit that label by aligning itself with dictators and autocrats, ignoring human rights, declaring open season on the environment, and disdaining the use of diplomacy at a time when virtually every serious problem requires international cooperation?

To me, greatness goes a little deeper than how much marble we put in our hotel lobbies and whether we have a Soviet-style military parade. America at its best is a place where people from a multitude of backgrounds work together to safeguard the rights and enrich the lives of all. That’s the example we have always aspired to set and the model people around the world hunger to see. And no politician, not even one in the Oval Office, should be allowed to tarnish that dream.

Organizing a huge midterm turn-out is the first step toward reversing course.

In my view — $100 million of on-the-ground organizing will do more to produce that huge turn-out than $1 billion in TV ads.

Only about 37% of our voters (or theirs) voted in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections.  Imagine if Democrats could get that up to (say) even just 45%.  If we all pitch in, I think we will . . . and, thus, despite all the gerrymandering, and despite the good people of Wyoming having as many senators as the equally good but 65-fold more numerous people of California, flip Congress and many state legislative chambers blue.

The “organizing snowball” that the DNC facilitates, directly and through its support of the 50 state parties . . . hiring organizers now to recruit and train volunteers to recruit and train more volunteers to register voters this summer and drive voters to the polls this fall (sometimes literally drive them, if they need a lift) . . . grows biggest if it starts rolling from near the top of the hill (April) rather than the bottom (October).  That’s how snowballs work.  Click here to get ours rolling.  (Or me-mail me directly if you’re slightly vaguely “well off.”  Or have questions.)

But first: WheelTug just signed its 24th airline, Kenya, adding 32 jets to the 1,046 already in queue.  Per their press release: “WheelTug will be an excellent complement to our growing fleet and ultra-modern hub in Nairobi. It is the next stage in aviation innovation and vital for our operations.”

I know, I know: but because you bought BOREF only with money you could truly afford to lose (you promised!), I’d like to note that our prospects just seem to get better and better, even though the stock — valuing the entire company at $25 million — bears no relationship (in my view) to the opportunity.

And it’s not just airlines and non-tech types like me who are taking this seriously.  The company’s partners include Stirling Dynamics, which features WheelTug on its home screen with a link to the project description.

None of this assures success, but . . . well, it remains the best lottery ticket I’ve ever seen.  Wouldn’t it be fun if we it worked out?

And now:  It’s the oldest story in the world, but in case you have a child just reaching the age to learn it . . . compound interest is the basis of all things finance.

“Those who understand compound interest, earn it. Those who do not, pay it.”

This site retells the wonderful story of Ben Franklin leaving 1,000 pounds each to Philadelphia and Boston, and the enormous good it did over the 200-year span of his bequest.

Enjoy.

When I used to get paid absurdly well to talk about this stuff, waving my arms with youthful exuberance, one of my favorite riffs was that . . .

“If you had invested just one penny — forget a dollar — one penny! — at just two percent interest — forget five per cent or ten percent — two percent! — [slight pause, as it sank in] — the day Christ was born — [longer pause, for laughter] — how much do you think you would have today?

“Anybody?

“Anybody?  [no one ever ventured a guess]

“If you had guessed one point two five TRILLION [pause for effect] — DOLLARS! not pennies!!! — [longer pause to allow audience minds to be blown, my own arms suspended, as if holding an invisible watermelon in front of my face . . . then slowly drop left hand] — you would be LOW [right index finger jabs triumphantly on the word “low”] by a factor of a thousand times.  [Satisfied silence.  I have made my point.]

“Lesson number one: slow but steady does indeed win the race.  Fund that IRA!  Lesson number two: no wonder the Catholic church has so much money.  (And more power to it, may I be quick to add.)”

“Of course,” I would sometimes continue, “this illustration may have little practical application.  Few if any of us are going to live two thousand years.  It was Homer (not Homer Homer; Sidney Homer, author of A History of Interest Rates) who noted that, when applying these lessons to your own life, ‘the first 400 years are the hardest.'”

Yet the lessons apply nonetheless.

Thirty years having passed since I last held the invisible watermelon in front of my face, that original penny, continuing to grow at 2% a year, would by now have added yet another quadrillion dollars to your fortune.

Before taxes and inflation.

So you’d probably be broke.

Have a great weekend.

Nitty. Gritty. And wonderful.

If you want a break from politics and have time to just kick back (and love New York), read it here.  (Thanks, Brian!)

Not like Jon Lovitz or Donald Trump, to be sure.

We are not all pathological liars.*

But Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is an awesome read or listen (five hours at 1.5X speed).

We lie to pollsters, we lie to our spouses, to our teachers and friends and neighbors — to ourselves — but not so much to Google.  And page after page, this produces insights.

About sex.  (Warning: it gets kinky and graphic.)

About prejudice.  (It’s deeper than we like to think.)

About politics.  (People searching for “Trump-Clinton debate” lean differently, it turns out, from those who search for “Clinton-Trump debate.” If the Clinton team had seen how this varied from their polling results in states like Pennsylvania, they might have shifted resources and won.)

About sex.  (There’s a lot in this book about sex.  And I’m not repeating that just to get you to read it.)

And it’s not all Google-based.  You will learn how big data helped a guy crack the horse-racing code.  He literally found the secret to what makes horses winners — and made a fortune.

Not unlike the way Billy Beane cracked the ball-player code.  (There’s a lot in the book about baseball.)

It’s smart and funny and topical.

Enjoy.

*And neither is Jon Lovitz.  He just plays one on TV.

Low-income kids go off to college at twice the rate they did 40 years ago; but — stubbornly — still only about only about 1 in 5 graduates with a four-year degree.

We can do better, says Success Academy founder and CEO Eva Moskowitz.

Having already achieved astounding results in the lower grades . . .

If Success Academy were its own school district, it would rank No. 1 in New York state, outperforming the second highest by 10 percentage points in math and 3 percentage points in ELA . . . all the more significant, given that 73% of Success Academy’s testing students are economically disadvantaged.

. . . Success now hopes its high schools will become a model as well.

Eva writes:

Success Academy has spent the past four years intensively focused on
creating a rigorous and innovative high school model that fully prepares graduates from all backgrounds to thrive and triumph in college and beyond. We are proud to share this virtual experience of our high schools, which documents our approach and values, and the core components that we feel are essential to achieving excellence with a nonselective student body. You can enter classrooms, meet teachers and scholars, and explore the sophisticated academics, diverse extracurricular and summer programs, and robust advising and college preparatory programs that are designed to propel students to and through selective colleges.

Closing the college completion gap is a crucial step in achieving equity for poor children and ensuring the future strength of our country. We hope our virtual high school will inspire and support educators and public officials across our nation as they work toward this goal, and ultimately advance the national movement for educational justice.

Twenty-five thousand visitors from 47 states and 80 countries have already taken virtual tours of the Success lower grades.

Now they can tour the high schools.

The goal is not to denigrate the many already-wonderful high schools around America; let alone to denigrate the enormous numbers of wonderful teachers — or to threaten their unions.

But if schools that are not so wonderful, and students who are struggling, could do better — and at no greater taxpayer expense — don’t we owe it to our kids to take a look?

*Success got a big boost from wealthy donors to help develop and scale its model.  I’m proud to have contributed to the first school; there are now 46.  But they operate on no more taxpayer funds, per capita, than New York spends to fund its traditional public schools.

I did, Thursday — the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — which, along with the EPA, the Republicans are thrilled to see gutted.

What was Nixon thinking when he signed the Environmental Protection Agency into law?  Science/schmience — if Detroit wants weaker fuel-efficiency standards, the glaciers will just have to not melt.  Jesus has our back on climate change.

Same with consumers.

If the young woman described in this must-listen Planet Money podcast didn’t read the fine print before she borrowed $900 on-line from Golden Valley Lending, how can she complain that Golden Valley scooped $3,735 out of her bank account in less than a year to settle the debt? 

To Democrats, capitalism should be regulated.  Obama’s CFPB was pursuing Golden Valley on her behalf — and on behalf of everyone else who had been — or might be — similarly brutalized.

To Republicans, not so much.  The Trump CFPB — run by a former South Carolina congressman who introduced a bill to kill the CFPB altogether and so was Trump’s choice to lead it — dropped the case.  Golden Valley did nothing wrong and need not change its ways.  If your daughter, desperate to avoid eviction and too embarrassed to ask you to help with $900, needs someplace to turn, maybe she’ll stumble upon Golden Valley.

(Trump has also gutted the State Department, with awful long-term consequences for our standing in the world and perhaps world peace itself; and is undermining trust in the FBI and our intelligence agencies; and in the free press that undergirds democracy.  But I don’t see most Republicans in the House and Senate actively approving of those initiatives in the way they actively work to cripple the EPA and kill the CFPB.)

But first:  The RSPP suggested here earlier this month at $40 just got a buy-out offer at $45.  There’s reason to think that’s too low, so for now I’m holding on.  What sometimes happens in a situation like this is that the deal gets sweetened.  We’ll see.

And now:  You’re probably not going to see a movie a day, but MoviePass lets you — for $7 a month (“billed annually”).  Here’s a Business Insider FAQ that explains the whole deal.  And here’s the outfit’s own FAQ, along with different ways to sign up. [2019 UPDATE: It was too good to be true and went bust.  Oops.]

And now and now: what if Facebook could help you find the right suckers for your lousy product (if you had a lousy product, which you do not; this is by way of cautionary illustration).

What if?

Here’s what, from Bloomberg (thanks, Brian!):

Affiliates once had to guess what kind of person might fall for their unsophisticated cons, targeting ads by age, geography, or interests. Now Facebook does that work for them. The social network tracks who clicks on the ad and who buys the pills, then starts targeting others whom its algorithm thinks are likely to buy. Affiliates describe watching their ad campaigns lose money for a few days as Facebook gathers data through trial and error, then seeing the sales take off exponentially. “They go out and find the morons for me,” I was told by an affiliate who sells deceptively priced skin-care creams with fake endorsements from Chelsea Clinton.

Chapter 4 of my book is called “Trust No One,” because a key part of successful personal finance — and now, successful citizenship — is simply filtering out the baloney.  Not being the moron.  (Which I can say with some authority, having been the moron more than once myself.)

Who you gonna believe?

The annuity salesman heavily incentivized to sell what’s best for him?  Or the advice from a book you can get from the library for free?

The Tobacco Institute?  Or the Surgeon General?

The Washington Post?  Or the National Enquirer?

Donald Trump?  Or the FBI?

Donald Trump?  Or the two dozen women he claims are lying?

Donald Trump?  Or — on a different day — Donald Trump?  (Watch!)

The amazing story?  (Trump’s older sister says he was called “Donnie Dimwit” as a kid!)  Or Snopes? (No, actually, she did not.  The report was a spoof — yet a well-meaning bio-tech CEO passed it on to me thinking it was real.)

One of the reasons we need an FTC and an FDA and a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and an SEC — and an EPA and an OSHA — and a Snopes — and respect for science — is that not everyone trying to get your money (or your vote) is on the up and up.

Or so wrote Russian General Valery Gerasimov in 2013, the year Trump went to Moscow.

Putin is winning.

Fareed Zakaria calls him the world’s most powerful man.  Watch his 41-minute Putin documentary on CNN once it’s posted, or here in the meantime.

Bill Browder calls him the world’s richest man.

John McCain calls him “a thug, and a killer, and a murderer.” Charles Grassley calls him a “criminal.”  But there’s no one Trump admires more.

You need to know about this guy.

I wasn’t going to read Russian Roulette, about Trump, Miss Universe, Putin and the rest.  Wouldn’t I get all the highlights just watching the news?  But I have — and it’s gripping.  

We’re under attack, so you should consider reading it too.

Check out these six minutes of inspiration.  Spoiler alert: hats off to our men and women in uniform — especially ones like this.

And this: Shoot Like A Girl, by Major Mary Jennings Hegar.  “One Woman’s Dramatic Fight in Afghanistan and on the Home Front.”  I listened to it in just under 6 hours (at 1.5X speed, which was perfect for this book).

Wow.

It’s Texans like M.J. — not craven, vulgar, lying, incompetent, cowards — who make America great.  And — guess what? — she’s running for Congress.  You can watch her story in 2 minutes.  And, if you then want to help her flip Texas-31 blue, pitch in to her campaign.

But first . . .

. . . for those following Support.com, here was the basic case someone else made for buying it at $2.60 earlier this month . . . not unlike the cases I made for it at $2.37 here and at $2.16 here.  It closed at $2.79 Friday, a couple of days after issuing its latest financials.  Revenue for the quarter was up and expenses trimmed; cash stood at $49.2 million — $2.63 a share — with no debt.  So you get the business itself more or less for free (the $2.79 you pay, versus its $2.63 in cash); and if the still relatively new, smart and motivated management is able to keep building the business, it’s not hard to imagine SPRT at $5 in a year or two.  (As always: only with money you can truly afford to lose.)

Also . . .

. . . did you see Fareed Zakaria last Sunday?  Even before the truly frightening appointment of John Bolton?

If confirmed as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo will arrive at a department that has been battered by proposed budget cuts, hollowed out by resignations and vacancies, and neutered by President Trump’s impulsive and personal decision-making style. But Pompeo’s most immediate challenge will not be rebuilding the department or restoring morale. It will be dealing with an acute foreign policy crisis that is largely of the president’s own making, regarding the Iran nuclear deal.

Pompeo will have to tackle a genuine foreign challenge soon. President Trump has agreed to meet with Kim Jong-un before the end of May. This could be a promising development; yet before Trump even sits down with Kim to discuss a nuclear deal, the administration will have to discuss how to handle the preexisting deal with Tehran.

From the outset, Mike Pompeo has cheered Trump in his hard-line posturing toward Iran. Trump has announced that America will no longer abide by the Iran nuclear pact unless European leaders agree to fix the deal’s “disastrous flaws.” They seemed unwilling to endorse more than cosmetic changes and Iran for its part has flatly refused to renegotiate.

All this means that by May 12th, the United States is set to pull out of the Iran accord, which could lead Iran to do the same thing and restart its nuclear program. And this would be happening at the very same time as the summit with North Korea when the United States will surely be trying to convince North Korea of the benefits of signing a similar agreement.

Recall that Iran did not have nuclear weapons, only a program that could have led to them. Still, the deal required the Iranians to scale back significant aspects of their program, dismantling 13,000 centrifuges, giving up 98 percent of their enriched uranium and effectively shutting down their plutonium reactor at Iraq.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has cameras and inspectors in Iran at every stage of the nuclear fuel cycle from mines to labs to enrichment facilities. The IAEA attests that Tehran has in fact abided by its end of the deal.  Even Mike Pompeo himself has conceded as much.

The Iran deal is not perfect, but it has stabilized a dangerous and spiraling situation in the Middle East. Were the deal to unravel, an already similar region would get much hotter. In an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman, recently affirmed that his kingdom would go nuclear if Iran did.

The tragedy here is that this is an entirely self-inflicted crisis. There was already enough instability in the world that the administration did not need to create more. Pompeo should recognize that his job as Secretary of State will be to solve problems not produce them, and that he should preserve the Iran agreement and spend his time on North Korea.

Pompeo should take a page from his boss’ book. Trump has reversed course on issue after issue, often with little explanation. [Pompeo should, as well.]

Putin and the Kremlin are winning, destabilizing democracy here and in Europe.

China is winning, as — by exiting the Transpacific Partnership that would have lowered tariffs on our exports — we ceded economic leadership to them.  And as — by gutting our State Department and abjuring the Paris Climate Accords — we’ve created a vacuum they aggressively fill.

Corrupt, murderous autocrats are winning, as they are the only world leaders Trump admires.

Vulgarity and bigotry are winning, as hate groups — peopled by “some very fine people” — grow bolder.

So — finally — with that cheery preamble . . .

. . . here is conservative former Republican congressman Joe Scarborough in the Washington Post:

. . . Six decades of Republican overreach and corrosive causes have . . . led to the rise of Donald Trump and a foreign policy run by John Bolton, an economy guided by Larry Kudlow and a legal team led by conspiracy theorist Joseph DiGenova.

. . . Trump’s third national security adviser in 14 months [Bolton] has called for the preemptive bombing of North Korea and Iran, while defending his role in the worst U.S. foreign policy disaster since Vietnam. Of the United States’ military misadventure in Iraq, Bolton pleads innocence on all counts while shamelessly calling Barack Obama’s 2011 decision to bring U.S. troops home “the worst decision” made in that debacle.

In the foreword to the seventh edition of “The Conservative Mind,” [Russell] Kirk predicted with precision the rise of political players such as Bolton and Trump and foresaw a time when the United States would “fall into the hands of merciless ideologues or squalid oligarchs.” . . .

This was the predictable outcome of my Republican Party aligning its interests with the most cynical political operators of our time. The Atwaters, Manaforts, Gingriches and Roves leveraged a weaponized media culture that reduced politics to a secularized religion and consolidated political power and material wealth in the hands of its richest donors.

Yes, the Soviet Union is in the dustbin of history, Osama bin Laden is dead and ISIS is — at least temporarily — on its heels. But the inner chaos Kirk warned of so many years ago runs rampant in a country dominated by the bloated presence of a man who embraces dictators, vilifies the free press, corrupts religious leaders, absolves white supremacists, degrades women and continues a life’s work defined by little more than the amoral pursuit of material wealth.

Remarkably, order could be pulled from this culturally calamitous crisis if just two GOP senators had the moral courage to deprive Donald Trump of a ruling majority until he agreed to bring to heel his most destructive instincts. But even after a week of high-profile firings, attacks on Robert S. Mueller III and perplexing plaudits for Vladimir Putin, ideology continues to best idealism while American conservatism becomes even more detached from its philosophical foundations and fails yet again to confront the greatest challenges of our times.

Right?  Why can’t Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake — or Susan Collins and John McCain — or Lindsey Graham — not put country ahead of party?

Will they do so in time?

How about tomorrow?  Tomorrow would be good.

Today would be better.