Numbers (Including 1 for the President) April 14, 2004February 25, 2017 4868 Tomorrow is ‘tax day.’ If, like the President or Vice President, your 2003 income was $700,000 or $800,000, it is a day to celebrate your tax savings. There are a lot of tough questions to ask about the war, but one great thing about it – at least for the rich – is that it’s free. And then some. It’s not too late to fund your Roth IRA for 2003 – or even to set one up. You have one more day. Hie on down to your local bank. It’s also not too late to file Form 4868 for an automatic tax-day extension to August 16. Let it never be said this site failed to provide you with an excuse to procrastinate. 13N6705 Bob Fyfe: ‘After reading your comment yesterday, I wondered how difficult it would be to order your Thinkpad part away from IBM. I found this website within a few seconds using a Google search on 13N6705. The company is Advanced Computer Services. And although I know nothing about them, it turns out that they have the part in stock, it’s only $175 (to IBM’s $280), they don’t charge sales tax outside of Ohio (you’d have to take care of that yourself with your state), and ground shipping is $8-12 depending on your location (other options are available).’ ☞ Now, why didn’t I think of that? Googling a part number – for anything, by any manufacturer – very often snaps it right up onto your screen, sometimes at an advantageous price. (Here‘s another place I could have found it, a site apparently dedicated to ThinkPads.) Alan Questell found it for $154 here on eBay. ‘But scroll down the page,’ he advises, ‘because you need to buy it as a 2nd hard drive. I’d suggest the 60GB Travelstar for a little more money…it’s faster (7200 rpm vs. 5400). By the way, most laptops now use 2.5 inch drives, so the actual hard drives are interchangeable; it’s the caddy (that you slide into the computer) that’s different. You can find those separately on eBay and put it together yourself or just find someone who’s selling the whole unit.’ 0 This was the number of mistakes President Bush was able to think of at his press conference last night when asked to name the worst one he had made during his presidency. He did acknowledge that he must have made some – he was not trying to say he had not – just that, under this pressure, and not having covered the question in rehearsal, he couldn’t come up with one on the spur of the moment. One can agree with much of what the President said about Iraq (or not) and still feel we might have done this – if we truly had to do it – better. Did we have to go into Iraq more or less timed for the mid-term election, because of an ‘imminent threat?’ No. Did we have to go in without adequate plans and resources? No. Might we have done far more after the January 7, 2001 briefing – long before the famous August 6 PDB – at which the President- and Vice-President elect were told that there was a man named Osama Bin Laden who represented a ‘tremendous’ and ‘immediate’ threat to the United States? Yes! If you had been 13 days from assuming responsibility for the safety of your nation, and been told in the key, formal, about-to-hand-off-power, pre-Inaugural briefing by the head of the CIA, that your country faced a “tremendous,” “immediate” threat, would you have ignored it and focused, instead, on tax cuts and star wars missile defense and plans to invade Iraq? (Could this have qualified as that elusive mistake the President was trying in vain to conjure up last night?) My point is that you don’t have to favor abandoning Iraq to favor ‘1’ as the number of terms you would like to employ this man as your President.
Watch Out Dell – Here Comes IBM! April 13, 2004March 25, 2012 We are frequently told that government is good for nothing and that only private industry – or the charity that spends the first 30 cents of every dollar just raising every dollar – is the only efficient way to get anything done. I’ve always felt this is unfair; that government does some things tolerably well, and that even some of our most esteemed and profitable private and nonprofit enterprises can have their inefficiencies. I am reminded of this virtually any time I try to order anything from IBM. IBM is, let us acknowledge, a spectacular human asset. My ThinkPads are superb. The fundamental, quantum-level breakthroughs IBM comes up with – not least the eraser-head pointing device in the middle of my keyboard – would blow me away if I were bright enough to understand them. Even what little I do understand blows me away. But then I try to order something, certain that by NOW, surely, they will have gotten all this worked out – I started doing this in 1984, so they’ve had 20 years – and, well, you be the judge. I have two ThinkPad T30s. This is not the latest model, to be sure, but not a relic, either. Millions of them have been sold. I wanted another hard drive to go in the ‘swappable bay’ – that place you can put in a CD or DVD or extra hard drive. I have to think this is not such an esoteric request. I’m not looking for the Hindi instruction manual for a discontinued 1986 PCjr – just another hard drive for my ThinkPad. I go to IBM on-line, click through to Notebook stuff, and it offers to detect my model ‘type’ – promising me that it will not share this information with anyone – so I click OK and it gives me an error message. Can’t detect my model type. It gives me a place to enter it manually, so I do – 2366-XXG – but it won’t accept that, and keeps offering to show me how to find the model type. But 2366-XXG really is it, which I know for two reasons (and, yes, I tried it with and without the hyphen, upper case and lower case). First, I know it’s the correct model type because it follows the letters-digits format given as an example. Second, I know it’s the correct model type because it is embossed on the bottom of the ThinkPad directly to the right of the word TYPE. OK, so you can’t order a hard drive for your ThinkPad on-line from IBM Direct. I call 800-772-2227, the number I’ve used for years, and get a recording that it has been changed to 800-IBM-SERV. After some not too onerous branching and a short wait time I get a sales guy who finds the 40 GB hard drive that will work with my ThinkPad T30 and gives me the Part Number – which I do not want, I just want to buy it – and a phone number (800-388-7080) to call to find out the price and place my order. This being the new, consumer-friendly IBM, with 20 years improvements under its belt, the rep offered to connect me himself, advising me to select options 2, 1 and 1 and then tell the human I would reach the Part Number I wanted, which was #08K9683. I get connected quickly, reach a human, convey the desired Part Number and am told I will be connected to someone in sales. After a short wait, I get a sales rep and tell her I would like to order part #08K9683. That F.R.U. has been discontinued, she explains. It is now #13N6705. But it is out of stock. I ask how this is possible. ThinkPad T30s have been around a long time, there is no sudden surge in demand for them or for their accessories . . . what business is IBM in? She was sympathetic and explained that their system would check all IBM venders worldwide to find one, and it generally would take no more than two or three weeks . . . oh, wait . . . there appears to be one at a vender in Hong Kong, so it may be just a week or two. Once it arrives stateside, I have a choice of shipping options. It’s important we discuss this, because one costs $1 more than the other. A dollar is at stake, so we are taking time to discuss whether I prefer to save time or save money. After I make up my mind, she says I should understand that whether the drive that arrives is new or refurbished, it will cost $280 plus the shipping (new and used cost the same?), and I will have 90 days to return it if it’s the wrong part or it’s defective. I will be charged 10% sales tax, I am told, because this division of IBM lacks the capacity to calculate individual state sales taxes, but – not to worry – that will be adjusted down to the actual sales tax by an IBM department that can. At this point, being someone who wants IBM to succeed, I ask if I can offer her a suggestion to put in the suggestion box. She says they don’t have a suggestion box. ‘Aha!’ I say, with some enthusiasm. ‘Then, I have two suggestions.’ She laughs – she is very nice – and I would guess there is a 65% chance that the part will come as promised and be compatible with my ThinkPad and work fine. If not, I’ll probably just throw it out, because even for $314.05 (I do have the capacity to calculate sales tax), it probably will not be worth the effort to get an R.M.A. for my F.R.U. and call U.P.S. . . . there’s just not time in the day. But I am an optimist. It may well all work out just fine. Dell must be quaking in its little $90 billion boots.
Hole In One April 12, 2004February 25, 2017 CALL ME TIGER I want you to know that I went and played golf for the first time in many, many years the other day – and to the astonishment of all around me, got a hole in one with a 27-foot drive. Later, I climbed the rock wall, won a couple of games of Foosball and Knock Hockey, and even held my own at my first-ever laser tag. As you can tell, I am quite pleased with myself, though a slavish devotion to the truth requires me to acknowledge that I did not win anything, overall. (On one hole, it took me 9 strokes to go 30 feet.) But I had the taste of victory, and with just a little practice am persuaded I could regain the Foosball calluses and killer caroms that, 35 years ago, made me king. (My previous golf outing, as some of you may recall, was with Warren Buffett. Only dedicated duffers need read that tale.) THE GRAPHIC This is either me climbing the aforesaid rock wall, or else me trying to climb out of the pit I fell into by posting the previous graphic – no point stirring things up by reminding you what it was – about which many of you had strong opinions on both sides. <graphic missing> MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH If I can take time off to climb rocks, I can hardly begrudge others their down time. Still . . . This, from Josh Marshall’s blog: From a Friday Washington Post story on the degenerating situation in Iraq … ‘This is Bush’s 33rd visit to his ranch since becoming president. He has spent all or part of 233 days on his Texas ranch since taking office, according to a tally by CBS News. Adding his 78 visits to Camp David and his five visits to Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush has spent all or part of 500 days in office at one of his three retreats, or more than 40 percent of his presidency.’ Vacation gibes are usually unfair. But with the situation in Iraq so critical, shouldn’t the president be at the White House? It’s a full-time job, comes with a decent salary. – Josh Marshall Tomorrow: Watch Out, Dell – Here Comes IBM!
Condo, Condi, and More April 8, 2004January 21, 2017 R.M.N.-d YOU OF ANYONE? Bob Neinast: ‘Yesterday, you quoted Jack Spadaro saying: ‘I’ve been in government since Richard Nixon. I’ve been through the Reagan administration, Carter and Clinton. I’ve never seen anything like this.’ You absolutely positively have to get and read John Dean’s just-published Worse Than Watergate.’ ☞ MUCH worse. But Watergate didn’t keep Nixon from being reelected. It takes a long time for people to catch on. Spread the word. REAL ESTATE Several of you wanted to know where Georgia’s dark, 900-square-foot condo was, so I sent off for more background: Georgia Wong: ‘My condo was in Larkspur, CA, about 30 minutes north of San Francisco, across the Golden Gate Bridge. I bought it for $183K in the early 1990s. The former owners had paid $214K two years prior and were forced to sell. [WAIT! YOU MEAN YOU CAN LOSE MONEY ON REAL ESTATE? IS THAT EVEN LEGAL??? – A.T., confused.] I sold it for $327K, however I didn’t make a gob of money. Shortly after I bought the unit, I was assessed about $35K in major improvements (new roof, siding, garage repaving). Also, over the years I dipped into the equity here and there to pay off bills (auto loan, credit cards). [WELL, THAT WAS NOT A COST OF OWNING THE CONDO, THAT WAS TAKING OUT EQUITY TO PAY OFF OTHER DEBT. BUT IN ADDITION TO THE $35,000 ASSESSMENT, THERE WERE THE $20K+ CLOSING COSTS OF THE SALE.] ‘However, I did net enough from the sale to make a down payment on a real house in Austin (2000 sq. ft.) and buy new appliances. Waiting a year I could have made another $80K, but I’m not complaining. I was RELIEVED I sold when I did because the unit didn’t show well despite modest improvements I made (retiling the kitchen, etc.). The reality was that my condo was small, a lower unit with a tiny kitchen and dark. I only got two offers and fell to my knees in gratitude when the sale closed. ‘Want to hear more real estate bizarreness? My best friend sold her parents’ 35-year-old 3 br/2 ba tract house [NOTE TO THOSE LISTENING ON TAPE: THIS WAS A TRACT HOUSE, NOT A CRACK HOUSE] in Mill Valley last year for $750K. We’re talking burnt orange shag carpets, walnut veneer paneling in the family room, a dinky kitchen with fake linoleum floors and sparkly, popcorn ceilings. The couple who bought it gutted it and are doing a MAJOR remodel. Still, they feel that at $750K they got a deal!’ [NOTE TO THOSE WONDERING HOW TO LISTEN ON TAPE: GET YOUR CHILD TO READ THIS INTO A TAPE RECORDER EACH MORNING BEFORE SCHOOL.] SO WHY DON’T THEY RESIGN? Dennis Soohoo: ‘Besides not resigning or apologizing, Bush has the arrogance to flaunt their mistakes by making jokes at the press dinner about not finding weapons of mass destruction, as more and more die.’ IN THEIR OWN WORDS A few quotes from Take Them at Their Words: ‘Why should we hear about body bags and deaths and how many, what day it’s gonna happen? It’s not relevant. So why should I waste my beautiful mind on something like that?’ – Barbara Bush on ‘Good Morning America’ the day before the Iraq war started, The New York Times, January 13, 2003 ‘My biggest fear is going to be going to the funeral of some young Iowa man or woman who dies in this conflict and having their mother or father come up to me and ask whether or not their son or daughter died for America, or died to save Bill Clinton’s presidency. I don’t know what I would say to those grieving parents. For that reason I believe the President must resign immediately.’ – Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA), Congressional Record, December 18, 1998 ‘Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is.’ – George W. Bush, discussing Kosovo, Houston Chronicle, April 9, 1999 ‘I’m the commander – see, I don’t need to explain – I don’t need to explain why I say things. That’s the interesting thing about being the President. Maybe somebody needs to explain to me why they say something, but I don’t feel like I owe anybody an explanation.’ – George W. Bush, Washington Post, November 19, 2002 CONDI RICE – POINT BY POINT If you’d like a little warm-up to Dr. Rice’s testimony today, click here.
Real Estate – Part 2 April 7, 2004February 25, 2017 But first . . . DO YOU SENSE A PATTERN HERE? For those who missed 60 Minutes Sunday, the segment began: Who is Jack Spadaro? He’s a man who’s devoted his life to the safety of miners and the safety of people who live near mines. He’s an engineer, who until recently was head of the National Mine Health and Safety Academy (MSHA), a branch of the Department of Labor, which trains mining inspectors. But he lost that job last year, after he blew the whistle on what he called a whitewash by the Bush administration of an investigation into a major environmental disaster. Correspondent Bob Simon reports. ‘I had never seen anything so corrupt and lawless in my entire career as what I saw regarding interference with a federal investigation of the most serious environmental disaster in the history of the Eastern United States,’ says Spadaro. ‘I’ve been in government since Richard Nixon. I’ve been through the Reagan administration, Carter and Clinton. I’ve never seen anything like this.’ What he’s talking about is what he calls a government cover-up of an investigation into a disaster 25 times the size of the Exxon Valdez spill. SO WHY DON’T THEY RESIGN? Columnist Richard Cohen in yesterday’s Washington Post (in small part): In his questioning of Rumsfeld, the nimble [PBS anchor Jim] Lehrer brought up Lord Carrington, the British defense minister at the time Argentina seized the Falkland Islands. Carrington admitted he had underestimated the threat and his resignation was therefore in order. If Rumsfeld had applied that rule to himself, he would be thrice gone — once for Sept. 11, 2001; once for the absence of WMD in Iraq; and once more for not having enough troops in Iraq. If he were his own subordinate, he would fire himself. But from the president on down, no one in this administration ever admits a mistake or concedes having been wrong. . . . In another country, some officials would quit in shame. In this one they can’t even quit being smug. REAL ESTATE Georgia Wong: ‘I sold my 30-year-old condo (dark, no view, no garage or storage space, 900 sq. ft.) at the end of 2002 for $327K. The man I sold it to just sold it for $405K! How surreal is that? According to my former neighbor (I moved to Austin, Texas), someone she knew just snapped up a similar unit for $500K with the idea of “flipping” it in a year for a profit. Crazy!!!’ ☞ And not likely to end well. Kevin: ‘Why is it a problem for a dual-income family earning $100,000 to own an $800K home? Assuming the couple has been in the house a long time, the real estate appreciation has added true wealth, has it not? I have a friend there who is in a $700K house with a ‘small’ mortgage of $1,500/month. So, a ratio of 8 or 10 to 1 does not necessarily mean that the owner is mortgaged to the hilt.’ ☞ True. But real estate prices are set by people who are buying and selling – not people sitting pat with no plans to move. So here I am in my dark, parking less $500K 900-foot condo (to take Georgia’s example), and I decide I want to sell (or I have to sell), and all I need is someone who can afford the mortgage and property taxes and pay me enough to cover the $500K I paid plus the costs of selling and moving (figure 10% or so) . . . never mind any thought of profit . . . $550,000. In Miami, the property tax on a $550,000 condo would be about $15,000, and a 6% mortgage – should rates notch back up a bit – might add another $25,000 or $30,000 (depending on the size of the down payment) – so there’d be a pre-tax cost of $40,000 or $45,000 to own the place . . . plus something for utilities, upkeep and repairs. (Roofs do not come cheap.) How easy would it be for a family earning $70,000, say, to afford that dark 900-foot condo (let alone your friend’s $700K house)? The seller might have to cut the price to make a sale. And it is of cut prices that real estate corrections are made. Your friend, not having to move, might not care. He bought the place for $90,000, saw it rise to $700,00, and now, in 2006, it has fallen back to $525,000. (I’m just making all this up, but still.) No big whoop for him. But a whoop-and-a-half for someone down the block who bought a similar house for $700K in 2004 – triply so if now he needs to sell.
Real Estate April 6, 2004February 25, 2017 U.S. REAL ESTATE It’s worth reading the whole thing, but here is an excerpt from The Washington Monthly: Why home prices are about to plummet- and take the recovery with them . . . Truth is, in most of the country there’s no housing bubble. Perhaps the crucial ratio from which economists determine whether housing markets are out of whack is the ratio of home prices to annual income. In most of the country, it is modest, 2.4:1 in Wisconsin, 2.2:1 in Kentucky, 2.9:1 in Illinois. Only in about 20 metro areas, mostly located in eight states, does the relationship of home price to income defy logic. The bad news is that those areas contain roughly half the housing wealth of the country. In California, the price of a home stands at 8.3 times the annual family income of its occupants; in Massachusetts, the ratio is 5.9:1; in Hawaii, a stunning, 10.1:1. To some extent, there are sound and basic economic reasons for this anomaly: supply and demand. Salaries in these areas have been going up faster than in the nation as a whole. The other is supply: These metro areas are “built out,” with zoning ordinances that limit the ability of developers to add new homes. But at some point, incomes simply can’t sustain the prices. That point has now been reached. In California, a middle-class family with two earners each making $50,000 a year now owns, on average, an $830,000 home. In the late 80s, the last time these eight states saw price-to-income ratios this high, the real estate market collapsed. MID-EAST REAL ESTATE Tom Reingold: ‘Friday’s graphic would have made its point just as well if it had been accurate.’ Alan Flippen: ‘Turkey, Iran and everything north and east of them are not Arab countries (though they are Muslim). Though in fairness, the graphic left out Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, which are part-Arab, as well as Muslim.’ Scott Nicol: ‘Here’s a more accurate map.’ Steven Schatz: ‘The only change I would make is to the caption, which should be, ‘End the Unjust Jewish Occupation of Moslem Land.’ (My wife, being Turkish by birth, has been very helpful to my understanding of all this.)’ Tom O’Malley: ‘Hmm. So, by that logic, would it be okay if I moved into your dining room? It’s only a small part of your house. I have total, unending sympathy for the horrors the Jewish people have endured. And yes, what is now Israel is their homeland. But I think that graphic ignores much of the reality of the situation. Does being less than 100% pro-Zionist make one anti-Semitic? I don’t think so. I hope not.’ Srikanth: ‘A slice of California as a Jewish homeland in 1948 would have been a perfect gift as well. Would have been interesting to see the American reaction to that. Ever wondered why was not a piece of Poland/Germany chosen for the homeland while they were being sliced up between the superpowers? (After all, that’s where the maximum atrocities against Jews were committed, not Palestine.) Anyway, might rules…until the next turn of the tide.’ John Seiffer: ‘A graphic like this has a polarizing effect. This is great for preaching to the converted but not so great at changing minds.’ ☞ Polarize, I do not want to do.
Yawning Penguins Let Al-Qaeda Metastasize April 5, 2004February 25, 2017 PENGUINS Steven Martin: ‘I thought you were better than that. My first swing was 230 and my second was 290.’ ☞ The ice was probably a little wetter / more slippery when you tried it. YAWNING KIID ‘Let the record show that Democrats can be just as boring as Republicans,’ I wrote, ‘so I do not suggest that there is any larger point here.’ Of course, there was a larger point, and the indispensable Paul Krugman made it. THEY’RE USING EUROs NOW? WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN? George Hamlett: ‘You write . . . ‘how the ruble, mark and rupee will fare relative to each other over the same period . . .’ ☞ I skip one stinking issue of the Economist and look what I miss. Next you’ll be telling me the Wall’s come down. IT’S NOT JUST CLARKE (AND O’NEILL AND SHINSEKI AND WILSON) I expect we will get Osama very soon now. But is it unpatriotic to wonder how much more effective it might have been to get him two years ago? To quote from one just-posted report: In March 2002, six months after President Bush announced the war on terror, an unusual military decision was made: the military’s specialists hunting for Osama bin Laden were reassigned. According to Flynt Leverett, who was serving in the National Security Council at the time, the Bush administration pulled off Arabic-speaking Special Forces and CIA officers from the hunt and gave them a new assignment: Iraq. Leverett told the Washington Post last week, “[Richard] Clarke’s critique of administration decision-making and how it did not balance the imperative of finishing the job against al Qaeda versus what they wanted to do in Iraq is absolutely on the money.” He went on to say “We took the people out who could have caught them. But even if we get bin Laden or Zawahiri now, it is two years too late. Al Qaeda is a very different organization now. It has had time to adapt. The administration should have finished this job. ☞ What’s done is done. It’s very good that Saddam is gone. (Whether it was worth the cost in lives, money, credibility and goodwill is an open question – another being whether the same result could have been achieved at much less cost.) But I would remind those who have not yet seen this little movie that our history with Saddam is a little more complicated than most people realize. He was a monster . . . but for much of his career, he was our monster. We may even have given him the green light to invade Kuwait. Tomorrow: Turks Are Not Arabs – and an Important Perspective on Real Estate
Closed-End Funds and a Graphic April 2, 2004February 27, 2017 Do you remember the thrill you felt (if you are of a certain age) when sound first came to the movies? Talkies! Or when color first came to TV? Disney! Well, thanks to the genius of my web master, Marc Fest, this column may from time to time now show a graphic. But first three follow-ups . . . 1. THE YAWNING KID Anyone dying to know who yesterday’s yawning kid was . . . click here. It’s free, but you have to register to read the story. If you didn’t get to see the clip (the server was overwhelmed), try this link. And for David Letterman’s afterword tying it all together . . . here. 2. THE THIRSTY JACKASS Forty-six years later and my brother still remembers this story – much better than I. It was a camel, not a human, he reminds me, and he was leading the jackass through the desert, in sort of a mentoring, ‘I know the desert’ role. The jackass kept asking for water; the camel kept advising patience. ‘Water, Camel, water!’ said the jackass. ‘Patience, Jackass, patience!’ said the camel. ‘Water, Camel, water!’ said the jackass. ‘Patience, Jackass, patience!’ said the camel. ‘Water, Camel, water!’ said the jackass. ‘Patience, Jackass, patience!’ said the camel. ‘Water, Camel, water!’ said the jackass. ‘Patience, Jackass, patience!’ said the camel. At which point (for those of you too busy to have clicked the link, Tuesday), my father finally broke in – I was 10, and did not know where my 14-year-old brother was headed with this story – demanding, ‘Get to the point, for crying out loud.’ To which my brother – already convulsed with laughter even as he blurted it out – replied, ‘Patience, Jackass, patience!’ (Sorry, but I felt it was important to correct the record.) 3. THE TEMPLETON RUSSIA FUND Suggested here 16 months ago at just under 20, it closed last night just over 46. TRF is a ‘closed-end’ fund, which means it can sell at a discount to the underlying value of the stocks it owns (specifically, a 9% discount 16 months ago) or, when people are excited by its prospects, a premium, as it does today (about 11% – you are paying about $1.11 for each dollar of Russian stocks it owns). I’m more keen on 90-cent dollars than paying $1.11 for a dollar. And because closed-end funds charge hefty annual management fees, a discount is probably deserved. (If $10,000 worth of Russian stocks are worth $10,000 . . . by definition . . . and you hope they might appreciate at, say, 10% or 12% a year . . . what are they worth if you have to pay 2% a year to the mutual fund company that manages them for you, nicking your hoped-for 10% to 8%?) That said, an 11% premium isn’t entirely wild, and I continue to think that, as a small corner of your portfolio, this bet on Russia can provide useful diversification. Maybe sell half and buy it back the next time there’s a major Russia crisis and/or the fund trades at a discount to net asset value? Click here for a site that provides lots of information on closed-end funds. At top left, you can enter a symbol like TRF and see the discount or premium at which it sells. Normally, unless you have a good reason, I wouldn’t buy a closed-end fund unless it’s selling at a significant discount. But does that mean you should definitely sell TRF, at its 11% premium (or IFN, the India Fund, at its 9% premium) to buy, say, GF, the New Germany Fund, at its 19% discount? All you need to know to answer that question is how the Russian, Indian and German stock markets will fare relative to each other over the coming years . . . how the ruble, mark and rupee will fare relative to each other over the same period . . . how the discounts and premiums of these funds will widen and contract . . . and how all that would add up compared, to, say, just keeping your money in a large jar in the kitchen (or, safer, but earning about as much, in a large jar down at the bank). Which is a long way of saying . . . who knows? THE GRAPHIC And now (after 2,000 unillustrated columns in this space) a graphic that someone sent me for your consideration. I’m not saying it’s this simple. But I do think it’s a perspective worth noting.
April Fun April 1, 2004February 25, 2017 BUBBLE WRAP FOR BUBBLE HEADS Turn the volume up and, to save time (an odd concept, under the circumstances), be sure to click ‘Manic Mode.’ . BEARS AGAIN James Karn: When you get tired of playing with the bears, try swinging at the penguins! ☞ My best shot was 207 yards. THIS OCCURRED BEFORE APRIL FOOL’S From the estimable Alan Light [quoting news from the Late Night web site]: ‘Monday night, David Letterman ran a clip of the President giving a speech March 20 in Orlando. Behind him stood a lad who was obviously bored silly. It is very funny. So funny, in fact, that CNN replayed the clip today during their broadcasts. But, but, but, the first time is was shown, CNN anchorwoman Daryn Kagan reported that the White House said the clip was a total fake, it was merely the Late Show having fun with their ability to edit and do TV tricks. Letterman immediately responded that what the CNN reporter said was an out-and-out lie. A couple of hours later, CNN anchor person Kyra Phillips reported that the kid was at the speech but not where the Late Show had him. Dave again makes the claim, ‘That’s an out and out absolute 100% lie. That kid was exactly where we said he was.’ CNN finally said it was a simple error and that there had been no call from the White House, which makes you wonder just how the folks at CNN think the news is supposed to work. Anyway, if you have Real Player, click here.’ ☞ Let the record show that Democrats can be just as boring as Republicans, so I do not suggest that there is any larger point here.