Take Two Smart Phones And Call Me In The Morning June 30, 2014June 29, 2014 In the “How Exciting Is It To Be Alive Now That It’s All Coming Together Faster and Faster? (So, Can We Please Not Screw It Up?)” department — like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle near the end of the game, when it’s more and more obvious what fits with what (but your evil big sibling lurks, threatening to upend the whole thing just before you finish; because if we know anything about humans it is that even the best of us harbor a demonic impulse or two) — take eight minutes to see the smart-phone-based medicine of tomorrow. The growth in health care costs may indeed continue to bend downward even as quality and convenience improve. (All this as Republicans cut funding for the National Institutes of Health, because . . . well, why fund life-saving scientific research? How could that lead to a better life or a stronger economy? Please, for the love of God if you worship Him or the love of reason if you don’t, get everyone you know to register and vote this November, even though they usually don’t bother. Wresting the Tea Party wrench from the gears of our gridlocked government is so worth the effort.)
Intelligent Life On (Lots Of) Other Planets June 27, 2014 But first, to get you in the mood, take two minutes to watch the history of the world. It certainly drives home my point that, after 5 billion years, we have just a decade or two to get onto a trajectory that will lead to unparalleled well-being — or hurtle off the rails. (One hypothesis in the link below is that we might not be the first intelligent civilization to self-destruct.) After thousands of generations of suffering and struggling to get this far — and in the footsteps of DaVinci, Galileo, and Einstein . . . Jefferson, Franklin, and Lincoln . . . Gandhi, Mandela, and King — are we really going to look to Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber for leadership to get us across the finish line? That’s the immediate, urgent question, with profound ramifications for our children and their children and theirs and theirs and theirs. And now . . . YIKES! The universe just keeps getting bigger.* Every time you turn around, there’s another even more astounding way of expressing it — and how infinitesimally small and insignificant we are by comparison. This post (thanks, Pete Roehrig) says there are between 100 billion and 400 billion stars in our galaxy alone (Wait a minute! how can science, as advanced as it is — and with stars as big as they are — not know whether it’s 100 billion or 400 billion?) . . . . . . and “roughly an equal number of galaxies in the observable universe” (how can you be off by two or three hundred billion galaxies?) . . . . . . “which means that for every grain of sand on Earth, there are 10,000 stars out there.” And — based on assumptions it calls conservative — 100 Earth-like planets for every grain of sand in the world. And 100,000 planets with intelligent life in our one galaxy alone. My God: think of all the new languages we’d have to learn — all with words for “hot” and “cold” and “big” and “small,” but some with dozens of different words for variants of slime. So — asks the article — where are they? Why haven’t we heard from them? That, we learn, is “The Fermi Paradox.” And the possible explanations include this one (paraphrasing very loosely): No one’s out there because every time a civilization gets as close as we now are to “solving it all” — nearly free energy, nearly free communications, the ability to colonize other worlds — it hurtles off the rails. Not to put this all on Sarah Palin, but you get my drift. If you have time, read the whole post. Meanwhile, how astounding that until a geological instant ago there were no posts — no printed words. That when my grandparents were born there were no radios, TVs, or computers. And that now millions of books and articles, if you have a smart phone, are in your pocket. With pictures. In color. We are at the climax of 50,000 years’ effort. Will we live happily ever after or render our spaceship uninhabitable? Some think our best chance for success will come from lowering taxes on the wealthy, banning contraception, and allowing the free market to take care of the rest. Others disagree. I hope they vote November 4. *Literally — and at an accelerating rate. But that’s not what I mean.
Lions, Tigers, and Bears June 26, 2014June 25, 2014 SHOULD YOU RETAIN A FINANCIAL ADVISOR? It turns out that the 28-page Vanguard Research paper I summarized yesterday is available on line, for those interested in the details and underlying assumptions. (Thanks Ron Sheldon.) Does it make sense to pay a financial advisor $20,000 a year (1% of your $2 million, say)? For most people, I’d suggest spending $11.46 or $9.99 instead. But there will always be exceptions. (And before they sign on with an advisor, they might first note the blinking asterisk down to the right of this post — Ask Less — and consider the 10 Reasons he gives for why you shouldn’t retain him, either.) BEARS You were impressed by that bear Monday? Who wouldn’t be? But check out this bear — and his friends the lion and the tiger. There’s even a nice moral to their story. BULLS Former Congressman Allen West of “The Guardian Fund” is soliciting my support — $5 or more — to help impeach the President . . . so that he “may finally answer for the things he has done to destroy this country.” I decided not to give because I actually like that the stock market has doubled on the President’s watch, reaching all-time highs. To me, this suggests that capitalists think this country is not being destroyed but, rather, remains a good bet. (And that sooner or later, the Republicans will let us put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure.) And I like the fact that the $1.5 trillion deficit President Bush handed President Obama has been cut by two-thirds so that the Debt is no longer growing faster than the economy as a whole. And I like the fact that everyone now has access to affordable health care — or will, once Republican governors stop rejecting the Medicaid expansion money that’s theirs for the taking. And that health care costs have risen slower than at any time in decades and that our energy situation is so much improved and that we have three times as many women on the Supreme Court and no longer discriminate nearly so flagrantly against our LGBT friends, neighbors, coworkers, and relatives. I don’t even mind the fact that we’re not engaged in disastrous wars. You know whom I’d like to impeach? The Republican leadership that will allow practically nothing to come up for a vote, lest it pass and we move forward. Impeachment is not in the cards, but are you signed up to vote?
Are Financial Advisors Worth 300 Basis Points? June 25, 2014June 25, 2014 This 28-page March, 2014, paper — from Vanguard, no less, famous for advocating low fees — argues that they are. Sort of. “Putting A Value On Your Value” — which Vanguard makes available to the financial advisors through whom it sells a lot of Vanguard fund shares — concludes: For some investors, the value of working with an advisor is peace of mind. Although this value does not lend itself to objective quantification, it is very real nonetheless. For others, we found that working with an advisor can add “about 3%” in net returns when following the Vanguard Advisor’s framework for wealth management, particularly for taxable investors. This 3% increase in potential net returns should not be viewed as an annual value-add, it is likely to be intermittent, as some of the most significant opportunities to add value you occur during periods of market duress or euphoria when clients are tempted to abandon their well thought out investment plan. So the advisor may add 3% in some years . . . but she or he likely charges you 1% or so every year, and that cuts into your return. The 3% — 300 basis points — is figured to come from 7 things: 1. Asset Allocation. No specific value is assigned to this one, but Vanguard is right in saying it can be valuable. If you are a person of some wealth who would otherwise fail to allocate his assets intelligently among the various alternatives — stocks, bonds, real estate, and so on — an advisor can help. A sensible blend of asset classes can lower risk without lowering return; or enhance return without raising risk. 2. Cost Effective Implementation — 45 basis points. If you need an advisor to tell you to use low-cost index funds (like Vanguard’s, for example), Vanguard figures that advisor may save you 45 basis points for having done so. I think it’s way more: the typical actively managed fund, between its fees and the extra drag inherent in its active buying and selling of stocks — plus its tax inefficiency — can easily set you back 200 or 300 or 400 basis points — 2% or 3% or 4% — a year. But maybe you don’t need to pay someone to tell you that. 3. Rebalancing — 35 basis points. If you want to be allocated 60/40 between stocks and bonds (say), your portfolio will go out of whack if and as stocks rise relative to bonds. An advisor can help you do that math and remind you to rebalance your holdings from time to time. 4. “Behavioral coaching” — 150 basis points. Basically, this is getting clients not to panic and sell at the bottom (or join the stampede and buy at the top). 5. Asset Location – from 0 to 75 basis points. This has to do with deciding which assets should be in a taxable account and which in a tax-deferred account. If you only have one or the other, there’s nothing to decide. But if you have both, and are an idiot, you certainly would need someone to teach you, each year, to put your taxable bonds in tax-deferred accounts, and the assets on which you hope to have very-long-term capital gains in your taxable account. 6. Withdrawal Order – up to 70 basis points. Again, if you have both taxable and tax-deferred accounts, an advisor can explain that withdrawing money from the retirement account can entail large taxes, so suggest that you fund your spending needs from taxable accounts instead. 7. Total Return Versus Income Investing – no points assigned, but potentially valuable to a retiree trying to decide how to fund his or her spending needs. Should he put more money in high yielding stocks and bonds to produce more current income? Or should he or she keep the balance unchanged, but sell a few shares of stock to make up the income shortfall that results from today’s low interest rates? It’s an interesting paper, neither overselling nor underselling its case, and providing interesting “backup” to explain its findings and assumptions. I haven’t done it full justice here. If you’re interested, you can read the whole thing. The goal of my book is to take the place of a financial advisor for those with insufficient assets to afford one . . . (the advisor who gave me the Vanguard booklet has a $1 million minimum) . . . as well as for those who don’t want or need one. And to help those who do want to work with an advisor chose one — and work with her — with more confidence.
The Potato June 24, 2014June 23, 2014 A BEAR Have you seen this one? (Thanks, Mel.) Well, if you taught your pet to roll over, shake hands or play dead, don’t go spraining your shoulder patting yourself on the back. Look what this guy did. A POEM So much depends upon by Tom Chandler the blonde woman who drops a potato in the supermarket parking lot where it rolls beneath the 89 Dodge Ram with rust patches near the left rear fender from contact with too much road salt during the winter of 91 which was actually one of the mildest on record though the driver tends to remember it as the season he was fired from his job at the aluminum window factory where he had worked for nearly sixteen years without promotion as he shifts into reverse and backs over the potato which squishes as softly as a dream’s last breath and leaves slick asphalt for the lot boy to slip on as he pushes a train of shopping carts and sprains his lumbar vertebrae just days before he is scheduled to leave for basic training to become the cool killing machine he’s always craved but will now have to settle for someday making assistant produce manager and marrying a girl he almost loves just as the blonde woman finds herself one potato short with dinner guests ringing the doorbell. “So much depends upon” by Tom Chandler from Toy Firing Squad. © Wind Publications, 2008. A HOME A sharp 78-year-old passes this along: During a visit to my doctor, I asked him, “How do you determine whether or not an older person should be put in an old age home?” “Well,” he said, “we fill up a bathtub, then we offer a teaspoon, a teacup and a bucket to the person and ask them to empty the bathtub.” “Oh, I understand,” I said. “A normal person would use the bucket because it is bigger than the spoon or the teacup.” “No” he said. “A normal person would pull the plug. Do you want a bed near the window?” Bah-DUM-bum.
An Iraqi’s Perspective June 23, 2014June 22, 2014 From a piece worth reading in its entirety on Iraq (thanks, Tym): Holland: How do you respond to Americans who say, “Well, Sunni and Shia, they hate each other — it’s an ancient blood hatred and we have nothing to do with that. It’s not our fault that they’re at one another’s throats.” Jarrar: You can say this about many other sects and religions whether they are Christian or Muslim or whatever. But there is a political dimension to these historical differences. Obviously, there are theological differences as well as political and social differences. But the fact is that Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites managed to live in the same country for a long time without killing each other, and they lived in the same neighborhoods. They intermarried — I am half Sunni and half Shiite. I am one of many Iraqis who was born into these mixed marriages. The US destroyed that Iraqi national identity and replaced it with sectarian and ethnic identities after 2003. Sect wasn’t really a part of the national consciousness. I was born in Iraq and I’d never in my life been asked if I was a Sunni or a Shiite. And I didn’t know who among my relatives or neighbors or co-workers or colleagues at school were Sunnis or Shiites, because it wasn’t an issue. It’s not that people were tolerant toward each other — they weren’t aware of sectarian backgrounds. It’s similar to some areas in the US where you don’t necessarily know what Christian sect your friends belong to. You might know, or you might not know. That was before the US intervention. The US destroyed that Iraqi national identity and replaced it with sectarian and ethnic identities after 2003. I don’t think this is something that many Iraqis argue about, because you can trace the beginning of this sectarian strife that is destroying the country, and it clearly began with the US invasion and occupation. That’s not to say that Iraqis don’t have agency over their own country and lives – they could and should have worked on bridging the gaps. But it’s not easy to fix these huge political and religious differences when the situation is as complicated as Iraq — and when the US is funding and training one side of this conflict with tens of billions of dollars, it’s not easy to reach a point of national healing, where Iraqis work together and live in peace. We made so many mistakes in Iraq — invading in the first place, of course; not establishing order right away; protecting only the oil ministry from looters; disbanding the army . . . it was all so simpleminded, with such disastrous consequences, so many millions of wrecked lives and our own wrecked national balance sheet — and now Dick Cheney, who gave is this war, is chastisinging us for not exerting more military force around the world and relying too much on diplomacy and nuanced solutions? Really? The Kerry line, that the Bush team “rushed to war without a plan to win the peace,” rings so painfully true. Lots of testosterone — they’re great at that — but so little wisdom, such awful consequences.
Guess Who Came To Dinner June 20, 2014June 21, 2014 So the President came to New York Tuesday and one of his stops elicited this fundraising appeal from the American Family Association: Nine Statements by Obama Yesterday Made a Mockery of God’s Word June 18, 2014 Friend, Yesterday, President Barack Obama spoke at an LGBT fundraiser in New York City. You can watch or read the entire speech here. I thought you might like to know what he said, so here are a few excerpts from the transcript of his speech: – The day that the Supreme Court issued its ruling, United States v. Windsor, was a great day for America. – So Pride Month is a time for celebration, and this year we’ve got a lot to celebrate. If you think about everything that’s happened in the last 12 months, it is remarkable. In nine more states you’re now free to marry the person you love – that includes my two home states of Hawaii and Illinois. The NFL drafted its first openly gay player. The U.S. Postal Service made history by putting an openly gay person on a stamp – the late, great Harvey Milk smiling from ear to ear. – When I took office, only two states had marriage equality. Today, 19 states and the District of Columbia do. – But because of your help, we’ve been able to do more to protect the rights of lesbian and gay, and bisexual and transgender Americans than any administration in history. – We repealed “don’t ask, don’t tell,” because no one should have to hide who you love to serve the country we love. – I lifted the 22-year ban on people with HIV traveling to the U.S. – Before I took office, only one openly gay judge had been confirmed in history. We have 10 more. – …we stopped defending the so-called Defense of Marriage Act in the courts and argued alongside Edie and Robbie before the highest court in the land. – I’ve directed my staff to prepare for my signature, an executive order prohibiting discrimination by federal contractors on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. My friend, our nation is in deep trouble under President Obama and liberals in Congress…are you registered to vote in upcoming elections? [And please give us money . . .] I was actually at that dinner, and see it differently. (Except for the part about hoping you are registered to vote.) Could God really oppose gay couples committing to love and care for each other in civil marriage? Could She really favor workplace discrimination — firing your son or daughter, who’s doing a good job, just because he or she happens to have been created gay? (And by Whom, I wonder?) Does the American Family Association itself make a mockery of God’s word by not stoning non-virgin brides to death? And does the American Family Association exhort slaves to “obey thy masters?” You’re not seriously going to tell me that no one at the American Family Association has ever eaten at Red Lobster or worn a cotton polyester blend — both abominations in the eyes of the Lord. Fortunately, most people see the goodness in the Bible while skipping over parts that, with thousands of years’ hindsight, no longer make ethical sense — like slavery or denying women the vote or jailing someone like Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas for marrying a white woman (even though he would deny me the right to marry the person I love). To most of you, this is old news. So enough of that. Let me tell you about the DNC’s 15th Annual LGBT Dinner. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Great night. Sold out. The President? AWESOME. Here’s the transcript — helpful, because parts were hard to hear over all the cheering. A SMALL SAMPLE: . . . what’s been remarkable is the way Americans of all age groups are increasingly embracing marriage equality. They understand love is love. And for many people whose minds have changed, it was love that did it — love for the child or the grandchild, or the friend or the coworker who sat down one day and held their hands and took a deep breath and said, I’m gay. Almost everybody in this room was that child or grandchild or friend or coworker at some point. And you may not have known it at the time — it may have seemed like an individual act — but in those moments when you summoned that courage and reached out with that hopeful love, you were doing it for everybody. And that’s why I’m here tonight, to say thank you for helping make America more just and more compassionate. . . . THE HIGHLIGHTS: It was the world’s earliest dinner, but once you got in out of the sun, it felt like dinner. With no windows or clocks but free drinks, all Gotham Hall lacked were roulette tables. And there were SO many highlights: > The President, of course, in a class by himself. What an amazing 17 minutes those were. But also . . . > Our 500 guests, every one a star. > Including Sia, a star in the conventional, she’s-sold-millions-of-records, sense. I had never heard of her. But in the weeks leading up to the dinner I asked my younger friends, all of whom had, including one who replied, “Dude — what do you think we’ve been listening to for the last 20 minutes?” Sia sang four really beautiful songs. > Our emcee, Modern Family’s Jesse Tyler Fergusson — direct from Missoula, Montana, with a few stops and Emmy nominations along the way. > Beauty queen Geena Rocero, whose Ted Talk this past March has been viewed 2 million times. (It’s cool to see straight guys ogling her bikini shot and then learning she was assigned “boy” at birth.) > A video celebrating LGBT progress . . . beginning pre-Harvey Milk, even, and running up to last month’s unveiling of the Harvey Milk first-class forever stamp. “You gotta give ‘em hope,” Harvey said – and, boy, how that hope has, at long last, turned out to have been justified. > A video greeting from George Takei, previously of the U.S.S. Enterprise, now about to star in Allegiance. > A sentence read from this year’s Pride Proclamation – the President’s sixth – and . . . in a remarkable show of bipartisan sportsmanship . . . the entire text of all the Republican pride proclamations read aloud – all of them! – which took no time at all. Literally. > A couple who’d flown up from Dallas to get married at the Central Park Reservoir hours earlier and bought seats for their wedding party. (The President proposed a toast to their happiness.) > A 14-year-old from North Carolina who’d been on the brink of taking his own life, so despised had religious bigots made him feel, until he read Crisis. And here he and his mom got to see a room full of 500 mostly happy, mostly successful, mostly LGBT people and hear that speech. > Contributors and attendees like Robbie Kaplan and Edie Windsor, who introduced the President . . . and Media Matters’ David Brock, Country singer Chely Wright and her wife Lauren, and so many more. My semi-brother-in-law the Catholic priest! Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum! Gay Muslim filmmaker Parvez Sharma and his husband Dan! > Even Barbra Streisand showed up! Via Skype. In an – imagined – call to “Ugly Betty” star Michael Urie, who’s been channeling her in Buyer and Cellar these past 15 months, playing both in New York and now out on tour (yes: I’m an investor). As written for the occasion by the great Jonathan Tolins (who actually paid to come to the dinner as well). Michael plays both Barbra and himself. A snippet: BARBRA Is it on? Am I Skyping? MICHAEL Yes! Hello, Barbra! It’s so great to finally meet you! You look fantastic! BARBRA I’d better, I’ve been adjusting the lighting for four hours. I love Skype. It’s so much better than having to go anywhere and see people. I could be wearing anything below the waist. I could be doing the Superman album cover and you’d never know. (She LAUGHS.) So, you’re the actor who’s been me for the last year. It’s not so easy, is it? MICHAEL No, it’s a challenge. I’m just so glad to find out you’re not angry about the play. BARBRA Well, I’ve mellowed a bit, ever since Apple went back over 600. And then last week, it split, seven for the price of one! Whoever heard of something like that? It’s like the Osmonds. MICHAEL Yeah, it’s great. So, what made you decide to Skype me now? BARBRA I got the e-mail that said you’ll be at this LGBT… QRSTUV something-something dinner. I get so many e-mails from the DNC. Do they really think I’m going to give more just so I can meet James Taylor? And on it went from there. Michael and Jonathan (and Barbra) are amazing. I’m proud to say that OUR dinner co-chairs Tuesday night were gay AND lesbian AND trans . . . which is not the case at the annual Republican National Committee LGBT dinner. Oh wait – they’ve never HAD one. For as long as we’ve been fighting for equality, it’s Democrats who’ve been voting with us, Republicans who’ve been voting against. And lately, Republicans have been voting against everything else as well. Which is a nightmare, because as a nation — and a species — we have just a couple of decades to meet some enormous challenges. If we do, we’re on the cusp of astounding well-being; if we don’t, we’re at risk of hurtling off the rails. Success isn’t guaranteed no matter who’s in charge, but my money’s on the party that “believes in” science. And inclusion. And diplomacy. And shared responsibility. And constructive compromise. This is serious stuff, and THEIR only solution is to outlaw abortion and lower my taxes. Tuesday’s dinner helped fund the turn-out to hold the Senate, retake the House, flip red states blue, and pave the way for 2016. If you couldn’t make it: I’m supposed to charge you double! But I will waive that. Just click here to do the best you can. We need all hands on deck to win. Have a great weekend.
It Must Be A Holiday Somewhere June 19, 2014June 18, 2014 So I’m taking the day off in celebration. Self-employment has its perks. Your subscription has been extended accordingly.
ETRM June 18, 2014 Sorry: just an update today . . . Guru writes of yesterday’s FDA panel: “The important vote on ETRM was 6 yes, 2 no, 1 abstain that benefit outweighs risk. That’s what we wanted. On safety, the vote was 8 yes, 1 no. On efficacy, however, the vote was 4 yes, 5 no. Yet the vote earlier in the day on whether the 18 month data supported efficacy was 9 yes 0 no. Doctors who earlier in the day had voted ‘yes’ that the 12- and 18-month data showed efficacy voted ‘no’ on the official ‘efficacy’ vote. Go figure. The FDA will approve their device in my opinion.” Those of us who bought shares with money we truly can afford to lose await the decision — and the market’s reaction — with nervous anticipation. Stay tuned.
2014: A Good Year June 17, 2014June 17, 2014 There’s so much the President has accomplished . . . Paul Krugman hits two highlights in a column that begins: . . . [T]hese days much of the commentary you see on the Obama administration — and a lot of the reporting too — emphasizes the negative: the contrast between the extravagant hopes of 2008 and the prosaic realities of political trench warfare, the troubles at the Department of Veterans Affairs, the mess in Iraq, and so on. The accepted thing, it seems, is to portray Mr. Obama as floundering, his presidency as troubled if not failed. But this is all wrong. You should judge leaders by their achievements, not their press, and in terms of policy substance Mr. Obama is having a seriously good year. In fact, there’s a very good chance that 2014 will go down in the record books as one of those years when America took a major turn in the right direction. . . . If you don’t mind feeling a little better about things, read the whole thing: Krugman’s take on health care and climate change. Which is to say, the health of our people and our planet. (Meanwhile, have you noticed that housing prices have stabilized and the stock market’s at record highs? That the debt’s stopped growing relative to the economy as the deficit continues to fall? That America beat Ghana in the World Cup? Hey, listen!)